A biased look at what is taking the pleasure out of coin collecting. 1 1

[zadok]

On 8/17/2021 at 5:14 PM, World Colonial said:

If I am going to properly respond to your posts, it would help if you would separate your replies into discrete thoughts.  I have difficulty reading what you write.

What's your definition of collector?

You're telling me there are 10MM to 15MM collectors but in your last post told me I am including those completing folders out of pocket change?  Where is the evidence there are anywhere near this number ("active") paying any premium?  If there were, the prices of most 20th century US coinage would be much higher, proportionately.  

I have estimated 2MM in my posts.  It's a guess but see no basis to believe there are anywhere near 10MM, unless it includes casual collectors who almost exclusively or entirely collect out of pocket change.  The US Mint only sells about 1MM proof and mint sets annually now.

The last time I checked, eBay didn't even have 1MM coin listings, worldwide.  I see no basis to believe 1MM US based coin collectors are buying from them with any frequency, if at all.

Heritage's website claims 1MM registered users.  It doesn't break out number of coin buyers.  Volume isn't clear to me either.  2019 report states $181MM for US auctions, $59MM for world and ancients (not clear if only auctions), and no breakout of direct US coin sales.  Market share is claimed at 55%.  Those buying at least one coin from an auction firm each year (my proxy for "regular") could be 100K but don't believe anywhere near 500K.

Have no idea about club members.  I checked a few states in the ANA directory: PA, CA and GA (where I live).  Not sure all clubs are listed but if it's close to being comprehensive and accurate, doesn't seem to approach anywhere near 100K either.  I live in ATL which has a population of 6MM and the ANA data indicates in the hundreds at most.  Sure, some may consider it a numismatic wasteland but not compared to most of the country.

Total expenditures of $18B sounds reasonable but much of it is metal substitutes: NCLT, common pre-1933 US gold, common Morgan and Peace dollars, and world gold.  Anecdotally, I conclude that those who mostly buy this coinage aren't spending much of their budget on other coins.

Lastly, if you have read my posts in the past, my comments on here haven't ever claimed US collecting is "in trouble" or the collector base is shrinking.  I have stated it's disproportionately financially motivated because that's the evidence I see, everywhere.

im truly sorry that my train of thoughts present a challenge to be understood...bit late in my life to change my manner of expressing myself...i wasnt trying to participate in a debate...my brief assertions of numbers were all obtained just by referencing simple requests for info from surveys online from the sources mentioned, i.e. the govt conducted such an economical survey a few years back, heritage, gc, stacks bowers, et al...ebay stated such a number, a few financial surveys likewise....i really dont wish to consume extreme amounts of forum space nor waking hours to dispute an assumption that neither of us can prove nor disprove, my basic point is that i take exception to ur premise that the hobby is diminishing when i observe the contrary...there is little to be gained from the two of us going back n forth on n issue no one cares about anyway, so ill just lv it at we agree to disagree n avoid this subjective issue in the future...n the thread op was upset that we were not talking bout whatever his point was anyway...

[GoldFinger1969]

Some of those trends are inevitable.  We can't simply go back to the days of the 1960's when you could buy Double Eagles for $75 at your LCS and coin shows were the only way to see rare coins pre-internet.

Some of the problems cited above have their own solutions ("Every problem has its own solution, Mr. Arnold" -- The Wonder Years).  We may not meet in person at clubs or shows or the LCS....but we converse alot online and show pictures of our wins and purchases.

[Henri Charriere]

@zadok With all due respect to the OP, it may come as somewhat of a surprise to you to learn that folks like me appreciate reading comments from the membership-at-large, whether I personally agree with them or not. Besides, we are obliged to accept what the OP has presented here represents a true, in substance, compilation of member comments. 🐓

[zadok]

On 8/17/2021 at 10:34 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

@zadok With all due respect to the OP, it may come as somewhat of a surprise to you to learn that folks like me appreciate reading comments from the membership-at-large, whether I personally agree with them or not. Besides, we are obliged to accept what the OP has presented here represents a true, in substance, compilation of member comments. 🐓

none of the definitions of oblige reflects anything i feel in regard to the contents or reasons for this particular thread...nor do i agree with the substance of the compilations....

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/17/2021 at 7:19 PM, zadok said:

...., my basic point is that i take exception to ur premise that the hobby is diminishing when i observe the contrary...

There are certain segments of the hobby that are thriving and flourishing, but it would not be inaccurate to say the hobby, as a whole, is in decline. It would seem to me you have been around long enough to know that. Unfortunately, in the near total absence of brick-and-morters, there is very little in the way of circulating coins to pique the interest of your average younger person. And the hobby remains top-heavy with aging, older collectors, like me.

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/17/2021 at 10:51 PM, zadok said:

none of the definitions of oblige reflects anything i feel in regard to the contents or reasons for this particular thread...nor do i agree with the substance of the compilations....

Fair enough. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/16/2021 at 11:30 AM, VKurtB said:

and I can’t even BEGIN to describe how much I detest doing business over the Internet. 

Easy for you to say. You don't collect (you know what).  And if it weren't for the internet, I never would have known they existed.  🐓

[Mohawk]

I, too, heavily rely on the Internet for what I collect.  I have to buy a lot of my Faustinas from Europe.  It's just the reality of it.  When you're an ancient collector with as narrow and specialized of a focus as I have living in the Finger Lakes Region of NY State, you need the Internet to have any hope in hell of completing your collecting goals.

Edited August 18, 2021 by Mohawk

[Henri Charriere]

@RWB One of the more potent coin-dictments to emerge from deep in the heart of Texas in recent years, some 22 counts, with ready applicability to a number of federal jurisdictions throughout the land.

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2021 at 7:19 PM, zadok said:

im truly sorry that my train of thoughts present a challenge to be understood...bit late in my life to change my manner of expressing myself...i wasnt trying to participate in a debate...my brief assertions of numbers were all obtained just by referencing simple requests for info from surveys online from the sources mentioned, i.e. the govt conducted such an economical survey a few years back, heritage, gc, stacks bowers, et al...ebay stated such a number, a few financial surveys likewise....i really dont wish to consume extreme amounts of forum space nor waking hours to dispute an assumption that neither of us can prove nor disprove, my basic point is that i take exception to ur premise that the hobby is diminishing when i observe the contrary...there is little to be gained from the two of us going back n forth on n issue no one cares about anyway, so ill just lv it at we agree to disagree n avoid this subjective issue in the future...n the thread op was upset that we were not talking bout whatever his point was anyway...

I didn't take exception to your reply.

Debates are fine.  That's the purpose of this forum, as far as I am concerned.

It doesn't bother me either than we went off topic.

I'm also ok if you disagree with me.  No problem.

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2021 at 10:52 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

There are certain segments of the hobby that are thriving and flourishing, but it would not be inaccurate to say the hobby, as a whole, is in decline. 

I don't believe anyone actually knows one way or the other. 

I believe it's declining for the coins most US collectors predominantly collected half a century ago.  The prices of Lincoln cent key dates are anecdotal evidence of that.  Concurrently, I believe interest in previously limited access segments (mostly world, ancient, and exonumia) is greater than ever, in the US.

One of the primary points I have made which is very unpopular is that the inflated prices of what are frequently actually common coins aren't representative of increased interest in collecting.  Same thing for NCLT.  It's predominantly financialization and marketing.

When a coin sells for high prices that has always sold for high prices, we can reasonably infer it's mostly about collecting.

When a coin which used to sell for relatively nominal prices (opinions will vary on the amount) sells for four figures or more, I call it mostly or entirely financialization and marketing.  It's a culture change but collectors didn't collective wake up one day and miraculously experience an epiphany where they suddenly realized the supposed merits while their predecessors in the past operated in ignorance.

Collectors outside the US overwhelmingly view collecting more closely to 60's US culture.  It isn't that they are less "sophisticated".  It's that their collecting has not been financialized.

On 8/17/2021 at 10:52 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Unfortunately, in the near total absence of brick-and-morters, there is very little in the way of circulating coins to pique the interest of your average younger person. 

The reduced physical footprint (which includes B&M) is definitely a factor.  

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:00 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Some of those trends are inevitable.  We can't simply go back to the days of the 1960's when you could buy Double Eagles for $75 at your LCS and coin shows were the only way to see rare coins pre-internet.

These examples are external factors which impact the hobby.  It's an example but I don't think the price of DE really makes much difference to most collectors since the price has always been high for the collectible merits. The internet is a good thing for collecting but I concurrently infer the reduced physical footprint makes it less visible to the non-collector.  This is an inference, not "fact".

I see an inflated price level (the one we have now) which I don't believe is supported by anywhere near as much interest in actual collecting as the consensus claims or wants everyone to believe.  That's where I know many (probably most) disagree with me.  The reason they do is because to question this premise is to concurrently bring into question the future viability of current industry business model and with it, the sustainability of the "investment" collectors have in their collection.  

[RWB]

On 8/17/2021 at 10:34 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

@zadok With all due respect to the OP, it may come as somewhat of a surprise to you to learn that folks like me appreciate reading comments from the membership-at-large, whether I personally agree with them or not. Besides, we are obliged to accept what the OP has presented here represents a true, in substance, compilation of member comments. 🐓

They are a snapshot of opinion, selected without rigorous criteria... The OP.

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/18/2021 at 10:20 AM, RWB said:

They are a snapshot of opinion, selected without rigorous criteria... The OP.

Indubitably.  🐓

[Conder101]

On 8/17/2021 at 10:52 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

And the hobby remains top-heavy with aging, older collectors, like me.

The hobby has always been top heavy with aging older collectors going back at least 150 years.

[RWB]

On 8/18/2021 at 8:54 PM, Conder101 said:

The hobby has always been top heavy with aging older collectors going back at least 150 years.

What  I see in carefully reading  letters descriptions, etc. from the 1840-1870 (as far as I've gotten) is that only the people we recognize as big name collectors were older men. They had vast collections many of which were later sold at auction. But the ordinary to medium advanced collector was young - 20s - looking for coins from circulation and buying coins to fill holes in set of obsolete coinage and proof sets. Several thousand silver/minor sets were sold each year and they did not mostly go to Old Folks. The present top-heavy situation is more likely a result of post-WW II kids collecting coins, bubble gum cards, and rocks. Now they are old, and dying off.

As with the economy in general, it is the middle class with disposable income that drives forward. When that shrinks, everything else shrinks.

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/18/2021 at 9:12 PM, RWB said:

The present top-heavy situation is more likely a result of post-WW II kids collecting coins, bubble gum cards, and rocks. Now they are old, and dying off.

As with the economy in general, it is the middle class with disposable income that drives forward. When that shrinks, everything else shrinks.

Exactly. You hit that nail squarely on the head. . 

[Numismatic, A.A.S.]

On 8/17/2021 at 6:06 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

I sense an undercurrent of discontent in your compendium, lovingly compiled over time, much of which does not appear to have been addressed, much less acknowledged, by the industry at large.  These are a comprehensive laundry list of symptoms in support of a diagnosis. All the warning signs are there, warts and all, for all to see.  The only question is whether or not enough of the Golden Goose remains to enjoy a revival since the hobby's heyday many decades ago.

I could just as easily find 24 positive comments compiled the same way. PMA = Positive Mind Attitude

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:06 AM, Numismatic, A.A.S. said:

I could just as easily find 24 positive comments compiled the same way. PMA = Positive Mind Attitude

Actually, no, you couldn't. This loose thread is titled: "A biased look at what is taking the pleasure out of coin collecting." (Emphasis mine) Any such comments you compile would be  . Capeche?

[World Colonial]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:06 AM, Numismatic, A.A.S. said:

I could just as easily find 24 positive comments compiled the same way. PMA = Positive Mind Attitude

Many of the items in the OP are duplicative, not really different.

I can think of three major positives since I first started collecting in 1975:

One: The internet makes it much easier for any (prospective) collector to find what they want, regardless of their specialty.  

Two:  More information available than ever before, much of it good but not all of it accurate.

Three: For coins which are actually scarce which is a low to very low minority, the higher price level provides more incentive for whoever owns it to offer it for sale, making it more available than it otherwise likely would be.

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:34 AM, World Colonial said:

Many of the items in the OP are duplicative, not really different.

I can think of three major positives since I first started collecting in 1975:

One: The internet makes it much easier for any (prospective) collector to find what they want, regardless of their specialty.  

Two:  More information available than ever before, much of it good but not all of it accurate.

Three: For coins which are actually scarce which is a low to very low minority, the higher price level provides more incentive for whoever owns it to offer it for sale, making it more available than it otherwise likely would be.

I am going to refer to this, henceforth, as "W.C.'s Universal Lamentation." I myself was afflicted with "Roostermania" and others continue to endure a course of collection that mimics the "Partrick Syndrome," which typically starts out innocently enough as collection before manifesting itself as compulsive obsession over which the former collector is unable to exercise any control. The only known cure for this aberration is filling every known space with high-quality merchandise until complete... Great 👍 stuff!

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/18/2021 at 8:18 AM, World Colonial said:

I didn't take exception to your reply.  Debates are fine.  That's the purpose of this forum, as far as I am concerned. It doesn't bother me either than we went off topic. I'm also ok if you disagree with me.  No problem. 

In the 1960's, the only information we would get on coins would be from calling fellow collectors....going to the LCS and chewing the ear off the owner.....going to a local coin club or coin show.

The internet has some bad actors, but by and large it keeps many of us engaged.  I doubt I would be a serious collector without what I have learned about numismatics and gold coins and Saints/Liberty's/etc. from the internet and more seasoned pros. 

[World Colonial]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:57 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

In the 1960's, the only information we would get on coins would be from calling fellow collectors....going to the LCS and chewing the ear off the owner.....going to a local coin club or coin show.

The internet has some bad actors, but by and large it keeps many of us engaged.  I doubt I would be a serious collector without what I have learned about numismatics and gold coins and Saints/Liberty's/etc. from the internet and more seasoned pros. 

Analyzing myself, the internet seems to have accentuated my cynicism.  When I first moved back to the US in 1975 at age 10, I was always trying to go to my favorite local coin shop, even though I mostly didn't have any money to buy anything most of the time.

Now, I have little to no interest in the coins I used to like or want to buy, which were US 19th century mid circulated type (like bust halves and liberty seated).  A few yes but find it too expensive for what it is as a collectible.  It isn't interesting to me because I can buy any of it any day of the week, I'd never pay current prices for it as a collectible and with limited exceptions, don't buy coins for "investment".  The only exception I ever made was when the South Africa Union series was my primary interest.  I'd buy the ZAR series ungraded and "flip it" but that's because I knew I could make multiples of my money off of it right then.  It was virtually "guaranteed" money while it lasted.

The one thing I dislike most is how the higher price level reduces what I can buy for my budget.  My financial resources have increased noticeably since 1998, but I have not and I'm not about to increase my budget equivalently.  Reading coin forums, most others who observe the same thing seem to think it's "fantastic".  I think it totally "sucks".

As a few examples, I own a PCGS MS-64 1894 MO Mexico 8R.  It was one of the first coins I bought when I resumed collecting in 1998 for $45 from a World Coin Universe auction.  It's quite nice but common and don't believe it should be worth what Stacks will get for the four they have up for auction right now which is going to be $300 to $400+ for MS-63 and MS-64s.

Heritage also has an 1870 Boliviano NGC MS-66 selling tonight with a current bid of $2160 with BP.  That's totally nuts.  It's not common but not rare either, except for the holder label.  I have an MS-64 which cost me $120 in 2005.  It's untoned and not as nice but maybe it's worth $300 to $500 which I think is too much also.

The explanation for these prices?  The plastic, plain and simple, even for a Bolivian coin.  Both are crowns but what I'd describe as "collector" coins.

[Henri Charriere]

With @RWB's indulgence, as this is off-topic, buying foreign coins directly, at higher prices, with no iron-clad guarantee the item will arrive without incident or complication, is not a risk your average collector is willing to assume.

[World Colonial]

On 8/19/2021 at 12:24 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

With @RWB's indulgence, as this is off-topic, buying foreign coins directly, at higher prices, with no iron-clad guarantee the item will arrive without incident or complication, is not a risk your average collector is willing to assume.

I don't see this as much of a problem for most US collectors but I agree with you. Coin forums indicate that most spending "noticeable" amounts either prefer or insist direction inspection first too.

Most everything seems to be available for sale within the US.  I recall not receiving a coin from a foreign seller once, Noble numismatics in Australia.  They ignored me so I filed a chargeback.  The coin arrived about six months later, so I sent it back to them.

[VKurtB]

On 8/18/2021 at 7:54 PM, Conder101 said:

The hobby has always been top heavy with aging older collectors going back at least 150 years.

It’s a demographic truth that keeps the material churning, and the commission earners fed.

[RWB]

Seem to be some who collect "Lindbergh Quarters," rather than accept potential for improvement.

Edited August 19, 2021 by RWB

[Henri Charriere]

@RWB I do know Charles Augustus Lindbergh expressed pro-Nazi proclivities, for which he was formally censured/reprimanded, but I refuse to believe Dr. Seuss would "comment" politically via cartoon.  😉

[RWB]

In this instance, the internet has a lot of material about "Dr Seuss" and his WW-II cartoons and related materials.

[Henri Charriere]

[He was quoted as saying he was "subversive as hell" and Wikipedia allows that he was, in part, a "political cartoonist" (and not born in Russia as my mother had led me to believe). Also, unbeknownst to me, his last name, the moniker Seuss, was pronounced like "voice." I clearly stand corrected.]