Auction of the 1933 STG DE - what will happen? What about the 1822 half eagle? 0

[World Colonial]

2 hours ago, zadok said:

well time will tell.....it is the only plate block of 4 so it has a higher premium than the other known blocks of 4.....plus there is an over abundance of cash sitting on the sidelines just looking for a place to go...

Yes, I understand your point but this can be said of anything.

I keep on hearing that some ultra-affluent random buyer can't hardly wait to buy some luxury item (a coin and now a stamp) which has no status value to them and no utility.  How often does life work that way?  The probability isn't much better than  being struck by lightning or winning the lottery, literally.

I'm not denying a block isn't worth some premium to the individual stamps but if the estimate is going to be met, the probability is that it is going to be a current stamp collector.

In the $12MM range, whether for any of these three items or another coin, there are going to be other objects which practically every non-collector is going to find more interesting, no matter how many coin or stamp collectors want to believe otherwise.

In the past, I have used Faberge Eggs as a counter example because it's one I know somewhat well and it's possible to buy one in the same price range as these three estimates and a few other coins.  Somewhere in the vicinity of 99% of non-collectors who can afford either potentially prefer it over any coin or stamp and if they don't, the most believable reason is because of future resale liquidity, not because they find it more interesting.

When I expressed a similar sentiment on the PCGS forum, I received a reply that they had a hard time thinking of Faberge Eggs as unique enough versus the 1933 DE due to the story.  It's about the worst rationalization I have ever read.

Non-collectors who know anything about (coin) collecting will know why date rarity matters to collectors but there is no reason to believe it has any relevance to them (for any coin) outside of the price and the same apples to quality reflected in the TPG label.  If they find the design that compelling, they can buy another date in slightly lower quality for a miniscule fraction.

To give everyone here an idea how expensive these three items are, look at prior sales of St. Gaudens' artworks.  I was able to find somewhere between half a dozen and a dozen (mostly) sold by Sotheby.  A 40" Lincoln sculpture sold for about $1.5MM with the rest between the mid five to high six figures. 

By art standards, most or all of his creations aren't really worth that much and neither are the majority of others.  This means there are a huge number of more interesting alternatives to the non-collector (stamps or coins) for the same money or a lot less.

[World Colonial]

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

So if the Feds went after the stamps right after they realized the mistake.....how come they never got them ?  I can't believe they stayed hidden for long.  And even if they did....once collectors had them....why weren't the stamps confiscated like the 1933 Saints were in the 1940's and 1950's ?

The only reason I can come up with is politics.

[zadok]

because they were legally sold n not subject to confiscation.....the stamps were resold n again resold very soon after the initial purchase....there was never any official federal orders to actually confiscate them after leaving gov't control, the orders were to destroy all that were still in possession of the gov't...

[World Colonial]

Presume many saw or heard the 1822 $5 sold for $8.4MM.  It will be interesting to know who the buyer was, assuming it is disclosed.  On the PCGS forum, one member claimed again it was a non-collector.  He is buyer of "mega priced" coins and maybe knows through a process of elimination who did not from those who can afford it, but I still doubt it.

His theory was that it was bought as an inflation hedge.  If true, I consider it a very poor one, as coins are not an inflation hedge.  The inflated price level is the result of credit conditions and the fake prosperity that goes with it.

I wasn't specific previously but I think the 1933 DE will sell for somewhat more.  Maybe set a price record by what I would describe as a nominal margin which would include up to the lower range of the estimate.

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by World Colonial

[GoldFinger1969]

4 hours ago, World Colonial said:

Presume many saw or heard the 1822 $5 sold for $8.4MM.

Exactly 7 MM plus a 20% commission....you would think there'd be a discount on a super-high coin like that.  How much marketing did you need for that coin, especially since Covid has shut-down the in-person and travel expenses ?

4 hours ago, World Colonial said:

On the PCGS forum, one member claimed again it was a non-collector.  He is buyer of "mega priced" coins and maybe knows through a process of elimination who did not from those who can afford it, but I still doubt it. 

You would think that the identity of these buyers would leak out, especially if it's someone who has bought a few coins.  Weitzman apparently only bought the 1933 Saint.

4 hours ago, World Colonial said:

His theory was that it was bought as an inflation hedge.  If true, I consider it a very poor one, as coins are not an inflation hedge.  The inflated price level is the result of credit conditions and the fake prosperity that goes with it.

Only "hedge" would be that prices are more inelastic at the super high end but even there if you do NOT get the 1 or 2 heavy hitters, you can go unsold.  There are MULTIPLE bidders for Saints like the MCMVII 1907 HR and other coins costing $5,000 - $50,000 or so....so if 1 or 2 drop out, it doesn't kill the market.  These coins are susceptible to 1 or 2 buyers disappearing or not having interest.

Not unlike super-expensive real estate where I see trophy homes like Michael Jordan's Chicago mansion going for 40-50% off the original asking price.

4 hours ago, World Colonial said:

I wasn't specific previously but I think the 1933 DE will sell for somewhat more.  Maybe set a price record by what I would describe as a nominal margin which would include up to the lower range of the estimate.

Sounds reasonable, WC.  The 1933 has a story behind it.  I think more people will read about it -- including billionaires who might say "Hey, maybe I can get in on that."  I don't think there were too many mainstream publications touting the sale of the 1822.

The history of the Farouk 1933 Saint...the Langbord story, trial, and publicity.....Weitzman buying it anonymously....then coming out as the buyer a few weeks ago.....lots of "juice" in addition to owning the only "legal" 1933 Saint, and also don't forget it's MONETIZED so if you ever need $20 for parking or groceries, it's legal tender to spend.

God forbid it wasn't monetized and you couldn't spend it as your emergency money !  

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[Rollo Tomassi]

There seems to be a fairly recent trend of strength to higher end collectibles.

Makes some sense.  When you're allocating large amounts of money with an eye to the future, it never hurts to have items of recognized rarity.   ALL markets have hot and cold and when someone can afford it, I can sure think of worse things to have than rare coins.

RARE  coins.     

[GoldFinger1969]

12 minutes ago, Rollo Tomassi said:

There seems to be a fairly recent trend of strength to higher end collectibles. Makes some sense.  When you're allocating large amounts of money with an eye to the future, it never hurts to have items of recognized rarity.   ALL markets have hot and cold and when someone can afford it, I can sure think of worse things to have than rare coins.  RARE  coins.     

The high-end of baseball cards -- not the mass-produced stuff -- has been on fire like work-at-home stocks last year during the pandemic. 

I think rare and even semi-common pre-1933 gold makes sense, but I am exploring these "creeping hoards" of Liberty and Saints coming from Europe or the increased press references I keep seeing about them.  But they are mostly 1-liners in articles on other stuff....I see no articles giving numbers or the persistent leaking out of these coins from France or Europe or other countries.

And as I understand it, none of the major dealers or investors have people scouring the banks overseas like they did in the 1950's and 1960's.  That's why I thought the major hoards and supply was pretty much exhaused.

But I guess not....

[Rollo Tomassi]

I....sorta.... consider baseball cards an "age dependent" field.  I used to deal in antique toys in a pretty heavy way.   Full page and FOUR page ads in Antique Toy World.

Lots and lots of toy shows in the 90's and after for a decade or so.  Now...... DEAD !!                    D E A D   

The market was the 35-50yr olds.  Also Malcolm Forbes was still collecting toy boats.  The Disney animator, Ward Kimball was ending his collection (now sold)  and his stuff was amazing.

Coins, on the other hand ....in MY opinion have rather well stood the test of time.   Coins don't necessarily rely on an age factor.   Income factor, yes but not so much age.

I've kept a ...few... of my better toys just as a memento more than anything else.

The Humphreymobile as an example was meaningful to me as I remember the Joe Palooka comics.

The Converse windup was indicative of the Golden Age of toys.   When kids had "luxury" toys if their parents could afford them.  It's an EXACT scale toy of a 1908 Pierce Arrow touring car.

Talk about "scouring."  Wife and I traveled the country seeking rare toys.   It's kinda sad to see them go as toy shows were absolute carnivals.  Made tons of friends and had a ball.   Early entry was mandatory to find anything truly rare and odd.

I sure can't predict the longevity of the card market but if it runs as a true age dependent field, I'd be hesitant to commit major money to it.

 

Who knows?   Collecting in and of itself is still a discretionary funds activity.   Over the past 2-3 years, I've sold a lot of coins that aren't hard to find.  I'm also now delving more into the world coin arena as I suspect society gives wider attention to things that haven't been as avidly sought as the US coins.

Soooooooooooo............. ?????????????????????   

 

 

 

 

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Exactly 7 MM plus a 20% commission....you would think there'd be a discount on a super-high coin like that.  How much marketing did you need for that coin, especially since Covid has shut-down the in-person and travel expenses ?

Buyers just adjust their bids to pay whatever they planned.  Seller presumably got well over 100% of hammer for a coin like this one.

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

You would think that the identity of these buyers would leak out, especially if it's someone who has bought a few coins.  Weitzman apparently only bought the 1933 Saint.

It's evident from the price level that very few US collectors who can afford to buy the "mega priced" coins will seriously compete for it.  Apparently Hansen didn't buy it and at least two PCGS forum members who are understood to be able to do so admitted they did not either.  Through a process of elimination, I'd guess the buyer could be narrowed down to a very small number, unless lightning actually struck and a non-collector bought it.  If they did, it's still almost certainly a US based buyer like Weitzman (who was not a random buyer anyway).  Not many coin collectors outside the US are likely able to afford it it but even if they can, aren't about to pay more for any US coin over their own, unless they believe misleading industry hype.

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Only "hedge" would be that prices are more inelastic at the super high end but even there if you do NOT get the 1 or 2 heavy hitters, you can go unsold.  There are MULTIPLE bidders for Saints like the MCMVII 1907 HR and other coins costing $5,000 - $50,000 or so....so if 1 or 2 drop out, it doesn't kill the market.  These coins are susceptible to 1 or 2 buyers disappearing or not having interest.

Not unlike super-expensive real estate where I see trophy homes like Michael Jordan's Chicago mansion going for 40-50% off the original asking price.

Yes, but most of what you describe is more a function of the current asset mania.  It's a headed for a crash landing "eventually" and when it does, their will be no bidders or buyers for these inflated luxuries (coin or otherwise) at anything close to current prices, at least measured in relative value.

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Sounds reasonable, WC.  The 1933 has a story behind it.  I think more people will read about it -- including billionaires who might say "Hey, maybe I can get in on that."  I don't think there were too many mainstream publications touting the sale of the 1822.

The history of the Farouk 1933 Saint...the Langbord story, trial, and publicity.....Weitzman buying it anonymously....then coming out as the buyer a few weeks ago.....lots of "juice" in addition to owning the only "legal" 1933 Saint, and also don't forget it's MONETIZED so if you ever need $20 for parking or groceries, it's legal tender to spend.

My opinion is based upon the 1822's AU-50 grade.  If it were an MS-66 or a grade near it like so many other "mega priced" coins, I think the 1822 would have sold for a lot more than the 1933 DE will realize.

As a circulated coin, the only contender seems to be the unique variety of the Brasher doubloon but the recent price of the more common Partrick coin leads me to believe it would sell for less than it did last time.

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

The high-end of baseball cards -- not the mass-produced stuff -- has been on fire like work-at-home stocks last year during the pandemic. 

Not a baseball card but I would call a Michael Jordan rookie card (two apparently) selling for $700K+ with 316 GM-10 and 11500 graded "mass produced", even accounting for duplicates.  There are potentially many more out there also.

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

Not a baseball card but I would call a Michael Jordan rookie card (two apparently) selling for $700K+ with 316 GM-10 and 11500 graded "mass produced", even accounting for duplicates.  There are potentially many more out there also.

1986 just beats the flood of the late-1980's.  And Jordan is special.

I'm thinking more of all the Ken Griffey and other cards from 1990 onward.

[World Colonial]

52 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

1986 just beats the flood of the late-1980's.  And Jordan is special.

I'm thinking more of all the Ken Griffey and other cards from 1990 onward.

I find many coin prices absurd but no coin in the same price range has anywhere near an equivalent supply.  $700K is a totally ridiculous price for a piece of cardboard with at least 316 where this "limited" supply is still only based upon a label.  And who knows how many more are just waiting to end up in a GM-10 holder later.  It's potentially more than the 316 currently graded now.  No duplicates there, that is for sure.

That's why I used St Gaudens artwork as a point of comparison earlier.  We all hear of the headline prices in the eight or nine figures but that's a tiny portion of the art market.  

It's just another aspect of the bubble in search of a pin.  It must be even worse for athletes like Tom Brady where I saw several of his cards on eBay with current bids at $80K+.

[Conder101]

On 3/26/2021 at 1:05 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You would think that the identity of these buyers would leak out, especially if it's someone who has bought a few coins.  Weitzman apparently only bought the 1933 Saint.

Maybe, but Weitzman's didn't for nearly 20 years until he decided to sell it.  And if he kept it secret that long, he probably could have continued to do so.

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, Conder101 said:

Maybe, but Weitzman's didn't for nearly 20 years until he decided to sell it.  And if he kept it secret that long, he probably could have continued to do so.

Kinda proves my point.....if it were a collector, they probably talk to others and you'd have a leak or rumour. 

Weitzman isn't a coin collector though.  Nobody knew anything about the 3 items he has.

[zadok]

10 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Kinda proves my point.....if it were a collector, they probably talk to others and you'd have a leak or rumour. 

Weitzman isn't a coin collector though.  Nobody knew anything about the 3 items he has.

hmmm lets think bout this for a moment....not all coin collectors brag bout their collections, sometimes u dont want others to know what u own....im sure an owner of a rare van gogh mite only have one but still considers him/herself to be an art collector...by strict definition a collection is three or more items so i guess stuart qualifies as a collector of rare things anyway....its sort of like how many buffaloes does it take to be a herd or how many whales does it take to be a pod....guess it depends on how big ur backyard or ur pool is....

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, zadok said:

hmmm lets think bout this for a moment....not all coin collectors brag bout their collections, sometimes u dont want others to know what u own....im sure an owner of a rare van gogh mite only have one but still considers him/herself to be an art collector...by strict definition a collection is three or more items so i guess stuart qualifies as a collector of rare things anyway....its sort of like how many buffaloes does it take to be a herd or how many whales does it take to be a pod....guess it depends on how big ur backyard or ur pool is....

You make some valid points, but I think that something THIS RARE probably would have been shown to a few people over the course of 18 years and then it maybe leaked out.  It clearly didn't and in fact the coin wasn't kept by Weitzman, he loaned it to several venues for display.

With other valuable coins, even involving secret bidding, there are always rumours (some true, some false).  There was nothing in this case, as befits a guy who wasn't a known coin collector.

[GoldFinger1969]

Sotheby's Link:

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2021/three-treasures-collected-by-stuart-weitzman