CC Morgan GSA hoard overrated? 0

[MN1]

After coming across a nice looking CC Morgan GSA Hoard w/blue NGC MS65 label that I passed on in the moment, I second guessed my decision and so researched that and other years later this past weekend.  Two things I realized is that these are very easy to come by if one wants one (except maybe one like an 1881 or 1889) and then also how low the values have pulled back.  On several CC GSA dates the values have been falling steadily since 2015 and some of these back to where they were valued in March 2010.   

Are there just more and more being passed down by relatives or found by family members and being sent off to be certified driving the prices back to years ago?  And that these may be adding to the common dates like 1882, 1883, 1884?   

Just curious what those who may follow the CC GSA Hoard more closely think and opinions on where the values might go.  Is it worth adding one to the collection just to have one regardless the date or one's budget?

[World Colonial]

None of these coins are rare or even scarce.  It all depends upon how badly you want one in this box, as that's what you are paying extra to obtain.

As to whether the premium will hold, I don't follow it.  I recall seeing data from the hoard at some point and some of the dates are low ("box rare") if it's what you want. 

As time marches on, I wouldn't count on those who don't remember when it was released caring either way.  I remember seeing these soon after I started collecting (late 70's) and thought it was kind of neat at the time.  Now, I just see it as another form of marketing.

[Insider]

I recommend every new collector buy a CC dollar in a GSA holder (graded or not) in order to see what the surface luster of a totally original dollar should look like.  Sure they have a specific luster all their own but you will usually have a coin with a 62-63 obverse and a 66-67 reverse to keep as a grading reference.  They also tend to hold a price range and I believe they will always be in demand.  

This weekend I paid $200 to get a raw 84-CC "gem" with sandblasted cheek and hair to fool my grading students. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Insider

[MarkFeld]

I, too, feel that GSA dollars are overrated. However, while all but a small number of dates are quite common, they're also the object of very heavy demand.

A few other examples of easy to locate coins which enjoy high demand and thus higher prices than one might expect, are 1907 High Relief $20's, 1916-D dimes and 1909-S VDB cents.

[RWB]

I agree with Mark. If you include a little of the backstory with the coin in it's unusual holder, you have something that more people can relate to and understand than a mere "slabbed" silver dollar. These things might have been made in relative isolation, but their story is from the nation's background and should be told to future generations.

[GoldFinger1969]

4 hours ago, MarkFeld said:

I, too, feel that GSA dollars are overrated. However, while all but a small number of dates are quite common, they're also the object of very heavy demand.

A few other examples of easy to locate coins which enjoy high demand and thus higher prices than one might expect, are 1907 High Relief $20's, 1916-D dimes and 1909-S VDB cents.

Mark, who in your opinion is responsible for the "high demand" on the 3 types of coins you cite (feel free to focus on Saints since that's my area of semi-expertise ) ?

Is it really HIGH DEMAND with regard to say, the Saints....or is it just PERSISTENT demand coupled with lack of supply? That's what we are seeing now with this housing boom in the suburbs....it's not that there's a huge influx from the cities, it's just that we are having a slight increase above the norm coupled with no increase in supply from the suburbs (if I can use a current example of high prices resulting from a slight bump in demand with no increase in supply).   

I always wondered if the bulk of the holders for the 1907 High Relief Saints is people who inherited the coins, since it seems somewhat unlikely (IMO) that 10,000 active coin collectors decided to buy one of the most expensive coins in fairly high grade condition.  It's unlikely that non-coin collectors of today would want said coin, so why should folks from years or decades ago have wanted one, right, unless they were active coin collectors....OR...had inherited the coin.

In the case of the Morgan GSAs, you probably had lots of adults and youngsters buy them in the early-1970's....many are just now realizing they can be sold for a nice price and/or many are dying and leaving them to heirs. 

So....Limited Supply (original buyers not selling, even if not coin collectors) plus Increased Demand (lots of current Morgan collectors) = Strong Demand & Well-Bid Pricing.

Edited October 27, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

3 hours ago, RWB said:

I agree with Mark. If you include a little of the backstory with the coin in it's unusual holder, you have something that more people can relate to and understand than a mere "slabbed" silver dollar. These things might have been made in relative isolation, but their story is from the nation's background and should be told to future generations.

Well said Roger....many of today's current collectors didn't or couldn't buy one in the early-1970's but now have the interest AND $$$ to buy one.  Hence, the relatively high price (compared to other Morgans) of $300 - $1,000 for quality GSA Morgans -- but a price that is still affordable to many non-wealthy collectors or interested buyers.

[World Colonial]

@GoldFinger1969 I'll giver you my answer to your question.

For the Saints, it can't be a lack of supply, as anyone with the money could probably buy at least 100 decent ones right now.  For the supply, it's the most expensive coin in the world bar none in the sense that no other coin has this many survivors selling for an equivalent price, that I know.

For the other two "key dates", I attribute it to  a "reputational premium" from when collecting was predominantly out of circulating change, up to maybe the late 60's.  However, take a look at the price trends since 1965 and you will see that the relative preference for the 09-S VDB has collapsed.  It isn't cheap for the supply but it's far more affordable to a much more affluent collector base now versus 1965.  The 16-D seems about stable from my review.

[GoldFinger1969]

22 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

@GoldFinger1969 I'll giver you my answer to your question.   For the Saints, it can't be a lack of supply, as anyone with the money could probably buy at least 100 decent ones right now.  For the supply, it's the most expensive coin in the world bar none in the sense that no other coin has this many survivors selling for an equivalent price, that I know.

You mean that there are 100 coins, of all grades, available for sale online, from dealers, coin shows, etc...RIGHT NOW.......right ?

But this coin may be considered unique because (1) you could consider each GRADE of the 1907 HR to be an individual coin by itself (or every 2-3 grade increments)...EFs....vs. AU's....vs. MS63's...vs. MS65's....vs MS67's...and (2) how many 1-ounce gold coins, U.S. double eagles are there historically compared to the much larger mintage for lower-denomination copper, steel, nickel, and other coins ?

I do think that if there were a database on current holders of 1907 High Reliefs that it would prove fascinating to determine current pricing and demand trends.

Edited October 27, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[Zebo]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well said Roger....many of today's current collectors didn't or couldn't buy one in the early-1970's but now have the interest AND $$$ to buy one.  Hence, the relatively high price (compared to other Morgans) of $300 - $1,000 for quality GSA Morgans -- but a price that is still affordable to many non-wealthy collectors or interested buyers.

$300-$1,000 for the very common GSA Morgan's, but what about the 1879 and 1890 CC GSAs? Both carry a hefty price tag with the 1879 CC moving into five figures for a decent one.

[World Colonial]

45 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

You mean that there are 100 coins, of all grades, available for sale online, from dealers, coin shows, etc...RIGHT NOW.......right ?

Yes, at minimum.  Most likely more

45 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

But this coin may be considered unique because (1) you could consider each GRADE of the 1907 HR to be an individual coin by itself (or every 2-3 grade increments)...EFs....vs. AU's....vs. MS63's...vs. MS65's....vs MS67's..

Same could be said of any or at least many coins

46 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

how many 1-ounce gold coins, U.S. double eagles are there historically compared to the much larger mintage for lower-denomination copper, steel, nickel, and other coins ?

It comes down to the design being highly preferred and it's a large gold coin which attracts a lot of big budget buyers, many of whom are potentially buying it also for financial reasons.  Might be bought as a sub-type too but this is an assumption.

[GoldFinger1969]

3 hours ago, World Colonial said:

It comes down to the design being highly preferred and it's a large gold coin which attracts a lot of big budget buyers, many of whom are potentially buying it also for financial reasons.  Might be bought as a sub-type too but this is an assumption.

PCGS reports just over 5,100 1907 HR's and NGC just over 3,800.  So about 8,900, making for just under 3,500 coins not accounted for. 

If you assume lots of crosses from PCGS to NGC and vice-versa (double-counting), then maybe 4,000 or 5,000 coins not accounted for.  Could be more....maybe 6,000 or more.

If the "unaccounteds" remain in private, "sticky" hands -- handed down by from family members to heirs -- that could account for the sticky and relatively high price of 1907 HR Saints.  If a few hundred 1907 HR's were to hit the TPGs and market every year for the next decade or so and everyone knew they'd be coming out (with grades across the spectrum), my guess is you'd have a slow, steady drizzle downward in price. 

But I'm not sure how much.

Edited October 27, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[James_OldeTowne]

In a sense, I agree GSA dollars are overrated with respect to how readily they may be obtained.  However, there is some degree of guarantee as to the original quality (i.e., the coin's been untouched at least since encapsulated).  Also, I know some collectors aggressively pursue VAMs in GSA holders, making some non-CC GSAs particularly valuable.

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, James_OldeTowne said:

In a sense, I agree GSA dollars are overrated with respect to how readily they may be obtained.  However, there is some degree of guarantee as to the original quality (i.e., the coin's been untouched at least since encapsulated). 

Also, if you don't want toning or spotting, you're unlikely to see it happen after the coins have been around for 100+ years.

[GoldFinger1969]

HA has some GSA Morgns for sale this week, anybody bidding ?

[MN1]

Maybe it's just the coins I have or look at but I usually see them appreciate or have some nice spikes like 8-12 years ago.  Some may even ride a steady line for a bit but the CC GSA Hoards I've been coming across recently have all been on a downward ride over something like the past 5 years.  I'm referring to $250 - $550 CC GSA's (MS62-MS65) today that were $350 - $750 five years back and not key dates.  Just those someone might pick up to have one.  That's not a $10 or $25 drop.  That trend surprises me as I don't have one coin that dropped that much.  I'm not a seasoned collector or know-it-all collector so there is plenty for me to learn but how much lower can these CC GSA Hoards continue to drop?  

[MarkFeld]

1 hour ago, MN1 said:

Maybe it's just the coins I have or look at but I usually see them appreciate or have some nice spikes like 8-12 years ago.  Some may even ride a steady line for a bit but the CC GSA Hoards I've been coming across recently have all been on a downward ride over something like the past 5 years.  I'm referring to $250 - $550 CC GSA's (MS62-MS65) today that were $350 - $750 five years back and not key dates.  Just those someone might pick up to have one.  That's not a $10 or $25 drop.  That trend surprises me as I don't have one coin that dropped that much.  I'm not a seasoned collector or know-it-all collector so there is plenty for me to learn but how much lower can these CC GSA Hoards continue to drop?  

The downward ride you mentioned is even more severe than that. Some MS62’s have sold for less than $200.

[MN1]

@ MarkFeld,

I just came across an 1884 CC GSA  at a flea market.  It was like frost.  No toning and the GSA slab immaculate but it was an 1884.  It also wasn't graded and the seller wanted $250.  From across his table I thought it was going to be MS65 or MS66 but after returning with glasses and a magnifying glass and using a graded 1885-O (MS64) for comparison I felt his CC was probably MS62 with the scratches it had.  Maybe MS63 at best but I think MS62.  Without being graded to know for certain and the seller not willing to move off $250...and being an 1884 I passed on it.  Then looked up values and history that evening over the past 14 years where I saw not much of difference between now and March 2006.  

[MarkFeld]

11 minutes ago, MN1 said:

@ MarkFeld,

I just came across an 1884 CC GSA  at a flea market.  It was like frost.  No toning and the GSA slab immaculate but it was an 1884.  It also wasn't graded and the seller wanted $250.  From across his table I thought it was going to be MS65 or MS66 but after returning with glasses and a magnifying glass and using a graded 1885-O (MS64) for comparison I felt his CC was probably MS62 with the scratches it had.  Maybe MS63 at best but I think MS62.  Without being graded to know for certain and the seller not willing to move off $250...and being an 1884 I passed on it.  Then looked up values and history that evening over the past 14 years where I saw not much of difference between now and March 2006.  

It sounds like you made a wise pass. No need to stretch for a common coin.

[GoldFinger1969]

5 hours ago, MN1 said:

Maybe it's just the coins I have or look at but I usually see them appreciate or have some nice spikes like 8-12 years ago.  Some may even ride a steady line for a bit but the CC GSA Hoards I've been coming across recently have all been on a downward ride over something like the past 5 years.  I'm referring to $250 - $550 CC GSA's (MS62-MS65) today that were $350 - $750 five years back and not key dates.  Just those someone might pick up to have one.  That's not a $10 or $25 drop.  That trend surprises me as I don't have one coin that dropped that much.  I'm not a seasoned collector or know-it-all collector so there is plenty for me to learn but how much lower can these CC GSA Hoards continue to drop?  

I suspect it is supply coming out from original holders/buyers or inheritors of the coins that have no interest in them and find out they are worth $500 - $1,000 and want the change.

Do we have any numbers on how many of these GSA Morgans have been graded by the TPGs ?  CC Morgans ?

Edited October 29, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

9 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Do we have any numbers on how many of these GSA Morgans have been graded by the TPGs ?  CC Morgans ?

It's identified in the population data to my recollection.

[RWB]

Regarding Goldfinger1969's comment,

"I always wondered if the bulk of the holders for the 1907 High Relief Saints is people who inherited the coins, since it seems somewhat unlikely (IMO) that 10,000 active coin collectors decided to buy one of the most expensive coins in fairly high grade condition.  It's unlikely that non-coin collectors of today would want said coin, so why should folks from years or decades ago have wanted one, right, unless they were active coin collectors....OR...had inherited the coin."

There are no definitive numbers, but anecdotes in archive letters claim that almost all high relief MCMVII double eagles were bought by sub-Treasury clerks for face value and immediately sold to friends and interested parties for $30 to $35 each. Once the novelty fell off, the values sank to about $22.50, sometimes less. Most of the coins never saw a retail bank counter.

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/29/2020 at 10:44 AM, RWB said:

There are no definitive numbers, but anecdotes in archive letters almost all high relief MCMVII double eagles were bought by sub-Treasury clerks for face value and immediately sold to friends and interested parties for $30 to $35 each. Once the novelty fell off, the values sank to about $22.50, sometimes less. Most of the coins never saw a retail bank counter.

I should have gotten a few, but I was busy watching John McGraw and the NY Giants.  Christy Mathewson was pitching.  

Edited January 17, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

2 minutes ago, RWB said:

There are no definitive numbers, but anecdotes in archive letters almost all high relief MCMVII double eagles were bought by sub-Treasury clerks for face value and immediately sold to friends and interested parties for $30 to $35 each. Once the novelty fell off, the values sank to about $22.50, sometimes less. Most of the coins never saw a retail bank counter.

Roger, how many of these sub-Treasury clerks were there back then ?  Are we talking hundreds or thousands....or just a few who each bought hundreds of coins each ?

I'm trying to make the numbers work, since you said that "almost all" of the 12,367 got out that way.

[RWB]

21 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Roger, how many of these sub-Treasury clerks were there back then ?  Are we talking hundreds or thousands....or just a few who each bought hundreds of coins each ?

I'm trying to make the numbers work, since you said that "almost all" of the 12,367 got out that way.

Hundreds of clerks plus officers. Frank Leach's goal was to have at least one bag (250 coins) for each sub-Treasury (nine large city locations in the Independent Treasury system), plus more for main Treasury in Washington. He ended up with about 49 bags and some were sent to the largest banks in New York, Chicago, St Louis, San Francisco, etc. and to banks in cities that did not have a sub-Treasury. Individual orders were also filled from Philadelphia. [Renaissance of American Coinage 1909-1915 has information about remainders held by the Treasurer of the U.S. under the heading "The Treasurer's Treasure." This section is about a hoard of gold coins that was given to the Mint Cabinet of coins.]

Edited October 29, 2020 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

You probably had lots of people into art and wealthy people who heard of the 1907 HR from their friends and they all wanted the coin.  Seems like 90% of the demand was probably from non-collectors.

The GSA Morgans were relatively less so more people could own them but you probably had many people who didn't own any other coins who sent in for a GSA.  Many I suspect knew about the 1904-O riches a decade earlier.

Edited October 29, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[Conder101]

On 10/26/2020 at 2:50 PM, World Colonial said:

None of these coins are rare or even scarce.

Three of them are.  Two dates only had a single specimen in the hoard, and I think one had either 1 or 2.  In other words only a single full set of GSA CC dollars could be put together in the GSA holders.

[RWB]

Ali Baba and his Forty Thieves can make full set to order, including certificates and authentication.

[Zebo]

19 hours ago, Conder101 said:

Three of them are.  Two dates only had a single specimen in the hoard, and I think one had either 1 or 2.  In other words only a single full set of GSA CC dollars could be put together in the GSA holders.

You are correct - 1889, 1892, 1893. The 1879 & 1890 are also quite expensive, but are fairly easy to obtain.

[World Colonial]

On 10/29/2020 at 12:51 PM, Conder101 said:

Three of them are.  Two dates only had a single specimen in the hoard, and I think one had either 1 or 2.  In other words only a single full set of GSA CC dollars could be put together in the GSA holders.

I was referring to the coins, not the GSA holder.  I infer from the TPG population data that some of the holders are "rare".