Low Mintage 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle NGC Special Labels and Designations
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On November 13, 2019 at 11:54 AM, Conder101 said:

Seems like everything has "special" labels and designations now.

These are unavailable after about 15-18 minutes after going on sale. Cancellations may be availble at a later date, but it is unknown if that will happen or not. First day label doesn't mean much. Adding the COA number on the label is different as is slabbing the COA (PCGS). What's next - slabbing the sales receipt?  Some pretty high resale prices at this point. This may replace the 1995-W as the key to the series. A lot of interest. It will be interesting to see what they look like in hand.

Anyone pick one up at the Whitman Baltimore show yesterday? Heard the line was very long. Any Baltimore show reports (in general). I missed the show.

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On other forums, many people were very upset as they werent able to get this coin and stated the website crashed many times. Of course, immediately after these were sold out, many were being offered for very high prices.....ridiculous honestly, good thing I don't collect US coins anymore.

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On 11/15/2019 at 5:40 AM, Zebo said:

This may replace the 1995-W as the key to the series. A lot of interest. 

I'd rate the chances of this coin replacing the 95-W as the "key date" in the series as essentially nil.  The 95-W has it's price mostly by reputation, not any actual scarcity or the supposedly low mintage.  There are hundreds (at least) available for sale any day of the week, somewhere.

Going by anecdotal comments on coin forums and patterns of collector behavior, the collector base for these additional coins (which I consider to be marketing gimmicks) such as enhanced finishes, reverse proofs, etc. is noticeably lower than it is for the "regular" proofs.  It's "necessary" for a "complete" set if you allow someone else to define your collecting but not otherwise.

With coins like this, at issuance much of the "interest" isn't in real collecting but financial speculation.  I believe there is noticeable speculation with the 95-W as well but given the general popularity of the series and the relatively stable price over time, I assume that most who own it are actual collectors.

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46 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

I'd rate the chances of this coin replacing the 95-W as the "key date" in the series as essentially nil. ...

I think you underestimate the potential of this coin, which IMO will hit the $1000 level by year's end. It is the key to the series now, like it or not and I'd wager there are more than 30,000 SE collectors out there.

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Why? Every coin is "perfect" and will remain so for centuries.

Our Mint and hobby would be better served by issuing coins with creative, artistic designs -- and hiring a real Art Director to manage the design process and products.

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This seller has managed to sell 150 and currently more than 10 available. Multiply this buy 50 sellers that's 25% of the mintage + or -.

Makes you wonder how many were scooped up by a few, leaving the rest of us with microscopic crumbs, not even.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2019-S-Enhanced-Reverse-Proof-1-American-Silver-Eagle-Box-OGP-COA/202823258941?hash=item2f3935533d:g:7oQAAOSwXKddztPv

 

 

Edited by airflow89

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6 hours ago, RWB said:

Why? Every coin is "perfect" and will remain so for centuries.

Our Mint and hobby would be better served by issuing coins with creative, artistic designs -- and hiring a real Art Director to manage the design process and products.

Your definition of “perfect” must be more liberal than that of the major grading companies, who don’t require perfection for a grade of 70. Not all of the coins are “perfect” and if any of them are, there’s absolutely no assurance that they will remain that way for months or years, much less centuries. 

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14 hours ago, MarkFeld said:

Your definition of “perfect” must be more liberal than that of the major grading companies, who don’t require perfection for a grade of 70. Not all of the coins are “perfect” and if any of them are, there’s absolutely no assurance that they will remain that way for months or years, much less centuries. 

My definition of "perfect" is consistent with the source of "modern" grading: "just as it comes from the die." In context, this applies to trumped-up absurdities and the like.

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On 11/17/2019 at 12:42 PM, Senex said:

I think you underestimate the potential of this coin, which IMO will hit the $1000 level by year's end. It is the key to the series now, like it or not and I'd wager there are more than 30,000 SE collectors out there.

You ignored what I wrote.  $1000 is a lot cheaper than the 95-W, so yes, it could sell for that.

I said that the collector base is potentially a lot lower than for the 95-W because not all ASE collectors buy these ‘“extra” coins.  If some noticeable proportion don’t want it, no it isn’t the new key date.

It depends upon your assumptions which may differ from mine.  Sending this from my cell phone but can elaborate further later.

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On 11/18/2019 at 8:08 PM, World Colonial said:

You ignored what I wrote.  $1000 is a lot cheaper than the 95-W, so yes, it could sell for that.

I said that the collector base is potentially a lot lower than for the 95-W because not all ASE collectors buy these ‘“extra” coins.  If some noticeable proportion don’t want it, no it isn’t the new key date.

It depends upon your assumptions which may differ from mine.  Sending this from my cell phone but can elaborate further later.

I underestimated the potential of this coin, as it is up to $1K on eBay now. I don't know how many people who collect ASEs collect them all but I'm willing to bet more than 30K do.

Edited by Senex

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Yes but are them more than 30K who are willing to pay $1,000+ for it.  So far the answer appears to be yes, but a LOT of mint issues go high right out of the starting gate and then latter fall back.  Sometimes it can take years before the finally reach their bottom and stabilize.  And sometime the stabilize high well above issue price and sometimes they crash and eventually end up below issue.  It is too soon to say what the final price of this coin will be some years from now.  Look at the 2001 silver proof set.  Sole for $32, jumped to $300+ and stayed there for something like 12 years.  Then started sliding.  I think they are around $60 now and may still not have reached bottom.

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14 hours ago, Conder101 said:

Yes but are them more than 30K who are willing to pay $1,000+ for it.  So far the answer appears to be yes, but a LOT of mint issues go high right out of the starting gate and then latter fall back.  Sometimes it can take years before the finally reach their bottom and stabilize.  And sometime the stabilize high well above issue price and sometimes they crash and eventually end up below issue.  It is too soon to say what the final price of this coin will be some years from now.  Look at the 2001 silver proof set.  Sole for $32, jumped to $300+ and stayed there for something like 12 years.  Then started sliding.  I think they are around $60 now and may still not have reached bottom.

Now you are comparing apples to oranges.

Of course they (ASE) might crash & burn in the near or distant future but I think not and proof 70 CAC coins will be a pricey coin in the years to come, as will lesser examples.

 

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1 hour ago, Senex said:

Now you are comparing apples to oranges.

Of course they (ASE) might crash & burn in the near or distant future but I think not and proof 70 CAC coins will be a pricey coin in the years to come, as will lesser examples.

 

I don’t think CAC assesses ASE’s.

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23 hours ago, Conder101 said:

Yes but are them more than 30K who are willing to pay $1,000+ for it.  So far the answer appears to be yes, but a LOT of mint issues go high right out of the starting gate and then latter fall back.  Sometimes it can take years before the finally reach their bottom and stabilize.  And sometime the stabilize high well above issue price and sometimes they crash and eventually end up below issue.  It is too soon to say what the final price of this coin will be some years from now.  Look at the 2001 silver proof set.  Sole for $32, jumped to $300+ and stayed there for something like 12 years.  Then started sliding.  I think they are around $60 now and may still not have reached bottom.

Not relevant, prices are set at the margin.  With 30,000, it probably takes only a few hundred buying it at any one time to support the price, whatever it is now or later.  I can see several hundred selling per week, indefinitely.

The mintage on this coin was set intentionally low.  As absurdly overpriced as I believe it to be, even I don't see it returning anywhere near the issue price of $65 for the foreseeable future.  I just don't think it's a compelling financial value at the prices I have seen quoted in the forum posts I have read.

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On 11/20/2019 at 4:10 PM, Senex said:

I underestimated the potential of this coin, as it is up to $1K on eBay now. I don't know how many people who collect ASEs collect them all but I'm willing to bet more than 30K do.

This is my assessment of this coin and the ASE series:

1) A buyer (notice I didn’t say collector) base of maybe 250,000 attempting to complete a set, of some sort.

2) Most of this base is low budget, either cannot afford this coin or won’t buy it even if they can.  I estimate about 80% of all collectors won’t pay over $300 for a coin.

3) At minimum, a substantial minority are predominantly “silver stacker” financial buyers, not hobbyist collectors.  Many likely own one or more coins in this series (aside from the bullion coin) in multiple for speculation.  They don't care about this coin as a collectible and many will dump it when they find better uses for the money.

4) A substantial minority (at minimum) only collect the basic set, excluding reverse proof, enhanced finish…They aren’t looking to buy this coin either.

5) There are potentially more random collectors and speculators buying this coin (or the 95-W) than (hobbyist) set collectors.

6) Almost no bigger budget buyers collect this series as one of their primary sets, unless they primarily buy other NCLT.  It’s a sideline collection.

7) Dealers have an outsized influence on the price (versus most other coins) for some ASE because they own a noticeable proportion of the supply, all the time.

So, I agree with you that the ASE collector base is greater than 30,000.  I am also telling you that this isn’t particularly relevant with this coin, as most ASE collectors will never own it. The profile of the ASE buyer I described is primarily a low budget collector who can’t afford what they would actually prefer to buy or is primarily buying it for financial reasons.

I reach this conclusion because there isn’t much collecting associated with this coinage and this is what I see anecdotally in reading coin forums for over a decade, regularly.  A noticeable proportion (mostly older collectors) don’t consider it (and much or all other NCLT) to be real coins.  Additionally, anyone who has the money can literally buy the entire series in one day, unless they want some arbitrary number on a TPG label or toned examples.

The reality is that even though it was just recently issued, it is literally already one of the most overpriced coins in the world.  I’d rank the 95-W second, so this 2019 is hardly a compelling numismatic or speculative bargain.  The 95-W has been “dead money” for years with the 70 losing noticeable value as the TPG populations have increased.  This coin may appreciate as you imply despite its merits but it’s already an absolutely awful relative value, both as a collectible and financially.  The supposedly low mintage doesn’t change my analysis because this coin is more common in high quality versus every single competitor at a similar price.

If this sounds harsh, I’m not knocking it, only telling you that most hobbyist collectors don’t really find it (or the series) that interesting since there is no challenge to it. To the financial buyer, the most (or only) interesting aspect is their desire to make a windfall. 

This coin is only interesting enough to most buyers under the assumption that they can recover most, all or more than their money back.

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1 hour ago, Brandon1974 said:

What is your opinion on these coins serial numbers? Do you believe lower numbers are more valuable?

If you are referring to the TPGs deciding to put it in a holder, I can see that happening but you need to remember that its a first for any coin, at least to my knowledge.  I have heard this occurs in other collectible fields (such as currency) but its unchartered territory for coins.  No way to know if it will really catch on or not.

If you are referring to the COA without the coin, I don't think hardly any collector will care about that but I could be wrong.  Labels on holders add some premium when it has nothing to do with the coin either.

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From my last post it is clear that I think the coin will come back down in price, but I never made any predictions how far down it would go.  Down anywhere close to issue price?  No, I don't think we will ever see that, but I do think they will retreat from the prices they are bringing now.  And my comments don't really apply to 70's.  Those things exist in their own speculative and crazy world with no rhyme or reason.

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3 hours ago, Conder101 said:

From my last post it is clear that I think the coin will come back down in price, but I never made any predictions how far down it would go.  Down anywhere close to issue price?  No, I don't think we will ever see that, but I do think they will retreat from the prices they are bringing now.  And my comments don't really apply to 70's.  Those things exist in their own speculative and crazy world with no rhyme or reason.

I think it will lose value as well from the more recent prices I have heard.  More limited collector base versus 95-W.

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