Jim Bisognani: March Madness Goes for the Gold!

March Madness is approaching quickly, and not just on the hardwoods. Gold — that ever-popular bellwether yellow metal — has been blazing a bold and impressive trajectory since the beginning of 2024. On Wednesday, March 6, gold spot eclipsed $2,150 in trading! Truly amazing.

This is a new record — albeit likely a temporary one — as this trumped the record set the day before. Yet whether a hedge against lower interest rates or safe haven against inflation, the ramifications for coindexters of more modest means who want to purchase US gold coins is significant... or is it?

Earlier this week, I fielded several calls and emails from fellow coindexters mostly "sounding the alarm" at the fast-rising prices of gold. Jerry from Dayton, Ohio said, "Well, I was just getting started with my US gold type last summer. Now, it looks like I'm going to be priced out of my budget." Jerry said he just wanted nice representatives of the Liberty and Indian Quarter Eagle, Half Eagle, Eagle and Double Eagle. "You know," he clarified, "nice, problem-free, high-grade circulated examples. XF stuff."

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Another collector, Janice from Boise, Idaho, had a similar lament. "I've been interested in coins since I was a kid, basically because of my dad and his collection," she said. "I really like gold coins — I guess all things gold, for that matter. But now it seems like I won't be able to afford to put together a basic type set of US gold coins like my dad had put together."

Janice went on to explain that her father had a complete US gold type set housed in one of those large black capital plastic holders. "Everything but $4 gold, and all in Choice Mint State. It is a beautiful set," she said. "I had really wanted to put together my own, starting with an Indian type set. I should have started sooner. Now, with gold racing to another planet, I don't think I'll be able to afford to budget the set in MS 63 as I had planned."

On the heels of these two conversations and several more of similar content, I was compelled to do a bit of research. I wanted to see and report just how much the record price of gold has done to jeopardize their respective plans of assembling sets, even a basic 4-piece US gold type set.

Since Jerry from the Buckeye State had just started his quest in building his gold set last year, I decided to base my research on exactly one year ago.

A Golden Opportunity

As I was gathering data for this exercise, I wasn't anticipating what I discovered. It was truly a surprise!

Although gold spot is effectively $300 more per ounce than it was last year, the price to assemble an Extremely Fine (XF) set has only risen about 2.36% for the four-piece Indian type set and a modest 6.29% for the four-piece Liberty type set. That's great news for a high-end circulated type set, one like Jerry from Dayton was afraid he would have to put on hold.

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For Janice, it's even better news. What's truly amazing is that the price for a Choice Uncirculated MS 63 Indian type set has dropped by 3.85% and that Liberty type set in like grade dropped by 6.31%! So Janice, you have even better news!

Yes, my fellow coindexters, it's true. Although gold spot has driven higher by 17% in the last calendar year, the price for our treasured MS 63 US gold type coins has actually declined. Certainly, the rising spot metal price and the tighter spreads make for buying Choice Uncirculated MS 63 US certified gold quite appealing, especially in light of the recent surge in gold spot prices.

Please see the charts below for a better look at the data I recovered from March 6, 2023, to March 6, 2024:

March 6, 2023 - Gold Spot $1,836

March 6, 2024 - Gold Spot $2,140

Another popular topic in my mailbag was advice for those wanting Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles. "Should I buy now or wait for a rollback in spot prices?" Well, since my Magic 8 Ball was never all that reliable ("Ask again later," it says!), I prefer to supply the facts. The percentage above melt for MS 63 $20 Saint-Gaudens today is 5.61% versus 17.05% one year ago. You can't hope for much tighter spreads than that, my friends. No Magic 8 Ball need be summoned here.

Further research reveals that, while gold spot is enjoying record levels, all common US gold type coins graded MS 61 to MS 65 are actually trading marginally lower than they were at this time last year. The lone exception is $20 Double Eagles. Both Liberty and Saint-Gaudens are trending up, again based primarily on the 17% uptick in bullion value, yet even then it's only a modest uptick. The biggest elevation targets MS 61s, which are trading up 8.84%.

As far as value is concerned, however, in my opinion, you could purchase a very choice MS 64 $20 Saint-Gaudens for a mere $75 more than the price of an average BU MS 61 $20 Saint-Gaudens, at the time of writing this.

For my fellow coindexters asking about acquiring a better US gold type coin, I have a suggestion. For me, one of the best buys in US gold type would be the $3 gold Princess. I always admired this coin's elegant design, and the odd denomination makes for a great conversation starter. The best news is that MS 63 type coins are actually 12% lower than this time last year.

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My First $20 Saint-Gaudens

Of course, as I wrap this up, gold spot has decided to move even higher. Oh well! I'm just glad that I was able to buy my 1907 $20 Saint-Gaudens at a good price; how about $77?

As I'm writing this, my mind races back to when I was on the prowl for my very own first $20 Saint. I was 15 and I can still remember saving up for that day. It took several months to get that amount of cash during the summer of 1972. It was my goal to trade some coins and work odd jobs to accumulate the necessary funding for this enterprise.

Prices were less volatile back then, and a few weeks or months wasn't going to change the status quo. Usually, any changes would be modest and come after the new installment of the Red Book was released. I had observed several possible coins for my collection at a local show, each trading in the $75-to-$80 range earlier that year, but I didn't have the money to make the move.

I recall that a few days before the big day came, I had asked my dad to take me to yet another coin show. This venue, I explained, was a bit larger, and I was sure I would find a $20 Saint. Dad knew that this was all I was talking about since school had let out in June, so he capitulated and took me to yet another Saturday show, this one in Manchester, New Hampshire.

When I entered that convention hall, the floor was much busier and there was much more buzz than at the local shows that I had attended previously. There must have been 100 tables or so. What an atmosphere! My heart was beating rapidly as I scanned the floor and took things in.

I soon became more acclimated to my surroundings. Perhaps I should have taken my time, but I came across the coin at the third table that I came across. It was a $20 Saint-Gaudens, housed in a black plastic Capital holder. I saw it gleaming at me, beckoning me toward the dealer's showcase. I asked to look at her, and the dealer obliged.

The Saint-Gaudens was the inaugural 1907 issue, so I pulled out my magnifier but never really closely examined the coin, as I was so excited that the Double Eagle was in my hand! I asked for the price and after the dealer quoted me $77, I am sure that I surprised him when I pulled out my wad of four $20 bills before the quote had hardly passed his lips.

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Yes, I still have the coin. Amazingly, it is still the only $20 gold coin in my personal collection. Over the nearly 52 years that I have owned this coin, she has acquired an even more lustrous and lovely honey-gold coloring. I have had a few others in my lifetime, but they have been either sold or traded away. Not this one... Hey, the 1907 is a great starting point, being the first year of issue as well as the No Motto variety.

Until next time, be safe and happy collecting!

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