RWB Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, numisport said: One pricing methodology I know of could be beneficial to some of you. You could track coins I buy and note the down arrows in nearly every coin I recently purchased. :) This works for a lot of us....! LINCOLNMAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bernard55 Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Suckers auctions and overrated valuations… Last night’s auction pitch: Quote “**Auction Highlight*** PCGS 1858-s Finest Known Gold Liberty Eagle $10 Graded au58 By PCGS. The 1858-s $10 Gold Eagle is UNKNOWN in Mint State and only 3 Coins have Graded au58 at PCGS. The several coins graded au58 by NGC are all considered lesser coins and if you compare the coins yourself, you will see they are barely equal to the au55 coins graded by PCGS. The coin at hand is featured on the PCGS page as the main example. The second coin graded by PCGS as au58 has never come to auction and the 3rd coin graded au58 by PCGS sold in 2019 at the Legend auction and shattered the record, selling for $43,475. The coin at hand is tied with that coin. Trends in au58 are $55,000. The coin at hand is your only possibility of owning the finest known for possibly the next 50 years as the coin that sold at the legend auction is now in a permanent collection and the 3rd au58 has never surfaced." The marketing was surprising correct, the PCGS value on 7/8/2020 on the coin was indeed $55,000 USD (Population = 3) Just another example that the valuation services of these companies are kind of meaningless. NGC had it much closer (~ half of PCGS and more in line with reality but still about 10K too high). NGC Value on 7/8/2020 = $24,000 USD (Census = 11). Graysheet Value $16,500 USD was much closer but isn’t that wholesale? And it’s still about 2k too high. Here are the assets in the market that are easy to find and their prices: · $21,500 (NGC) 4627744005 (currently for sale on CC) · $21,500 (NGC) 2103895010 (currently for sale on CC) · $14,500 7/8/2020 (PCGS) 39491066 · $16,800 on 2/2020 (PCGS) 84071909 · $43,475 on 1/2019 (PCGS) 36086486 <<the sucker... · $12,692 on 7/2019 (NGC) 1744539-003 · $14,400 on 1/2019 (NGC) 551161-018 · $16,849 on 2/2018 (NGC) 551161-018 · $15,275 on 4/2013 (NGC) 3606374009 · $16,100 on 8/2011 (NGC) 3166397002 · $14,950 on 1/9/2011 (NGC) 1872827004 · $14,950 on 9/26/2007 (NGC) 449577007 · $16,675 on 8/8/2007 (NGC) 1574510007 · $13,225 on 2/14/2007 (NGC) not published · $17,250 on 1/3/2007 (NGC) 1535826001 · $18,400 on 10/24/2006 (NGC) 357074002 · $15,525 on 9/7/2004 (NGC) not published Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Bob Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) Never mind. I found the auction website. Apparently, Key Date Coins is not an NGC fan. They do seem to like USCG, however. Edited July 9, 2020 by Just Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James_OldeTowne Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 On 6/10/2020 at 5:46 PM, bernard55 said: I love numismatics, always have... but now that I'm retired and want to put time and money to work on it I want to make smart investments. Your statement doesn't work for me, or it's at least confusing. Do you love NUMISMATICS - the pursuit and study of collectable coins? Or do you love INVESTMENTS? They are not the same! As a collector, all too many times, I have made a poor "investment" in a coin, simply because I had been looking for it for a long time and was ready to pony up. While the commercial return on my "investment" might be poor, the pleasure of owning it as a "numismatic" pursuit has repaid me many times over. Based on your statements, I think you should step way back for a moment and figure out what you're truly interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bernard55 Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 It's a big world. There is room for both of us. I also love Rigazzis and Annie Gunns :-) Crawtomatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VKurtB Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Can one love both but not the intersection as shown on your Venn diagram? I love investing, and I love numismatics, but I HATE HATE HATE investing in numismatics. See? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VKurtB Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Bernard, I'll say it again, as if it is needed. So-called "valuations" by both NGC and PCGS are not an important part of what they do and wise collectors do not look to their valuations as much other than a comparative guide over time, i.e., is it going up or down. Nobody takes them as gospel and you'd be well advised not to either. True valuations depend on in which segment of the market the transaction is being made. A four-figure coin will bring more at a major show auction than at a Pennsylvania backwoods auction, yet they do appear at the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbbpll Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, VKurtB said: Can one love both but not the intersection as shown on your Venn diagram? You're the symmetric difference then. (I had to look that up) Crawtomatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VKurtB Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 hour ago, kbbpll said: You're the symmetric difference then. (I had to look that up) Meh, I've been called worse. Crawtomatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VKurtB Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 But despite all that mishigas, I do try to keep all my “serious” coins in an NGC Collectors’ Society database, which tracks their FMV’s for me. I seldom even look at it, but I see the total is up again, although most by far are unchanged. The last time I looked was about a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bernard55 Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 VKurtB - yep-big world... room for everyone... even those with a disjunctive union :-) I don't disagree on the groups not being good at valuation... saying something is worth 55k or even 24k when it's really worth 14k shows a pure lack of proficiency at the task. "Nobody takes them as gospel" -- I'll remind all the coin dealers :-) Crawtomatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VKurtB Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Dealers tend to use the “Gray Sheet”, not NGC’s FMV’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bernard55 Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 (edited) sure, dealers use CDN to buy, but they use PCGS/NGC prices in marketing the asset. Stack’s Bowers links right to the pricing page https://www.stacksbowers.com/pages/lotinfo.aspx?LotId=1379232 LiveAuctioneer does it https://www.liveauctioneers.com/item/86627491_1945-d-mercury-dime-ngc-ms65-ngc-value-30 David Lawrence does it https://blog.davidlawrence.com/coins-we-love-memorial-weekend-wonders/ eBay does it https://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-S-SILVER-NATIONAL-PARK-QUARTER-SET-E-R-NGC-PF69UC-PK-LABEL-NGC-VALUE-125/193570517585?hash=item2d11b3b251:g:A2cAAOSwv51fDEWh even the small auctions in far off places do it https://app.northwestmissouriauctions.com/common/showflyer.php?i=1750 and http://www.myccsa.com/lot/288/1924-peace-1d-silver-dollar-graded-mint-state-68---pcgs-value--54380---ngc--90000.aspx heck, PCGS even references NGC values https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/item/1875-cc-20/8974/-7416339117186445614 Edited July 17, 2020 by bernard55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bernard55 Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 More on the topic that many of the generic coin auctions are for suckers and are marketing gimmicks (HA not included--they are actually pretty good)... Here is an example: This company liveauctioneers has been auctioning off and supposedly selling this same 1879-cc morgan MS 63 for $8500, then $8000 and then $7500 (PCGS has it at $6850) since 2017 (maybe earlier). They list it in an auction and then the computer bids the audience up but ends up not selling it and the computer wins because the company didn't get their prices. Audience (if there is one), just thinks someone else purchased the asset at a high price. They also do it under multiple different Auctioneer brands (I wonder why :-) ) -- net, buyer beware.... https://www.liveauctioneers.com/search/?keyword=1879-CC Morgan Dollar&sort=-hammerPrice&status=archive Crawtomatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Nub numismatics Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 That's just low. I know several dealers who use greysheet to sell too, not just to buy. Greysheet has become so common amongst collectors that they have begun using it as a price guide for themselves without regard that it's supposed to be for wholesale. This forces actual dealers to buy and sell even lower. Collectors "investing" in a coin might see this as a win in the short term (they spend less money so naturally the "investment" is better) but long term if they continue it will drive the prices of all coins down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conder101 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, Big Nub numismatics said: Greysheet has become so common amongst collectors that they have begun using it as a price guide for themselves without regard that it's supposed to be for wholesale. That line could have been said back in the 1970's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
