When Krause just says "RARE"

[physics-fan3.14]

You know that feeling when you buy a coin, and the only thing Krause says is "Rare." Yeah, I love that feeling. 

I haven't bought too many coins this year, but one of them I did get was this little piece. It is from Morocco, and is called a "Benduqi". It is gold, and is about the size of a US dime. Everyone I've ever seen is crudely struck, and dates from the 1240's and 1250's are much more common. This one is from 1277 AH (which translates to 1860 AD). The only thing Krause has to say about this coin is that it is rare. 

[World Colonial]

Only those who know the coin or series well will actually know if the coin is rare, assuming they don't have a tendency to exaggerate.  I wouldn't place too much reliance on Krause for an accurate assessment of the scarcity anymore than I would on the prices.  And when I use the word rare, I am equally not referring to the definition widely used in US collecting today.  Most coins considered "rare" by most US collectors are far from it.  "Rare" as used by most US collectors usually = common.

[physics-fan3.14]

That is a good point, WC. However, I have spent a lot of time studying the coinage of Morocco. I have searched auction records, and I've seen 2 other examples of this date. Krause usually has at least some mintage data - but in this case it doesn't. If there has been a couple of sales in the last few decades, Krause will extrapolate a value - but in this case it doesn't. 

I'm familiar with the US coin collectors perspective of "rare" - 1909S VDB, 1916D, 1955 DDO...... those aren't rare. 

In this case, however, it seems like there might be a dozen pieces, maybe. It doesn't matter what standard you use, I'd call that rare. 

[World Colonial]

19 minutes ago, physics-fan3.14 said:

That is a good point, WC. However, I have spent a lot of time studying the coinage of Morocco. I have searched auction records, and I've seen 2 other examples of this date. Krause usually has at least some mintage data - but in this case it doesn't. If there has been a couple of sales in the last few decades, Krause will extrapolate a value - but in this case it doesn't. 

I'm familiar with the US coin collectors perspective of "rare" - 1909S VDB, 1916D, 1955 DDO...... those aren't rare. 

In this case, however, it seems like there might be a dozen pieces, maybe. It doesn't matter what standard you use, I'd call that rare. 

I wasn't singling you out or this coin.  It was just a general statement.

I am aware that you collect Morocco coinage.  I don't know how scarce it is but I would expect coinage from this country from the mid 19th century (1860 here) to be at least somewhat scarce.  Gold coinage probably more so under the presumption that the mintage was quite low.

I have looked at a lot of coins regularly from a wide variety of countries and series.  Not as much as I did in the past but still a lot more than most collectors.  I look at many auction firms, dealer websites, eBay and the TPG population data.  However, with thousands of series, it's impossible for anyone to be really knowledgeable in more than a few or a very low proportion.

One of the things that would be quite surprising to most collectors if they researched the subject is just how available most actually are even in the population reports. 

Recently, as a result of a comment by another contributor, I performed a search in the NGC census for the coinage of the CAR.  This is quite a popular (as in many collectors like the design) series and many of the coins are quite scarce.  However, there are a lot more of the 2R, 2E, 4E and 8E in high grades (AU and MS) than I would have expected.  These coins are legitimately rare or at least very scarce, but it's way more than I have ever seen in my searches.

With respect to mintages, your experience is the opposite of mine.  I am not aware of hardly any mintage records for any of the coins I collect, except South Africa.  The Latin coinage I collect I have almost never seen it.

I know the survival rates for much of the coinage I collect is low or really low, though this varies for quality.  What I don't know is the starting point from the mintage data.  What I can say is that the coins I want to collect the most are a lot scarcer than is implied by Krause.

I've mentioned pillar minors from Bolivia, Guatemala and Peru.  Bolivia isn't absolutely rare but unlike the vast majority of US, there is every reason to believe the survivors in any collectible condition (not damaged) are low or really low.  Peru and Guatemala, even more so outside of a low number of Peru dates from the 1750's.

Another series I collect is the quarter real issued in six countries from 1796-1823.  The Chile coinage is almost impossible to buy, outside of the common 1817 and the still quite scarce 1818.  The ANS collection is mostly complete but I have never seen hardly any of the other dates in any grade.  I presume proportionately many more are out there somewhere, but also not in any quality hardly any collector will want to buy.

This post is for world coins, but in looking at the PCGS Coin Facts estimates, there appears to be no possibility in reconciling the TPG counts to the estimated survivors for many of the rarest and scarcest US coins.  Coin Facts states 35 1802 half dimes are confirmed, yet the combined TPG count is 15 with presumably numerous duplicates.  One being the three AU-50 in the NGC census.

[Mohawk]

I love that feeling too!  And since I have terrible luck posting pics directly to the board, here's a link to my Rare on the Registry......Ottoman Empire 1327/7 KM-761 20 Para:

https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/WCM/CoinView.aspx?PeopleSetCoinID=1919374

Congrats on your pickup Physics-fan!

[World Colonial]

Over time as more data becomes available, it will become a lot more evident which coins are actually scarce and which coins are more common or a lot more common than collectors believe, including to those who collect a particular coin or series.

Recently in a prior post, I mentioned that there are noticeable numbers in "high quality" for the First Jewish Revolt sheckel (66-70 AD), medieval French deniers and English pennies, the Mexican Carlos & Johanna 4R and the Mexico 1754 pillar dollar.   I have also seen more Byzantine silver and bronze in high quality than I expected to exist.  If this coinage is available with this supply, then the overwhelming percentage of others are almost certainly a lot more available than most believe.

I don't believe most estimates of scarcity are very accurate and this includes any claims by Krause.  PCGS Coin Facts has many inconsistencies between different series, even aside from the difficulty in reconciling their estimates to the population data.  In one of many examples, in at least one listing, Heritage cites an estimate of 50 for the 1941H Sarawak cent; probably an outdated claim from some specialist in the coinage of that region which has never been updated.  Since the combined count was 42 last time I checked and I don't believe hardly any duplicates are included, I'll stick with my prior claim of at least several hundred.  SA Union coinage though definitely relatively scarce is usually a lot more common than practically all collectors in that country used to (and probably still do) believe.

Personal experience (regardless of who it is) is generally not representative of scarcity.  For world coinage, the disproportionately low prices don't provide much incentive to offer it for sale.  For more recent coinage (arbitrarily the last century), a noticeable proportion (maybe most of it) is also potentially owned by those who don't know what they have and don't really care.

Many scarce or rare coins are going to be from obscure countries with limited collecting and low mintages due to population and economics.  For (somewhat) older coins, limited travel and communication was also a factor.  The combination of these reasons accounts for the apparent scarcity for many of the coins I collect.  Most of this coinage probably never left its jurisdiction, there were (almost) no collectors and it circulated for a long time or was melted.  Alternatively, it was much easier for much older coins from Europe and Asia to find it's way to someone who preserved it, even if they weren't a collector.

[physics-fan3.14]

Cool coin, Mohawk, and I liked your description. 

And WC, you are definitely right about coins from obscure countries not travelling as far. For my Moroccan coins, I've found a good number of them in Spain, some in France, and not many beyond that. 

[World Colonial]

7 minutes ago, physics-fan3.14 said:

Cool coin, Mohawk, and I liked your description. 

And WC, you are definitely right about coins from obscure countries not travelling as far. For my Moroccan coins, I've found a good number of them in Spain, some in France, and not many beyond that. 

I don't really consider Morocco that obscure.  It's considered obscure from a numismatic perspective but not historically.  It's also a place many geographically challenged Americans don't know or aren't familiar with but most Europeans presumably do which is where the majority of collectors outside the United States are presumably concentrated.  Additionally, though I don't know how far back its coinage dates without checking, it was within the sphere of world trade from at least the time of the Roman Empire if not before it.

For the coin you profiled in your original post, I suspect the mintage was quite low or very low.  Combine it with no organized local collecting and that's probably why it's rare.  A few ended up elsewhere to be preserved but not many.

[Mohawk]

8 hours ago, physics-fan3.14 said:

Cool coin, Mohawk, and I liked your description. 

And WC, you are definitely right about coins from obscure countries not travelling as far. For my Moroccan coins, I've found a good number of them in Spain, some in France, and not many beyond that. 

Thanks for the kind words.  And, if I didn't say it before, I like yours Physics-fan!  It's a really cool find, and as you can tell, I like coins from that part of the world.  The Islamic coins have an intricacy and beauty to them that is very unique to that part of the world.  Are you going to send your Benduqi in to NGC?

~Tom