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Can Health of Hobby be Compared to Mint Sets Sold?

7 posts in this topic

A few weeks ago I was thinking to myself, and probably talking aloud too :#; about what kind of indicators that could be developed to track the health of our hobby? I initially thought maybe proof set sales per year compared to population; but, realized the latter '90's up to present created too much of a mess with proof sub sets such as silver sets, silver quarter sets, dollar sets, clad sets, etc. So, I settled on mint sets as there's not too much out of the ordinary with these sets.

Below is data of year, population, number of mint sets sold, and mint sets / population to render a ratio. What other data could be extrapolated into ratios, graphs, charts, etc., that could reveal the true health of our hobby?

I think a member ATS had an interesting post about, "Do a Million Americans own at least one slabbed coin"? Maybe an interesting data point would be if it's broken down per year along with how many coins slabbed compared to population.

This isn't rocket science- whatever you think is a good indicator; please share. The enjoyment I have with the hobby is something I want to pass on, and knowing the health of our hobby is important to me, and I'm sure it is for you too! I think all of us want someone appreciating our spoils when we're growing daisies. o:)

Year………U.S Population…………..Mint Sets Sold………….Sets Sold / Per Population: Ratio
1955……….170,796,378……………………49,656……………………………  …03
1960……….186,176,524………………….260,485……………………….…… ....14
1965……….199,403,532……………….2,360,000………………………... ..…..1.18 
1970……….209,485,807……………….2,038,134………………………… ....…..97
1975……….218,963,561……………….1,921,488……………………....…… …..88
1980……….229,588,208……………….2,526,000……………………......……..1.10
1985……….240,691,557……………….1,710,571……………………......…….....71
1990……….252,847,810……………….1,809,184……………………….....……..72
1995……….266,275,528……………….1,038,787……………………….....…… .39
2000……….282,895,741……………….1,490,160…………………….....……… .53
2005……….296,139,635……………….1,160,000………………….....………… .39
2010……….309,876,170………………….583,397……………………...………...19
2015……….321,773,631………………….314,048……………………....……… .10

Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/
http://www.coinnews.net/2017/01/06/2015-proof-set-2015-mint-set-and-2015-silver-proof-
set-mark-mintage-lows/ 
Yeoman, R.S., & Bressett, K. A Guide Book of United States Coins 2017. Atlanta: Whitman
Publishing, 2016. Print.

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I don't think so. I have never been a big mint set fan. I have owned them in the past, including a near complete date run of the double mint sets from the 1950s, and they never held my interest. I ended up selling almost all of them. During the '70s and especially the 1980s, the quality of the coins in the mint sets hit rock bottom. You could find better coins at the bank than what the mint called "mint state" in the yearly sets it sold.

I do have a run of Proof sets from 1942 to date, and I am thinking about working on the group from 1936 to '41. Those set interest me far more.

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This is a topic which has come up numerous times from different angles and its hard to quantify.

Using traditional measures such as the sale of mint or proof sets, there is no doubt the "footprint" of the hobby is nowhere near what it used to be.  I started collecting in 1975 at age 10 and from what I have read, it had already declined substantially from the 1960's.  Other indicators that would have been useful include:  annual Red Book sales (also included in recent posts on PGCS), ANA membership, subscription levels of coin magazines, number of B&M dealers and maybe sales of folders/albums. 

The difference between today (or the recent past) and 1975 or the 1960's is that no one needs the products or services I listed to participate in the hobby.  Back then, without them, the typical collector would have been operating "in the dark" (like I was) unless you had contact with (knowledgeable) collectors or a good dealer.

The sales and membership level of the products and services I listed is representative of the casual or less advanced collector.  Or with mint and proof sets, the non-collector since I don't believe most of these buyers were (or are) real collectors anyway.  The decline in proof set sales I believe is substantially (if not entirely) the result of buying other gifts such as video games.  There was also speculation in proof sets sometime before 1965 which also inflated the mintages.  Today, speculation is limited to getting these coins in plastic with the highest grade but to my knowledge nothing more.

As for the number of people owning a TPG coin, I read that thread but don't see anything meaningful in that indicator if it's true that a substantial number of non-collectors own one or more.  Outside of bullion and NCLT which I believe are disproportionately owned by speculators, I don't believe there are anywhere near one million collectors owning a graded coin.

These posts also mentioned that maybe the number is one million worldwide.  Outside of NCLT buyers especially in China, I don't see it either.  Foreign collectors may buy graded coins because a much higher proportion of the better coins are already in plastic, since US buyers have an outsized influence.  But though I have noticed marginal changes, it's evident that most foreign collectors still don't like it.

The PCGS thread also used the Heritage registered user base as an indicator.  To the extent it is an accurate one, it's still lopsidedly tilted toward US buyers because the archives list almost 10 times as many US coin sales as all others combined.  Contrary to what anyone else believes, I'd estimate the number of foreign buyers (outside of expats) buying any US coin above a nominal value (like maybe $300) a "rounding error".

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Mints have not held their value historically, and I think many collectors are aware of this. Many sets are traded at or near face value; it's not worth paying the exorbitant prices for these sets.

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On 6/13/2017 at 8:10 AM, World Colonial said:

This is a topic which has come up numerous times from different angles and its hard to quantify.

Using traditional measures such as the sale of mint or proof sets, there is no doubt the "footprint" of the hobby is nowhere near what it used to be.  I started collecting in 1975 at age 10 and from what I have read, it had already declined substantially from the 1960's.  Other indicators that would have been useful include:  annual Red Book sales (also included in recent posts on PGCS), ANA membership, subscription levels of coin magazines, number of B&M dealers and maybe sales of folders/albums. 

The difference between today (or the recent past) and 1975 or the 1960's is that no one needs the products or services I listed to participate in the hobby.  Back then, without them, the typical collector would have been operating "in the dark" (like I was) unless you had contact with (knowledgeable) collectors or a good dealer.

The sales and membership level of the products and services I listed is representative of the casual or less advanced collector.  Or with mint and proof sets, the non-collector since I don't believe most of these buyers were (or are) real collectors anyway.  The decline in proof set sales I believe is substantially (if not entirely) the result of buying other gifts such as video games.  There was also speculation in proof sets sometime before 1965 which also inflated the mintages.  Today, speculation is limited to getting these coins in plastic with the highest grade but to my knowledge nothing more.

As for the number of people owning a TPG coin, I read that thread but don't see anything meaningful in that indicator if it's true that a substantial number of non-collectors own one or more.  Outside of bullion and NCLT which I believe are disproportionately owned by speculators, I don't believe there are anywhere near one million collectors owning a graded coin.

These posts also mentioned that maybe the number is one million worldwide.  Outside of NCLT buyers especially in China, I don't see it either.  Foreign collectors may buy graded coins because a much higher proportion of the better coins are already in plastic, since US buyers have an outsized influence.  But though I have noticed marginal changes, it's evident that most foreign collectors still don't like it.

The PCGS thread also used the Heritage registered user base as an indicator.  To the extent it is an accurate one, it's still lopsidedly tilted toward US buyers because the archives list almost 10 times as many US coin sales as all others combined.  Contrary to what anyone else believes, I'd estimate the number of foreign buyers (outside of expats) buying any US coin above a nominal value (like maybe $300) a "rounding error".

Excellent viewpoint World Colonial, along with your other considerations about the "health of hobby."  Thanks all for additional thoughts.  It seems that there was a similar consensus ATS about mint set sales compared to population.  In summary, "health of hobby compared to mint sets sold," appears not to be a good indicator as most dedicated collectors do not purchase mint sets through the US mint, but tend to purchase them cheaper on aftermarket.  So, as you and others have pointed out- most purchasers are probably casual collectors, or, consumers just looking to buy a gift for grand kids, grads, loved ones, etc.  

Perhaps a more important question; to what degree is the health of the hobby dependent on these seeds sown through gifts by individuals who don't necessarily collect themselves; but, just want to buy something special for another individual.  It would be interesting to know how many individuals purchase product from the US mint that are not collectors but just individuals looking for gifts for others.  

This may cut out an important demographic:   https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-announces-plans-to-discontinue-mail-orders       

 

       

 

 

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33 minutes ago, PocketArt said:

Perhaps a more important question; to what degree is the health of the hobby dependent on these seeds sown through gifts by individuals who don't necessarily collect themselves; but, just want to buy something special for another individual.  It would be interesting to know how many individuals purchase product from the US mint that are not collectors but just individuals looking for gifts for others.  

This may cut out an important demographic:   https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-announces-plans-to-discontinue-mail-orders       

 

       

 

 

I couldn't open your link, so I can't comment on it.

I believe that a majority of US Mint sales of mint and proof sets have always been to casual collectors, most of whom quit collecting for good but keep the sets indefinitely.  A former boss of mine was one.  He had a run of proof sets from the late 60's to maybe the early 80's.  He was disgusted when he found out he had been wasting his money on safe deposit box fees for coins which are worth so little.  Modern commemoratives and the proof ASE are also, with the distinction that the latter are also bought for financial reasons since these coins are more expensive.  The mintages for all of these coins exceed the collector base who really want them by a lopsided proportion, in most instances.

The difference between "then" (1980 going by your data but particularly up to the late 60's) and recently is that (prospective) collectors don't need to collect out of circulation or buy from the US Mint, at all. 

Are many future collectors introduced to the hobby through these coins?  I presume they are but the proportion of younger collectors (arbitrarily under 30) who own recent mint or proof sets has never been lower than it is now.  And to the extent they own these coins, not because they bought them either, whether from the US Mint or in the secondary market.

The reason is obvious.  In the internet age with at least 250,000 coins from in the vicinity of 10,000 series to choose from, they aren't remotely compelling or competitive enough to compete on their merits.

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