NGC Price Guide & Chart 0

[GoldFinger1969]

What's up with the chart and numbers for the NGC Price Guide, NGC ?

This is -- or could be -- a REALLY USEFUL tool for collectors and investors, especially novices.  Instead the numbers are all over the place.

Let's check out an MS62 1907 High Relief.  Should go for about $12,000 give-or-take.

But the chart has it at $19,000:

https://www.ngccoin.com/price-guide/united-states/gold-double-eagles/70/history/19135/62/

I'm not sure what the algorithim is to calculate the latest prices, because I only see sales data from late-2019, but even that isn't anywhere near $19,000:

https://www.ngccoin.com/auction-central/us/saint-gaudens-20-1907-1933-pscid-70/auctions/1907-high-relief-20-ms-fgrade-62-tgrade-62-coinid-19139

Am I using this tool correctly ?  I don't expect it to be super-accurate, but within 5-10% shouldn't be a problem.  30-40% seems really off.  I think the trend of the chart is still useful over longer periods of time, but it would be better if the end-point for the recent data was closer to reality.

[Voltyris]

Hello GoldFinger!

Hahah, the NGC price guide is in a different league. Really cements NGC's position as the No.1 in the industry, with a No.1 overestimation in price of each coin out there. PCGS' guide is more reasonable.

CDN: https://www.greysheet.com - is the best realistic guide out there. Collector/Dealer friendly, featuring prices for both parties.

--------------------------------

I like to think of the NGC price guide as the max price you should pay for a coin. It's a way for NGC to tell you, do not, under any circumstances, pay more than this amount : )

This is the only use I have for it. I bid the Price Guide Value if the coin in question is a brilliant one, or rather an attractive toned one (in my opinion). 

What's the best solution? A collector should conduct his own research based on latest auction realized prices, through NGC/PCGS auction realized prices portal. This is as accurate as it gets. Taking into consideration the features of the coin, surfaces, strike, etc... to determine min/average/max price to bid. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by Voltyris

[numisport]

Auction prices are only guides and show typical prices realized for typical coins offered for sale. Outstanding coins often don't make it to auction because collectors realize that they need to pay up for the better material. This is why CDN prices are often only relevant to dealers. When I see knockout coins I need, I am willing to pay what it takes to obtain them. 

[World Colonial]

Price guides seldom reflect actual market which changes constantly. It's more accurate for common frequently sold US coins but much if not most of it is just made up.

[GoldFinger1969]

20 hours ago, World Colonial said:

Price guides seldom reflect actual market which changes constantly. It's more accurate for common frequently sold US coins but much if not most of it is just made up.

I see the same "lag" on other Saints too, WC, and they are sold pretty frequently.  It looks like they have the raw data -- recent auctions -- uploaded, whatever they do to calculate price is just off. 

Maybe it's a smoothed monthly average or something, dunno. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[Voltyris]

14 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I see the same "lag" on other Saints too, WC, and they are sold pretty frequently.  It looks like they have the raw data -- ecent auctions -- uploaded, whatever they do to calculate price is just off. 

Maybe it's a smoothed monthly average or something, dunno. 

It's completely botched. There's no sense behind their guide : ) 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Voltyris

[numisport]

I think it is just a matter of priority for updating price guides. I don't really see the point to price guide maintenance since it's already done by many other group thinkers. I recently requested registry review for a couple dates in a set and it took 6 weeks to confirm info that has been known for decades. But guess what - they got 'er done for me ! I just don't see price guide maintenance to be a money maker. Can someone demonstrate that I am wrong ?

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, numisport said:

I think it is just a matter of priority for updating price guides. 

Agreed, it's not that hard to get recent auction data from some online sources, including NGC.

It's the actual CHART going back several years -- and longer -- that is very useful, IMO.

That's what I liked so much about Roger's new Saints book -- a 1976-2015 price table for every year/mint.

[World Colonial]

21 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I see the same "lag" on other Saints too, WC, and they are sold pretty frequently.  It looks like they have the raw data -- recent auctions -- uploaded, whatever they do to calculate price is just off. 

Maybe it's a smoothed monthly average or something, dunno. 

Yes, but there is also another reason.  Compared to actually liquid markets, there is a wide variation between sales even in the same grade, even when the sales occur in close proximity.  It's a combination of who is bidding (at auctions) and differences between individual coins, except maybe for widgets.

It's not accurate to think of coin values as a specific price point which is how every price guide I have ever seen is published.  It's actually a price range.

[kbbpll]

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

there is a wide variation between sales even in the same grade, even when the sales occur in close proximity

I was just noticing an example of it this morning. Two 1900 10c PCGS MS64, in the same auction. One $312, 10 bids. The other $840, 16 bids. The latter in an old holder with CAC. NGC price guide says $290 in MS64 and $575 in MS65. So both coins sold above the price guide, and the $840?? They think it would regrade at MS67? That CAC sticker isn't $500 worth. When looking at price guides and actual sales, I think it's often a matter of the psychology of "winning", more than the reality of value and the actual coins.

[Zebo]

50 minutes ago, kbbpll said:

I was just noticing an example of it this morning. Two 1900 10c PCGS MS64, in the same auction. One $312, 10 bids. The other $840, 16 bids. The latter in an old holder with CAC. NGC price guide says $290 in MS64 and $575 in MS65. So both coins sold above the price guide, and the $840?? They think it would regrade at MS67? That CAC sticker isn't $500 worth. When looking at price guides and actual sales, I think it's often a matter of the psychology of "winning", more than the reality of value and the actual coins.

Top pop for the new PCGS CAC registry set???  Just kidding!

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, kbbpll said:

I was just noticing an example of it this morning. Two 1900 10c PCGS MS64, in the same auction. One $312, 10 bids. The other $840, 16 bids. The latter in an old holder with CAC. NGC price guide says $290 in MS64 and $575 in MS65. So both coins sold above the price guide, and the $840?? They think it would regrade at MS67? That CAC sticker isn't $500 worth. When looking at price guides and actual sales, I think it's often a matter of the psychology of "winning", more than the reality of value and the actual coins.

I have an entirely different view of collecting, so while I am aware of what you describe, it's totally foreign to me.

I don't buy any US coins and have a very narrow focus which I have described here.  But no matter what I collect in the future, I'm never paying an outlier price for what is actually a common coin no matter what it looks like.  If I collected coins with the profile most collectors do, I would pay a "modest" premium but nothing more.  I know I can buy an essentially identical one tomorrow, in a few weeks, in a few months or maybe next year at least 95% of the time.  This applies even if the coin is actually scarce since the internet has made most coins easy to buy.

For the coins I do collect, I'll pay an "outlier" price, within reason.  I state "outlier" in quotes because I don't actually know what most of the coins I buy are "worth" and neither does anyone else.  They can't because not only has there not been a sale of a comparable coin "recently" in a similar grade or quality, there is no public sale at all.

For the past 5+ years, most of the coins I bought were in the $250 to $1250 range.  I'm a budget collector by US standards.  So, I'm willing to buy without established values because much or most of the time, I won't have a chance to buy another one for a long time, possibly until the same coin comes up for sale years or even decades later.  As I mentioned in a recent post here, there are plate coins from books and catalogues in my primary series that I have been waiting to buy for over 15 years with no luck.  There is also another which sold on eBay on the same day I bought one I do own (March 2002).  I'm still waiting for this coin to show up.

[kbbpll]

21 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

actually a common coin

You would be surprised how few the quality 1900-P dimes there are for sale, considering 17.6 million mintage. But I get what you're saying, and I'm no stranger to waiting 15 years for the right coin. In the example I cited it's just amusing to me how the price can be skewed by the "have to have THAT ONE" mentality, when there's another with barely a discernible difference in the same auction. And yet, sometimes I kick myself for not bidding just a little higher.

[World Colonial]

9 minutes ago, kbbpll said:

You would be surprised how few the quality 1900-P dimes there are for sale, considering 17.6 million mintage. But I get what you're saying, and I'm no stranger to waiting 15 years for the right coin. In the example I cited it's just amusing to me how the price can be skewed by the "have to have THAT ONE" mentality, when there's another with barely a discernible difference in the same auction. And yet, sometimes I kick myself for not bidding just a little higher.

I wasn't actually singling out 1900 dimes.  I was writing in general terms but wasn't clear.  I don't consider most Barber coinage to be that common.  It isn't scarce generically but a noticeable proportion of Barber dates seem to be more difficult to buy than many other US 19th century and earlier coins above low TPG equivalent grades.  This is from review of the TPG data mostly, though maybe it isn't representative due to the differences in value.

[GoldFinger1969]

8 hours ago, World Colonial said:

It's not accurate to think of coin values as a specific price point which is how every price guide I have ever seen is published.  It's actually a price range.

Totally agree.

If there are enough transactions, maybe throwing out the lowest and highest sales price (2 sales prices ?) would narrow the range a bit.

[GoldFinger1969]

WC and KB, you are both definitely right.  There is no doubt a premium paid by folks who want to get the coin NOW and not wait a few weeks....or months.....and as for a year ?  Forget about it.

For many collectors -- especially those with a few $$$ -- the greater fear isn't overpaying by 10% or 25% or even 50%....it's saying a year and a half later that they should have bid higher because nothing close to what they passed on has become available since.

Edited May 26, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

9 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

WC and KB, you are both definitely right.  There is no doubt a premium paid by folks who want to get the coin NOW and not wait a few weeks....or months.....and as for a year ?  Forget about it.

For many collectors -- especially those with a few $$$ -- the greater fear isn't overpaying by 10% or 25% or even 50%....it's saying a year and a half later that they should have bid higher because nothing close to what they passed on has become available since.

For most coins, even 50% premium isn't that much.  But at least 95% of the time, the only reason "nothing close to what they passed on" supposedly isn't available 18 months later is because US collecting exaggerates practically everything.  Only US collectors or those who use TPG as their benchmark (like in South Africa) do that.

In a prior post, I mentioned that maybe four 20th century US coins are actually rare excluding patterns, 1913 LHN (a fantasy coin) and specialization.  It's potentially actually three if Coin Facts is reasonably accurate: 1933 DE, 1927-D DE and 1933 Eagle.  These coins are actually difficult to buy.  Maybe a few of the gold proofs are scarcer than Coin Facts believes but if so, it only adds a few more.

Based upon Coin Facts, other US 20th century (and later obviously) are as I described in my earlier post.  An example is the 1920-S eagle.  It's legitimately scarce but it sold at least three time since 2018.  Maybe other collectors would consider that hard to buy but I would not.   So now we are back to grade scarcity and like most gold coins, a disproportionate percentage exist in higher grades versus silver and base metal coinage.   Anyone who has the money can buy it in a quality that would have satisfied practically any collector before the "hobby" became hyper financialized.

In world collecting, it's not noticeably different in Canada, Australia and much of Europe.  In the rest of the world, it is due to the lack of local collecting and prior communication limitations but even here, only a low proportion are actually rare in a quality most collectors traditionally would have accepted.  Usually, the coins are much harder to buy primarily because of the lower price level.  Of the very low proportion I follow, I have still seen enough sell intermittently.

Edited May 26, 2020 by World Colonial

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

In a prior post, I mentioned that maybe four 20th century US coins are actually rare excluding patterns, 1913 LHN (a fantasy coin) and specialization.  It's potentially actually three if Coin Facts is reasonably accurate: 1933 DE, 1927-D DE and 1933 Eagle.  These coins are actually difficult to buy.  Maybe a few of the gold proofs are scarcer than Coin Facts believes but if so, it only adds a few more.

But those coins are close to IMPOSSIBLE to get.  If not for the actual numbers (35 Eagles, 15 1927-D's, 1* 1933) then for the prices which can only be paid by a very wealthy individual or a dumbo who wants to spend his entire IRA on a coin or coins. 

I'd consider the 1907 High Relief to be "rare" especially in higher-condition.  Yeah, I know there are thousands available....but they can't make any more of them and thousands is not millions when you compare it to the population of many collectible nickles, dimes, quarters, and pennies.

But that's just me.

 

* For now....

Edited May 26, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

17 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

But those coins are close to IMPOSSIBLE to get.  If not for the actual numbers (35 Eagles, 15 1927-D's, 1* 1933) then for the prices which can only be paid by a very wealthy individual or an insufficiently_thoughtful_person who wants to spend his entire IRA on a coin or coins. 

I'd consider the 1907 High Relief to be "rare" especially in higher-condition.  Yeah, I know there are thousands available....but they can't make any more of them and thousands is not millions when you compare it to the population of many collectible nickles, dimes, quarters, and pennies.

But that's just me.

 

* For now....

The 1933 DE is impossible to buy for all intents and purposes.  The other two are not, except due to lack of money.  I also know that any coin is available at some price (if it exists) but I'm not talking about that.  I am referring to being able to track a coin down through the dealer network at a "reasonable" premium to "current value", even it isn't marketed for sale.  There are enough of both and practically any other US coins where this is feasible.  These two coins are also prominent enough where one or more professional numismatists or peer collectors will usually know who owns it.  It just isn't public knowledge.

I have subjectively classified the 1933 DE, 1927-D DE and 1933 eagle as rare because only one 1933 DE is available for private purchase and the other two don't come up for sale very often.  I wouldn't consider the other scarcer Saints (1920-S, 1921 and other later dates) or the 1920-S eagle as rare because the number of "high quality" examples cannot be considered low.  The coins are absolutely scarce because the total number of survivors is legitimately relatively low but other older and frequently noticeably more common coins have far fewer better quality examples.

Hardly any US collectors have the same definition I do because they don't collect coins that are actually hard to buy.

[GoldFinger1969]

5 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

The 1933 DE is impossible to buy for all intents and purposes.  The other two are not, except due to lack of money.  I also know that any coin is available at some price (if it exists) but I'm not talking about that.  I am referring to being able to track a coin down through the dealer network at a "reasonable" premium to "current value", even it isn't marketed for sale.  There are enough of both and practically any other US coins where this is feasible.  These two coins are also prominent enough where one or more professional numismatists or peer collectors will usually know who owns it.  It just isn't public knowledge....The coins are absolutely scarce because the total number of survivors is legitimately relatively low but other older and frequently noticeably more common coins have far fewer better quality examples....Hardly any US collectors have the same definition I do because they don't collect coins that are actually hard to buy.

I see where you are coming from, it's just to me that when MOST coins that are collected have tens of thousands available or hundreds of thousands and often millions....when you get total available at a few dozen or 100-150 tops, that's pretty rare.  Like the Saints you cited.

But agreed...it's a matter of perspective and you focus on another area so I get it.