Interesting article/blog on silver availability 1 1

[Zebo]

What do you think?

Former Prime Minister David Cameron breaks silence about his links to scandal-hit Greensill Capital, the squeeze on silver continues to affect global mints and their supply chains, and the UK takes another step towards normality as government restrictions are relaxed.

Ex-Prime Minister David Cameron broke his 30-day silence over his political lobbying on behalf of Greensill Capital which collapsed last month. In his statement, Cameron admitted he should have acted differently and that "there are lessons to be learned". The former PM has faced scrutiny over efforts to gain access to the coronavirus loan scheme on behalf of Greensill which filed for insolvency on the 8th March this year.  Credit Suisse have estimated that the collapse could cost its investors up to $3 billion in losses. This, and losses associated with Archegos Capital Management have led to resignations of Credit Suisse's chief risk and compliance officer, and head of investment banking.

Global mints face continuing pressure as increased demand for physical silver has led to problems in fulfilling their orders on time. In the United States, federal statutes limit the US Mint from paying more than the "average world price", which means it can not pay any more than the price on "paper gold" markets like the New York COMEX or the LBMA. In Australia, The Perth Mint has sold out of most of its investment products although the Mint's CEO Richard Hayes has confirmed they still have around 60 tonnes in the vault and the "shortage" is for particular products like coins. Even in Mexico, Banco Azteca has said it can no longer purchase 1 oz silver Libertad coins from the Mexican Mint and instead has to rely on customers selling Libertads to them.

Here in England, Monday saw many government restrictions lifted which allowed outdoor dining and several other businesses deemed "non-essential", including hairdressers, gyms and swimming pools to reopen. While great news to many people, weather conditions in many parts of the country meant that not all businesses were able to open as a spring cold snap led to snowfall across southern England and Wales. However, the new worry for market analysts as sectors of the economy begin to reopen is inflation expectations, with former Bank of England governor Mervyn King highlighting the dangers of ballooning central bank balance sheets. Such an environment has historically be beneficial for precious metals such as gold and silver, where demand has stayed strong since early 2020.

[Henri Charriere]

For those of us who are neither investors nor collectors but essentially rudderless accumulators, this news is of no consequence.  I have some silver.  I have some gold.  I am only curious to know what member World Colonial makes of all this as his rather direct insights both alarm and delight in matter-of-fact, take-it-or-leave-it, but open-to-suggestion fashion.  I commend Zebo for bringing this to our attention. 

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm not an expert on metals pricing like bonds/stocks....but if there is this much demand for silver, then the market price should rise from the current ~ $25.

[Coinbuf]

Quite a few folks are thinking that inflation will rise in the very near future, some think rapidly.   This has some wanting to own PM's as in the past this strategy has been used as a hedge against inflation concerns.  I do not know if those concerns are valid or if in this situation PM's will provide that same hedge effect or not, but it does seem to be fueling a desire to buy and own PM's.

[Woods020]

It is funny to me that demand is high, supply is short-ish, but the spot price isn’t doing a whole lot. It’s been within a few bucks one way or another a while now. But coin silver seems to be demanding a premium for sure. I was talking to a local guy that has a booth at a local flea market, and he said he is getting $40 for the worst Morgan’s he has. I’ve got a lot I would be happy to sell for that!

[GoldFinger1969]

17 minutes ago, Coinbuf said:

Quite a few folks are thinking that inflation will rise in the very near future, some think rapidly.   This has some wanting to own PM's as in the past this strategy has been used as a hedge against inflation concerns.  I do not know if those concerns are valid or if in this situation PM's will provide that same hedge effect or not, but it does seem to be fueling a desire to buy and own PM's.

The 10-year TIPs breakeven is now back to 2016 levels at about 2.5%.  If that's the case, then the 10-year Treasury bond is going alot higher from the current levels under 2%....at leasst closer to 3%.

That's a problem for stocks but unless inflation CONTINUES it might depress economic activity and/or inflation and/or PM prices.

[GoldFinger1969]

2 minutes ago, Woods020 said:

It is funny to me that demand is high, supply is short-ish, but the spot price isn’t doing a whole lot. It’s been within a few bucks one way or another a while now. But coin silver seems to be demanding a premium for sure. I was talking to a local guy that has a booth at a local flea market, and he said he is getting $40 for the worst Morgan’s he has. I’ve got a lot I would be happy to sell for that!

Interesting.....yes, if the normal premium on ASEs is $1-$3, what is it today ?  Closer to $7-$10 ?

[Woods020]

2 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Interesting.....yes, if the normal premium on ASEs is $1-$3, what is it today ?  Closer to $7-$10 ?

Well if the mints are seeing a squeeze in supply I’m sure their products will see a price increase. Especially if they cut output since as the original posts says they can’t pay a premium for silver. I bet those Australian pieces that are sold out at the Perth mint are seeing significant price increases. ASEs have such a cult following that if they see a supply shortfall I bet the prices go up quickly. Add in speculation and who knows. 

[RWB]

Please -- do not confuse industrial demand with speculative demand.

[Henri Charriere]

The truth is far more complex. The news media have a story for every uptick and downtick and more often than not contradict themselves. Ask someone, anyone, to explain the run-up in gold and twenty-five people (especially the eternal optimists stricken with the gold bug) will give you twenty-five different answers. There are too many variables to consider: industrial demand, speculative demand, political instability, interest rates, finite resources, etc.  

The very same experts who insist precious metals will skyrocket imminently cannot tell you what tomorrow's winning three-digit lottery number will be, why the Martingale system in roulette is unsustainable and who this year's Triple Crown winner will be.

My strategy with coins is simple.  Strive to compile the very best collection possible for a specific series. It poses enough of a challenge to maintain my interest and belief my goal is attainable.

[Woods020]

Agreed. Different but potentially both at play here. 
 

Industrial Demand = mints needing silver for coinage. If they can not find it at “average world price” in sufficient quantity based on rising prices then their industrial demand for silver at real world price is more than supply at real world value. 
 

Speculative demand = investors speculating on inflation or even preppers wanting physical silver for barter. This speculation, if it continues at current levels, could drive the price of silver above the price point for the mints. 
 

That in turn could impact supply of minted coinage and/or bullion, which would cause greater demand than supply. Also short term shortages may exist in supply based on unforecasted demand based on current economic environment. More people buying silver than anticipated. 

[Woods020]

Write it down Quintus, I fully agree with you. I’m by no means saying silver will skyrocket. I’m simply pointing out speculation and economic uncertainty lead to irrational behaviors (or potentially highly rational if it turned out to be right). So it could very well be if the current speculation continues it leads to even higher prices before the bubble would burst. 

Edited April 15, 2021 by Woods020

[cladking]

The markets are rigged and no market is more rigged than silver.  So long as the status quo is maintained the bankers can make the silver price dance to their tune.  

The problem is the status quo is breaking down. It had to happen eventually because the artificially low silver prices and the increasing demand were necessarily going to come to a head in the long run.  It's happening now because government is spending money like a drunken sailor who has just shot himself in both knees.   We've had severe systemic problems for several years with LTCM and the nickel default on LME being the more obvious symptoms.  Since the '87 collapse markets have been choreographed and wholly unpredictable.   Now the situation is people want metal and are finding no sellers.  This will result in metal being diverted from industry to fill this demand by means of increasing numbers of contracts standing for delivery.   This will reduce supply where it counts and cause higher prices.  Indeed, with BoA and many shorts all competing with industrial users and the general public to obtain silver there is a buying panic of biblical proportions on the horizon.  

Sell!!!

Just as coins go to the highest bidder so does everything else.  Right now the public all the world is the highest bidder and they don't want more paper.  

If this rattles the bond markets there could be real fireworks.  

[cladking]

3 minutes ago, cladking said:

 

Sell!!!

 

It is imperative to do the opposite what everyone else does especially in a panic.   

In this case as silver is diverted from the supply chain and prices escalate refineries will start backing up and converting thousands of years of coinage into 1000 OZ bars.  There's enough of this metal to eventually stop the run up in price which will be followed by a collapse.   The silver exists but isn't available at the current price.  

The real problem is still decades in the future when the metal won't exist in sufficient quantity for all the new industrial demand.  

Sell as the price moves higher and buy back after the collapse.    

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2021 at 4:07 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

For those of us who are neither investors nor collectors but essentially rudderless accumulators, this news is of no consequence.  I have some silver.  I have some gold.  I am only curious to know what member World Colonial makes of all this as his rather direct insights both alarm and delight in matter-of-fact, take-it-or-leave-it, but open-to-suggestion fashion.  I commend Zebo for bringing this to our attention. 

Nothing the upcoming end of the financial asset levitation act won't resolve on the supply side.  I have admitted that I have been wrong on the timing on the never ending financial mania many times but it's coming because there is no free lunch in life.

I expect enough metal accumulators to turn into forced sellers later.  It's not like most metal advocates have much economic staying power.  (They are mostly weak hands.  Middle class with limited savings and dependent upon their job and artificially cheap credit.)  What I do not know is whether there is going to be another 1980 or 2011 spike first.

As for much higher inflation, that's what practically everybody expects.  To this ;point, the decision to "print" by central banks since 2008 and more recently provide "helicopter money" with "stimulus" has been a painless one.  Economic illiterates (most of the public and the brain dead politicians they elect) seem to believe they have found the perpetual "money tree".  As for economists, central bankers and the financial community, I'm not sure what most of them believe.  Most of them seem to be dumb enough to believe it to but maybe they aren't and act like it out of expediency.

My expectation?  When the current path doesn't seem free anymore, my prediction remains the same.  Those with the most influence will choose to preserve their own wealth and maintain the empire by throwing most of the public "under the bus". They aren't about to "print to infinity" out of misplaced altruism or if the public wants it.

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2021 at 11:43 PM, cladking said:

The markets are rigged and no market is more rigged than silver.  So long as the status quo is maintained the bankers can make the silver price dance to their tune.  

Take a look at the relative value of silver versus other things.  Is it really that cheap compared to houses? Cars? A barrel of oil?  Most things people have to buy?

I have been hearing the "manipulation" claim for several decades.  If it were actually true and it was that underpriced, there shouldn't be now and should not have been at any time a single ounce to be bought.  That's what happens in a freely traded market with price control attempts.

There has been nothing stopping anyone (including "metal bugs") from buying up every available ounce on the open market to force the "paper" price much higher.  Why didn't it happen?  The logical explanation is that these people are irrelevant as the buyer of last resort.

On 4/14/2021 at 11:43 PM, cladking said:

Now the situation is people want metal and are finding no sellers.  This will result in metal being diverted from industry to fill this demand by means of increasing numbers of contracts standing for delivery.   

One reason there aren't many sellers is because physical silver is a lot less liquid than it typically has been.  The current liquidity is absolutely terrible.  The spreads (in dollars) are unprecedented. 

The supply would certainly increase somewhat if physical buyers (like coin dealers) would raise their bids somewhat which they should be able to do since retail demand is supposed to be so strong .  That's what normally happens in any actually liquid market.  Not sure why they have not, unless they don't or can't hedge effectively.  And if they don't, hedge a big price decline through a wider bid-ask spread.

On 4/14/2021 at 11:43 PM, cladking said:

Indeed, with BoA and many shorts all competing with industrial users and the general public to obtain silver there is a buying panic of biblical proportions on the horizon.  

To my knowledge, financial institutions aren't necessarily shorting for their own account.  They are mostly acting as an intermediary.  Some of the short interest (in any commodity) is producers selling their production forward.  There is nothing nefarious in short interest.  By definition, for every short, there has to be a long.  Nobody can take a long or short position without someone taking the other side of the trade.  Increased short interest does not automatically suppress the price.

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2021 at 11:08 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

The truth is far more complex. The news media have a story for every uptick and downtick and more often than not contradict themselves. Ask someone, anyone, to explain the run-up in gold and twenty-five people (especially the eternal optimists stricken with the gold bug) will give you twenty-five different answers. There are too many variables to consider: industrial demand, speculative demand, political instability, interest rates, finite resources, etc.  

The very same experts who insist precious metals will skyrocket imminently cannot tell you what tomorrow's winning three-digit lottery number will be, why the Martingale system in roulette is unsustainable and who this year's Triple Crown winner will be.

It's psychology, not the cause-effect most claim to believe.

[World Colonial]

On 4/14/2021 at 11:52 PM, cladking said:

It is imperative to do the opposite what everyone else does especially in a panic.   

In this case as silver is diverted from the supply chain and prices escalate refineries will start backing up and converting thousands of years of coinage into 1000 OZ bars.  There's enough of this metal to eventually stop the run up in price which will be followed by a collapse.   The silver exists but isn't available at the current price.  

I agree with you here, with the qualifications I added in my prior replies. 

For one, there would be more supply if the spread wasn't an insane 20% to 25% right now.  If someone buys, they have to hold as if they don't, they might as well incinerate their savings.  The risk reward proposition as a retail buyer isn't that great due to the buy-sell spread.  This is presumably the primary reason most opt to buy the "paper" metal.

Edited April 17, 2021 by World Colonial

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/14/2021 at 11:43 PM, cladking said:

The markets are rigged and no market is more rigged than silver.  So long as the status quo is maintained the bankers can make the silver price dance to their tune.  

Rigged Market = One That Won't Do What I Want It To Do 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

To my knowledge, financial institutions aren't necessarily shorting for their own account.  They are mostly acting as an intermediary.  Some of the short interest (in any commodity) is producers selling their production forward.  There is nothing nefarious in short interest.  By definition, for every short, there has to be a long.  Nobody can take a long or short position without someone taking the other side of the trade.  Increased short interest does not automatically suppress the price.

Anybody who thinks that banks are speculating long or short on precious metals prices with the Fed, OCC, Treasury, FDIC, and state regulators all looking at them.....

[RWB]

On 4/14/2021 at 11:43 PM, cladking said:

with BoA and many shorts all competing with industrial users and the general public to obtain silver there is a buying panic of biblical proportions on the horizon. 

A couple of brief thoughts. 1) the general public does not buy and sell silver, or any other commodity; 2) industrial users of commodities want to maintain their material flow and sources, plus protect anticipated future need - this is all outside the "spot" and other Fido markets; 3) "biblical proportions" refers to a tiny area in the Middle East roughly between Babylon and Thebes -- not something vast and all encompassing.

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Anybody who thinks that banks are speculating long or short on precious metals prices with the Fed, OCC, Treasury, FDIC, and state regulators all looking at them.....

I don't know what these agencies would say about it as I have not talked to anyone responsible for direct supervision at one of these firms and they aren't allowed to discuss specifics anyway.

What was generally reported when the financial system nearly blew up in 2008, these firms had all kinds of garbage on their balance sheets.  "Level 2" and "level 3" assets which I would classify as less liquid and mostly riskier than any equally leveraged position in futures.  I doubt it's much better now.

IMO, the regulators are attempting to keep the financial system from falling apart but equally more interested in hiding the true financial condition of "troubled institutions" than telling the public the truth.

Ultimately, they are going to fail as moral hazard cannot successfully be regulated forever.

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Rigged Market = One That Won't Do What I Want It To Do 

 

That pretty much sums it up.

Best I can deduce, a portion of the "metal bugs" have concluded that because what is actually mostly credit expansion which they call "printing" doesn't result in their expected outcome, it has to be manipulation.  After all, they cannot possibly be wrong, so there has to be some dastardly conspiracy which has cheated them out of their deserved windfall.

The current gold price doesn't make any difference either.  Gold has increased what,  40 fold since 1971 when convertibility was suspended?  It isn't remotely cheap versus other commodities (historically overpriced) and not cheap versus hardly anything else either, but it still makes sense that silver should be equally overpriced.  The gold-silver ratio must conform to the 16-1 historical ratio (arbitrarily set by government) and failure to do so is also a sign of manipulation.

[GoldFinger1969]

52 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

I don't know what these agencies would say about it as I have not talked to anyone responsible for direct supervision at one of these firms and they aren't allowed to discuss specifics anyway. What was generally reported when the financial system nearly blew up in 2008, these firms had all kinds of garbage on their balance sheets.  "Level 2" and "level 3" assets which I would classify as less liquid and mostly riskier than any equally leveraged position in futures.  I doubt it's much better now.IMO, the regulators are attempting to keep the financial system from falling apart but equally more interested  in hiding the true financial condition of "troubled institutions" than telling the public the truth.Ultimately, they are going to fail as moral hazard cannot successfully be regulated forever.

U.S. banks are rock-solid.  I've worked for some foreign banks -- they are on life-support.  U.S. banking system is the gold standard for banks.    Look at who got burned by Archegos.

Level 2 and 3 assets are much much lower.  Leverage and risk-capital levels have changed dramatically.  Banks were levered 30:1 on average in 2007.  Today, that leverage is closer to 10:1.....HUGE difference.

[World Colonial]

44 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

U.S. banks are rock-solid.  I've worked for some foreign banks -- they are on life-support.  U.S. banking system is the gold standard for banks.    Look at who got burned by Archegos.

Level 2 and 3 assets are much much lower.  Leverage and risk-capital levels have changed dramatically.  Banks were levered 30:1 on average in 2007.  Today, that leverage is closer to 10:1.....HUGE difference.

My definition of "rock solid" is a lot different than yours but that's ok.

Balance sheets and capital only appear to be "rock solid" since the underlying assets are inflated by the credit bubble.  As an example, issuing an 80/20 mortgage in today's residential real estate market at bubble level prices is hardly conservative lending and a "quality asset".

Credit quality in the aggregate is the lowest, ever.  There is more debt than ever before and measured by either GDP or the value of underlying real collateral, the economy has never been more leveraged than it is now.  Whatever risk has been (apparently) reduced in the banking system has just been transferred somewhere else in the financial system.  It hasn't gone away.  Government debt, corporate debt and consumer debt, most of it is actually low quality, only sustainable by a substantially fake economy, bubble level prices and the loosest monetary policy ever.

To give the most obvious example, US government interest rates in recent years have been the lowest in history.  Concurrently, US government credit quality is arguably the worst since the Civil War and if not, certainly since WWII.  Take a look at corporate balance sheets of a company like UPS.  It used to be AAA (which doesn't mean much anyway) but now it's leveraged to the gills.  I'd call it and most of the big companies junk credits.

It should be evident that any attempt to "normalize" monetary policy (measured by interest rates and central bank balance sheets) and (US) government deficits (as a % of GDP) to pre-2008 levels will collapse the economy and financial system  into a deflationary chasm.   

The economy and financial markets are "sick", it isn't just COVID, and that's partly why we see the current government policy response. COVID and the policy response has weakened both but neither were remotely in decent shape in February 2020.

If anyone wants to get an idea of a conservative capital methodology, take a look at the SafeWealth Group's Institutional Survivability Indicator (ISI) rating system.  It's been about a decade since I looked at it but at that time, a bank like JP Morgan was a "4" on a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 being highest.

[GoldFinger1969]

12 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

My definition of "rock solid" is a lot different than yours but that's ok.

Balance sheets and capital only appear to be "rock solid" since the underlying assets are inflated by the credit bubble.  As an example, issuing an 80/20 mortgage in today's residential real estate market at bubble level prices is hardly conservative lending and a "quality asset".

But you can't stop doing business at times because you "think" (housing) prices are too high.  You can only require more downpayment and/or tighten underwriting standards.

12 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Credit quality in the aggregate is the lowest, ever.  There is more debt than ever before and measured by either GDP or the value of underlying real collateral, the economy has never been more leveraged than it is now.  Whatever risk has been (apparently) reduced in the banking system has just been transferred somewhere else in the financial system.  It hasn't gone away.  Government debt, corporate debt and consumer debt, most of it is actually low quality, only sustainable by a substantially fake economy, bubble level prices and the loosest monetary policy ever.

There are ALWAYS risks in an economy.  After WW II, investors expected the stock market to fall back to 1930's levels throughout the 1940's and 1950's.

Government debt is high, but consumer and corporate debt is very manageable.  Check out Pages 45 and beyond:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

 

[Woods020]

World colonial makes some great points, and I agree with them. However, I think there are two extraneous factors to consider. Unfortunately, even to my Keynesian view of things, the financial markets today are far from freely operating markets that can self correct. 
 

1. The JP Morgan’s of the world may become insolvent on paper, but I don’t think will ever be allowed to fail. Arguments can be made on both sides of that and I won’t give an opinion, but most importantly I don’t think a JP Morgan will be allowed to suffer the same fate as their acquired Bears Stern. The risk may be there but the consequences may not  

2. While I fully agree our market is “sick”, and actually sicker than we want to publicly admit, there are a lot of sound economic models that suggest this isn’t a sickness per se, but delayed spending. The demand and resources are there with willing spenders, but the opportunity has been paused  So as things begin to normalize, or find a new normal is more like it, will this current state of economic affairs quickly correct itself as the pent up consumer demand plays out. I certainly have all fingers and toes crossed this will be the case. Time will tell  

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by Woods020

[Woods020]

36 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

But you can't stop doing business at times because you "think" (housing) prices are too high.  You can only require more downpayment and/or tighten underwriting standards.

There are ALWAYS risks in an economy.  After WW II, investors expected the stock market to fall back to 1930's levels throughout the 1940's and 1950's.

Government debt is high, but consumer and corporate debt is very manageable.  Check out Pages 45 and beyond:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

 

We almost have to rethink what high government debt even means. It’s way past rational and it’s just “funny money” at this point. Government debt will likely never be at a point that wouldn’t be considered entirely too high at any point in the foreseeable future. 

[World Colonial]

27 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

But you can't stop doing business at times because you "think" (housing) prices are too high.  You can only require more downpayment and/or tighten underwriting standards.

I am aware of this.  I used this example as a counterpoint that bank balance sheets are "rock solid".  My point is that it is artificial.

The only "natural" buyer for mortgages are pension funds, insurance companies and if there is anyone else who happens to have long term matching liabilities.  Banks obviously don't think holding most of this paper is such a great investment or else they wouldn't securitize it.  Yes, I know they also sell it to maintain leverage ratios.

33 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

There are ALWAYS risks in an economy.  After WW II, investors expected the stock market to fall back to 1930's levels throughout the 1940's and 1950's

The point I was making is that the relative risk is much higher.  I don't see how anyone can dispute it, considering that valuations are so much higher and so far above historical trend, which itself is also somewhat inflated due to the length of the bubble.

36 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

BGovernment debt is high, but consumer and corporate debt is very manageable.  Check out Pages 45 and beyond:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

 

Consumer debt is lower than 2008.  The problem remains in who actually owes it which distorts the aggregate data.  The wealthiest and most able to service debt generally don't owe much personal debt.  I don't believe this will be the primary source of any future financial crisis anyway.

Corporate debt appears to be manageable due to:

Artificially low interest expense which improves solvency ratios.  This won't change much any time soon (in the aggregate) as it takes time for debt to mature.

The artificial economy has inflated corporate revenues and profits which also distorts coverage ratios.  This can and will change a lot faster.  Look at what happened in 2008 and 2020.  

[World Colonial]

5 minutes ago, Woods020 said:

We almost have to rethink what high government debt even means. It’s way past rational and it’s just “funny money” at this point. Government debt will likely never be at a point that wouldn’t be considered entirely too high at any point in the foreseeable future. 

It will be viewed as "too high" if and when people ever correlate it with declining living standards.  That's one of the points I was trying to make.  Up to this point especially in the prior year, most people (even many who should know better) seem to believe there is no consequence to this unprecedented issuance or claim it can be worried about later..

It's probably not "too high" yet because the actual public debt that must be serviced is "only" about 85% of current GDP.  This is the nominal $28T+ less amounts held by government "trust funds" and the Federal Reserve.  It's still "manageable" but the more immediate problem is the exponential growth which is completely unsustainable.

Some have tried to rationalize it with a comparison to Japan where it is much higher.  There is no specific point which will trigger a USD crisis.  I believe it will be far lower than Japan (American society isn't remotely as cohesive) but there is no possibility of knowing this in advance.