A coin grading experiment

[RWB]

At the next ANA show, I suggest a fun and informative coin grading experiment. This might be used to boost attendance at the exhibit area.

 

Take 1,000 Morgan dollars of the same date and mint (if possible) that have been graded by the same company.

 

Cover the labels so the assigned grades are not visible and assign each coin a random number.

 

Have several collectors and dealers, one at a time, place all (or maybe 100) of the coins into boxes labeled 60 through 68 including pluses.

 

After each person has finished, list the coins in each box by number. Repeat the experiment several times over the course of one or two days.

 

Tabulate the results and then correlate with the assigned grades on the coins.

 

What do YOU think will be the results?

 

(This could be repeated with dealers only, or professional graders only, or seeing-eye dogs, of maybe 12-year old kids, too.)

[jom]

The results? The 12-year-olds will do better.

 

jom

 

PS: I'm not kidding.

[AHFreak]

I think its a great idea... now I will just look forward, very eagerly I might add... to the day when I can even consider being able to readily afford what it is going to cost to buy 1000 Morgans let alone have them graded.... Even at bulk grading rates, that will be no small fee...

 

It is funny you mention this though, because last year I went to Long Beach in June, and attended the $150 dollar grading 1 class that PCGS offered... Part of the deal was that "David Hall" would come speak to the class.. Well, he did, and when somebody asked how they could learn how to grade, he actually told the class to go buy a bag of 1,000 Morgan dollars.. go through each one, and "grade it" write it down and track it... Then send those 1000 coins to PCGS and have them graded... see how close you were!!!!! I remember wondering if that was even remotely possible for anybody in that class... I mean, we are talking 50-60K for that from what I figure..

 

 

It would be a very fascinating and fun experiment.

[RWB]

You can practice by going through the boxes of 2x2 that many dealers have. See how you grade the coin compared to what's on the 2x2 - and also look for defects such as cleaning, damage or elephant droppings.

[19Lyds]

I expect that the results would be quite different on each pass simply because of the fact that coins which have been cracked and resubmitted, usually do not come back from TPG's bearing the same grades. On occasion they do, but many have taken advantage of the fact that they don't.

 

You know as well as I that coin grading is NOT exact nor is it absolute.

[Nutmeg Coin]

I heard of an experiment once at a big company where they had the lady secretaries grade a bunch of certified coins with the grade covered up with tape, and they were more accurate than the guys....Eye appeal often carries the day and coins with it get the CAC sticker, those without don't.

 

I was talking with one of the Parsippany show managers, Roxbury coin, and he said when NGC was still in NJ he had a bunch of Morgans that came back from grading that all had the same look, but the big money coin got a 64. So he drives over to NGC and a grader comes out and says well the 64 graded coin was a big money coin that's why it didn't get the gem grade. So he puts tape over all the Morgans that were graded 65 and the one that was graded 64. And Mark Salzberg comes out who has a phenomenal ability to grade, and he says yes they all should be 65s. Then he tells what the grader had said that they did not want to give it the big $$ 65 grade, maybe an 84s or 87s. So Salzberg says who was the grader? And of course he doesn't want to get him in trouble and refuses to tell on him. So he comes back a few minutes later and the 64 coin is in the proper 65 holder!

 

There is always some variability in grading; if you can get through the problem coin difficulties first, then the gradations with good images can nail down the grade pretty close, but there is some bias when a supposed sharp dealer has already supposedly done his due diligence before offering his raw coin at advantageous (to him) price levels.

[erwindoc]

I think it would be a good idea. Another variation would be to take different denominations, say Indian cents, Mercury dimes and Walking Liberty halves in addition to the Morgans.

[e1cnr]

I think you could do the same with 5 or 10 coins

 

How many hours would it take the typical person to put a score on 1000 coins?

[pcunix]

I think you could do the same with 5 or 10 coins

 

How many hours would it take the typical person to put a score on 1000 coins?

 

Actually, I think the more coins, the more accuracy. Most of us can judge side by side more easily than against pictures. The more we have to work with, the easier the fine distinctions become.

 

If you'd never seen an MS69 Morgan, you might think a nice 65 was it. But if you had a group of in betweens leading up, you might be more accurate.

 

But 1,000? Yeah, that would take a bit.

[RWB]

(The same could be done with coin dealers: put them in boxes labeled POOR, GOOD, FINE, Extremely FINE and UNC.)

[orifdoc]

It would be plenty interesting. I'm sure that even between professional graders there would be considerable variation. It's not really a science after all.

 

What would be very, very hard would be 1,000 Morgans with a few counterfeits, a few cleaned coins, some AT examples, some with subtle rim filing, a few tooled to cover up flaws, a few puttied coins, some AU58/MS64 fence-sitters, a bunch of mundane melt-value coins and few uber-keys worth a tens of thousands. Then tell them their reputation, their job, and essentially the entire value of the coins they graded is on the line if they screw it up.

 

Oh wait, that's what the pros do every day.........

 

It's pretty easy to sit back and point out a few flaws and occasional inconsistencies.

 

[Nutmeg Coin]

They say if you don't use it you lose it so theoretically the more coins you look at the better you become. I would strenuously disagree with that proposition though. Then why is there significant variation from grading company to grading company, bias? I doubt it, human error or variability, acuity of the eyes, mood, just too many factors to nail down accurately. Frankly I don't know any shop or show dealers in the this state and few in neighboring states that are close to accurate on how coins will grade. One major store dealer told me not to send a gold coin in for grading and it came back MS65. But that may not speak to generalized arguments of the need to make basic grading judgments.