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Gradeflation question
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11 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, physics-fan3.14 said:

It's more like a grade-accordion. It expands and contracts. 

Which is kind of what you'd expect really.

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50 minutes ago, Revenant said:

Which is kind of what you'd expect really.

I was under the impression that the grading companies had reference sets in different grades,which they use to maintain consistency. Do they replace the coins in their sets, or do they change the way they interpret the marks and flaws on the coins? Or, maybe the individual graders don't even use these reference sets, once they get some experience under their belt.

And what is that machine that is your avatar picture?

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1 minute ago, Just Bob said:

I was under the impression that the grading companies had reference sets in different grades,which they use to maintain consistency. Do they replace the coins in their sets, or do they change the way they interpret the marks and flaws on the coins? Or, maybe the individual graders don't even use these reference sets, once they get some experience under their belt.

Even with reference pictures, no 2 coins are ever going to be completely identical in terms of bagmarks, etc and there's always going to be some degree of subjectivity. With most such things, you're going to see a cycle where-in people tend to get gradually more lax. At a certain critical point, the laxness will become unacceptable, and you'll get a push-back / drive to return to higher / stricter standards. Sometimes with this you also tend to see an over-correction to being too strict for a while. Then people will start to gradually relax again. It's pretty much just human nature. I don't know how you'd avoid it.

1 minute ago, Just Bob said:

And what is that machine that is your avatar picture?

I play games - tabletop and PC - in a fictional universe that's been around for 35 years now that goes under the label "BattleTech" / "MechWarrior." The machine in the avatar is a Drone in that setting that is called a Revenant.

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 If a coin is graded too conservatively, it can be resubmitted over and over again and can eventually go up in grade. But if a coin is graded too loosely, odds are extremely good that it will not go down in grade. So I believe that grade-flation will continue.

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18 hours ago, MarkFeld said:

 If a coin is graded too conservatively, it can be resubmitted over and over again and can eventually go up in grade. But if a coin is graded too loosely, odds are extremely good that it will not go down in grade. So I believe that grade-flation will continue.

I had a chance to ask someone view 2 seated half dimes from Heritage auction recently. Ther person who viewed 2 coins for me said they were pretty, but didn't agree with the assinged grades. If gradeflation continues, do I have to adjust to the "new" grading standards? Otherwise, I'll keep losing my bids on pretty coins :|

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Well when you start seeing a lot more MS68 and MS69s for the older classic coins then you'll know that we're approaching the end of gradeflation.  I say this tongue in cheek, but as the grades in the MS67 range keep rising the big registry whales will keep putting pressure to upgrade their 67+'s in order to maintain a number one set so I think a rash of MS68's is just a matter of time.  As I look at the Lincoln series (my primary series) the prices for MS65 and MS66 coins have dropped like rocks as more and more 67, and 67+ grades keep getting pumped out.

As to do you need to adjust to the new standards only you can answer that question, however market grading will only continue to get worse in the near term I fear.  I am not a fan of this market grading system myself but I have no way to change it so I have begrudgingly knuckled under and accepted. 

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6 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

Well when you start seeing a lot more MS68 and MS69s for the older classic coins then you'll know that we're approaching the end of gradeflation.  I say this tongue in cheek, but as the grades in the MS67 range keep rising the big registry whales will keep putting pressure to upgrade their 67+'s in order to maintain a number one set so I think a rash of MS68's is just a matter of time.  As I look at the Lincoln series (my primary series) the prices for MS65 and MS66 coins have dropped like rocks as more and more 67, and 67+ grades keep getting pumped out.

I think I'm always going tp be one of those people that goes for making a set that makes me happy and competing for "best presented" awards instead of best US or best World. The sets that I love I love and I enjoy working on their presentation. Sometimes I win a category here or there. I'll spend some money to try to chase rankings in some cases but I just don't see myself having the kind of cash it takes to get into tank fights with grades. I think the set of Texas Commems I built with my step father is a good example - it's a great set with a lot of gem grade coins - but I don't see myself ever spending money to go for 67s and 68s just to be able to say I have the best set.

The idea of spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to regrade already graded coins to (maybe) get a slightly higher grade and win in the registry is and (I hope) may always be baffling to me. I haven't even managed to convince myself to cross my 1875 10G from PCGS to NGC yet.

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3 minutes ago, Revenant said:

I think I'm always going tp be one of those people that goes for making a set that makes me happy and competing for "best presented" awards instead of best US or best World. The sets that I love I love and I enjoy working on their presentation. Sometimes I win a category here or there. I'll spend some money to try to chase rankings in some cases but I just don't see myself having the kind of cash it takes to get into tank fights with grades. I think the set of Texas Commems I built with my step father is a good example - it's a great set with a lot of gem grade coins - but I don't see myself ever spending money to go for 67s and 68s just to be able to say I have the best set.

The idea of spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to regrade already graded coins to (maybe) get a slightly higher grade and win in the registry is and (I hope) may always be baffling to me. I haven't even managed to convince myself to cross my 1875 10G from PCGS to NGC yet.

My approach to the Registry when I was active in it was very similar to yours, as you know well :).  I think that there are many approaches in the NGC Registry game that can lead a talented and passionate collector to success.  But the most important thing, I think, is to collect what you love and let the chips fall where they may.  That way, you'll have a collection you love no matter what you do and no matter if you win or not.  And, honestly, I'm much happier that I won a Most Creative and a Best Presented.  Those awards meant much more to me than a Best in Category would have.

As for your Dutch gold....I would cross them to NGC.  In my experience with non-US coins, which is pretty substantial, it's much better to have non-US material in NGC holders than PCGS.  You know how there are a lot of US collectors and dealers that are all "PCGS only".......yeah, there's a decent amount of that on the non-US side of things, only it's "NGC only".......just my two denarii on the issue :)

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On ‎7‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 2:18 PM, Revenant said:

I think I'm always going tp be one of those people that goes for making a set that makes me happy and competing for "best presented" awards instead of best US or best World. The sets that I love I love and I enjoy working on their presentation. Sometimes I win a category here or there. I'll spend some money to try to chase rankings in some cases but I just don't see myself having the kind of cash it takes to get into tank fights with grades. I think the set of Texas Commems I built with my step father is a good example - it's a great set with a lot of gem grade coins - but I don't see myself ever spending money to go for 67s and 68s just to be able to say I have the best set.

The idea of spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to regrade already graded coins to (maybe) get a slightly higher grade and win in the registry is and (I hope) may always be baffling to me. I haven't even managed to convince myself to cross my 1875 10G from PCGS to NGC yet.

I think that you have an excellent outlook and way of putting together your collection.  I have always known that my Lincoln registry set could never reach a #1 status I simply don't have the deep pockets required, in fact I'm surprised I was able to get as high as I am.  But I always keep that in perspective and realize that I like my set no matter where it ranks and that is all that I need.  I have won some awards for some #1 year sets and there is a certain satisfaction is doing so thus I do understand the desire and feeling of winning registry awards.

Overall the registry just gives me a place to share and show coins that I find to be interesting and beautiful, and to view coins that others feel similarly about.  I have many coins that I think and feel could and would upgrade (I suspect that most collectors do) which would raise my scores, but I too have no desire to resubmit, resubmit, and resubmit some more just to gain registry points.  I understand that for some the desire to have a #1 set is a strong driving force and they are very willing to play the resubmit game.  And I do have one set that I would like someday to reach the number one spot with, its a set with a personal connection for me so perhaps one day.  Mostly going forward I plan to continue adding pictures and descriptions to my coins/sets as the sharing of these shiny disks is really the best part of collecting for me.

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