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Upcoming high value Auctions
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34 posts in this topic

With all the upcoming high value auctions coming up before the end of the year, do you believe there will be a new record set for the highest priced paid for a coin? 

If you do - what coin do you believe will break the record?

if not - why not?

speculation at its best (or worst)!

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26 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

There are only two legitimate candidates, the 1794 SP-66 dollar and the Patrick Brasher doubloon.  The Patrick coin is the better candidate.  I expect the 1794 dollar to sell for less than last time subject to any reserve.

It all depends on if two (or more) people want them - but I too, do not feel like the 1794 will sell for what Bruce paid for it. The estimate is 7-8M. The Dablone is a good candidate as well - but I do not think it will make a new record. Of course I could be wrong and am often. 

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My assumption is based upon a few things.

First, from what I heard, the last sale price was noticeably above the underbidder.  This creates more uncertainty especially in an overall weaker market.

Second, I believe a PCGS MS-66 sold for $4.995MM, either Stacks or Heritage.  I could have the specifics wrong but there is still a big gap between the sale of this SP66 and all others where the difference is not that large.

Third, I was wrong about the last sale price for the Doubloon.  It was only $4.5MM and not $7.4MM as I thought.  The Partrick coin is the unique variety (I believe) and it's a better quality coin but being offered in a weaker market and it's a big jump to a record price.

So agree, no record.

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I have to disagree, I think there is a very good possibility the SP66 1794 dollar will set a new record.  This market may be slumping in the middle but the very tippy top is still flying and I think there are at least two whales out there that want the bragging rights.  After all ten million for many of the super rich is like lunch money to you and I.

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2 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

I have to disagree, I think there is a very good possibility the SP66 1794 dollar will set a new record.  This market may be slumping in the middle but the very tippy top is still flying and I think there are at least two whales out there that want the bragging rights.  After all ten million for many of the super rich is like lunch money to you and I.

Unless you are referring to existing US collectors, what you are describing is random buying, about as likely as winning some version of the lottery.

This same question was covered in a thread on the PCGS forum and two posters specifically disagreed with my contrary opinion.  I didn't elaborate then but it is easy to demonstrate that the chances of non-collectors or collectors located outside the US buying it are virtually zero.

The only people who have any inclination to buy this coin at a record price (or near it) are existing US collectors who can afford it, but this requires that they are in the market for multi-million dollar coins.  I'll grant one of these people may buy it at a record price.

Except for American expats, no coin collector outside the US has any motive to pay more for a US coin than their own. To believe it is unsubstantiated and no one can demonstrate it.  Non-collectors have even less reason.  In other words, absolutely none.  That's why they aren't collectors now.

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8 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

I have to disagree, I think there is a very good possibility the SP66 1794 dollar will set a new record.  This market may be slumping in the middle but the very tippy top is still flying and I think there are at least two whales out there that want the bragging rights.  After all ten million for many of the super rich is like lunch money to you and I.

Hansen and ???

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8 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

I have to disagree, I think there is a very good possibility the SP66 1794 dollar will set a new record.  This market may be slumping in the middle but the very tippy top is still flying and I think there are at least two whales out there that want the bragging rights.  After all ten million for many of the super rich is like lunch money to you and I.

I have to agree with Coinbuf; I think the 1794 Dollar will set a new record and I think there will be a few more 'surprises' out there for us.  Only my opinion.

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10 hours ago, World Colonial said:

Unless you are referring to existing US collectors, what you are describing is random buying, about as likely as winning some version of the lottery.

This same question was covered in a thread on the PCGS forum and two posters specifically disagreed with my contrary opinion.  I didn't elaborate then but it is easy to demonstrate that the chances of non-collectors or collectors located outside the US buying it are virtually zero.

The only people who have any inclination to buy this coin at a record price (or near it) are existing US collectors who can afford it, but this requires that they are in the market for multi-million dollar coins.  I'll grant one of these people may buy it at a record price.

Except for American expats, no coin collector outside the US has any motive to pay more for a US coin than their own. To believe it is unsubstantiated and no one can demonstrate it.  Non-collectors have even less reason.  In other words, absolutely none.  That's why they aren't collectors now.

I never made any reference to non collectors so I'm not sure where you got that from.

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42 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

The owner of the "Tyrant" collection can probably afford it.

That's who I was thinking of - and wouldn't have mentioned it if no else did. Definitely - two heavy weights. 

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5 minutes ago, Zebo said:

I'll be watching -- set the alarm just a bit ago.

I'm not sure the results will provide any indication.  There are only a very low number of coins which approach it's estimated value and this doesn't really include other 1794 dollars or even most 1804 dollars.

A prominent dealer posting on the PCGS forum once mentioned he estimated that maybe 100 collectors are in the market for MM coins.  (This was almost 10 years ago.) If "ballpark" accurate, it's probably a handful for this coin at the estimated price. 

Hansen can presumably afford it but somewhere on the PCGS forum (maybe that marathon thread, can't remember), one post noted that he has few or maybe no coins above $1MM but even if he does, none close to this price.

Same concept for Larry Miller and Partrick.  Both are or were big budget collectors who could afford this coin but whichever of the two owns a 1794 dollar, it's an MS-62 from what I heard.

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51 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

A prominent dealer posting on the PCGS forum once mentioned he estimated that maybe 100 collectors are in the market for MM coins.  (This was almost 10 years ago.) If "ballpark" accurate, it's probably a handful for this coin at the estimated price. 

There is no reason to believe that these type coins will be sold to collectors. There are a lot of investors looking for places to invest. 

Look at the rich Chinese. They'll spend a few million on a house in the US that they haven't seen and won't live in, just to get their money out of China. Why not spend a few million on small items that can be safely stored in a bank box out of China's reach?

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12 minutes ago, gmarguli said:

There is no reason to believe that these type coins will be sold to collectors. There are a lot of investors looking for places to invest. 

Look at the rich Chinese. They'll spend a few million on a house in the US that they haven't seen and won't live in, just to get their money out of China. Why not spend a few million on small items that can be safely stored in a bank box out of China's reach?

Good point - with all this stimulus around the world these days and the need to park some of it someplace - why not. 

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3 hours ago, World Colonial said:

I'm not sure the results will provide any indication.  There are only a very low number of coins which approach it's estimated value and this doesn't really include other 1794 dollars or even most 1804 dollars.

A prominent dealer posting on the PCGS forum once mentioned he estimated that maybe 100 collectors are in the market for MM coins.  (This was almost 10 years ago.) If "ballpark" accurate, it's probably a handful for this coin at the estimated price. 

Hansen can presumably afford it but somewhere on the PCGS forum (maybe that marathon thread, can't remember), one post noted that he has few or maybe no coins above $1MM but even if he does, none close to this price.

Same concept for Larry Miller and Partrick.  Both are or were big budget collectors who could afford this coin but whichever of the two owns a 1794 dollar, it's an MS-62 from what I heard.

I'm thinking may give an overall indication of the market for expensive coins. You may be right as far as MM coins, they may be in a tier of their own, unaffected by the lower ranks. The 94S dime might give us a hint. Will be entertaining for we of the hoi polloi in any case. 

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4 hours ago, gmarguli said:

There is no reason to believe that these type coins will be sold to collectors. There are a lot of investors looking for places to invest. 

Look at the rich Chinese. They'll spend a few million on a house in the US that they haven't seen and won't live in, just to get their money out of China. Why not spend a few million on small items that can be safely stored in a bank box out of China's reach?

I can give you many reasons why neither non-collectors nor non-US collectors are going to buy it.  If it was anything other than a virtually zero probability random event, the price level would reflect it.

The first is that the overwhelming proportion (wealthy or not) have never even heard of these coins.  Contrary to what US collectors believe, neither are that prominent, except to US coin collectors.  Outside of coin collectors, maybe a few percent who can afford either have both heard of it and remember anything about it. 

Generically, you could ask any random number of Americans (never mind from elsewhere) and except for collectors, it’s possible none will even know dollars were minted in 1794.  You could ask different questions to elicit the same answer and they still won’t know.  They don’t care because the coin or numismatics is irrelevant to them.  They would only possibly know of either coin from exposure to the mountain of trivial facts dumped on them continuously through the internet.  Except for US coin collectors, those who study early US history, economic historians and maybe potential “Jeopardy” participants are the only others with a motive to know anything about these two coins.

Are the most affluent US collectors familiar with the thousands of equally or more prominent art objects and other collectibles?  Do they know most of these objects exist either?  The answer is obviously not, either at all or only in very low proportion, since most of them don’t know much if anything about the most prominent world and ancient coins.

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3 hours ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

I'm thinking may give an overall indication of the market for expensive coins. You may be right as far as MM coins, they may be in a tier of their own, unaffected by the lower ranks. The 94S dime might give us a hint. Will be entertaining for we of the hoi polloi in any case. 

It went for $1,560,000 including juice.

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2 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

Looks like I was wrong about the health of the top end market, perhaps some hesitation due to market and political considerations??

It depends upon anyone's assumption of how many US based collectors can "comfortably afford" these coins.  For the 1794 dollar, I'd guess somewhere between five and 10 but have nothing to back it up.

There are at least a few though (like Hansen and Tyrant) and apparently, they just didn't want it badly enough.

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On 9/17/2020 at 3:04 PM, gmarguli said:

Look at the rich Chinese. They'll spend a few million on a house in the US that they haven't seen and won't live in, just to get their money out of China. Why not spend a few million on small items that can be safely stored in a bank box out of China's reach?

Mainland Chinese want gold bullion or the like, not numismatics with an American flavor.

But Hong Kong Chinese and other Asians might be more open to Saints and Liberty's and others that sell at a premium to bullion content.

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1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

It depends upon anyone's assumption of how many US based collectors can "comfortably afford" these coins.  For the 1794 dollar, I'd guess somewhere between five and 10 but have nothing to back it up.

There are at least a few though (like Hansen and Tyrant) and apparently, they just didn't want it badly enough.

I think right now there are two or three tops that can afford such a coin, but as you noted none were interested in stepping up.  In fact its been discussed many times that Hanson has a history of paying huge money for some coins but not for the extremely rare and uber expensive coins.

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7 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

I think right now there are two or three tops that can afford such a coin, but as you noted none were interested in stepping up.  In fact its been discussed many times that Hanson has a history of paying huge money for some coins but not for the extremely rare and uber expensive coins.

I'm going to clarify and qualify my last post.

The 2019 Ultra Wealth Report estimates over 17,000 with a net worth of $250MM+.  Subjectively, all of them should be able to "comfortably afford" this coin though I know it depends upon asset liquidity.  Another approximately 40,000 have a net worth between $100MM and $250MM.  Some proportion from this group (maybe one-third to one-half) can also "comfortably afford" this coin where it will still represent a relatively low proportion of their net worth.

The report provides geographic segmentation  but not by tier.  We also don't know what proportion of this population are coin collectors.  However, it should be somewhat higher than the general population in the US which is also higher than (practically) anywhere else. 

I have guesstimated 2MM "active" US collectors which is about 2/3 of 1%.  So maybe 1% from this group or somewhat more but it's still potentially over one hundred.  However, it's evident that even if this is accurate, almost none of these candidates are in the market for this one or the few other coins like it.  They won't risk the financial exposure, collect something else, and/or the attributes which US collecting considers such a big deal (in terms of quality) aren't important enough to them.

So to conclude, I think it's reasonable to assume quite a few more current collectors can afford this coin than many might think.  If what I write is not directionally accurate, then the very wealthy have even less interest than I believe in coin collecting.

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11 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Mainland Chinese want gold bullion or the like, not numismatics with an American flavor.

But Hong Kong Chinese and other Asians might be more open to Saints and Liberty's and others that sell at a premium to bullion content.

Wealthy Chinese want their money out of China. Either a piece of land in a stable country or tangible property that is easy to hold in a safe country. I'm sure many buy gold, but that is not practical for the very wealthy. Just $1 million would be 400 double eagles, or 20 PCGS blue boxes filled. Not practical.

 

3 hours ago, World Colonial said:

I have guesstimated 2MM "active" US collectors which is about 2/3 of 1%.  So maybe 1% from this group or somewhat more but it's still potentially over one hundred.  However, it's evident that even if this is accurate, almost none of these candidates are in the market for this one or the few other coins like it.  They won't risk the financial exposure, collect something else, and/or the attributes which US collecting considers such a big deal (in terms of quality) aren't important enough to them.

So to conclude, I think it's reasonable to assume quite a few more current collectors can afford this coin than many might think.  If what I write is not directionally accurate, then the very wealthy have even less interest than I believe in coin collecting.

2 million coin collectors in the US? Seems very high. There are only around 30K ANA members.  Lots of people buy proof sets or have a box of Morgan dollars from Las Vegas, but I wouldn't necessarily call them coin collectors. What about the people who collect from change, are they coin collectors? In my opinion, there is a difference between a true coin collector and one who just buys mint products or has a small accumulation of coins.

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18 minutes ago, gmarguli said:

 

2 million coin collectors in the US? Seems very high. There are only around 30K ANA members.  Lots of people buy proof sets or have a box of Morgan dollars from Las Vegas, but I wouldn't necessarily call them coin collectors. What about the people who collect from change, are they coin collectors? In my opinion, there is a difference between a true coin collector and one who just buys mint products or has a small accumulation of coins.

I agree, 2 million seems at least an order of magnitude too high. 

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53 minutes ago, gmarguli said:

Wealthy Chinese want their money out of China. Either a piece of land in a stable country or tangible property that is easy to hold in a safe country. I'm sure many buy gold, but that is not practical for the very wealthy. Just $1 million would be 400 double eagles, or 20 PCGS blue boxes filled. Not practical.

The yuan was in the crapper before the bio weapon was deployed and many think it was the reason.

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