An example of why most coins aren't nearly as rare as perceived 0

[World Colonial]

Yesterday, I noticed that Heritage is offering 10 MS 1821 Guatemala 1/4 real in it's May 28 weekly auction.  Grades range from MS-64 to MS-67.

This made me curious, so I checked the NGC census (but not PCGS) which I have not recently; certainly within the last year but cannot remember exactly when.  The count for this mint ("G") struck from (1796-1821) is 255 but only about 15-20 aren't 1821.  (Seven for the 1819 which is easily the second most common.)  Of this total, 53 are MS-65, 103 are MS-66 and 14 are MS-67.  Given the recent count increase and value, there are probably few if any duplicates.

The last time I checked, the count was around 30 and my MS-66 was tied for first or maybe there were a few MS-67.

It's apparent this is a hoard coin, as practically all of the other close to 100 dates from the other six countries are at least somewhat scarce.  Concurrently, this is yet another example that the overwhelming majority of coins are far more common even in "elite" grades than is apparent to most collectors.

If anyone is interested, I can also post a list of other coins which most collectors would probably consider to be at least somewhat scarce also existing in large supply in high quality.

 

[GoldFinger1969]

What you mean by "not rare" is that there are unfound coins that haven't been certified yet but can swell the population census, right ?

[Coinbuf]

For world coins I would agree that the number of raw coins far outweighs the number of slabbed, thus the opportunity for significant pop increases is a risk if playing the top pop game.   For US coinage, and especially the key dates, the number of graded examples (especially high grade coins) is higher than the raw coins.  However because of the constant crackout game the pop reports are totally useless for a great many US coins.

[Revenant]

11 minutes ago, Coinbuf said:

For world coins I would agree that the number of raw coins far outweighs the number of slabbed, thus the opportunity for significant pop increases is a risk if playing the top pop game.   For US coinage, and especially the key dates, the number of graded examples (especially high grade coins) is higher than the raw coins.  However because of the constant crackout game the pop reports are totally useless for a great many US coins.

The TOP POP game can get particularly amusing / fun to laugh at in some cases where a somewhat unethical dealer will ask for moon money because they lucked into a "single finest top-pop" note or coin when they know full well that you can get uncirc examples by the bunch or by the roll for a couple of dollars per note / coin and there's probably a TON out there that could match or beat that example.

I had a journal recently where I bought a coin for about $20 that was TOP POP by grace of the fact that it's literally the only one anyone ever sent to NGC for grading.

[GoldFinger1969]

I just think that you probably have lots of world coins in the hands of people who are not serious collectors who may not even be aware that there are TPGs that grade and preserve the coins.

I'll bet the U.S. has more part-time coin collectors aware of the TPGs than part-timers overseas.

Speaking of overseas...are there any foreign (European ?) TPGs ?   Or do PCGS and NGC pretty much have that market to themselves, too ?

[World Colonial]

42 minutes ago, Coinbuf said:

For world coins I would agree that the number of raw coins far outweighs the number of slabbed, thus the opportunity for significant pop increases is a risk if playing the top pop game.   For US coinage, and especially the key dates, the number of graded examples (especially high grade coins) is higher than the raw coins.  However because of the constant crackout game the pop reports are totally useless for a great many US coins.

Yes, it's more applicable to non-US coinage but I think it applies to a lot more US coins than you seem to think.  I have included more examples below and though some are known hoards, to my knowledge not all.  In all of these examples, there were fewer or almost no collectors and in many or most instances, the mintages were probably lower due to population and economics.

As to which US coinage it predominantly applies, mostly US 20th century but probably also in a minority of cases to the Barber coinage and Bust halves.  The grades will vary but most of this coinage isn't worth that much, though US collectors have a much higher preference for TPG than those elsewhere.

For post 1933 US coinage, it's my belief that most dates are easily an R-1 in MS-66 (1250+) with a large proportion having a (very large) multiple.  

Here are the examples I referenced in my last post.  Not all of the numbers are "high" but all are much higher than is evident to anyone looking for these coins without the TPG data.  It's not like US coinage where, due to the price, the coin is easy to buy most of the time.

1853 Bolivia 1/4 sol  7 MS

Rhodesia 1977 1/2C 13 (nine MS)

Sarawak 1941H cent circulation strike 46 (37 MS)

Spain 1726M Real 28 MS (2 MS-68, 7 MS-67 and 9 MS-66)

Mexico 1751 1/2 Real 31 MS

Mexico 1861 Mo CH 2R 175 MS (26 PL, 10 MS-67 and 53 MS-66)

Central American Republic 1837 GOLD 4E 10 AU-55 or AU-58, 9 MS

1712 Peru 8E 37 MS, probably mostly or entirely from the 1715 fleet shipwreck

1821 Guatemala Real 369 MS (264 PL)

1774 Bolivia 8R 91 MS (MS-66 top grade) ; This is a hoard (Cuzco hoard I believe) with many more presumably ungraded

No date (1542-1555) Mexico 4R 52 MS (up to MS-64); Many more in AU-55 or AU-58

1754 Mexico 8R 566 MS; This is a confirmed hoard coin

[World Colonial]

17 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I just think that you probably have lots of world coins in the hands of people who are not serious collectors who may not even be aware that there are TPGs that grade and preserve the coins.

I'll bet the U.S. has more part-time coin collectors aware of the TPGs than part-timers overseas.

Speaking of overseas...are there any foreign (European ?) TPGs ?   Or do PCGS and NGC pretty much have that market to themselves, too ?

To answer both of your posts, I'm referring to the number of coins potentially in existence, not just in the TPG data.  You can refer to my last post for example but despite how high some of these numbers may seem, there almost certainly more or many more not graded.

I used the TPG data because it's the only independent quantifiable source.  There are coins that I and many others know to be common even though the population counts are low because we see it regularly, but just because collectors can't find a coin doesn't mean it is rare.  That's what most collectors do.  Outside of the TPG data, they seem to conclude based upon personal experience that just because they or everyone they don't know can't find it, the coin must be "scarce" or "rare".

In one sense, the example I use I believe is unusual for this type of coinage.  But I don't think it is as unusual as most collectors probably believe.  The effort has just not been made to identify known survivors (it isn't worth it) or the coins aren't submitted.

[World Colonial]

26 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Speaking of overseas...are there any foreign (European ?) TPGs ?   Or do PCGS and NGC pretty much have that market to themselves, too ?

There is one (or two) in Canada if you consider that "overseas".  There is (or was) CGS in the UK but I think it is defunct.  SANGS survives in South Africa (for now).

The problem for any (prospective) non-US based TPG is first, lack of local acceptance.  Most of these collectors don't like it.  Second, there is no current or realistic scale where it is viable as a business proposition.  There isn't and won't be enough volume because the most preferred coinage (classic equivalents) do not usually exist in sufficient supply or where it might, the price level is too low to make it worthwhile to submit in volume.

So as examples, China has limited scale in NCLT and there are large counts in circulating PRC (in comparison to other world coins), but even though I don't consider most recent Chinese "classics" that scarce, this coinage probably doesn't exist in large enough number to support a local TPG.

In the UK, the supply of 19th century and earlier coinage in "gradeable" quality isn't that low much of the time, but I'm dubious it's enough to support a local firm longer term either.

[ColonialCoinsUK]

This is a very interesting thread and something I seem to spend much time looking into. I too noticed all the 1821 Guatemala 1/4 reales appearing over several weeks at Heritage, any details of the hoard? There appear to be some other dates/mints which have an unusually high number of mint state examples which would also suggest hoards, for example the 1811 4 and 8 reales struck in Valencia - I can't seem to find any details on a hoard for these - not surprisng though given the seige of the city by Napoleon's forces in 1812 - anyone?

As suggested there are usually high grade examples of most British and British colonial coinage available however for the other series I collect such a France, Spain and Italy of the Napoleonic period I have slowly (very slowly ) started to look into this in more detail. It has been surprising how little is recorded, how few mint state examples there are and also how 'rare' some of the issues appear to be particularly for the minor denominations.

For example part of my Journal Entry 'In Search of Varieities'

"Even though the 1808M issue has the second highest mintage of the short series at 87,183, and that it also has the most graded examples - 37 coins graded at NGC (VF to MS64) and 9 at PCGS (XF40 to AU58) it still does not appear very often. To complicate matters further there are 3 varieties of this coin - Type 1 which is extremely rare and Type 2 which is the version that is usually found. The Type 2 coins are further split into 2 varieties depending on the number of stars on each side of the standard on the reverse, one has 3 stars and the other 6, hopefully the attached scans highlight the difference between the two varieties. As I now have both of these varieties in my collection I decided to look into the possible populations and my research so far suggests that the existing population of Type 2 1808M 20 Lire coins is most likely less than 150 coins with VF being the typical grade encountered and that the 3 stars variety is about twice as prevelant as the 6 stars variety. Although both NGC and PCGS do not yet distinguish between these known varieties on the label what was surprising was that the vast majority of higher grade examples are already in TPG holders and that these also account for a significant portion of the existing examples! It should also be noted that, at the moment, I am only aware of a single mint state example, either raw or graded and that is the NGC MS64 '3 stars' example sold by Heritage in January 2015 for $3525, as this is way beyond my budget, and that it also has some light adjustment marks across the middle of the reverse, I am more than happy with my '2nd finest AU58' example."

Gold coinage seems to be more available and well documented compared to silver and copper issues, and in the several Journal entries (e.g. Collecting the Small Coins - Spanish Charles IV 2 reales) I have started to consider the smaller denominations of the period. As this study progresses it appears that some issues have very few recorded examples (<10) with no graded examples at all and that the finest documented may be VF. Although I expect, and hope, that quality coins are to be found in long-standing private collections (e.g. Journal Entry on the 1808I 10 centimes: If you wait long enough....) it does mean that some lower grade, problem free coins that I would have passed on at auction I now actively bid on as it may be the only chance to actually complete a set .

[World Colonial]

6 hours ago, ColonialCoinsUK said:

This is a very interesting thread and something I seem to spend much time looking into. I too noticed all the 1821 Guatemala 1/4 reales appearing over several weeks at Heritage, any details of the hoard? There appear to be some other dates/mints which have an unusually high number of mint state examples which would also suggest hoards, for example the 1811 4 and 8 reales struck in Valencia - I can't seem to find any details on a hoard for these - not surprisng though given the seige of the city by Napoleon's forces in 1812 - anyone?

As suggested there are usually high grade examples of most British and British colonial coinage available however for the other series I collect such a France, Spain and Italy of the Napoleonic period I have slowly (very slowly ) started to look into this in more detail. It has been surprising how little is recorded, how few mint state examples there are and also how 'rare' some of the issues appear to be particularly for the minor denominations..

To my knowledge, US, British, and ancient Greek and Roman Is by far the most researched and presumably where the scarcity is best known.  It takes a lot of effort along to compile estimates or confirm known survivors.  Most coins are also either too common or not sufficiently interesting to enough collectors.

I'm not familiar with the source or background of (potential) hoards. In my examples, I assume some are hoards, as I don't see how so many could otherwise exist in this quality. There are also other coins to my knowledge that might also be hoards, such as the 1817So (Chile) 1/4 real.  I understand there are over 100 MS examples known, with somewhat over 30 currently graded.

I would like to know what else is available in my primary series to potentially buy.  This is Lima and Potosi pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R.  I have Gilboy's and Yonaka's books, the Patterson (1996 Bonham's) catalogue and have reviewed the ANS collection online (but not in person).  Yonaka includes survey data in his reference but it doesn't break it out by quality.  

For the European coinage, it's my general belief that most Western post 1775 isn't that scarce, but some seem to be distinctly more common than others.  Example:  British seems to be a lot more common than contemporary Spanish, both absolutely and in equivalent quality.  Where the coinage is scarce, I would attribute it primarily to low initial mintages due to population and economics.  Examples of this would be Dutch provincial where each province potentially had around 100,000 near 1800.  (It's a "guesstimate", haven't looked it up.)  I would also expect many die varieties to be scarce for the same reason, along with the likelihood that collectors at the time didn't consider it important.

Most early US federal coinage isn't rare even in "high" quality.  Where it is, the mintage was usually low with presumably far fewer collectors to preserve it than most of Western Europe.  (Examples: 1794 dollar, 1796-1797 half and one of the bust half dimes-1805 I recall.)

It also depends upon what you mean by "recorded".  The TPG data isn't representative since grading is not preferred in those countries and I doubt most of the better specimens are owned in the US.  It's more common for US collectors to own most (and sometimes probably all) of the better or even decent coinage from the developing countries since there is usually limited local organized collecting and only a limited market at (much) lower prices.

[ColonialCoinsUK]

On 5/9/2020 at 7:35 PM, World Colonial said:

For the European coinage, it's my general belief that most Western post 1775 isn't that scarce, but some seem to be distinctly more common than others.  Example:  British seems to be a lot more common than contemporary Spanish, both absolutely and in equivalent quality.  Where the coinage is scarce, I would attribute it primarily to low initial mintages due to population and economics.  Examples of this would be Dutch provincial where each province potentially had around 100,000 near 1800.  (It's a "guesstimate", haven't looked it up.)  I would also expect many die varieties to be scarce for the same reason, along with the likelihood that collectors at the time didn't consider it important.

The more a look into individual issues for 1800's European coinage the more surprised I am how few examples seem to be around and even within that small group how rare mint state examples are - the exception being possible hoards. Yesterday I bought a coin in VF for which I have only been able to track down about 40 examples with about 4 in a similar grade and possibly only one coin better than this and that in AU. The vast majority of the others are good/poor and usually scratched and/or heavily cleaned, I can only hope that a quality example exists in a collection somewhere that eventually appears for sale. The current specialist price guides pretty much give the same info for each date and in all grades so are not even remotely representative  - the exception I would say are Gaduory and Le Franc for the French coinage where the guide does give the effective top grade available for each issue (not taking account of the odd stand out coin)

On 5/9/2020 at 7:35 PM, World Colonial said:

It also depends upon what you mean by "recorded".  The TPG data isn't representative since grading is not preferred in those countries and I doubt most of the better specimens are owned in the US.  It's more common for US collectors to own most (and sometimes probably all) of the better or even decent coinage from the developing countries since there is usually limited local organized collecting and only a limited market at (much) lower prices.

By 'recorded' I mean in auction records (I have 100's of actual catalogues and many more electronic only lists - coinarchives, sixbid archives and acsearch are also very useful - and quicker), dealers lists, museums and Ebay (surprising useful for the smaller denominations) and TPG populations but as you quite correctly point out most of these coins are ungraded so TPG examples only make up a small fraction of the coins documented - hence my surprise at the numbers of graded 1808M 20 Lire.

On 5/9/2020 at 7:35 PM, World Colonial said:

I would like to know what else is available in my primary series to potentially buy.  This is Lima and Potosi pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R.  I have Gilboy's and Yonaka's books, the Patterson (1996 Bonham's) catalogue and have reviewed the ANS collection online (but not in person).  Yonaka includes survey data in his reference but it doesn't break it out by quality.  .

I am aware of your interest in the minor pillars and the searching it has taken and still does - I had considered something similar for the portrait issues, which although more available still presents serious challenges!

 

[World Colonial]

53 minutes ago, ColonialCoinsUK said:

The more a look into individual issues for 1800's European coinage the more surprised I am how few examples seem to be around and even within that small group how rare mint state examples are - the exception being possible hoards. Yesterday I bought a coin in VF for which I have only been able to track down about 40 examples with about 4 in a similar grade and possibly only one coin better than this and that in AU. The vast majority of the others are good/poor and usually scratched and/or heavily cleaned, I can only hope that a quality example exists in a collection somewhere that eventually appears for sale. The current specialist price guides pretty much give the same info for each date and in all grades so are not even remotely representative  - the exception I would say are Gaduory and Le Franc for the French coinage where the guide does give the effective top grade available for each issue (not taking account of the odd stand out coin)

By 'recorded' I mean in auction records (I have 100's of actual catalogues and many more electronic only lists - coinarchives, sixbid archives and acsearch are also very useful - and quicker), dealers lists, museums and Ebay (surprising useful for the smaller denominations) and TPG populations but as you quite correctly point out most of these coins are ungraded so TPG examples only make up a small fraction of the coins documented - hence my surprise at the numbers of graded 1808M 20 Lire.

I am aware of your interest in the minor pillars and the searching it has taken and still does - I had considered something similar for the portrait issues, which although more available still presents serious challenges!

 

I don't know which coins you are trying to find.  There are presumably tens of thousands of European from the 19th century.  The earlier ones should usually be (much) scarcer than later ones, those from countries with less collecting should also be (much) scarcer versus those with more (such as Britain and Germany) but many presumably had low mintages for the reason I gave you.

My primary claim for the scarcity of pillar minors is not just based upon what I see. Potosi and Lima were geographically isolated at the time and for over 150 years after this coinage was discontinued. There is no organized collecting in Bolivia now and it's limited in Peru.  I presume there were few (if any) collectors at the time.  Unlike the pillar dollars, the coins aren't found in shipwrecks much since it I must have been struck primarily for local circulation versus international trade.  The vast majority of known coins are either badly worn or holed, as I understand it circulated for over a century.

The mintages are generally not that low and the coins aren't worth that much.  These are the primary reasons some of this coinage (I still doubt most much less all) might be (a lot) more common than appearances.  For example, 1767 Peru 1/2R recorded mintage was 1,040,000.  (This as opposed to Guatemala where all the mintages were in the vicinity of 20,000 or less.) If accurate, that's a lot for the time.  Number of high grade examples known?  Zero as public knowledge unless the ANS has it. In his survey, Yonaka included eight.  I've seen a few more but only one as good as VF.  (I own a raw VG details with slight rim damage.)

To adjust for what I described, I compare the scarcity to one where the rarity is better known.  The one I consider most representative is the equivalent Liberty Seated denominations; not exact but close enough particularly for the earlier (No Motto) dates.  By US standards, many are scarce or rare, sometimes in any quality but frequently in high quality.  It should be evident particularly where the mintages are roughly comparable, pillars are almost always (much) scarcer. 

As an example, Heritage provides estimates of 48 and 60 in two listings for the 1878-S half.  Last I checked, TPG data had 39 with 12 MS (excluding "details" coins and duplicates) from a mintage of 12,000.  I own the 1758 Peru 4R NGC XF-45.  Recorded mintage is about 26,000, Yonaka identified three and I have seen a few others.  It might be more common in total due to the relative mintage but the probability of (anywhere near) as many MS or even better examples existing is virtually zero.  (Potentially less than 10 for the entire series of 21 years.)  Patterson had one which appears to be slightly better than mine but other collections such as the ANS (which includes Norweb) doesn't have it.  (ANS includes seven of the 21 coins.)

[ColonialCoinsUK]

On 5/13/2020 at 1:52 PM, World Colonial said:

I don't know which coins you are trying to find.  There are presumably tens of thousands of European from the 19th century.  The earlier ones should usually be (much) scarcer than later ones, those from countries with less collecting should also be (much) scarcer versus those with more (such as Britain and Germany) but many presumably had low mintages for the reason I gave you.

The situation probably applies to most European coinage apart from gold and selected crowns - including those from the German States. I tend to focus on France, Spain and Italy which seem to have a large collector base but still seem to be lacking in detailed information. Mintages are very variable and often very low - apart from the Paris mint even some Napoleonic issues are only in the hundreds - for example I have a AN13Q gold 20 Franc with a mintage of 516 (Le Franc).

Good luck with your pillar minors - fortunately the Napoleonic period is mainly Ferdinand VII which are much more available, particularly the final issues!

[World Colonial]

37 minutes ago, ColonialCoinsUK said:

The situation probably applies to most European coinage apart from gold and selected crowns - including those from the German States. I tend to focus on France, Spain and Italy which seem to have a large collector base but still seem to be lacking in detailed information. Mintages are very variable and often very low - apart from the Paris mint even some Napoleonic issues are only in the hundreds - for example I have a AN13Q gold 20 Franc with a mintage of 516 (Le Franc).

Good luck with your pillar minors - fortunately the Napoleonic period is mainly Ferdinand VII which are much more available, particularly the final issues!

Probably an obvious suggestion but you should look at the Newman Numismatic Portal if you have not.  Also the Aureo & Calico archives which I rank second best for Spanish after Heritage.  (Some might rank it first.)  The annual "Selecion 500" sale has a good variety of high quality Ferdinand VII though I don't recall specifics.

I performed an extensive search in the available Stacks catalogues and a few others through NNP for pillar minors but there wasn't much.  Even if it is noticeably more available than appearances though, I wouldn't expect these firms to have sold hardly any of it due to the low price.  Most would have been nominally valued; like a few dollars to $50 from the 1930's to 1980's no matter what TPG grade it has now.

Except for Crowns and gold, the collector base for most 19th century European series will not be that large.  Probably usually fewer than the coinage I collect where collectors will pay good prices for it.  (Over 2000 years to collect with the earlier coinage while presumably usually scarcer, also usually with a higher preference.)  Exceptions apply to a (very) low proportion where no actually scarce or rare coin is cheap and where survival is much better known, such as a few Victoria 6P dates.

[Elijohn]

Pulled this out of the ground the other day. (Found in USA soil)  Can't seem to find any of this date online for sale or that have sold to give me an idea of value. Is this one of the coins you consider scarce? Guatemala 1812NG M 2 Reales also found a 1778 Carolus III 2r with a C M K countermark on his head next to it.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Elijohn

[World Colonial]

Sorry, can't answer your question on those two coins, as I don't collect Guatemala portrait coinage or follow it that closely.  I have a reference book for Mexican portrait coinage and many of those are scarce, but more so for the earlier than later dates.  Mexico runs from 1772 to 1821.

One or both might be scarce but still won't be worth much going by the state of preservation in the image.

[Abuelo's Collection]

The coins from Guatemala are in general far less common than Mexico or Potosi as the country was not a silver producer. There are exceptions to this statement. But PCGS has graded none 2R for 1812 and NGC has a couple. Stuart had an AU. Heritage has one in its archives. So you can do the math.  Issues from the late years of the colonial period are a bit more available. As far as the 1778, I am not aware that Guatemala minted 2R coins that year. There are likely many more Morgan dollars for one year, any year, than 2 reales for Colonial Guatemala for all years combined. 

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Abuelo's Collection

[World Colonial]

7 hours ago, Abuelo's Collection said:

The coins from Guatemala are in general far less common than Mexico or Potosi as the country was not a silver producer. There are exceptions to this statement. But PCGS has graded none 2R for 1812 and NGC has a couple. Stuart had an AU. Heritage has one in its archives. So you can do the math.  Issues from the late years of the colonial period are a bit more available. As far as the 1778, I am not aware that Guatemala minted 2R coins that year. There are likely many more Morgan dollars for one year, any year, than 2 reales for Colonial Guatemala for all years combined. 

 

Correct, but I wouldn't place any reliance on the TPG data.  About the only thing it tell us is when a coin is common.

I'd consider Stuart's or any other "name" collection a lot more meaningful. Usually, these collectors can buy any coin they want through the dealer network.  Another example is Rudman's Mexican pillar collection which consisted of a disproportionate percentage of low grade and "details" examples. 

From the available data, most of these coins apparently aren't available either because it doesn't exist except in (very) low quality or is in "strong hands".  Many of these coins are so hard to buy partly because it isn't worth enough to motivate the owner to sell until the collection is liquidated. 

I've been looking to buy coins I know exist for over 15 years but haven't seen any of it come up for sale.  I have no intention of selling anything in my core collection since there is nothing else I would rather own.  If I live to my life expectancy, I'll own some of these coins close to 50 years.

[Abuelo's Collection]

Fully agree @World Colonial. The TPG was just an example. I certainly own coins that have been in my collection already for four decades, as well as others that have been in my family for close to a century. But that should be another thread.