A very peculiar Quarter 0

[cladking]

On 3/11/2020 at 9:36 AM, World Colonial said:

 

US coinage?  Same problem.  The largest supply outside of NCLT is in 20th century classics and moderns.  Most of this coinage apparently financially viable now will never be graded, as any noticeable increase in the populations would send the price level crashing, even from its supposedly low current level. 

The number of circulation  Ikes graded is a fraction of the number of Morgans.  I'd be surprised if this doesn't apply to other 19th century US coins as well. 

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, cladking said:

The number of circulation  Ikes graded is a fraction of the number of Morgans.  I'd be surprised if this doesn't apply to other 19th century US coins as well. 

Yes, only the ASE, Peace dollars and a few pre-1933 gold have comparable populations to the Morgan dollar.

As a proxy for potential ungraded populations, I have looked at PCGS Coin Facts estimates for a reasonable cross section of US coinage.  On numerous occasions, I have also read comments that a much larger proportion of even more expensive US coinage is not graded.  These estimates support these claims.  As one example, the estimated survivors for the 1802 half dime is believed to be 35-40 based upon research performed about 75 years ago.  The combined TPG data (excluding PCGS Genuine which I haven't bene able to confirm) was 14 the last time I checked and this might even include duplicates.  (All three NGC coins are AU-50.)

Existing estimates (regardless of source) are also probably usually understated, especially for non-US coinage.  (I believe PCGS Coin Facts is vastly overstated for practically all US 1965-1998 MS-65.)