Limited Edition Silver Set - Your Opinion

[investinrehabs]

I've been buying a couple of the sets every year. But I think they're way overpriced and it seems they have a hard time selling 50,000 of them. I mean, they still have stock on the 2018 sets! I like the sets and that's why I buy them.  But do any of you experienced people think these are still worth buying and holding onto, for an increase in the prices in the years to come?

Here's a link to an eBay ad. https://www.ebay.com/itm/2018-S-US-Mint-Limited-Edition-Silver-Proof-8-Coin-Set-18RC/202576137952?epid=0&hash=item2f2a7a8ee0:g:d9IAAOSwSn1cS2uw:rk:2:pf:1&frcectupt=true   

The 2018 limited edition sets from the mint are selling for $144.95 and this guy is selling em for $142.95 AND giving free shipping! Plus, he has a "make an offer" button. Let's say they get the "middle volume" discount of 4%. That brings his cost to $139.15. So he makes $3.80 per set. BUT he has to pay eBay fees and also shipping costs. Those boxes have to cost a minimum of $5 to ship. If my numbers are correct, he's losing money on every sale. Especially is he accepts offers lower than $142.95! That makes me very skeptical about buying from someone like that. They claim it's all OGP, but the numbers just don't add up. Last time I checked, people sell things to make money. I find it hard to believe he's using these as "loss leaders." Can anyone give me a valid explanation??

[Mohawk]

58 minutes ago, investinrehabs said:

I've been buying a couple of the sets every year. But I think they're way overpriced and it seems they have a hard time selling 50,000 of them. I mean, they still have stock on the 2018 sets! I like the sets and that's why I buy them.  But do any of you experienced people think these are still worth buying and holding onto, for an increase in the prices in the years to come?

Here's a link to an eBay ad. https://www.ebay.com/itm/2018-S-US-Mint-Limited-Edition-Silver-Proof-8-Coin-Set-18RC/202576137952?epid=0&hash=item2f2a7a8ee0:g:d9IAAOSwSn1cS2uw:rk:2:pf:1&frcectupt=true   

The 2018 limited edition sets from the mint are selling for $144.95 and this guy is selling em for $142.95 AND giving free shipping! Plus, he has a "make an offer" button. Let's say they get the "middle volume" discount of 4%. That brings his cost to $139.15. So he makes $3.80 per set. BUT he has to pay eBay fees and also shipping costs. Those boxes have to cost a minimum of $5 to ship. If my numbers are correct, he's losing money on every sale. Especially is he accepts offers lower than $142.95! That makes me very skeptical about buying from someone like that. They claim it's all OGP, but the numbers just don't add up. Last time I checked, people sell things to make money. I find it hard to believe he's using these as "loss leaders." Can anyone give me a valid explanation??

Well.....here are my thoughts on this issue.  There are US moderns which can be used as investments, I would say these sets aren't among that number aside from the 2017 set, and even that one is relatively short term in my opinion.  First off, you're right.  These sets are overpriced, highly overpriced.  Look at the coins contained in these sets.....they are all available in other US Mint offerings which cost a lot less to purchase than the Limited Edition sets.  The 2017 set is something of an exception because it has the 2017-S Silver Eagle that was only available outside of the Limited Edition Set in I believe it was the Congratulations Set for that year, which sold out in some crazily small amount of time.  But, 2017-S Silver Eagle aside, all of the coins in the Limited Edition sets are available outside of it in other offerings which are more economical.  Even the Silver Eagle aspect may be a short term advantage when you look at what younger collectors are doing. 

Let's define younger collectors as Millennial and younger, so birth dates of 1980 and later, though I'd say these collecting trends could be pushed back to collectors born as early as 1975 or so.  While Silver Eagles are very popular coins right now, from what I've seen it's mostly older collectors pursuing them.  This is the case with most US coin series.  Younger collectors seem to tend to collect in one of three ways: thematic/topical collections, type sets or, when they do series collect, it tends to be in non-US series.  So, most younger collectors are likely to acquire a single Silver Eagle if it fits a thematic or type collection.  While silver coins and non-circulating legal tender (NCLT) are hot, Silver Eagles are viewed as one of the least exciting offerings in that regard.  Silver Eagles have had the same design for over 30 years and the only variety that the US Mint can seem to offer is different finishes or different mint marks on the same, old tired design.  And, even worse, the Silver Eagle is itself a retread of an older design, the Walking Liberty Half Dollar.  This is a coin that collectors who started in the 1950's and 1960's could likely remember as a circulation find, giving them a connection to it.  Younger collectors do not have that connection to the Walking Liberty design and they never will, which also hurts the Silver Eagle.  There are so many competing options for one ounce silver coins out there with exciting designs, changing designs every year, better themes, lower mintages.....all of this combines to hurt the Silver Eagle in the long term.  Compared to many World silver coins, the Silver Eagle looks old, tired and boring by this point.  I honestly think that while there are some US Modern Series which have better prospects, the future of the Silver Eagle isn't as bright unless a redesign is undertaken and some other things are done to make it exciting again. 

Purchasing the Limited Edition Sets is basically spending a lot of money for some fancy packaging, which makes less sense now than it ever did as more and more collectors actually seek certified coins, so the coins aren't even in the overpriced, fancy packaging anymore.  If NGC and PCGS stopped marking labels as Limited Edition Set and didn't include slots for coins marked as such in their Registries, the demand would be even lower than it is now.  The only entities who actually profit from the Limited Edition Sets are the US Mint, which we all know is more than happy to overcharge buyers for things like fancy packaging, and the grading services, who have an opportunity to add the same coin into a Registry Set twice and thusly grade more coins.  But the grading services aren't truly the problem.  They are just reacting to what the US Mint is doing.  The US Mint is the problem.  As for the seller you mention, there is such a thing as cutting one's losses.  Maybe this is a seller who attempted a flip that didn't work out well for him and he's just trying to get out of the sets with as little damage as possible.  That's what I think is going on.  He's trying to get out from under them.  I really think that these Limited Edition Sets are some of the biggest losers from a mint that continues to put out a long string of losers with the occasional winner here and there.  I'd stay away from them and I do stay away from them.

 

 

 

[Matt_dac]

Considering the feedback volume for this seller, I would have no problem buying from them.

Maybe the seller needs to cash out some inventory, even if at a small loss, for other priorities.

[investinrehabs]

Mohawk, you made some excellent points that I never thought about. I sincerely appreciate the lengthily explanation. The limited set packaging is very  nice. But I don't want to pay an arm and a leg for a nice package. Personally, I love the design of the Eagle. I prefer the reverse proofs but I haven't been collecting that long. I also liked the Liberty's....(showing my age!). But the more I analyze the eagle, the less attractive it gets. The production levels are typically unlimited, so collecting them hoping for an increase in value, doesn't seem likely. The "S" eagle was nice. I would love to see them come out with a couple different limited edition eagles in the same year. I'm not sure what the difference in design would be or could be, but that would really perk things up. They just raised the '19 silver proof eagle by 2 bucks. Then they wonder why their overall sales are lagging! 

[Mohawk]

6 hours ago, investinrehabs said:

Mohawk, you made some excellent points that I never thought about. I sincerely appreciate the lengthily explanation. The limited set packaging is very  nice. But I don't want to pay an arm and a leg for a nice package. Personally, I love the design of the Eagle. I prefer the reverse proofs but I haven't been collecting that long. I also liked the Liberty's....(showing my age!). But the more I analyze the eagle, the less attractive it gets. The production levels are typically unlimited, so collecting them hoping for an increase in value, doesn't seem likely. The "S" eagle was nice. I would love to see them come out with a couple different limited edition eagles in the same year. I'm not sure what the difference in design would be or could be, but that would really perk things up. They just raised the '19 silver proof eagle by 2 bucks. Then they wonder why their overall sales are lagging! 

I'm always glad to help and offer things I've learned from my experiences.  As far as making the Eagle exciting again, I think it needs an overhaul.  I think the US Mint should look at some of the popular coins that other mints are doing and see what the themes are on the popular coins and then find a way to make a coin featuring similar themes, but with an American twist.  This could be a lot of things......new, modern depictions of Liberty, rotating designs, famous American animals (animal coins are some of the most popular, and they likely always will be)....there are a lot of things that could be done to spruce up the Eagle program.  However, the US Mint would really need some outside talent to make it fresh, or we'd likely end up with something that's even worse than what's on the Eagle now.  I mean, look at recent commemorative series......there have been a few very nice ones.  The 2008 Bald Eagle program and the 2012 Star-Spangled Banner Silver Dollar come immediately to mind.  I'd say the same thing about the Apollo ones that just came out if they weren't curved and didn't feature a freakin' 5 ounce puck of a commemorative!  The US Mint did two things right here: a good design and .999 fine silver composition finally.  But they did more things wrong here and made it too gimmicky, including a $54 dollar set with two clad coins, one of which is a Reverse Proof of an old design which already has seen two Reverse Proof issues in 90% Silver, in more of that pricey fancy packaging, along with making the coins curved and making that ridiculous 5 ounce monstrosity.  This was a program which could have been significant and done with class,making it memorable in all positive ways, but it seems like the US Mint has to always find a way to screw it up these days.  Even when you have a program that is historically significant with good designs, the US Mint finds a way to screw it all up.  And the majority of recent commem series haven't had these advantages that the Apollo series did.  The Five Star General series was about the ugliest group of coins I've ever seen.  Arguably historically significant, yes, but absolutely hideous.  And there there are my all time "favorites" the US Marshalls series.  I mean, who wants to spend almost $30 on a clad half dollar featuring a US Marshall looking intently at a member of the Village People (nothing against the Village People, mind you.  It's just best way to describe what the coin looks like to me) and some poor horse who seems embarrassed to be there?  Not me. It just looks......weird.  Maybe the Marshall is trying out for the band..........

As far as the Eagles, I think if you like them and you're going to collect them, the Reverse Proofs are a good way to go.  There's only four of them and they all have relatively limited mintages for a Silver Eagle.  It's a nice small set with some things that make it stand out from the overall Silver Eagle crowd.  And, are you really surprised about that price increase?  The US Mint will raise things up because they can.  And, in addition to the $2 price increase, there's a West Point AND a San Francisco Proof, so a series collector has to buy two instead of one!  You just have to love the US Mint.......they love to find a cash cow and then milk it to death.

 

[Mohawk]

Quote

The only coin I ever made money on was a 1983 East German 20 mark commemorative with Martin Luther.  It was thanks to NGC's price guide that I was able to realize it was worth 5 times more than any of the commemoratives around it.  I'm still not sure why.  The mintages are similar.  My guess is, people just enjoy the irony of a communist country, suppressing all religions, but making a commemorative coin to a religious leader.

Actually, I think I can help you with that one.  I collect East German myself, and the mintages often don't tell you much.  This is what I've heard regarding this issue.  The Martin Luther 20 mark was not a popular coin within East Germany or the Communist Bloc at all, which was East Germany's main market for commemorative coins.  I think that it was just a little too close to the first Nazi commemorative, also featuring Martin Luther, in addition to the religion thing. This means a lot of these remained in banks and the Berlin Mint for years, sitting unsold until the German Reunification.  Once Reunification happened, remaining East German coins were all melted and sold for scrap for base metal or recycled into later German collector issues for silver, circulation issues and commemoratives alike.  When the time came to scrap the East German coins, most of the Martin Luther 20 Marks were sitting in the banks and the Berlin Mint and were scrapped.  Years later, when East German commemoratives became hot, it was discovered that there were very few Martin Luther 20 Marks left as they had all been melted and recycled into newer German silver coins.  Irony has nothing to do with it, it's simple scarcity.  Almost none survived and anyone collecting East German 20 Marks as a series needed one.  It's simple supply and demand.  Yesterday's pariah coin that was destroyed in large numbers became today's sought after rarity.

[Mohawk]

8 minutes ago, Lancek said:

Thanks, but now your making me wish I held onto it.

Nah, don't feel bad.  There's better coins for the money, I'd say.  The Luther one is East Germany's worst, in my humble opinion.  I would have done the same thing.  I like East German, but I can do without ol' Marty in my collection.  Research him a bit......he's really not worth commemorating.  Let's just say the Nazi commemorative of him was more fitting to the man, shall we say.  He'd have been more pleased by them than by the East Germans for sure.

[Conder101]

11 hours ago, investinrehabs said:

Can anyone give me a valid explanation??

One possibility is he didn't buy them from the mint but bought it over the counter from a collector.  These are not hot items and the mint as you say is still selling them.  So if a dealer is going to buy one over the counter he is NOT going to offer a lot, maybe $125.  After all he knows he may have it for awhile, and his best chance to move it on will be to offer it for less than the mint is selling for.  Hence the low offer.

[Mohawk]

11 hours ago, Conder101 said:

One possibility is he didn't buy them from the mint but bought it over the counter from a collector.  These are not hot items and the mint as you say is still selling them.  So if a dealer is going to buy one over the counter he is NOT going to offer a lot, maybe $125.  After all he knows he may have it for awhile, and his best chance to move it on will be to offer it for less than the mint is selling for.  Hence the low offer.

That's another highly possible explanation for the price on those sets as well.  The amount of interest in these sets is small, but if they came in a lot of other things that a dealer was offered over the counter, I can see why he'd pick them up in the lot and just throw them on eBay and get what he can out of them.