Type coin pricing between 2014-2017

[Prethen]

I have not been very active in buying/selling in the last couple of years and I've been sort of scarce at coin shows, so I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the coin market in relation to prices of type coins. I've noticed from the handful of examples of circulated grades across coins like 2-cent and 3-cent pieces that prices have been falling since around 2014. I used Numismedia.com as a site to get a relative picture of current coin values and noticed their charts for the coin series I was looking at all peak around the same time period...around 2014 and then start dropping off a bit. This happened to things like Proof 3CN and oddly enough (not based on Numismedia, but on coin dealer prices), I've seen key date Lincoln cents softening.

So, my question is this...what happened around 2014 and what's going on with the current coin market? Overall, it appears the type market has been softening. I realize that probably superlative pieces, rare specimens, and various grades in certain series might be doing stellar, but I'm talking about the material that most of us normally collect.

[numisport]

I think several factors should be considered. Gradeflation has an effect on all coins across the board and not just type. Carefully picked coins can be bargains I think and I like coins in older holders. However watch out for scratched or otherwise damaged holders that can hide problems. These overgraded coins are a scourge to the hobby and there is no way to get them regraded. They will just continue to be recirculated at auctions being purchased by uninformed buyers. Another factor affecting price declines is demand. The way I see it, gradeflation has in part caused some reduction in numbers of active buyers. I sense some of this feeling in contributors to this forum. I still am an active buyer when I locate accurately graded coins I am looking for.

[BillJones]

I have found that locating the coins I want in old holders is getting increasingly difficult. Most of the pieces I’ve purchased over the last year and a half have been in the new “thick” PCGS holders that only fit caddy cornered in the NGC boxes.

The incentive for getting the coins into these new holders becomes obvious, grade-flation. I have been able to trace some of the coins I have purchased and have found that many of them were previously in PCGS holders with lower grades on them.

The worst example that I did purchase was an 1834 Classic Head $5 gold with the crosslet 4 that is in a PCGS MS-61 holder. Previously it had been in a PCGS AU-58 holder, which is where it belonged. If I had been grading it I would have considered the AU-55 grade.

Why did I buy this over graded coin at an inflated price? RARITY. There are only about 125 of these coins known (as opposed to the much more common Plain 4 variety). Most of the survivors grade VF and EF. I wanted a coin that would fit in my Choice AU to low end Mint State set. Sticking an EF in that slot just would not have looked right. So I paid the freight, which after some negotiations with the dealer, came down to Gray Sheet MS-60 bid. He had once wanted a full retail price for the coin which was about $8 thousand more.

Correspondences with experts in the Classic Head gold field indicated that the Mint State population reports are inflated by crack-outs and resubmissions. Therefore there are fewer examples of this coin than one might think if you read the population reports.

The result is the prices seem to have come down, but what you have to remember is that the MS-61 or 62 you could have bought years ago might now be an MS-63 or 64. Similarly many AUs have now become Mint State. You don’t get as much coin as you used to in the MS-61 and 62 grades. Therefore the prices are lower, but the people who get the inflated grades are still getting higher prices for what they have.

[Zebo]

That's sad - grade inflation that is. Most of my collection is in the older holders and are being left behind. 

[World Colonial]

8 hours ago, Prethen said:

I have not been very active in buying/selling in the last couple of years and I've been sort of scarce at coin shows, so I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the coin market in relation to prices of type coins. I've noticed from the handful of examples of circulated grades across coins like 2-cent and 3-cent pieces that prices have been falling since around 2014. I used Numismedia.com as a site to get a relative picture of current coin values and noticed their charts for the coin series I was looking at all peak around the same time period...around 2014 and then start dropping off a bit. This happened to things like Proof 3CN and oddly enough (not based on Numismedia, but on coin dealer prices), I've seen key date Lincoln cents softening.

So, my question is this...what happened around 2014 and what's going on with the current coin market? Overall, it appears the type market has been softening. I realize that probably superlative pieces, rare specimens, and various grades in certain series might be doing stellar, but I'm talking about the material that most of us normally collect.

If you are referring to the types of coins predominantly bought by forum members here or on PCGS, then gradeflation makes sense as a contributing factor.  If this is happening to the general US coin market, it doesn't. 

My explanation for it is that there is little or no incremental flow of funds into coins by US based collectors since 2014 and little if any even prior to that, probably since at least 2008.  Funds which otherwise used to go into this coinage instead are used to buy NCLT which world mints keep on producing and to a much lower degree, world coinage.  NCLT because it is a lot more liquid financially and world coinage because most US coins aren't remotely numismatically competitive at equivalent price points.

[BillJones]

1 hour ago, Zebo said:

That's sad - grade inflation that is. Most of my collection is in the older holders and are being left behind. 

Those holders will be left behind, but mostly on the crack-out table as their new owners will break them out in hopes of getting higher grades. From what I've seen, they will not be disappointed.

The coin grading business has reached its mature phase in the product life cycle. The only truly new material is the new stuff from the mint. Much of the rest is a rehash of the old stuff, and to attract buyers, grade-flation is the solution.

For those of you who think that CAC is the bulwark against this, think again. CAC is part of the game. I’ve seen new holders with grade-flation grades and CAC stickers.

[physics-fan3.14]

I think it largely depends on what sector of the market you're looking at. If you're looking for original early US type, it's hot. If you're looking for quality, high grade 20th century type, it's hot. 

If you're looking for 2, 3 cent, classic commems, or other "unpopular" series..... they are not hot. 

The coin market has been generally strong the past couple of years (stronger than 2014, anyways), so across the board things should be a bit better if you've got original, eye appealing material. 

[Six Mile Rick]

Justin is correct. The series you see that is dropping in sales is no longer the heat of the collection. Many collectors are into more modern series and I see many high cost sales lately. The coin collecting cash flow has simply moved to other series.

[World Colonial]

10 hours ago, Six Mile Rick said:

Justin is correct. The series you see that is dropping in sales is no longer the heat of the collection. Many collectors are into more modern series and I see many high cost sales lately. The coin collecting cash flow has simply moved to other series.

I presume you are referring primarily if not exclusively to condition census coins or others in currently in favor specialization such as toning.  My review of the Heritage archives doesn't indicate it applies to other US modern coins.

[Six Mile Rick]

Luckily Heritage is very picky on what they want to auction live. I listed the returned coins that Heritage refused for live auctions and got some great sales. I sell coins all year so my indication is based on the sales I get and the collectors I talk to. ---- not Heritage. 

 Justin is in the same way as he sells coins all year. We see who is looking and who is buying. We know what is selling in our corner. My next submission will be Roosevelt dimes. If it is selling --- then I am submitting!! 

[Prethen]

I appreciate all the comments. Perhaps the number of comments on gradeflation might explain why I'm seeing things like Proof 3CN going down. I'm just a bit dismayed to see the coins that I've been collecting (mostly purchased 12-15+ years ago) are at the same levels, if not maybe a little lower than where I purchased them at. Such is life. I'm looking to refine my collection by selling off much of what I collected and retain much smaller core of that collection. I'm just starting to research pricing which is how I discovered the turn of market. 

[RWB]

RE: "The coin grading business has reached its mature phase in the product life cycle. The only truly new material is the new stuff from the mint. Much of the rest is a rehash of the old stuff, and to attract buyers, grade-flation is the solution.

For those of you who think that CAC is the bulwark against this, think again. CAC is part of the game. I’ve seen new holders with grade-flation grades and CAC stickers."

 

On the nose! Hence, the proliferation of special labels, custom labels, TV-junk labels and holder configurations. Establishing and maintaining standards vanished with decreasing submissions of new materials. The outcome is inflated pricing, which is bound to collapse. The price reductions the OP observed are better thought of as returns to a more realistic set of value.

[World Colonial]

11 hours ago, RWB said:

On the nose! Hence, the proliferation of special labels, custom labels, TV-junk labels and holder configurations. Establishing and maintaining standards vanished with decreasing submissions of new materials. The outcome is inflated pricing, which is bound to collapse. The price reductions the OP observed are better thought of as returns to a more realistic set of value.

The broader US series is and has been the least affordable market on the planet to its collector base for at least as long as I have been alive, if not from the beginning of mass market collecting in this country in the 1930's.  An outsized percentage of type coins, series and individual coins are not affordable to a much higher proportion of the collector base in the US than anywhere else.

The OP used the example of the  and 3CN.  Well, these two coins (as type or a series) are more affordable than most other US coins but still not competitive versus the overwhelming percentage of coins from elsewhere.  There should be no surprise that either has either stagnated or lost value, whether from 2014 or earlier.   The general trend of a narrowing preference among US collectors for a smaller and smaller percentage of coins, specialization and higher grades is consistent with the price performance of US coins such as these two.

In the internet age with the option to choose from at least 250,000 coins and maybe 10,000 series, there are much better values for the money.

[coinman_23885]

On 11/27/2017 at 8:20 PM, physics-fan3.14 said:

The coin market has been generally strong the past couple of years (stronger than 2014, anyways), so across the board things should be a bit better if you've got original, eye appealing material. 

The market is improving, but from what I have seen, the prices are still 30-40% back of what the same coins sold for a few years ago.  In particular, I am thinking about gem generic 19th century type.