• entries
    227
  • comments
    383
  • views
    3,798

The price swings sneak up on you...

0
Revenant

287 views

… when you deal with things that are priced close to melt anyway.

When I was shopping for an 1877 10G late last year the common dates in the series in MS65 and lower were going for about $275. That's not that much given that the coins had a melt value of about $242 with gold around $1200/oz.

I have an eBay saved search for these things that I keep active even at times like now when I'm not really actively hunting.

The other day a couple of auctions popped up for an MS61 1875 and MS62 1876. These are easily the two most common dates with the highest mintage and if it isn't MS65 it might as well not even be graded. Last year you would have been lucky to get $275 for these. So I laughed when I saw bidding starting at $350 for them.

Then I had to think about it...

With gold at about $1500/oz the melt on these things has gone up to about $300. So I still think $350 is a bit ambitious for these things - they're not going to recover those grading fees - but $325-330 is probably reasonable / achieve able and $350 isn't as crazy as I was thinking at first.

This window of cheap gold that we've been enjoying since about 2013/2014 might be closing for a while. (It fell from the highs in 2011 but it was coming down more gradually for a while after that.)

 

0


10 Comments


Recommended Comments

I'm with you.  It's tough to understand people buying modern mint gold when you can get coins about 100 years old or older in problem free uncirculated condition for the same, less, or barely more.  You have probably explained this already elsewhere, but why Netherlands gulden?

Share this comment


Link to comment

This has been painfully apparent to me as I own several gold coins that I bought during the last peak that I have wanted to sell for quite a while. Fortunately, I have not needed the money so I have held them all this time. That said I still have a little ways to go before I will break even. On the other side of the coin (pun intended) I have used the low prices of the last couple of years to complete my gold type set. 

Share this comment


Link to comment
7 hours ago, deposito said:

You have probably explained this already elsewhere, but why Netherlands gulden?

Click the link to the set and start reading when it says, "The reasonable question that might be asked is, “why this set?” "

https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetListing.aspx?PeopleSetID=83873

7 hours ago, deposito said:

I'm with you.  It's tough to understand people buying modern mint gold when you can get coins about 100 years old or older in problem free uncirculated condition for the same, less, or barely more. 

I own and enjoy some of the modern gold commems, including the Constitution / Bill of Rights bicentennials. I also have an MS70 1/4th oz gold American Eagle for the birth year of my first son and hope to be able to afford one for the birth year of my 2nd son, who was born a few years ago. So there are definitely reasons to buy / own them, depending on perspective.

Edited by Revenant

Share this comment


Link to comment
2 hours ago, gherrmann44 said:

This has been painfully apparent to me as I own several gold coins that I bought during the last peak that I have wanted to sell for quite a while. Fortunately, I have not needed the money so I have held them all this time. That said I still have a little ways to go before I will break even. On the other side of the coin (pun intended) I have used the low prices of the last couple of years to complete my gold type set. 

I've been lucky in that I bought most of my original gold buys when gold was around $800-1,200 before the 2011 peak and then later, around 2015-2018, during the lows that followed. So that keeps my break even points lower, except for coins like my MS67 1875, which I paid a healthy premium for because it was MS67.

Share this comment


Link to comment
14 hours ago, Revenant said:

I own and enjoy some of the modern gold commems, including the Constitution / Bill of Rights bicentennials. I also have an MS70 1/4th oz gold American Eagle for the birth year of my first son and hope to be able to afford one for the birth year of my 2nd son, who was born a few years ago. So there are definitely reasons to buy / own them, depending on perspective.

I will confess to owning some modern bullion gold coins and bars, including, similarly to you, a couple of 2016 bullion coins for the year my son showed up.  With gold's recent run up  I guess no more kids for me!  I'm going to go check your "Why this set" thing now.  Thanks for your posts

Share this comment


Link to comment

Ahhhh.  For the love of a beard!  And a name.  Nice.  I have the same haste to enter coins I haven't gotten in the mail yet to my collection-manager

Share this comment


Link to comment

"I had to do a bit of pleading but my wife agreed to let me go for it. "

!

My wife would have executed me long ago if she had any idea, even half an idea, even a quarter of an idea, what I have poured into coins

Share this comment


Link to comment

I think we must remember that the average Ebay seller is looking at  around 10% costs for shipping, seller fees and paypal fees... so $350 seems about right when we consider melt at $300 PLUS $30 in fees placing the coin/fees at $330 for the seller. If he sells at $325 then once fees are factored, he might even be selling at below melt!

I think the crazy ones are the ones who sell common date gold at the Auction Houses. Take an average 2016 MS69 AGE 1 ounce-- I see this type of coin at various auctions often ( Heritage, Great Collections, Stacks etc). Currently at $1500 or so as bullion.......

Seller fees are often 10% or more but let's just say 10%.. that means someone would need to bid $1650 to break even for the seller ( obtain bullion base value). What really happens is most auction houses (GC being excepted) have a 15 to 20% buyer's fee also. So buyer's are not going to bid above bullion for common date gold, not in conditional rarity. They will factor the buyer's fee in their bids.... so a 1 ounce common gold coin may sell for $200-300 less than melt at these auctions ( happens all the time, look at auction histories for proof)...

In the end, selling a gold coin at auction might see a $1300 winning bid, another $130 deducted for seller/consignment fee and the random other costs to ship to seller etc...The consignor ends up with $1150 for a $1500 bullion coin and the Auction house profits $300+ for simply receiving shipment and mailing to a new owner....

PS: Gary, I have lots of gold and silver bullion that I have bought that is still below my costs. Always expected it as long-term holdings but the blatant manipulation of bullion prices is frustrating. Paper shorts and vast paper gold vs physical gold/silver has been used for over a decade to keep the worthless dollar as king. I have to even admit to having 100 silver eagles tucked away that I spent $3000 on ! Gonna be awhile before I recoup those losses...(shrug)

Share this comment


Link to comment
9 hours ago, jackson64 said:

I think we must remember that the average Ebay seller is looking at  around 10% costs for shipping, seller fees and paypal fees... so $350 seems about right when we consider melt at $300 PLUS $30 in fees placing the coin/fees at $330 for the seller. If he sells at $325 then once fees are factored, he might even be selling at below melt!

That's true but I still don't know that they'll get it for the same reasons you talk about. At MS 61/62 those things are low. MS64 is low for that series and those dates. The buyers just aren't going to go much over melt, if they do at all, just like your auction buyers you talk about. So while I can see why they might ask it, they'll be lucky to find a buyer.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now