Hypothetical Sales/Pricing/Auction Question...

[TonerGuy]

I am not selling anything but I am curious as to the thoughts of the rest of the Forum...

 

This applies to toners graded by NGC only.

 

Hypo - you can bid on & purchase one coin but not both...

 

1) an MS 66* with beautiful multicolor rainbow toning or

 

2) an MS 67 with nice toning but not "wow" color...

 

The non-toned white coin sheet of the MS 66 is $150 and the sheet on a white MS 67 is $500. Both coins are solid for the grade. Neither are CAC. (the coin is whatever you want it to be or collect)

 

Which coin would you prefer to have in your collection ?

 

If you are so inclined - what would be your max bid on each coin ?

 

If you arent inclined to bid - which coin do you think will realize a higher sales price ?

 

I know this is far from a perfect hypothetical but ask questions and I will answer. Or point out what facts/info are important to you to make a decision. Ultimately I would like to know which coin is more desirable and what is FMV.

 

 

[Walkerfan]

If you're just going after registry points----the 67 would be better.

 

If you like eye appeal, then I'd likely choose the 66 *

 

I, myself, think that I'd go for the 66*, especially if it realized less $$$ at auction, which it might, although some stars command a big premium.

 

Hard to say what I'd bid. I once paid almost 6K for a 3K coin 'cause I 'liked' it (and that's nothing, as there are guys who spend & reach WAAAAYYYY more than that-----it's whatever you are comfortable with). If I really liked it; I'd be willing to really reach like that again.

[coinman_23885]

Which coin would you prefer to have in your collection ?

 

The one that I thought was the most eye appealing.

 

If you are so inclined - what would be your max bid on each coin ?

 

There is no way to even begin to estimate without seeing images of some sort. What you consider eye appealing, I might hate. What I consider eye appealing, you might hate. Also, there are varying degrees of "great" or "wow" eye appeal that can only be determined by images.

 

If you arent inclined to bid - which coin do you think will realize a higher sales price ?

There are far too many variables missing. See above.

 

I know this is far from a perfect hypothetical but ask questions and I will answer. Or point out what facts/info are important to you to make a decision. Ultimately I would like to know which coin is more desirable and what is FMV.

 

I know collectors have a tendency to want everything in a price guide and view them as written in stone, but the pricing of coins is a spectrum that is too nuanced to estimate FMV in either of the scenarios you provided more information, and mostly importantly, images.

 

[MarkFeld]

This hypothetical is pretty much worthless without excellent images.

[TonerGuy]

Okay I was afraid the hypothetical wouldnt work here...

 

Im not asking about particular coins. There are no photos to show.

 

Thats why I said it can be a coin you collect... Walkerfan got it - and thank you.

 

The issue I am really asking about is - would you rather have a lower graded * coin with great eye appeal or a higher graded coin without a * and less eye appeal.

 

And would you be willing to pay more than the next grade up for MS66* or should the price of the MS67 limit it.

 

For example would you pay $1500 for the MS66* which is 10x sheet or would you be wiling to pay $1500 for the MS67 which is 3x sheet ?

 

In other words how far can a * take a coin in price ? Is it limitless or at some point do you think "gee I can get a MS68" coin for the price of this MS66* coin."

 

Or do none of these calculations work themselves into your purchasing decisions as Walkerfan pointed out ?

 

 

[coinman_23885]

In other words how far can a * take a coin in price ? Is it limitless or at some point do you think "gee I can get a MS68" coin for the price of this MS66* coin."

 

Again, it all depends.

 

You mentioned toning, so let's look at two hypothetical situations, which point to just one flaw with your underlying methodology and shows the effect of a variable (price vs. generic value) in star premium:

 

1) Coin 1 - The coin has an average value of $2 for a generic piece, but this one has one of a kind rainbow toning and you are unlikely to ever find another one as nice. The value of the next grade up is $4. The coin of interest has been certified by NGC and received a star designation for superior eye appeal. The buyer is asking $20 for it.

 

2) Coin 2 - This coin has an average value of $2,000 for a generic piece, but this one has one of a kind rainbow toning and you are unlikely to ever find one as nice. The value of the next grade up is $4,000. The coin of interest has been certified by NGC and received a star designation for superior eye appeal. The buyer is asking $20,000 for it. The quality of the toning, series, and approximate date range are the same as coin #1.

 

I would venture to say that there will be more of a market (in terms of the number of willing buyers and participants at that level) for coin #1 than coin #2 although the proportion of the price differences are equal, the absolute difference in price ($20-$2) and ($20,000-$2,000) is phenomenal. More people are going to be willing to risk $18 than to risk $18,000. Considering liquidity and the market equilibrium, the market is more likely (IMO) to tolerate the asking price of coin 1 than coin 2. That is to say, the "multiplier" you attempted to use is dependent on price with higher grades and larger price spreads offering diminishing returns in terms of percentage or multiple of the premium versus generic counterpart.

[coinman_23885]

And would you be willing to pay more than the next grade up for MS66* or should the price of the MS67 limit it.

 

The limit is what the coin is worth to me personally, and what I think the market will bear should I ever be forced to liquidate it. In some cases, that may mean that I would pay the value of the next grade up or less. In some circumstances, I would be willing to pay more (a certain Capped Bust Half that Mark Feld pointed out comes to mind).

 

Since you are interested in star designated coins, let's also look at the following (I use cameo contrasts for illustration purposes, but you could substitute any trait in that you wanted and the premise still holds):

 

Generic Coin X1 - (PF65 - $100); (PF66-$105); (PF67-$250); (PF-68-$350)

Cameo Coin X1 - (PF65 - $4,000); (PF66 - $8,000) (PF67-$20,000)

 

Generic Coin X2 - (PF65 - $100); (PF66-$10,000); (PF67-$15,000); (PF-68-$25,000)

Cameo Coin X2 - (PF65 - $1,500); (PF66 - $20,000) (PF67-$25,000)

 

We are presented with coin "A" that exhibits excellent cameo contrasts, is spot free, and premium quality for the grade; however, the contrasts are not quite enough for a designated piece. Nevertheless, the coin is very close and most would consider it a "borderline" coin in terms of the designation. Designated pieces with full cameo contrasts are exceedingly rare. What would you be willing to pay for coin "A" if it was coin type "X1"? What would you be willing to pay for coin "A" if it was coin type "X2"?

 

For me, I might not have any reservations about paying even generic PF68 price for coin "A" if it was coin type "X1" even if the technical grade was only a PF65 because of the excellent cameo contrasts. I would not pay anywhere near generic PF66 money for a contrasted PF65 example of coin type "X2". Again, there are too many variables at play.

[MarkFeld]

Okay I was afraid the hypothetical wouldnt work here...

 

Im not asking about particular coins. There are no photos to show.

 

Thats why I said it can be a coin you collect... Walkerfan got it - and thank you.

 

The issue I am really asking about is - would you rather have a lower graded * coin with great eye appeal or a higher graded coin without a * and less eye appeal.

 

And would you be willing to pay more than the next grade up for MS66* or should the price of the MS67 limit it.

 

For example would you pay $1500 for the MS66* which is 10x sheet or would you be wiling to pay $1500 for the MS67 which is 3x sheet ?

 

In other words how far can a * take a coin in price ? Is it limitless or at some point do you think "gee I can get a MS68" coin for the price of this MS66* coin."

 

Or do none of these calculations work themselves into your purchasing decisions as Walkerfan pointed out ?

 

 

It's not about how far a star can take a coin in price - it's how far the coin's appearance and the buyer's wallet can or will take it in price.

 

You sound as if you are fixated on stars. Like coins of the same grade, not all of them are created equally. And in the eyes of some beholders, not all of them are deserved.

[RWB]

Opinions vary - even in astrologicalnumismatology.

[TonerGuy]

It's not about how far a star can take a coin in price - it's how far the coin's appearance and the buyer's wallet can or will take it in price.

 

You sound as if you are fixated on stars. Like coins of the same grade, not all of them are created equally. And in the eyes of some beholders, not all of them are deserved.

 

I agree with you to a degree. I think a * will carry a price for a coin beyond just a price for the toning - deserved or not, with limitations. It is still a designation that is given beyond just a grade.

 

There is a sheet price for white coins with little to no toning. There is a price guide for + coins now. There is a price guide for other designations... FB, FS, FH, FT ect... Even the example CAM/UCAM designation that Coinman gave has a price guide.

 

The one designation that doesnt lend itself to a price guide are * coins. And you are exactly correct that it is much more subjective than any of the other designations. Some stars are deserved and some are not, but the same could be said of any other designation. Some designated coins are not "all there" for the designation and that can be factored into pricing. A FS Jeff with a slight nick on the stairs might be priced 5-10% lower than the actual price guide for FS.

 

With * coins, and only in regards to toners, you first have to factor the price increase for toning and then perhaps another increase for the * designation. This is a very nebulous designation to attempt to price out. In proof coins * are much more common and are basically given out to coins that dont make the next step up cameo contrast. A PF69* is just a break short of a CAM and a PF69* CAM is just not quite frosty enough for a UCAM. So again those coins are easy to price.

 

I agree with what Coinman stated about * coins and he has worked out for himself a "formula" for coins with contrast. He's willing to go up 3 grades for the right X1 coin. But wont go that high on an X2 coin. That was the kind of analysis I was looking for but for * coins.

 

I think at some point a * will not add any increase in price.

 

And yes I am fixated on * coins because for what I like (toned Peace $) * coins are extremely rare and hard to find. Rarely do they come up for auction and they are almost impossible to "make."

 

Thank you all for contributing to a difficult topic to discuss. I appreciate all of your opinions.

[Crazy Mtn Coins]

Thanks for starting this thread, it was very interesting. So one question regarding either the + or * coins pricing estimates. Suppose the + or * is attached to a coin of the highest grade, how much value does that add to a coin? Even further, suppose the coin with the designation has a pop of one. I realize there are two approaches, registry points or simply for personal collection gains. So depending on your goal, the price you pay could vary.

[TonerGuy]

Thanks for starting this thread, it was very interesting. So one question regarding either the + or * coins pricing estimates. Suppose the + or * is attached to a coin of the highest grade, how much value does that add to a coin? Even further, suppose the coin with the designation has a pop of one. I realize there are two approaches, registry points or simply for personal collection gains. So depending on your goal, the price you pay could vary.

 

As for + coins I think it varies less. You wouldnt pay more than the next grade level for a + coin. In the instance of a pop 1 + coin on the highest grade I think thats a coin that should go to auction. There could/would be a fight for that coin for registry points. So it would be hard to say if the premium would be 10,20 or even 100% - I guess it depends on how bad a person wants bragging rights.

 

I think a * on the highest grade would bring less than a + though. On a less expensive coin the * may bring a 1000% increase in price.

[e1cnr]

what is a 'white coin sheet' price?

[Kurtdog]

I know. They just throw in everything. On the two coins, I'd have to think the 66 got starred for the color, if not, upped. That's market grading for you...

[TonerGuy]

Not my coin & I wasnt the buyer...

 

Here's a 1924 NGC MS65* toned Peace $ that just sold for $1625.00 - a 764% increase over a non-toned non * MS65 example...

 

Colorfully Toned Peace $

 

From my research this is one of the highest auction/sale prices for 1924 MS65*. This is the first auction sale of this coin.

 

For comparison purposes, a 23 MS65* sold for in June 2005 for $1740 at Goldberg. And another 23 MS65* sold for $3451.15 in October 2011 at Heritage.

 

As for 1924's I have auction records for a 1924 MS66* that sold for $2185.00 in March 2012 at Heritage and a MS66+* for $1840.00 in March 2011 at Heritage. But no MS65* info. A 24 MS64* sold for $565 on Ebay last year.

 

There are 8 1923 MS65* compared to 11 1924 MS65*.

 

Based on the photos and the info I have I have think this coin should have probably sold for $1100-$1200.

 

Here's a 22 NGC MS64* thats been for sale on EBay for months at $2300-$2900 with no takers.

 

22 with nice rim toning...

 

This coin is priced $2000 over the price that most 1922 MS64* coins have sold for over the past several years. Most MS64* have sold for $400-$700. There are 19 MS64*.

 

 

[coinman_23885]

Not my coin & I wasnt the buyer...

 

Here's a 1924 NGC MS65* toned Peace $ that just sold for $1625.00 - a 764% increase over a non-toned non * MS65 example...

 

Colorfully Toned Peace $

 

From my research this is one of the highest auction/sale prices for 1924 MS65*. This is the first auction sale of this coin.

 

For comparison purposes, a 23 MS65* sold for in June 2005 for $1740 at Goldberg. And another 23 MS65* sold for $3451.15 in October 2011 at Heritage.

 

As for 1924's I have auction records for a 1924 MS66* that sold for $2185.00 in March 2012 at Heritage and a MS66+* for $1840.00 in March 2011 at Heritage. But no MS65* info. A 24 MS64* sold for $565 on Ebay last year.

 

There are 8 1923 MS65* compared to 11 1924 MS65*.

 

Based on the photos and the info I have I have think this coin should have probably sold for $1100-$1200.

 

Here's a 22 NGC MS64* thats been for sale on EBay for months at $2300-$2900 with no takers.

 

22 with nice rim toning...

 

This coin is priced $2000 over the price that most 1922 MS64* coins have sold for over the past several years. Most MS64* have sold for $400-$700. There are 19 MS64*.

 

 

I think your data illustrates nicely what Mark Feld and I are trying to tell you - there is no magic formula or trend that you can derive from this. You could even attempt a regression analysis with your data, and I think you would be hard pressed to find a reliable formula with any statistical significance or correlation.

 

With regards to your other points, to be sure, coin grading and designations are subjective, but some designations are more subjective than others. The star designation is one of the more subjective designations in my opinion. The first problem is that NGC has defined it for coins with "exceptional eye appeal," which is fairly broad. Was the star due to toning, cameo contrasts, PL fields, blinding luster, etc.? And even if we limited the analysis to toners alone, storage conditions and other environmental factors create an infinite number of patterns, colors, and intensities that are too variable to blindly apply without images. At best, one can learn to price toners by looking at a large number of examples over time. There is no substitute for that, and I don't think a price guide is reliable (other than to say relative pricing for some types of toning - e.g. textile tends to sell for more than minor crescent toning, obverse toners sell for more than reverse toners, certain colors command larger premiums, or create huge ranges (textiles sell for X multiple to Y multiple, but vary tremendously).).

[TonerGuy]

Actually I havent shared all of my data and if I did you would see a pattern in the price of NGC * toned Peace $. I just posted a few. Im not studying stats, Im studying coins and prices. You cant use algorithms to decide price but you can see patterns.

 

I cant speak to all toners but I have 15 years of tracking prices of toned Peace $. I feel comfortable with my knowledge of that market than any other. I have pricing info on hundreds of toned Peace $ auctions. I have handled - bought/sold approximately 10-20% of the entire toned NGC * toned Peace $ population. I have made 5% of all of the current * toned Peace $.

 

If you dont agree with my premise then simply stop posting to my threads about this. I understand what you are saying. I appreciate your input but you dont need to repeat yourself. Thanks.

 

 

[MarkFeld]

Actually I havent shared all of my data and if I did you would see a pattern in the price of NGC * toned Peace $. I just posted a few. Im not studying stats, Im studying coins and prices. You cant use algorithms to decide price but you can see patterns.

 

I cant speak to all toners but I have 15 years of tracking prices of toned Peace $. I feel comfortable with my knowledge of that market than any other. I have pricing info on hundreds of toned Peace $ auctions. I have handled - bought/sold approximately 10-20% of the entire toned NGC * toned Peace $ population. I have made 5% of all of the current * toned Peace $.

 

If you dont agree with my premise then simply stop posting to my threads about this. I understand what you are saying. I appreciate your input but you dont need to repeat yourself. Thanks.

 

 

Michael, if you continue to post your opinions and examples, it is unfair to hope and/or ask that those who disagree, stop posting theirs.

[Conder101]

Which coin would you prefer to have in your collection ?

Whichever one I liked better.

 

The issue I am really asking about is - would you rather have a lower graded * coin with great eye appeal or a higher graded coin without a * and less eye appeal.

The grades are immaterial, it is a matter of liking one more. I may think the 67 has more eye appeal to me than the lower grade * coin. As I have mentioned before in my Conder token collection I have replaced MS pieces with XF's because they appealed to me more.

[TonerGuy]

The grades are immaterial, it is a matter of liking one more. I may think the 67 has more eye appeal to me than the lower grade * coin. As I have mentioned before in my Conder token collection I have replaced MS pieces with XF's because they appealed to me more.

 

Would that sentiment even apply to problem coins ?

 

For example in my area of specialty the most colorful Peace $ are sometimes cleaned and retoned examples. These coins would never grade in a problem free holder but they are beautiful additions to a collection raw.

 

Would you be willing to add problems coins that had superior eye appeal to your collection ? Whatever those problems might be ?

[Conder101]

Yes I would and I do have problem coins in my collection. Sure you would normally prefer a no problem coin to one with a problem, but if I like the way the problem coin looks more than the problem free one, Yes I will go with the problem coin. (But I also have no interest in future value. I collect simply because I enjoy it.)

[TonerGuy]

Yes I would and I do have problem coins in my collection. Sure you would normally prefer a no problem coin to one with a problem, but if I like the way the problem coin looks more than the problem free one, Yes I will go with the problem coin. (But I also have no interest in future value. I collect simply because I enjoy it.)

 

As we all should. I am doing the same. Im trying to put together a wildly toned (cleaned & retoned) XF-MS (details) raw toned Peace & year set in a Capitol Holder.

 

But interestingly enough I have seen AU toned Peace $ in PCGS/NGC slabs for big money... so I dont know how easy it will be to complete this set. Seems like any nicely toned Peace $ are bringing premiums, even circulated examples.