Key Date Custom Registry Set

[Davids5104]

I am making a key date registry set.  The coins included have to be available in any grade for 500 dollars or less.  It is only for circulation issue penny to dollar...  Have I missed anything?  it is 70 coins.  I am going to remove a few that are included that arent keys.... have not done franklin or kennedy yet.  

https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/WCM/CoinCustomSetView.aspx?s=25448

[Mohawk]

I noticed some modern keys that are well within your price range that you don't have listed.  For the cents, I'd say the 1970-S Small Date and the 1981-S Type 2 would certainly count as key dates in the Lincoln series.  Also, if you're planning to add Anthony Dollars, the 1979 and 1981-S Type 2 coins and the 1979-P Wide Rim would fit what you are planning to do as well.  I do not know what you are planning for Kennedy Halves, but if I were to think about key dates there, I would definitely say the 1970-D, the 1998-S Matte and the 1979 and 1981-S Type 2 coins would be considered keys in that set.  I also didn't see the 1916-S Walking Liberty Half or the 1909-S no VDB Lincoln Cent.  I'd count those as keys that you can get for under $500 in circulated grades as well.  Just some thoughts since you asked for input.  I hope it's helpful and best of luck on your new venture!!

[Davids5104]

thanks for the addition recommendations.   I will add those.  I think I am going to remove or not include those with condition rarity, so the name of key dates is the primary definition, followed by circulation strike with no varieties for less than $500.  Does anyone else have a set like this that I could look at?

[World Colonial]

IHC: make sense

Lincoln cents: I'd also add the 1909-S but remove the 1924-D.  Also, there are several die varieties and errors in this registry set from other denominations.  By tradition, the 1922 "no D" and 1955 DDO belong before the other coins.

Barber nickel: Remove the 1912-D

Buffalo nickels: Remove all except the 1926-S and 1937 3-legged

Jefferson nickel: Remove the 39-D

Barber dime: Remove all of them

Mercury dime: Remove the 1926

FDR dime:  Maybe keep the 1982 "no P", get rid of the rest

Barber quarter: Get rid of the 1897-S

SLQ: Get rid of all of them.  Add the 27-S which must be available for less than $500 in some grade.

Washington quarter:  Only the 32-D and 32-S

Barber half: Get rid of all

WLH: Remove the 1917-S, 1919-D and 1938-D

Kennedy half:  There are none

Morgan: OK

Peace:  Leave the '28 and '34-S

Ike:  There are none.  The coin listed is a die variety.

My subjective criteria:  Primarily the difficulty of finding a coin from circulation when most collectors actually completed their sets from circulating change.  Seems to me that this set has numerous contrived "keys" arbitrarily included just to include most types.  Only one I do not see is the Franklin half.  Also, I don't believe many of these coins were ever hard to find from circulation or even to buy from a B&M during this era (1933 to maybe early 70's).  None of these coins are remotely difficult to buy in the internet era.  Lastly, I wouldn't include any coin not made for circulation, such as the 70-D half and 1998 SP half.

[Davids5104]

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

IHC: make sense

Lincoln cents: I'd also add the 1909-S but remove the 1924-D.  Also, there are several die varieties and errors in this registry set from other denominations.  By tradition, the 1922 "no D" and 1955 DDO belong before the other coins.

Barber nickel: Remove the 1912-D

Buffalo nickels: Remove all except the 1926-S and 1937 3-legged

Jefferson nickel: Remove the 39-D

Barber dime: Remove all of them

Mercury dime: Remove the 1926

FDR dime:  Maybe keep the 1982 "no P", get rid of the rest

Barber quarter: Get rid of the 1897-S

SLQ: Get rid of all of them.  Add the 27-S which must be available for less than $500 in some grade.

Washington quarter:  Only the 32-D and 32-S

Barber half: Get rid of all

WLH: Remove the 1917-S, 1919-D and 1938-D

Kennedy half:  There are none

Morgan: OK

Peace:  Leave the '28 and '34-S

Ike:  There are none.  The coin listed is a die variety.

My subjective criteria:  Primarily the difficulty of finding a coin from circulation when most collectors actually completed their sets from circulating change.  Seems to me that this set has numerous contrived "keys" arbitrarily included just to include most types.  Only one I do not see is the Franklin half.  Also, I don't believe many of these coins were ever hard to find from circulation or even to buy from a B&M during this era (1933 to maybe early 70's).  None of these coins are remotely difficult to buy in the internet era.  Lastly, I wouldn't include any coin not made for circulation, such as the 70-D half and 1998 SP half.

thanks for all this.  I was trying to decide if I wanted an example from each type.  I am leaning the way you not to include just for the sake.  I will review each of your things different than mine to see if i would like to keep as is or us your opinion

[World Colonial]

13 hours ago, Davids5104 said:

thanks for all this.  I was trying to decide if I wanted an example from each type.  I am leaning the way you not to include just for the sake.  I will review each of your things different than mine to see if i would like to keep as is or us your opinion

I looked at the 1895-O dime and 1897-S quarter.  I wasn't aware of it but they are equal as keys to the Barber nickels.

Also, it may not matter to you but seems to me that the set you propose to build will result in a wide variation in quality where many of the coins won't be particularly marketable when you go to sell it later.  Most (if not all) of these coins are overpriced for the relative merits and aren't competitive versus comparably priced alternatives, even within US coinage.

This relative over valuation has lasted a long time, sometimes from inception.  However, for the coins where I have checked the long term price history (admittedly only a fraction of this list), the value loss is noticeable though the change has been slow or very slow.  Personally, I expect the lower circulated grades of the most expensive "keys" to perform worst financially.  Examples include the 16-D Mercury in AG-3 or G-4 and the 1877 IHC in the lowest circulated grades.  For the 1877 IHC, I also understand it is subject to persistent over grading by the TPG versus other non-key dates in the series.

[Just Bob]

I would consider the '82 no P Roosevelt and the 3-legged Buff varieties.

I like your idea, though.

[Davids5104]

 

9 hours ago, World Colonial said:

Also, it may not matter to you but seems to me that the set you propose to build will result in a wide variation in quality where many of the coins won't be particularly marketable when you go to sell it later.  Most (if not all) of these coins are overpriced for the relative merits and aren't competitive versus comparably priced alternatives, even within US coinage.

This relative over valuation has lasted a long time, sometimes from inception.  However, for the coins where I have checked the long term price history (admittedly only a fraction of this list), the value loss is noticeable though the change has been slow or very slow.  Personally, I expect the lower circulated grades of the most expensive "keys" to perform worst financially.  Examples include the 16-D Mercury in AG-3 or G-4 and the 1877 IHC in the lowest circulated grades.  For the 1877 IHC, I also understand it is subject to persistent over grading by the TPG versus other non-key dates in the series.

This is the part I am struggling with now.  I think with the set creation. I can add or subtract a few coins to get it where I want it.  I need to figure out how to keep the keys, key for all conditions, not key in Red or in MS, or tough to find in circulated.  Of course the "tough to find" with the internet is a phrase that I have to work through.  I get the feeling I need to be more discerning on what a key date is as it pertains to this potential set.  I want to generate the best chance possible that my key dates maintain value at worst, unsure if I have the coin knowledge skills to accomplish.  I am also unsure if I am proud to have a 500 dollar 16D hanging out in G4/6.  So, maybe I need to drop the coins that are more than $500 in grades less than VF12 or something.

[World Colonial]

31 minutes ago, Davids5104 said:

 

This is the part I am struggling with now.  I think with the set creation. I can add or subtract a few coins to get it where I want it.  I need to figure out how to keep the keys, key for all conditions, not key in Red or in MS, or tough to find in circulated.  Of course the "tough to find" with the internet is a phrase that I have to work through.  I get the feeling I need to be more discerning on what a key date is as it pertains to this potential set.  I want to generate the best chance possible that my key dates maintain value at worst, unsure if I have the coin knowledge skills to accomplish.  I am also unsure if I am proud to have a 500 dollar 16D hanging out in G4/6.  So, maybe I need to drop the coins that are more than $500 in grades less than VF12 or something.

The last time I checked On Heritage, a 16-D dime in G-4 cost about $700.  You are going to find that quite a few of these coins run in the same price range in VF-12 or lower:  1877 IHC, 1886 and 1912-S Barber Nickels, 1909-S VDB cent at minimum.  None of these coins are particularly attractive in low circulated grades.  Of course, "attractive" is a relative term but it's evident by the obsession (which is exactly what it is) the highest TPG (eligible) grades that this is exactly how US collectors generally think now or are trending towards later.

I have checked the 1921 and 1921-D dimes in the past.  Both are available in the range of $500 in XF-40 or XF-45.  It's a much better looking grade but I don't think it's perceived as much of a key coin as it was in the past; could be wrong about that but just my impression. 

But I would still be inclined to buy a much higher quality though lower status key Mercury than a 16-D in AG-3 or G-4.  These grades for any other date in the series are viewed as "dreck" and that's exactly where I believe the perception of the 16-D is heading once the older collectors who likely mostly own it in lower grades now pass on.  They grew up with an inflated perception of this coin prior to the internet era when it was viewed as "rare" which isn't going to last.  This coin has simultaneously appreciated in the last 50 years adjusted for purchasing power while still being left in the dust by other coins which were worth less or a lot less in 1965.

[Six Mile Rick]

I am going to have to side with World Colonial.

David,

By the time you do get around say --70% of the wanted set built you will have a lot of LOW grade coins that cost you more than you will ever see in a return. There are just too many series that you don't have connections for.

 Hooking up with friends that collect what you like will benefit you greatly on cost of your collection. Pick a series and get to know everyone from the submitter, dealers, and buyers. It's the best way to get the keys at a great price. The friendships you make are priceless!! 

[World Colonial]

11 hours ago, Six Mile Rick said:

I am going to have to side with World Colonial.

David,

By the time you do get around say --70% of the wanted set built you will have a lot of LOW grade coins that cost you more than you will ever see in a return. There are just too many series that you don't have connections for.

 Hooking up with friends that collect what you like will benefit you greatly on cost of your collection. Pick a series and get to know everyone from the submitter, dealers, and buyers. It's the best way to get the keys at a great price. The friendships you make are priceless!! 

I believe the option is fine...as long as anyone contemplating it doesn't mind potentially taking a big financial haircut when selling it.  Problem is, I don't believe hardly anyone will be satisfied with the likely financial outcome.  I would only choose it by treating it as an alternative consumption expense.

My views on the future price prospects for coins generally are "negative" by the standards of practically every other forum reader but even if I am mostly wrong, I still believe the most widely collected US "keys" aren't going to perform well.  The coins are disproportionately expensive for the merits (regardless of the quality), are either common or certainly not remotely scarce and most coins in (low) circulated grades are losing collector appeal.  This isn't exactly a favorable financial combination.

I believe choosing a series and buying better quality coins is a better financial proposition but I suspect your experience isn't representative.  I have only seen you comment on US moderns and mostly in the highest grades.  This gives you the opportunity to "cherry pick" quality coins for face value or (very) low premiums.  That's not going to be anywhere near as likely when collecting a US "classic" series.

[Six Mile Rick]

Colonial,

 The classics are fun as I assume the old foreign coins are fun as well. I did a classic collection in the 80's and 90's.  The outcome in sale time around 2010 was an eye opener. Since 2010 I have been purchasing and selling other NGC collectors sets. Most older rare coins are already graded with their high cost as such. To build a older date set today comes with a premium on the graded coins and usually the raw are just bagged coins from the 90's that didn't get slabbed. I don't see the older date coins being a high market in the future as I see more and more younger collectors starting a set of coins they grew up with more than historical dates.

 I believe the moderns of today will trump our beloved past date collections in the future and my sales of moderns seem to push me in that direction. I add to sets as I sell so actually the pre 1900 coins are non-existent as they slowly trickle from my sales collection with not much or any profit. Modern dimes and nickels sold in the last year 1970's dates ---- for HIGH DOLLARS!!! That is where I am going to put my extra submission fees costs.

In my opinion --- If David is going to do a key date set there should not be a price factor involved. Getting the best grades will get the best returns in the future. Anything less than the best is just common for any key and will lose value.

 

Later---Rick

[World Colonial]

11 hours ago, Six Mile Rick said:

In my opinion --- If David is going to do a key date set there should not be a price factor involved. Getting the best grades will get the best returns in the future. Anything less than the best is just common for any key and will lose value.

 

Later---Rick

I can agree with this comment, up to a price point where the variance between grades is "material".  I still think these coins will be money losers but better (proportionately) than in low circulated grades.

[Mohawk]

Interesting conversation World Colonial and Rick and I think I have some things to add

David can certainly collect what he wants, and if he's just pursuing this venture for fun and personal satisfaction, I feel that it will give you that David.  However, the prospects of a financial downside stated by World Colonial and Rick are absolutely true in my experience.  Also in my experience, the market for Classic US material is on a downward slope currently, the key dates especially so.  Many collectors of all ages are moving into moderns and classic world material more and more as they have been fed up with a Classic US coin market that has been largely overpriced for decades.  Also, and I've talked about this one before, the way younger collectors are pursuing the hobby is changing.  In addition to preferring moderns over classics in both US and World, younger collectors are largely doing one of three things: collecting by type, collecting thematically or they are building collections by other frameworks of their own making.  Series collecting is all but dead among younger collectors, and this does not bode well for key dates in the future.  Most younger collectors I know would handle adding, let's say a Barber Quarter, to their Type or Thematic collection in the following way.  They would completely discount the key dates as they are largely overpriced and are only readily affordable in low grade.  They would then locate a gorgeous AU or MS of a more common date.  In this scenario, an MS 63 1916-D Barber Quarter has much more demand and a better future outlook than an AG or G 1901-S Barber Quarter as very few people who collect outside of a series construct would desire such a coin and series collecting is declining. 

What series collecting I see happening, and my collecting experiences and sales experiences back me up on this, is happening in moderns.  It's much more satisfying to look at your PF 70 1981-S Type 2 Anthony Dollar than your AG-3 1916 Standing Liberty Quarter every time you look over your coins and many collectors are moving to this mindset.  Registry collecting has furthered this trend, with collectors wanting the best.  This is much easier with moderns as you can get truly perfect coins, which one cannot do with classics.  So, I'd say if current trends continue, one will eventually be better off with a 1995-W Silver Eagle than a 1893-S Morgan Dollar across all grades.

There is still demand for US classics, but increasingly this demand is reflecting type and thematic demand rather than series demand and this does hurt the keys.  For example, I'm planning a Custom Set project with some classics ( I don't want to give it away before I get the set started and posted up), but I can say that none of the coins in the set would classify as keys.  But I wouldn't consider using keys of the same types for the set as they simply would not work for what I want to accomplish with the project.  For me, and many other thematic collectors, the keys wouldn't work for us in any circumstance and there is no demand for them among this community of collectors.  Also, these key dates do not hold the magic for younger collectors that they do for collectors of an earlier generation, who started with the Red Book, Whitman Folders and had a chance of finding some of these keys in circulation.  Most of us did not start that way as that era was over before we became involved in the hobby.  Because of this, we started differently and those classic keys were never really "real" to us in the way they would have been to a collector starting before 1964.  They were abstract pieces, relics of an earlier time, that we only knew from coin shop cases with high prices attached to them in even the ugliest of condition.  There was no magic to them for many of us.  They were just expensive and often less interesting than more common dates of the same type in nicer condition.  And as time has gone on, this has remained the same. 

So, in closing, if this Custom Set idea will make you happy and you will enjoy it David, then go for it.  But if the financial side is of importance to you, then I'd rethink it.  Ultimately, it's up to you and only you know what you desire to achieve with your collection, but I feel that World Colonial and Rick have both given you some excellent insight and I hope that I have too.

~Tom

 

[Six Mile Rick]

Wow Tom, what a spill!!! 

I enjoyed the read. We both help collectors and know where coins sit today as future prospects.

Keep passing those great type I and type II proofs out bro. 

[World Colonial]

I agree with Tom's comments but based upon our prior post exchanges and the available data, it's evident that the current preference among moderns is mostly for world NCLT first and second among US moderns, for "grade rarities", toned coins, full strikes and errors - specialization.

Also, I'd be interested to know which world moderns are preferred by younger collectors over the preceding "classics" because I don't believe that this buying reflects an actual preference; only that world NCLT are more "popular" in the sense that the coins are available and more affordable.  I see no evidence that (as an example only) Mexican NCLT is preferred over Cap & Ray 8R, Pillar dollars and cobs. Most collectors (younger or otherwise) cannot afford these "classic" coins in better grades and there are not enough of these coins anyway even if they could.  So yes, collectors (younger and otherwise) are buying NCLT over the coins I described in low(er) grades but this isn't usually evidence that they like them more than these "classic" series, only to the extent where they can afford both but buy the "modern" anyway.

What I described in my last paragraph, it's exactly the same for US coinage generically.  US collector in the aggregate don't actually prefer the most widely collected US classic series, despite the "popularity"  We can know this by how they spend their money as is evident from the Heritage archives which is certainly representative for most US coins.

Lastly for the most popular classic "key" dates, when I have the time, I am going to perform a similar analysis to the one I posted previously for some of the Lincoln cents over the last 50 years: 1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1926-S, 1931-S and 1955 DDO.  Of these, the only clear winner was the 1955 DDO.  The others, either not at all or only under (very) favorable assumptions.

[World Colonial]

5 hours ago, Mohawk said:

Registry collecting has furthered this trend, with collectors wanting the best.  This is much easier with moderns as you can get truly perfect coins, which one cannot do with classics.  So, I'd say if current trends continue, one will eventually be better off with a 1995-W Silver Eagle than a 1893-S Morgan Dollar across all grades.

 

The 1995-W has the best claim as a post 1964 US "key" date.  It's also one of the most overpriced coins on the planet based upon it's availability and numismatic credentials.  So though I agree with you otherwise, I don't see this coin holding it's value either.  Ultimately, I expect it to either go nowhere or be a big proportional financial loser.