Well, that escalated quickly...
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Apparently the Reddit short squeeze folks just realized that silver is the most manipulated market in history and decided to pile on for another short a squeeze, spot silver is up near $29 and the major dealers are asking $42 for silver eagles but all are reporting "sold out" conditions...

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Interesting, this was a topic of great discussion ATS earlier today with many saying it was not possible.  Would love to see it hit $50 again so I can sell out my meager silver stack.

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3 hours ago, jtryka said:

Apparently the Reddit short squeeze folks just realized that silver is the most manipulated market in history and decided to pile on for another short a squeeze, spot silver is up near $29 and the major dealers are asking $42 for silver eagles but all are reporting "sold out" conditions...

I don't think it's manipulated -- what you are seeing now with the Reddit's piling in is manipulation. xD

After any short squeeze ends, the price will fall back, just like when the Hunt Brothers controlled 1/3rd of the global silver supply.

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2 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

Interesting, this was a topic of great discussion ATS earlier today with many saying it was not possible.  Would love to see it hit $50 again so I can sell out my meager silver stack.

It's a much larger market than GME when the stock was $5 or $20 or even $60.

Gonna be moving a $10 billion daily market cap based on the futures.

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3 hours ago, World Colonial said:

This has been discussed many times on many venues but it's waste of time trying to convince those who believe it.  No one outside of metal advocates and some coin collectors care.

A far more important indicator to me is the non-confirmation between silver and gold.  The two don't always move in lockstep but any long term disconnect is not positive for prices.

Well, judging by GME's move today and the move in the AH, they should at least be raising some cash for SLV. xD

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9 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, judging by GME's move today and the move in the AH, they should at least be raising some cash for SLV. xD

Don't get me wrong. I am interested in owning both. 

To my knowledge, silver is only significantly relatively underpriced versus gold but not generally.  On one occasion, I attempted to look into it but only found limited data.  As an example, to my recollection, silver is somewhat cheap now versus a barrel of oil (roughly 2-1 now versus somewhat less in February, 1976 when silver was $5.25) but not meaningfully so.

Gold is at a multi-century relatively overvaluation versus at minimum other commodities. However, this doesn't mean that silver should be selling for a lot more just because the ratio doesn't conform to the arbitrary 16-1 set by governments during the gold standard and gold exchange standard era.  After the US government fixed the price of gold at $35 in 1933, the ratio was over 100 with silver selling around 25c.

Prices change all the time and there is nothing in economics requiring relative prices to conform to anyone's belief.

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15 hours ago, World Colonial said:

This has been discussed many times on many venues but it's waste of time trying to convince those who believe it.  No one outside of metal advocates and some coin collectors care.  A far more important indicator to me is the non-confirmation between silver and gold.  The two don't always move in lockstep but any long term disconnect is not positive for prices.

It's amazing that people don't understand that JP Morgan is a custodian and clearing house and they have long and short positions on behalf of clients.  They themselves don't own the underlying positions.  The regulators wouldn't allow it.

And yet, people continue to believe it. :roflmao:

Agree with your general thrust on silve and gold WC....but prices and long-standing ratios can move over time.  Oil and gas used to trade at a 6:1 ratio....last 10-15 years it has been closer to 20-30x.   Silver and gold used to be much closer in price than last 10-15 years.  Now, the old ratio of 30-40x is closer to 80-100x.

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56 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Don't get me wrong. I am interested in owning both. To my knowledge, silver is only significantly relatively underpriced versus gold but not generally.  On one occasion, I attempted to look into it but only found limited data.  As an example, to my recollection, silver is somewhat cheap now versus a barrel of oil (roughly 2-1 now versus somewhat less in February, 1976 when silver was $5.25) but not meaningfully so.Gold is at a multi-century relatively overvaluation versus at minimum other commodities. However, this doesn't mean that silver should be selling for a lot more just because the ratio doesn't conform to the arbitrary 16-1 set by governments during the gold standard and gold exchange standard era.  After the US government fixed the price of gold at $35 in 1933, the ratio was over 100 with silver selling around 25c.Prices change all the time and there is nothing in economics requiring relative prices to conform to anyone's belief.

Historical ratios and other items mean so much less today in the age of the Internet, instant information, etc.  So many new sources of $$$ to flow in or out.

Anything compared to oil or natgas will have changed in recent years as fracking lowered the price of each.

I do believe that ratios or prices that stay with fewer variables -- like only gold or silver, for instance -- can be useful.  For instance, the premium on coins relative to gold or silver content is still useful, IMO.

 

MS65 Saint Pricing 1997-2020.jpg

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4 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's amazing that people don't understand that JP Morgan is a custodian and clearing house and they have long and short positions on behalf of clients.  They themselves don't own the underlying positions.  The regulators wouldn't allow it.

And yet, people continue to believe it. :roflmao:

Agree with both your posts but will just answer here.

The inferred motive to suppress silver prices doesn't exist.  What I would like to know is, how does anyone who believes it explain the current price of gold?

If there has been a concerted effort to suppress gold as some of the same people believe, it has failed miserably, as no one can claim that it is relatively cheap versus hardly anything.  Maybe services such as doctor or attorney fees but literally almost no physical goods except overpriced art, collectibles and real estate.  

Gold is a lot more important metal today and in the recent past.  It's still a key central bank reserve asset and the market size is relatively material.  Silver meets neither criteria, as it has no role special role in the financial system anymore and the market size isn't significant.

I also don't believe hardly any genuinely wealthy people own it either at all (as an "investment") but definitely not as a meaningful percentage of their wealth.  It's less liquid (much higher spreads for physical) and it's more expensive to store.  It's lower unit value makes owning it in coin form more useful for barter, but it's value is an impediment to store.

If I choose, I can carry all of my taxable savings in gold in a briefcase.  Conversely, I cannot remotely carry the equivalent value in silver.  I can store it in a vault or at home but in an emergency, may not have access to it which substantially defeats one of the purposes of owning it.

I think everyone should own some of one or both but the typical metal advocate almost certainly isn't wealthy enough to own meaningful amounts of either.  Under most circumstances that I see, they will better off with it than without it but owning it isn't going to meaningfully change their financial prospects, much less rescue them from the financial disaster some of the believe will occur. 

I also expect many of them to become forced sellers and likely at unfavorable prices when economic conditions deteriorate substantially.  The best explanation why it did not happen much or more in late 2008 is because the financial stress was temporary.

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22 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I saw a piece in BARRON's a few months ago that was bullish on silver.  Gonna see if I can find it.

Owning metals in a true financial calamity is like taking several accordions with you to hunt deer. In both cases, you need weapons and ammunition much more.

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We've all been through this before. There's one thing for certain here and it has proven out in times past : If I buy silver the price will go down ! So I'm staying out just so you folks don't blame me B|

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53 minutes ago, zadok said:

VK...u never heard bout the Lone Ranger using silver bullets?....isolated childhood?....

You melting them down?

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2 hours ago, VKurtB said:

Owning metals in a true financial calamity is like taking several accordions with you to hunt deer. In both cases, you need weapons and ammunition much more.

In financially turbulent times, both silver and gold tend to be a focus for raising cash.  So I'm not advocating either (esp. silver, less so gold) as a protection for a market crash like we had in March 2020.

The bullish case for silver rests on increased semiconductor and chip production, plus more industrial usage.  Think palladium over the last 30 years or so.

 

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9 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Owning metals in a true financial calamity is like taking several accordions with you to hunt deer. In both cases, you need weapons and ammunition much more.

Agreed.

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5 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

In financially turbulent times, both silver and gold tend to be a focus for raising cash.  So I'm not advocating either (esp. silver, less so gold) as a protection for a market crash like we had in March 2020.

Yes, that's why both crashed into October in 2008, after holding up until May.  Initially viewed as a "safe haven" and then had to be sold when the margin calls came and job losses occurred.

In any future financial crisis, the result is likely to be similar, at least initially.  There is far too much debt in the financial system and too many people are either actually too financially marginal (think many or most "metal bugs") or too leveraged who will lack the solvency and liquidity necessary to hold onto their stash, assuming they even want to do it.

5 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

The bullish case for silver rests on increased semiconductor and chip production, plus more industrial usage.  Think palladium over the last 30 years or so.

To my recollection, the mining supply deficit was one of the primary bull arguments during the 80's, 90's or both.  It didn't make any difference.  Silver still lost about 93% of it's early 1980 manic peak by 1999/2001 in NOMINAL terms.

Not quite as familiar with the specifics of palladium other than to say it's much rarer but traditionally not an "investment" metal.  I thought about buying small quantities of it back around 2004 or 2005 when spot was about $140 but did not because it was only available in bar form and considered the premiums far too high.  Obviously, I wish I had.

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7 hours ago, VKurtB said:

Owning metals in a true financial calamity is like taking several accordions with you to hunt deer. In both cases, you need weapons and ammunition much more.

In a global financial calamity, there will be few or no safe havens.  However, having your assets geographically diversified is still a prudent strategy for those who can afford it and have some idea of what they are doing.

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On 2/2/2021 at 12:10 PM, World Colonial said:

If I choose, I can carry all of my taxable savings in gold in a briefcase.

[I do not believe your average collector realizes how heavy a cubic foot of water or silver or gold are.]  I don't know how big your suitcase is, or whether it comes with wheels, but gold comes in at well over half a ton.

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1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

To my recollection, the mining supply deficit was one of the primary bull arguments during the 80's, 90's or both.  It didn't make any difference.  Silver still lost about 93% of it's early 1980 manic peak by 1999/2001 in NOMINAL terms. Not quite as familiar with the specifics of palladium other than to say it's much rarer but traditionally not an "investment" metal.  I thought about buying small quantities of it back around 2004 or 2005 when spot was about $140 but did not because it was only available in bar form and considered the premiums far too high.  Obviously, I wish I had.

I was too young at the time to focus on investing, but I doubt that supply was going to be a bullish prop for the price, since the high price would incentivize production and CAPX.  I'm also not surprised it lost that much after a bubble-spike from $12 in September 1979 to January 1980.

I still consider silver a speculation.  Here's a recent BARRON'S abbreviated (need to pay) link to the solar and 5G case for silver:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/silver-prices-are-set-to-benefit-from-surge-in-solar-panels-and-5g-51606474800

 

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55 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

[I do not believe your average collector realizes how heavy a cubic foot of water or silver or gold are.]  I don't know how big your suitcase is, or whether it comes with wheels, but gold comes in at well over half a ton.

I believe a cubic meter of water weights almost a ton.

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7 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

In financially turbulent times, both silver and gold tend to be a focus for raising cash.  So I'm not advocating either (esp. silver, less so gold) as a protection for a market crash like we had in March 2020.

The bullish case for silver rests on increased semiconductor and chip production, plus more industrial usage.  Think palladium over the last 30 years or so.

 

Don't forget solar panels...

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22 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I believe a cubic meter of water weights almost a ton.

Not in the ocean...

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3 hours ago, jtryka said:

Don't forget solar panels...

But “stockpiles of silver are shrinking” is an outright lie. They are expanding rapidly. Every ASE you buy ADDS TO the stockpile; it doesn’t subtract from it. 

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