What's the deal on Canadian silver coins?

[investinrehabs]

The Royal mint puts out a ton of silver coins. A lot of them are colored as well. I noticed that many of them have production limits of 5 or 10,000. Yet, I don't see most of them going up in value. Is it because they put out so many different coins?  I would think a run of only 5000 coins would sell out in heartbeat and also go up in price!  Please let me know your opinion on this.

[Mohawk]

10 hours ago, investinrehabs said:

The Royal mint puts out a ton of silver coins. A lot of them are colored as well. I noticed that many of them have production limits of 5 or 10,000. Yet, I don't see most of them going up in value. Is it because they put out so many different coins?  I would think a run of only 5000 coins would sell out in heartbeat and also go up in price!  Please let me know your opinion on this.

Well......I'm not really a guy who collects as an investor, but I do think that the Canadian issue is a complex one.  I think that any upward potential of any particular issue has more to do with the theme and design of the coin in question than the mintage figures.  You have to take into account the large number of issues that the RCM puts out in a year, so very few collectors endeavor to purchase and collect every single piece that the RCM puts out in a year.  However, the large number of issues that the RCM puts out in a year and the wide variety of designs indicates that the RCM is actually in touch with one of the main modes of collecting that younger collectors participate in: thematic collecting.  If you think about it, to the collector who desires to collect EVERYTHING, the large number of RCM issues in a year is off putting.  But to thematic collectors, it's likely that the RCM will put out one or two issues every year that you pick up.  The RCM is smart here....they're selling to younger collectors more than older collectors.  They see where the hobby is going and sell accordingly, rather than the US Mint, which is stuck in the past and produces mostly unmemorable, mediocre products. 

So, to answer this question, you have to look at what themes retain their popularity year after year.  I'd say that the most popular themes over they years from the RCM are their animal coins, the Venetian Glass coins, their Canadian History coins, their Swarovski crystal coins and their allegory coins.  Their nostalgia coins, which feature old designs given a modern facelift, also seem popular as well.  It's hard to predict what the next winner will be, but I'd say mintage is the smaller part of this.  I've seen coins that are less attractive and that have mintages of 5,000 or so that haven't sold out in two years and that have not gone up in value because everyone who wanted the coin already has it and there is no additional demand.  You can't approach this issue from a series collector mindset, so put the mintage figure in second place.  The RCM doesn't sell to series collectors that much.  They sell to thematic collectors.  Those are the collectors who often seek RCM issues, so you need to think like them if you're looking for a financial upside  You need a good theme that collectors will want initially and continue to want to go along with a lower mintage figure.  What I would recommend is looking at the RCM's website.  They will tell you how many coins that a particular issue has sold in addition to the mintage limit.  Look at which cons have sold the best, examine the themes that are depicted on these coins and you'll begin to get a feel for what sells well and what doesn't.  Then, look at Ebay and see which of these issues have sold for a profit by checking completed listings.  That should enable you to see which coins have enduring popularity and demand.

That said.......collecting coins as an investment is a tough thing to do.  I myself do not attempt to do it.  I collect what I like and if the financial upside comes with it, then it does.  I do sell coins and I do make a profit at it, but I certainly do not make a living at that.  My coin sales allow me to keep collecting while I'm working on finishing my education and it does provide some extra money for other things, if required (you know, those little life bumps in the road, like auto repairs and things).  And I was a collector only for 10 years before I ever thought to attempt selling coins for a profit.  It took me that long to gain the necessary knowledge to do so successfully, and even then I had some bumps in the road when I was starting out.  It's usually a dangerous game to go into coins for just an investment, from what I've seen.  Most people that manage to make money from coins usually manage to do so after spending years or decades as collectors, chasing coins as a passion, not as an investment vehicle.  There is so much that is learned from being a passionate collector that is much harder to learn if simply viewing coins as an investment commodity.  Coins are something to do because you love coins, not really as an investment, per se.  As I said to another poster here, if your primary goal is financial gain, there are many investments out there that are easier to pursue and that require a lot less education than coins.

As always, I hope this is of some help to you!

Cheers

~Tom

[JKK]

I think your first sentence holds the key. If they put out many different designs, there's a limit to the total demand and it gets divided up between more issues. Obviously they can't just mint infinite designs and expect to make infinite money, so there is a limit. Plus, a lot of coin collectors do not have any interest in modern stuff and wouldn't pay them bullion for it, much less a premium.

[Mohawk]

17 hours ago, JKK said:

I think your first sentence holds the key. If they put out many different designs, there's a limit to the total demand and it gets divided up between more issues. Obviously they can't just mint infinite designs and expect to make infinite money, so there is a limit. Plus, a lot of coin collectors do not have any interest in modern stuff and wouldn't pay them bullion for it, much less a premium.

I have to disagree with your statement about moderns.  I feel that you are incorrect.  Look at how many modern sets are being pursued on the Registry here.  In a similar statement, it could be said that a lot of coin collectors do not have any interest in classic coins, especially classic US, which in many ways appears to be moving in a downward demand and pricing trend as time moves on. There are many collectors out there that only collect moderns, or that do moderns and classic.  I myself pursue moderns along with classic world and I sell many modern coins.  I never really have any problems making sales either, so from where I'm standing, there is a demand for moderns.  Like classic coins, there are good moderns and bad moderns.  I think that one has to look at the individual coinage issue on this one. 

[JKK]

5 hours ago, Mohawk said:

I have to disagree with your statement about moderns.  I feel that you are incorrect.  Look at how many modern sets are being pursued on the Registry here.  In a similar statement, it could be said that a lot of coin collectors do not have any interest in classic coins, especially classic US, which in many ways appears to be moving in a downward demand and pricing trend as time moves on.  I know for myself, classic US bores me to tears, and I know many younger collectors who feel the same way.....but these same people eagerly collect moderns.  I myself wouldn't buy Liberty Head gold for bullion price, that's how ugly I think those coins are.  I myself pursue moderns along with classic world and I sell many modern coins.  I never really have any problems making sales either.  There is a demand for moderns.  Sorry for the snark.....I'm just tired of the modern bashing.

I don't think anything I said rises to the level of "modern bashing." I don't mind you taking issue with something I actually say, but I'd rather not be the venting point for things others evidently have said, but that I had the courtesy and respect not to say.

[investinrehabs]

I think you both have a point. We're all entitled to our own opinion. Look, whatever blows your skirt up is ok! As a fairly new collector, I'm glad 2 differing opinions were voiced. Both of them give me food for thought. I mostly collect coins that I like. I'm not in it for the money. However, at times I'd like to buy quantities of the mint coins, so that I can make some extra money on them and buy others. It's not an easy task trying to figure out which coins will bring decent money. Look at the 2019 Congratulations set. People are selling that for over $120 on ebay. Are you kidding? There's NOTHING special about the coin and yet, people must be snatching them up. One company is selling a 70 with a brown label for $209!! I would have never thought that coin would be worth more than the price of the Eagle. I think down the road, people are going to be really sorry they bought that puppy dog. New collectors must be thinking that the '19 is worth a lot because of the "17 and '18....IDK. 

Getting back to the Canadian coins, Mohawk, I appreciate your take on them. It makes perfect sense.I look at them and see some nice coins but then they have so many, it's hard to decide what to buy. Also, many of them come out every year, so what's a person to do? I did  notice they go after the younger market, with their cartoon characters. That's a smart move. Although their coins aren't cheap, it makes me wonder how they can afford to make so many dyes and be profitable, when they put out so few. 

[Mohawk]

11 hours ago, JKK said:

I don't think anything I said rises to the level of "modern bashing." I don't mind you taking issue with something I actually say, but I'd rather not be the venting point for things others evidently have said, but that I had the courtesy and respect not to say.

That's fair JKK, very fair.  Once again, sorry for getting snarky.  May I extend the olive branch now?

Quote

Look, whatever blows your skirt up is ok!

Investinrehabs is so right here.  We all collect coins.  We're all part of the same community. A big part of what makes this place interesting and fun is that there is such a diverse community of collectors who all collect different things.  We should all be on the same side.  Once again, sorry that your post hit a nerve and that I responded in the way that I did.  I really do apologize. 

 

[JKK]

2 hours ago, Mohawk said:

That's fair JKK, very fair.  Once again, sorry for getting snarky.  May I extend the olive branch now?

 

It's all good, Mohawk, thanks. It wasn't that harsh to begin with. You're one of the site's best at helping new folks, and you're prepared to do it in areas where I'm a vast pool of ignorance, and I respect that and your knowledge.

The thrust of my own original comment was, in essence, that some buyers may have higher appreciation expectations of modern coins then the economics would suggest. Unlike older stuff, the mints can always make more of this year's new stuff (unless they have stated that they will limit the edition), thus diluting the overall interest simply because there are only so many dollars available to be spent in that direction. If there are more issues, that buying dollar pool is divided further with less individual demand for each issue on average. And with so many countries issuing so very many high-grade modern proofs and such, the supply pool seems larger now than ever before.

[Mohawk]

1 hour ago, JKK said:

It's all good, Mohawk, thanks. It wasn't that harsh to begin with. You're one of the site's best at helping new folks, and you're prepared to do it in areas where I'm a vast pool of ignorance, and I respect that and your knowledge.

The thrust of my own original comment was, in essence, that some buyers may have higher appreciation expectations of modern coins then the economics would suggest. Unlike older stuff, the mints can always make more of this year's new stuff (unless they have stated that they will limit the edition), thus diluting the overall interest simply because there are only so many dollars available to be spent in that direction. If there are more issues, that buying dollar pool is divided further with less individual demand for each issue on average. And with so many countries issuing so very many high-grade modern proofs and such, the supply pool seems larger now than ever before.

Thanks for forgiving me my snarky moment there, JKK.  We all have our off days, and I was having one.  I'm writing my doctoral dissertation, and that can get stressful.  Also, thanks for the kind words overall.  Glad we're cool again  And what you brought up now is definitely on point.  Though the RCM is good at targeting thematic collectors, they are losing sight of series collectors, which there are still a lot of.  When you look at what the RCM (and other modern mints) are doing now from a series collecting standpoint, it IS excessive and overwhelming.  This does undoubtedly cost these mints customers.  Though I think the variety offered by many World mints is a definite improvement on the largely lackluster and tired output of the US Mint, there is such a thing as taking it too far.  In some ways, I would say that the RCM has done that very thing.  There are only so many collectors and so much collector money to go around, and there is a ton of competition for those dollars.  I definitely agree with you that this fact can hurt the long term value outlook on many modern issues. 

[JKK]

I am reminded of the sports card glut of the 1990s and 2000s (for all I know perhaps it's still going on to some degree). Was anyone going to make a serious attempt to collect all the football cards for a given year? If that were the goal, they just sold complete sets; all one needed do was flash the plastic. But there were so many, so competitive, trying so hard to outdo the competition in flash and glitz. There were only so many dollars out there, and too many competitors for each buck. And unlike silver coins, pieces of pasteboard have no inherent value.

[Mohawk]

33 minutes ago, JKK said:

I am reminded of the sports card glut of the 1990s and 2000s (for all I know perhaps it's still going on to some degree). Was anyone going to make a serious attempt to collect all the football cards for a given year? If that were the goal, they just sold complete sets; all one needed do was flash the plastic. But there were so many, so competitive, trying so hard to outdo the competition in flash and glitz. There were only so many dollars out there, and too many competitors for each buck. And unlike silver coins, pieces of pasteboard have no inherent value.

I think that's a fair comparison in some ways.  I think that the modern coin "glut" is more controlled by mintage limits by many World mints (Though they have their faults, the RCM and Perth Mint are pretty good at keeping mintages low).  However, there are other issues that definitely have that problem.  Look at the 2014 Baseball coins from the US Mint.  I believe that both the Gold $5 and the Silver Dollars sold out, which means that there are 400,000 Baseball Silver Dollars out there and I believe 50,000 Baseball Gold $5's. When they came out, they were hotter than the surface of Venus, but who wants them now?  The answer to that one is almost no one.  And the Apollo coins that just came out look like they're headed in the same direction.  I actually think that, in continuing in the comparison to the late 1980's and early 1990's sport card insanity, the US Mint is the worst offender out there.  I've often thought myself that they are doing exactly what Topps, Fleer and Donruss (can you tell that when I worked at a coin store, the owner sold sports cards as well?) and the long-term projection for many of those coins is not good.  In addition to the commemoratives, most of which are pretty lackluster, think about the repulsively titanic amount of Silver Eagles that are churned out every year now.  Even the proofs end up with production figures in the hundreds of thousands. 

However, I would say from my perspective that this issue didn't really start in a huge way until the advent of the State Quarter program at the end of the 1990's.  Before that, there are some moderns that are collectible, valuable and that will hold their value I think.   The State Quarters changed all of that and turned coins into something like the 1980's and 1990's sport cards, at least for the US Mint.  I still don't think that the sport card comparison is exactly on point for the RCM and other World mints because they do keep the mintages of their various issues pretty low.  I don't think the problem is overproduction of individual coins in those cases, it's too large of a number of issues for series collectors to keep up with, which is an important difference between those moderns and the sports cards.  ALL of the sports card issues were overproduced, every single one of them  Believe me, I know, both from working in the coin shop and from my fiancee's cousin.  He was into sports cards then and he still has totes of the things that no one wants.  Now, the US Mint's products and how they've approached their modern programs since the State Quarters.......that's a repeat of the 1980's and 1990's sports cards all day long.