W-Quarters 0

[Mathguy1986]

So there is this neat but interesting W Quarter stuff going on. The current market seemed flooded with the quarters. Prices have been on the flux as more coins enter the certification stage (price guides and Ebay prices seem to reflect this) however, should investment be also reflected when buying these quarters? As you know, grades typically flux as well, when the coins are longer in general circulation (sorta a law of diminishing returns). People have been buying the W's left and right at 64-68 grades. The mintage is only 2 million. Should one invest in this hype or pass? Could I invest long-term and buy a nice 65 or so -sit on it and hope values tend positive linear. Most Americans are unconcerned about collecting these quarters as only the collectors (professionals and dealers) summit them for grading. So I'll ask again, hype or no hype? Now with market flooding should these be taken seriously even though they are generalize circulation quarters ?

 

Dr. S

[Mohawk]

9 hours ago, Mathguy1986 said:

So there is this neat but interesting W Quarter stuff going on. The current market seemed flooded with the quarters. Prices have been on the flux as more coins enter the certification stage (price guides and Ebay prices seem to reflect this) however, should investment be also reflected when buying these quarters? As you know, grades typically flux as well, when the coins are longer in general circulation (sorta a law of diminishing returns). People have been buying the W's left and right at 64-68 grades. The mintage is only 2 million. Should one invest in this hype or pass? Could I invest long-term and buy a nice 65 or so -sit on it and hope values tend positive linear. Most Americans are unconcerned about collecting these quarters as only the collectors (professionals and dealers) summit them for grading. So I'll ask again, hype or no hype? Now with market flooding should these be taken seriously even though they are generalize circulation quarters ?

 

Dr. S

Hi Dr. S

First off, welcome to the forum!  As for W quarters having investment potential, I'd say that they do not have long term investment potential.  There are a few reasons for this.  The first one, you already brought up...it's not like the ATB quarters are a widely collected, popular series.  They're not and these W quarters are highly unlikely to change that.  So the long term demand scenario looks rather bleak for these coins and much of what determines the value of a coin is the demand for it.  Higher demand, higher price.  Secondly, 2 million isn't that low of a mintage.  There are some of the S mint business strike coins that have mintages below 2 million and some of the silver proofs have mintages well below that point and they aren't particularly valuable coins.  These coins are hot right now because they're being hyped up and because of what I call the "fad factor", meaning that they're the hot new thing and some people need to have the hot new thing right now.  Don't buy into the hype on this one.

I hope that this helps!

~Tom

Edited July 9, 2019 by Mohawk
Typo

[Mathguy1986]

Thanks Tom for your response.  It is clear from an investigation standpoint that these quarters do have that enviable "fad factor" as you had mentioned. I can honestly say that after collecting for 15 years I'm still guilty of wanting that one thing everyone else has. I'll admit; been there and bought the rolls looking for them in a hope of finding one (By the way I didn't). So I get the fad and loss interests in something some people would consider numismatic hype/market flooding on that sense. 

Tell me, I bought 2 different quarters one MS 64 NGC and MS 65 PCGS. Is it a terrible consequence that people will continue to pay $30 to $100+ for these quarters that dealers will continue to submit them for grading in hopes of this fad profit?

[Mohawk]

Hi again,

Well, I think that the first rule of thumb in collecting is that if you genuinely like something for its own sake, there is nothing wrong with acquiring it.  However, I don't think that the current price levels will be sustained.  When the first Lowell W mint quarters showed up, they were selling for over $100.  Now, you can pick up a lot of the W's for around $20 and that's still pretty high in my opinion, considering that lower mintage S mint business strikes of the quarters sell for a few dollars.  Slabbed examples will likely be valued higher than raw pieces in the long run as that tends to be a general rule of thumb, but if you're looking at these coins as investments that are going to hold their value or increase, I don't think that's a good idea.  These are not investment grade coins in any sense of the word.  Like most modern US Mint issues since around 1999, they're essentially numismatic fads that are having their moment in the sun right now but that will cool down considerably once the hype dies down and novelty wears off.  I really think that, based on 20 years of experience in this hobby, the value on these quarters is unsustainable.  They'll likely be well under $20 in about a year's time.

I hope that this was of some help!

~Tom

[Mathguy1986]

 

It does help and thank you for your experience in this matter. I have found it interesting regarding the S mints. My step-son found one in pocket change during the GACH and it only had 1.3 million struck and yet faded in price relatively quick when historical data was reviewed. 

[Mohawk]

5 minutes ago, Mathguy1986 said:

 

It does help and thank you for your experience in this matter. I have found it interesting regarding the S mints. My step-son found one in pocket change during the GACH and it only had 1.3 million struck and yet faded in price relatively quick when historical data was reviewed. 

You got it.....that's exactly why I think the W quarters are doomed price-wise.  But, it was still pretty cool that your step-son found an S quarter out in the wild.....that doesn't happen often at all! 

I'm glad I was able to help you out!  If you have any other questions, please don't hesitate to ask......this board is largely a friendly group made up of a lot of very knowledgeable people that are always glad to lend a hand when they can.

~Tom

[Mokiechan]

I am waiting for the day when I can buy all five, raw, for under 20.00. 

[Mathguy1986]

I have seen them raw but usually pushing $20 per coin.  Any prediction on market adjustment in price on them?

[Mathguy1986]

One more quick question Tom if I may. Pedigree is important, so could this substacate (justify) some W premiums in the future i.e. First discovery-First Week-Early Bird etc.?

[Mohawk]

8 minutes ago, Mathguy1986 said:

One more quick question Tom if I may. Pedigree is important, so could this substacate (justify) some W premiums in the future i.e. First discovery-First Week-Early Bird etc.?

In my opinion, no.  None of that will matter.  Those designations also fall under the "fad factor" as well.  Once the hype dies surrounding these, it won't matter what the label says.  It will impact all of the coins in the same way.  Those Early Release, First Strike etc. labels are honestly just more hype.  There are some Registry collectors that seek those labels, but nowhere near enough to justify any additional premium once these quarters die.

Once again, I hope that this helps!
~Tom

Edited July 10, 2019 by Mohawk

[Mohawk]

39 minutes ago, Mokiechan said:

I am waiting for the day when I can buy all five, raw, for under 20.00. 

I honestly think that day will come, Mokie, and not too long from now.  Wait until July 2020 and see how the prices are then.  I think you'll have your 5 piece W set at your price then.

[Conder101]

The state quarter coins were hot with strong prices until the program ended.  Then people moved on to the next hot item and  interest in state quarters flagged.  Once the ATB quarters end we will probably see the same thing even for the "low mintage" W quarters.  I believe ALL the S mint business strikes have mintages well below the W quarters and except for the REALLY top end pieces most of them are under $10, some down to $6.  And that is for slabbed coins.  With the lower mintage S coins doing that, I don't see much long term potential for the more common W's.

[Mokiechan]

17 hours ago, Conder101 said:

The state quarter coins were hot with strong prices until the program ended.  Then people moved on to the next hot item and  interest in state quarters flagged.  Once the ATB quarters end we will probably see the same thing even for the "low mintage" W quarters.  I believe ALL the S mint business strikes have mintages well below the W quarters and except for the REALLY top end pieces most of them are under $10, some down to $6.  And that is for slabbed coins.  With the lower mintage S coins doing that, I don't see much long term potential for the more common W's.

I understand the legislation authorizing the ATB Quarters allows for an extension of another 11 years, not sure if it is a Mint decision or if Congress has to approve the extension but with the  Canadization of the Mint, I predict more and more and more ATB Quarters. 

[Mohawk]

1 minute ago, Mokiechan said:

I understand the legislation authorizing the ATB Quarters allows for an extension of another 11 years, not sure if it is a Mint decision or if Congress has to approve the extension but with the  Canadization of the Mint, I predict more and more and more ATB Quarters. 

Oh yeah......and more ridiculous ASE's.  I'm waiting for the ASE that is a reverse proof that glows in the dark, lets you check your email with its packaging and has an O/CC mint mark.

[Mohawk]

16 minutes ago, Mohawk said:

Oh yeah......and more ridiculous ASE's.  I'm waiting for the ASE that is a reverse proof that glows in the dark, lets you check your email with its packaging and has an O/CC mint mark.

Actually....scratch the email thing.....that's actually pretty cool.  The US Mint definitely does not pursue cool these days, in my opinion.

[Mathguy1986]

Your right on the lack of creativity part on the mint. Some amazing designs are created outside the US such as the Australian Mint in my view. I'll admit it though, the W series had me hooked due to the intrinsic view collectors have with regarding a treasure hunt. I mean who doesn't enjoy tresure hunting?? Tell me something Mohawk,  dealers are aware or knowledgeable in market fads and hypes. Why sell the point to the lesser if the coin (W-quarters) are unstable market wise long term? Most dealers will be faced with this issue if the coins are sold back to them for less (possibly far less) than the initial value set by the market?

[Mohawk]

Well, Dr. S.....

I can give you my thoughts on that.  It's the fad factor again.  Many larger dealers have customers who are chasing the latest fads, no matter what the price, and things like the W quarters, the Apollo 11 coins and the Pride of Two Nations set are the very latest fads.  There is profit for dealers if they can get these things in quick and sell them quick.  And, it makes these customers happy.  If the dealers sell these things now, while they're hot, it won't matter if they're sold back to them later........because the demand has gone down, the price has gone down, and the dealer is re-buying them at a lower price, so the risk of loss in that part of this is minimal.  The problem for dealers comes when they buy the fads at the top of the market and they get stuck with them.....that's where the big risk is.  But you really can't blame many of the dealers for this.....their customers want this gimmicky, fad stuff, so they stock it because their customers want it.  If anyone is to blame for what happens in these situations, it's the mints, the grading services and some of the really huge sellers, like the guys on TV, who build the hype for this fad, gimmicky stuff.  But, at this point here in 2019, we've been dealing with gimmick, fad coins for two decades, ever since the State Quarters started.  It's part of the market and larger dealers basically have to accept it as such.  I'm a very small scale seller who only sells to fund his own collection and who only sells online, so I have the ability to say "screw this fad garbage" and not hurt my business.  Many dealers with brick and mortar shops don't have that same freedom in the same way because people will come in looking for this stuff because of the hype machine, so they stock it and hope that these customers may move on to better, more collectible and stable coins eventually.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Mohawk

[Mathguy1986]

That does make sense. Thanks for your input on the matter. If anything, I have used this GACH as a way of teaching my step-son the knowledge in: market trends, fads, slabs, and more importantly the fun behind the hunt. The coins may be less valuable as we discussed earlier but teach a fundamental basic that all young kids need to know. It gets him looking and like most experts and knowledgable dealers it starts somewhere in life. With most, it starts with the pocket change I think and hes excited about learning. Thanks again Mohawk.

Dr. S

[Mohawk]

9 minutes ago, Mathguy1986 said:

That does make sense. Thanks for your input on the matter. If anything, I have used this GACH as a way of teaching my step-son the knowledge in: market trends, fads, slabs, and more importantly the fun behind the hunt. The coins may be less valuable as we discussed earlier but teach a fundamental basic that all young kids need to know. It gets him looking and like most experts and knowledgable dealers it starts somewhere in life. With most, it starts with the pocket change I think and hes excited about learning. Thanks again Mohawk.

Dr. S

Dr. S.....

I think using the GACH as a teaching tool is a brilliant idea!  It's very good for that, and you're absolutely right....that's how all of us started, by looking at pocket change.  I got started in coins for the first time in 1988, when I was 8 years old and I found a 1947 Maple Leaf Canadian Cent in change.  So, my dad got me blue Whitman folders and we started looking for Canadian Small Cents to fill the book.  I still have the set (though the Whitman Folders have been changed) and it's still not entirely complete.  I fell away from collecting in high school, as many do, but I found my way back pretty quickly once I was out of high school, in 1999 when I was 19.  I've been doing it ever since then.  This whole thing can be a great educational experience and you have the opportunity to teach your step-son a very important lesson to learn in the hobby of today: beware the fads and the hype.  Have you taken your step-son to a local coin dealer yet?  If not, I'd highly recommend it.....it's a great experience to be able to both look at a lot of different coins at once but to also talk to some professionals, some of whom have been active the hobby for decades.

I'm glad that I've been helpful to you, Dr. S.  It sounds like you're doing a good thing for a young numismatist.  Well done!

~Tom

[Mathguy1986]

I do appreciate the advice. Yes, I have taken him to local dealers for the experience and sorta the "run-arounds" of how the system works. I also started young. My grandmother was my inspiration behind my collecting. Of course, moving through school-college and eventually my Ph.D at 33 ( current old age) taught me a lot in my schools. I was the only collector so it was sad to see so many people not interested in a unique hobby. 

[Conder101]

On 7/10/2019 at 5:05 PM, Mokiechan said:

I understand the legislation authorizing the ATB Quarters allows for an extension of another 11 years, not sure if it is a Mint decision or if Congress has to approve the extension

The decision is that of the Secretary or the Treasury and the time is running out (if it hasn't already) for the decision to be made.

[Mokiechan]

5 hours ago, Conder101 said:

The decision is that of the Secretary or the Treasury and the time is running out (if it hasn't already) for the decision to be made.

Thanks Condor, the applicable clause reads as such:

‘(i) DETERMINATION.—The Secretary may make a determination before the end of the 9-year period beginning when the first quarter dollar is issued under this subsection to continue the period of issuance until a second national site in each State, the District of Columbia, and each territory referred to in this sub-section has been honored with a design on a quarter dollar.

So I would guess the program will not be extended, since we have heard nothing to indicate it will be.