Well, that escalated quickly...
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44 posts in this topic

31 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

But “stockpiles of silver are shrinking” is an outright lie. They are expanding rapidly. Every ASE you buy ADDS TO the stockpile; it doesn’t subtract from it. 

You'd have to check the LME and CME stockpiles for that.  I'm not an expert.

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all of the previous historical accounts of the ebb n flow of precious metals ring true to some extent, but id rather have it than not have it, hence my personal approach of continual buying at every one of those extreme dips u mention since 1982...my only issue is where to put it, it does take up space, im considering just making a coffee table out of it if the flooring holds, im approx half way to that first cubic metre...if speculators r idiotic enuf to buy metals on margin then they deserve the same fate as the current short sellers...to paraphrase rany moss the only way to buy metals is "straight cash homey"...every investor should buy what he/she feels comfortable with n for whatever their personal goals happen to be, in my case i dont view my metals accumulation as speculation, thats where my 401k is placed, all those stocks, mutual funds, etfs etc r pure speculation...one of my own personal rules is maintain 10 years of liquid assets at all times (single malts included) n u will prob survive whatever financial calamity happens along, after 90 u may be able to relax that rule a bit...no VK i have not had to resort to melting any of my Lone Ranger's bullets yet, but i have melted several thousand silver spoons along the way....

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13 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I was too young at the time to focus on investing, but I doubt that supply was going to be a bullish prop for the price, since the high price would incentivize production and CAPX.  I'm also not surprised it lost that much after a bubble-spike from $12 in September 1979 to January 1980.

I still consider silver a speculation.  Here's a recent BARRON'S abbreviated (need to pay) link to the solar and 5G case for silver:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/silver-prices-are-set-to-benefit-from-surge-in-solar-panels-and-5g-51606474800

 

Prices were not high in the 80's except during the mania.  I don't remember the prices throughout the entire decade but don't believe it was much above $10 about 90% of the time.  (Close to or somewhat higher than now adjusted for price changes.)

I bought a few hundred ounces in 1984 or 1985 for $7.65, including fabrication premium which was 60 cents at the time.

Edited by World Colonial
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13 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

[I do not believe your average collector realizes how heavy a cubic foot of water or silver or gold are.]  I don't know how big your suitcase is, or whether it comes with wheels, but gold comes in at well over half a ton.

I never said I could fill it up. :)

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9 hours ago, VKurtB said:

But “stockpiles of silver are shrinking” is an outright lie. They are expanding rapidly. Every ASE you buy ADDS TO the stockpile; it doesn’t subtract from it. 

It's shrinking if someone assumes those who buy it will never sell which they will at some price, higher or lower.  (Maybe voluntarily or maybe not which is what I believe is coming later since there is no reason to believe most silver bugs are affluent.)  That's what metal advocates implicitly imply or claim.

Fact is, most who speculate in paper silver (SLV and futures) don't actually want the physical metal.  It's no different to them than buying anything else.  They just want to sell it for more later.

I believe in owning some of  the metals as a hedge and form of insurance but not in having an outsized proportion in it all of the time, as there is a huge opportunity cost to that.

Even ignoring the 1979-1980 mania and price run up to 2011, it's been a poor long term hold.  If you bought it in 1999/2001 @ $3.50 and sold it in May 2008 @ $21 or bought it in October 2008 @ $8.39 and sold it in 2011, you made a lot of money.  Other than that, holding it longer term hasn't been a winning proposition.

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55 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Even ignoring the 1979-1980 mania and price run up to 2011, it's been a poor long term hold.  If you bought it in 1999/2001 @ $3.50 and sold it in May 2008 @ $21 or bought it in October 2008 @ $8.39 and sold it in 2011, you made a lot of money.  Other than that, holding it longer term hasn't been a winning proposition.

Silver ran up so much more in 1979-80 because of the Hunt Squeeze.  It quadrupled in 5 months whereas gold merely doubled.

You are absolutely right about silver -- and virutally ALL PM"s -- being lousy investments.  That's one reason why I don't "invest" in silver but rather "speculate" in silver coins and commemoratives.  I pay more, but I get something I enjoy looking at as opposed to the same old ASEs or a silver bar.  If silver doubles or triples or quadruples from today's levels, I'll probably make money on them.  If not, I don't really care.

 

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4 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Silver ran up so much more in 1979-80 because of the Hunt Squeeze.  It quadrupled in 5 months whereas gold merely doubled.

You are absolutely right about silver -- and virutally ALL PM"s -- being lousy investments.  That's one reason why I don't "invest" in silver but rather "speculate" in silver coins and commemoratives.  I pay more, but I get something I enjoy looking at as opposed to the same old ASEs or a silver bar.  If silver doubles or triples or quadruples from today's levels, I'll probably make money on them.  If not, I don't really care.

 

Being a metal advocate is the equivalent of financial religion to some.  I was that way for a short time in the 80's in my early 20's.  Eventually, I figured out I wasn't going to get rich with the limited amount of silver I could buy and then later concluded the hyperinflation scenario many of them expect is a lower probability event too.

I don't believe it is particularly expensive now but don't believe it is cheap either.  If anyone has evidence to show it, I am all ears to hear it.  I have never seen such evidence, only that it's cheap compared to gold (which is significantly overpriced historically) and supposedly artificially suppressed going on 30+ years.

If it falls as far as I believe in the future, I will look to buy it in quantity then, as I expect it to be the last opportunity to buy it cheap for some time.  However, if I am sorry I didn't buy anything recently, it's CVX in the high 50's or low 60's last year.  The yield is still above average but don't think it is cheap anymore.

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1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

Being a metal advocate is the equivalent of financial religion to some.  I was that way for a short time in the 80's in my early 20's.  Eventually, I figured out I wasn't going to get rich with the limited amount of silver I could buy and then later concluded the hyperinflation scenario many of them expect is a lower probability event too.

I don't believe it is particularly expensive now but don't believe it is cheap either.  If anyone has evidence to show it, I am all ears to hear it.  I have never seen such evidence, only that it's cheap compared to gold (which is significantly overpriced historically) and supposedly artificially suppressed going on 30+ years.

If it falls as far as I believe in the future, I will look to buy it in quantity then, as I expect it to be the last opportunity to buy it cheap for some time.  However, if I am sorry I didn't buy anything recently, it's CVX in the high 50's or low 60's last year.  The yield is still above average but don't think it is cheap anymore.

(1)  Agree with you on silver not being cheap OR expensive.

(2)  If you like research on (dividend-paying) oil stocks, check out SankeyResearch.com.  It's free (for now) but Paul Sankey is probably the best oil analyst on Wall Street (well, was...when he was there xD ).

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5 hours ago, World Colonial said:

It's shrinking if someone assumes those who buy it will never sell which they will at some price, higher or lower.  (Maybe voluntarily or maybe not which is what I believe is coming later since there is no reason to believe most silver bugs are affluent.)  That's what metal advocates implicitly imply or claim.

Fact is, most who speculate in paper silver (SLV and futures) don't actually want the physical metal.  It's no different to them than buying anything else.  They just want to sell it for more later.

I believe in owning some of  the metals as a hedge and form of insurance but not in having an outsized proportion in it all of the time, as there is a huge opportunity cost to that.

Even ignoring the 1979-1980 mania and price run up to 2011, it's been a poor long term hold.  If you bought it in 1999/2001 @ $3.50 and sold it in May 2008 @ $21 or bought it in October 2008 @ $8.39 and sold it in 2011, you made a lot of money.  Other than that, holding it longer term hasn't been a winning proposition.

All privately held metal will re-enter the market, whether put there by the purchaser or his heirs, or theirs. The idea that any durable good “disappears” or “goes permanently “off the market” is insane. We are the ephemeral bit, not the metal. 

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I recall many people telling my I was crazy for paying $90 - $110 for a roll of silver eagles back in the 1990s since silver was only worth $3.50 an ounce and I was paying a ridiculous premium for them.  I just buy silver opportunistically and I sleep well, if I want excitement and speculation, there are many options out there, including fun in the pink sheets!

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On 2/4/2021 at 2:50 PM, VKurtB said:

All privately held metal will re-enter the market, whether put there by the purchaser or his heirs, or theirs. The idea that any durable good “disappears” or “goes permanently “off the market” is insane. We are the ephemeral bit, not the metal. 

[It is a comfort to know every shipwreck will be located and its payload raised, and that every hoard of coins will be found.  The so-called Treasure of the Sierra Madre, I'm not so sure about, but then I only saw the movie version (1948) with Bogart and Huston.]

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1 hour ago, Quintus Arrius said:

[It is a comfort to know every shipwreck will be located and its payload raised, and that every hoard of coins will be found.  The so-called Treasure of the Sierra Madre, I'm not so sure about, but then I only saw the movie version (1948) with Bogart and Huston.]

That was a good one, sad how it all blew away like that...

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