Regency 41 auction 0

[Zebo]

Well it looks like the 1794 and 1804 dollars did not sell - lots were passed. 

So so evryone with the over and under guesses - lost. House wins. 

Wonder whats next next for them - private treaty or another auction. Too bad, I was hoping for something to talk about tonight. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Zebo

[Coinbuf]

Well we could discuss many of the other coins that did very poorly in the auction.  Bruce has posted ATS that he is very happy to hold onto these two and the 1795 gold coin as a box of three going forward.  I would guess that it will take a private treaty to move these coin going forward.

[Tyrock]

Interesting outcome to be sure. These are tremendous coins, but have a very limited market given the nature of their values. Great "box of three" coins to own though.

[Henri Charriere]

Well, like my uncle VKurtB, once said (or was it ever-pleasant, Just Bob) it is demand and the price a buyer is willing to pay that determines whether a sale is in the offing.

I am reminded of this when my roosters start crowing early in the morning.  Under the influence of painkillers following major surgery, they looked marvelous.  But in the sober light of day, they're beginning to look more and more like farm animals.

[World Colonial]

There is plenty to talk about, just not for the financial promoters.

After I read the original post, I looked at the results.  I would describe the sale of his collection as disproportionately weak across the board, unless I am told the estimates were unreasonably high.  It wasn't just the three coins he kept but that practically all of the 29 lots failed to sell for the minimum estimate, frequently more like 80% or less.

ATS in an earlier poll, I guessed the 1794 dollar would sell for $8MM to $10MM but was overly optimistic which is saying a lot for me.  I thought there MIGHT be two collectors who can both afford and possibly want the coin enough to hit this price target.

Unlike others, I knew with 99.99% certainty no non-collector would try to buy it for the reasons I provided here and there.  At least 17,000 people who can presumably afford to buy it yet none of them did.

As for a private treaty sale, the impression I have is that at this financial level, the owner will usually hold onto it long enough to avoid a loss.  I don't recall what the others sold for. only the 1794 dollar.

In a rising market, this strategy can work.  However, from my limited review, the price level has mostly flat or falling since around 2008 even with the unprecedented asset bubble intact.  If it ends, holding out will be a highly risky financial strategy.

[Zebo]

Very weak results --- I'll have to go through all of the results to see if any area stood up better than the others.

[Moxie15]

This does not surprise me at all. They were purchased near the height of the market in an active economy with an abundance of hype. Fear has the market by the throat and Greed is hiding behind the couch. It will not be until sometime after the big questions of the day are resolved that super high end items like these will be viable.

[7.jaguars]

I agree, I just never saw the value at the time, and really it was not there. That idea of jumping one's own bid from 5.25 to 8.25 million was simply ridiculous. It was supposed to serve as an entry for coins into the hyper-price world of art, and make acceptable the idea of mega-priced coins. It failed and this coin, lovely on it's own but overhyped and IMO exaggerated with speculation and hopeful interpretation showed in its lack of performance at the sale.

[LINCOLNMAN]

The more prosaic coins appeared to do okay, as did the vivid toners, at least to my eye and based on the estimates provided. I didn't check prices against other sources. 

[World Colonial]

This is only one sale but a precursor to what I see later more generally.

From what I read, the US price level has generally been flat or falling since at least 2008.  Reading the sentiments of US buyers of the better US coinage (especially ATS), it's totally expected for someone else's widgets and "dreck" to do poorly but it should never happen to their "eye candy" with CAC sticker in better or "uber" grades.  I keep on hearing someone "bought the coin and not the holder" and "buy the best you can afford" under the ridiculous inference that what are predominantly actually common or easy to buy coins should still sell for consistently (higher) inflated prices.

I'm sticking with my inference that the buyer's of the more and most expensive (US) coinage don't usually actually like what they buy or collecting as much as commonly implied, except when they are least getting most or all of their money back.

This is a very nice collection and so are many other coins selling for substantial premiums to slightly lower quality ones.  It still doesn't change the fact that most of the time, there isn't much practical difference with much cheaper and usually readily available but slightly lower quality substitutes.