The Royal Mint - interesting... 0

[Zebo]

It is interesting, and I am happy about it, that the Royal Mint in England is advertising some of their latest coins in NGC holders. These are PF70 Ultra Cameo proofs. With the British population not thrilled with entombed coins as they say - there has been more TPG slabs showing up in their auctions. One of the most recent auctions was over 90% slabs. 

Could the the mindeset in Euopre being changing - or will the market forces force change?

An era of change - as they put it.

[World Colonial]

Why is this a good thing?  Are you planning on liquidating your collection?

Noticeable adoption of TPG for the collecting of most non-US coinage is a detriment to most hobbyist collectors due to the scarcity, limited variety or both.    It doesn't provide the same benefit it did in the US when it was introduced because the risk of counterfeits for most (notice I didn't say all) non-US coins is less (lower price level) and so IS the financial risk of buying over graded or problem coins.

It is less of an impact to collecting in the UK or continental Europe because the coins are usually common, collectors don't have the same preferences for minimal differences in quality (yet) as in the US, and there is sufficient variety.

However, what I describe is what happened in South Africa starting around 2002 which persists to this day.  With Spanish colonial coinage, the primary thing US buying has done is to inflate the price level and price out collectors elsewhere out of the better coinage in their series they could previously buy.  I also assume US buyers have been the biggest factor in inflating the prices of the more expensive British coinage in the last 15+ years, as I don't see there would be a market most of the time at these prices otherwise.  The financial scale even in the largest markets is a minimal fraction of the US.

One reason many US collectors collect non-US coinage is because they could not and cannot afford to collect the US coinage they would like to buy.  The US price level was always noticeably higher, but TPG adoption increased the variance, at least until more recently.

In South Africa due to the scarcity, TPG has resulted in a high proportion of financially motivated buying which means that many hobbyists are relegated to buying the "leftovers".  They can't afford to compete but even if and where they can, the inflated price spreads and unpredictable prices often make it an unappealing and risky financial proposition.  I don't see the same negative effect with my primary series, but undoubtedly US buyers are almost certainly pricing out practically everyone else, as I alone have bought a disproportionate proportion of the better coinage and it's probably happening in other series.

Edited September 12, 2020 by World Colonial

[Coinbuf]

Do you have a link?

[Zebo]

11 minutes ago, Coinbuf said:

Do you have a link?

Middle (top sellers) and bottom of the page. Modern coinage. 

https://www.royalmint.com

[Zebo]

26 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Why is this a good thing?  Are you planning on liquidating your collection?

Noticeable adoption of TPG for the collecting of most non-US coinage is a detriment to most hobbyist collectors due to the scarcity, limited variety or both.    It doesn't provide the same benefit it did in the US when it was introduced because the risk of counterfeits for most (notice I didn't say all) non-US coins is less (lower price level) and so IS the financial risk of buying over graded or problem coins.

It is less of an impact to collecting in the UK or continental Europe because the coins are usually common, collectors don't have the same preferences for minimal differences in quality (yet) as in the US, and there is sufficient variety.

However, what I describe is what happened in South Africa starting around 2002 which persists to this day.  With Spanish colonial coinage, the primary thing US buying has done is to inflate the price level and price out collectors elsewhere out of the better coinage in their series they could previously buy.  I also assume US buyers have been the biggest factor in inflating the prices of the more expensive British coinage in the last 15+ years, as I don't see there would be a market most of the time at these prices otherwise.  The financial scale even in the largest markets is a minimal fraction of the US.

One reason many US collectors collect non-US coinage is because they could not and cannot afford to collect the US coinage they would like to buy.  The US price level was always noticeably higher, but TPG adoption increased the variance, at least until more recently.

In South Africa due to the scarcity, TPG has resulted in a high proportion of financially motivated buying which means that many hobbyists are relegated to buying the "leftovers".  They can't afford to compete but even if and where they can, the inflated price spreads and unpredictable prices often make it an unappealing and risky financial proposition.  I don't see the same negative effect with my primary series, but undoubtedly US buyers are almost certainly pricing out practically everyone else, as I alone have bought a disproportionate proportion of the better coinage and it's probably happening in other series.

I am seeing a slow, but constant change in the UK (Primarily England) for TPG grading on the more expensive coins. In my series - I see an interest in varieties. I also see a lot of counterfeits. Granted that is only one series out of many, but it's a start. I am not selling my collection, but when I do - there will be a financial benefit if TPGs are valued in the country.

Australia and Canada both value TPGs in my series - not sure about the rest.

[World Colonial]

37 minutes ago, Zebo said:

I am seeing a slow, but constant change in the UK (Primarily England) for TPG grading on the more expensive coins. In my series - I see an interest in varieties. I also see a lot of counterfeits. Granted that is only one series out of many, but it's a start. I am not selling my collection, but when I do - there will be a financial benefit if TPGs are valued in the country.

Australia and Canada both value TPGs in my series - not sure about the rest.

My inference is that the Anglo countries are more accepting of it.  Canada has it's own TPG but I don't know whether it's Americans or Canadians who mostly buy NGC and PCGS coins.  My guess is maybe around 50-50.  Outside of NCLT, PCGS seems to be preferred (from the pops) in Australia, but I don't see any graded coins in Noble auctions who is the largest firm in that market.  From this, I infer that US collectors are buying more or most of the graded coins but it's a guess only.  In South Africa, it's overwhelmingly locals as there is a noticeable price variance between local and international prices and the better coinage is too expensive where hardly anyone else would buy it.

To my knowledge, the sovereign is one of the few internationally collected series though it's probably mostly Anglo country collectors.  It is widely counterfeited.  The point I was making though is that most non-US coinage is either not very valuable and worth counterfeiting or too scarce where many fakes could be sold without being detected.  That's why I am not really worried about buying fakes in my series.  I'm hardly an expert at detection but if any high quality coin shows up for one I'm not aware of worth any noticeable money, I'd be suspicious of it unless offered by a reliable source.  That's where I would want to know the provenance.

The higher prices TPG creates by attracting a larger number of financially motivated buyers makes it more profitable to attempt counterfeiting whereas otherwise, it would be less likely or not happen at all.  It isn't like US coinage which is both generally common but often expensive, even prior to 1986.

For British coins specifically, coins like the 1839, 1887 and 1893 proof sets and proof gold generally have increased a lot over the last 15 years.  Not all of it is presumably due to TPG but I infer most of it could be.  The 1839 Una & the Lion 5 Sov is among the most highly preferred coins anywhere, but I still don't remotely believe it went from $25k to $300k since 2004/2005 in 61 or 62 because collectors suddenly found it a lot more interesting as a collectible.  The 1937 proof gold (especially 5S) are very common yet very expensive.   It's not that I would expect these coins to be affordable to the typical (British) collector but all are disproportionately hopelessly out of reach now.  I could have "stretched" for the 1839 5S in 2004.  No way I could buy it now.

I understand why anyone selling wants a higher price.  What I don't get is why anyone who isn't contemplating selling their collection thinks perpetually higher prices are better or so great.  Why would anyone who wants to add or complete their collection want to pay more?  It makes no sense.

[World Colonial]

By the way, I noticed Heritage sold a 2019 silver NCLT commemorating the 180th anniversary of the 1839 5S.  Current portrait of QEII with the 1839 reverse.  It was an NGC 70 for $13k and has a mintage of 3,000.

That's a real eye opener.

If it had the young head (Gillick) portrait and was available at a reasonable price, I might be interesting in buying it.  I haven't seen any other sales.

[Coinbuf]

Thanks for the link @Zebo interesting stuff.

[RonnieR131]

Thanks for the link @Zebo. Under the musical pieces available, Queen and Elton John, that I could see, were the only two modern, pieces offered. I really expected the Beatles to be included, but maybe living in the US I just perceive their importance in musical history differently..