Time For A 2015 Silver Eagle Die Study?

[UFO]

I have to confess on the front end, I do have a dog in this fight!  In 2015, to hedge my investment risk, I wanted to own some precious metals and decided to buy silver.  In my rookie eagerness and because, quite frankly, I didn't trust the U.S. Mint to be able to count right, I cut the straps on all 3 of my delivered, green monster boxes to do a visual inspection.  The count was correct (obviously) and move forward to 2017 where I discover the Philadelphia flap over the 79,640 Eagles minted there and lo and behold,  all my boxes have the 5 digit serial numbers beginning with a 1.  GREAT!  I told the wife to forever more keep scissors away from Jr. here!  Anyway, just before all my hope was lost, I read the NGC news story on the events that led up to the F.O.I.A. letters sent by NGC and Coin World and it seems there is another way out for poor slobs like me with strapless, green monster boxes.  A die study.  This whole thing originated when NGC's coin graders were doing their MS grades on 2015 Silver Eagles and were noticing differences in certain coins.  From the article..."Owing to minor variations in box appearance and coin quality, NGC graders long suspected that multiple Mints continued to be involved in the production of Silver Eagles."  Variations can be quantified to set up concrete, ironclad parameters for use in distinguishing the mint of origin.  This is what a die study would do.  This could be a win/win for NGC and for their customers.   There were right at $47 million Silver Eagles minted in 2015. Think of the thousands of potential new customers NGC could cultivate as owners of 2015 Eagles who would have never considered having a coin graded step up to the plate, for a small fee, to see if they have one of the home run MS69 or MS70's from Philly!   I have 3 unsealed green monster boxes they can use for the die study.  

UFO

(Special thanks to Paul Gilkes at Coin World)        

[numisport]

Die studies were difficult even when lets say in 1950 maybe there were 10 die pairs for proof Franklin half dollars. Imagine how many dies were used to mint 47 million large coins ! When would ends justify the means ?

[UFO]

Hi numis.  All I know is something about the 1 or 2 dies or the process they used or the specific machines for the Philadelphia run produced a different enough coin to clue the NGC graders that something was up.  That means that an expert can visually tell whether an Eagle was produced in Philly or West Point.  Standardize that, advertise that and people will beat a path to NGC's door to see if they hold a winning lottery ticket. And not just the usual collector crowd.  People like me who are basically precious metal investors and have never even considered becoming numismatics. This could be a way to introduce a whole new, massive audience to collecting.  Would it really be expensive to do this?  I dunno...NGC may have already done most of the leg work in collecting data prior to writing the F.O.I.A. letter.    

[RWB]

And how might all this be verified....?

Silver eagle dies are all automatically deburred, except for the 5-oz things that are too big to fit the equipment and are cleaned up manually by one of the engravers.

Thousands of dies per year, all made at Philadelphia....hmmm. Sounds like a futile project.

[UFO]

Good question for NGC.  Also, it's fairly likely that I've outlined the wrong plan of attack to accomplish the objective here.  I definitively learned how to spell the word numismatic 3 weeks ago!  NGC/PCGS/ANACS/ICG might be able to develop a more comprehensive (P) grading methodology without ever having to lay a finger on a die.   RWB, I'm a rookie here trying to learn the ropes and like I said in the OP,  I do have a vested interest in someone  seeing the same opportunity here that I do.  I came to the NGC site 1st because they started the whole thing with that F.O.I.A request.  I get it that initially all the grading services had to be VERY conservative, only offering the (P) designation to coins that came from sealed boxes that fit the 5 digit parameter.   However, smart people figured this anomaly out...I don't think they're going to let it end with grading a few dozen sealed, green monster boxes and just calling it a day.  Not when there's a multi-million coin potential universe of paying customers lining up.  Not to mention whichever grading service defines the parameters for the actual test first gets to claim bragging rights and a BIG head start over the competition!  NGC already knows how to tell the difference.  If they didn't they never would have written that letter to the Treasury.  

https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/5888/

[World Colonial]

You should read the post on this topic on the PCGS Message Boards.  I don't post there but it was discussed more extensively than here.

According to the comments there, there is no mintmark identifier which is how collectors traditionally distinguish between mints.  From a financial standpoint, I don't see that what you are describing is going to go anywhere because it isn't anything that collectors (as opposed to financial buyers for speculation) will care about.

[RWB]

RE: " However, smart people figured this anomaly out...I don't think they're going to let it end with grading a few dozen sealed, green monster boxes and just calling it a day.  Not when there's a multi-million coin potential universe of paying customers lining up.  Not to mention whichever grading service defines the parameters for the actual test first gets to claim bragging rights and a BIG head start over the competition!  NGC already knows how to tell the difference.  If they didn't they never would have written that letter to the Treasury. "

Greedy, yes, but not evidence. Why not make it your task to learn the "differences" and then inform the rest of the collecting world? That would be useful.

[World Colonial]

3 minutes ago, RWB said:

RE: " However, smart people figured this anomaly out...I don't think they're going to let it end with grading a few dozen sealed, green monster boxes and just calling it a day.  Not when there's a multi-million coin potential universe of paying customers lining up.  Not to mention whichever grading service defines the parameters for the actual test first gets to claim bragging rights and a BIG head start over the competition!  NGC already knows how to tell the difference.  If they didn't they never would have written that letter to the Treasury. "

Greedy, yes, but not evidence. Why not make it your task to learn the "differences" and then inform the rest of the collecting world? That would be useful.

This topic has little if anything to do with collectors or collecting.  From what I can see, it's being driven by one or more of the grading services to drive submissions.  In the past, this has been used successfully but the distinction is that it has done so by creating a perception of contrived scarcity: "70" grades, "+" grades, * designations, various labels and signatures...the list goes on.

Even with "only" 79,640, any noticeable financial premium is likely to be the result of label buying and presumably for the 70 grade, not 69's.  There are likely millions of ASE buyers but the visible evidence indicates that they are overwhelmingly "silver stackers", not actual collectors.  The comments by the OP indicates that he isn't a collector either because collectors don't buy monster boxes for their sets or leave the coins in the box since apparently, the difference is so minor that leaving it in the box is the easiest (if not only) way to identify the origin.  That's what speculators do.

As a guess, I'd say the real collector base for ASE numbers in the hundreds of thousands with most of them buying 69's for low premiums or ungraded.  Since there is no scale to ASE die variety collecting and no MM, aside from hoarding by speculators, any financial potential is likely to be the result of label buying to maintain a "complete" registry set.

[WoodenJefferson]

No harm in chasing a windfall, if indeed it is a windfall and not hype.

[BillJones]

All of this makes me happy that I am not interested in collecting American Silver Eagles. Paying high prices for some minor differences on a modern coin is not fun so far as I'm concerned.

[World Colonial]

58 minutes ago, WoodenJefferson said:

No harm in chasing a windfall, if indeed it is a windfall and not hype.

Agreed, but I suspect it is predominantly hype.  If I wrong, I'll find out, one way or the other.

[numisport]

9 minutes ago, BillJones said:

All of this makes me happy that I am not interested in collecting American Silver Eagles. Paying high prices for some minor differences on a modern coin is not fun so far as I'm concerned.

I couldn't have said that better Bill !

[UFO]

On 6/10/2017 at 7:57 PM, UFO said:

RWB said "Why not make it your task to learn the "differences" and then inform the rest of the collecting world?"

Why do you think I'm here?

[Dixon0913]

On ‎6‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 10:11 AM, UFO said:

Hi numis.  All I know is something about the 1 or 2 dies or the process they used or the specific machines for the Philadelphia run produced a different enough coin to clue the NGC graders that something was up.  That means that an expert can visually tell whether an Eagle was produced in Philly or West Point.  Standardize that, advertise that and people will beat a path to NGC's door to see if they hold a winning lottery ticket. And not just the usual collector crowd.  People like me who are basically precious metal investors and have never even considered becoming numismatics. This could be a way to introduce a whole new, massive audience to collecting.  Would it really be expensive to do this?  I dunno...NGC may have already done most of the leg work in collecting data prior to writing the F.O.I.A. letter.    

Philadelphia MINT can pick out coins from W.P. do U not THINK? BATE & SWITCH 98% all bought W.P.,if NGC did a top JOB I would know what MONSTER BOX I GOT COINS FROM!

[Dixon0913]

NGC if effective would have picture of every MONSTER BOX that every coins come from what MINTS CLUE

[Dixon0913]

On ‎6‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 9:34 AM, numisport said:

Die studies were difficult even when lets say in 1950 maybe there were 10 die pairs for proof Franklin half dollars. Imagine how many dies were used to mint 47 million large coins ! When would ends justify the means ?

take a picture of every NEW DIES put them into a motion picture if pure it will not move, it would be cool to see the type of movement, if you need to sort them,

[numisport]

1 minute ago, Dixon0913 said:

take a picture of every NEW DIES put them into a motion picture if pure it will not move, it would be cool to see the type of movement, if you need to sort them,

Given new mint technology huge numbers of dies would likely be identical or would appear so even under some magnification. I still don't see any real benefit for numismatists in this series

[World Colonial]

10 hours ago, numisport said:

Given new mint technology huge numbers of dies would likely be identical or would appear so even under some magnification. I still don't see any real benefit for numismatists in this series

There is no benefit, except to those who believe others should want to pay (large) premiums for the ASE they own so they can make a financial windfall.

Of the "most popular" series, there seems to be above average die variety collecting for Lincoln Cents and Morgan dollars.  However, I have never heard that anymore than a low or miniscule fraction of the collector base has any interest in it.  The others such as Mercury dimes, WLH, IHC and Buffalo nickels, almost non-existent from what I know.

Here are two questions for the posters advocating the significance of this minutia to consider:

If collectors don't care about die varieties for other series which present a much greater challenge to collect than ASE, why would they care about this one?

Why would anyone care about this contrived "rarity", considering that there must be hundreds if not thousands of die varieties for any (modern) coin with this mintage?  Are all of them supposed to be significant, or just this one?

[UFO]

I trade bonds for a living, mortgage backed securities to be more exact.  Fannie Maes...Ginnie Maes...Freddie Macs.  One thing I've learned over the years..."markets are never wrong".   They're a force of nature, in a way.  I don't have a clue why a "collector" would care about these (P) coins, but I do know that they do.  To the tune of MS70's having traded on eBay in the $4,000 range.  That's also where they're offered there now.  Someone's offering an ANACS MS70 (P) at $49,999.  No-one with a lick of smarts would buy that coin, but there are a lot of people who do crazy things.   

[BruceS]

Wasnt there a retraction from the mint stating they made a mistake in their FOIA release ? I've heard a lot of different info regarding the Philly minted ASEs.  From magic marker codes to WP straps on P minted coins.  What a mess. Especially the coin hacks on TV selling them for crazy money.  

That being said, if I had a MB of a potential Philly minted set, (that could be proven) I too would try my best to authenticate them. Good luck.

[UFO]

5 hours ago, BruceS said:

That being said, if I had a MB of a potential Philly minted set, (that could be proven) I too would try my best to authenticate them. Good luck.

Thank you Bruce, for understanding my motivation.  I have three monster boxes of potential Phillies!   

[World Colonial]

15 hours ago, UFO said:

I trade bonds for a living, mortgage backed securities to be more exact.  Fannie Maes...Ginnie Maes...Freddie Macs.  One thing I've learned over the years..."markets are never wrong".   They're a force of nature, in a way.  I don't have a clue why a "collector" would care about these (P) coins, but I do know that they do.  To the tune of MS70's having traded on eBay in the $4,000 range.  That's also where they're offered there now.  Someone's offering an ANACS MS70 (P) at $49,999.  No-one with a lick of smarts would buy that coin, but there are a lot of people who do crazy things.   

I understand your motivation, but it is apparent that you don't understand the motivation of collectors.

As I said in one of my prior posts, the 70 grades, "+" grades, * designations and labels are also marketing driven or contrived definitions of scarcity.  So yes, it is possible that this one will also be perceived similarly

Your best bet to succeed is for NGC and PCGS to add this imaginary "P" mint coin to the registry set.  If this happens, there are probably enough collectors who will add it to maintain a "complete" set.  But even if this occurs, you are only likely to make money with 70 grades and going by the population reports, the proportion apparently is much higher on the most recent dates versus earlier ones. 

79,460 may seem like a low number but you need to remember that all of them are essentially identical (as a 69 or 70).  This number isn't rare (or even scarce) and there aren't millions of collectors who are going to be competing for it either.  The actual number is much lower than you apparently believe because it's unlikely that most real ASE collectors will pay any noticeable premium for it.  Speculators may also buy it believing that collectors will and they may inflate the price, but if so, its likely to be temporary, just as it has been with prior US Mint releases.  One example is the 2014 gold Kennedy half.  This coin has a mintage of 75,000 (maybe somewhat less due to returns), its more distinctive than this ASE but there aren't anywhere near 75,000 real collectors (as opposed to financial buyers) for it either, though the much higher price doesn't make it a direct comparison.

[UFO]

Oh. I understand Colonial.  It may all be a moot point anyway, because the Mint is issuing a clarification at the end of June that may pull the plug on this thing for good.

http://mintnewsblog.com/mint-issues-statement-on-erroneous-branch-mint-information-on-ase-coins/

 

 

[coinman1794]

On 6/12/2017 at 10:54 AM, World Colonial said:

This topic has little if anything to do with collectors or collecting.  From what I can see, it's being driven by one or more of the grading services to drive submissions.  In the past, this has been used successfully but the distinction is that it has done so by creating a perception of contrived scarcity: "70" grades, "+" grades, * designations, various labels and signatures...the list goes on.

I would not bundle 70s, + grades, and * designations together with special labels, signatures, and the like; but your overall point is taken. At least those first three factors relate to the actual coin.

[coinman1794]

The distinction would likely be worth little premium if you can't readily identify it on your own. There would have to be some noticeable design variation between these two supposed minting that goes beyond the microscopic.