NGC U.S. Coin Price Guide to Gauge Your Coin Collection Worth
1 1

15 posts in this topic

1,126 posts

 

If you wanted to assess your coin collection's real value, and you wanted to use the NGC US Coin Price Guide as a metric, what would be the correction factor?

In other words, you use the price guide to tally up the total value of your coins, and then the actual prices that a dealer would pay you would be some fraction of that total value.

Let's say NGC suggests a coin value for a given grade is $100.  You offer the coin to a dealer, and the dealer says he can only pay you $$60 for the coin.

Therefore the correction factor would be, [CF] = 0.60  ($60/$100 = 0.60)

Each coin would sell individually; no bulk-sale discount for the dealer.  Forget eBay or Heritage, and ignore shipping costs, insurance, and taxes.  Dealer and you make good faith efforts to buy/sell.

And to make it even more relevant, you don't twist a dealer's arm to buy.  The dealer makes an offer, you counteroffer, the dealer makes a final offer, you accept.  (Maybe takes a couple of days at most.)

On average, what do you think the Correction Factor would be?

If you don't think there is a relevant answer to this question, then break it down specifically to coins you know and understand.  But still come up with a [CF] value that would be realistic.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14,787 posts

Every coin, every grade, every series, every seller, and every buyer would have a different correction factor. Even for the same date at the same grade there could be a spread from 0.4 to 25x the listed price guide. The question you ask is impossible to answer. 

Using a single guide to asses value is impossible. The only real way to do this is to evaluate a number of different guides, compare that to auction/sale prices realized, adjust for eye appeal and accuracy of grade on your specific coin, update based on real-time market conditions, and modify that for the tides and phase of the moon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
574 posts
20 minutes ago, physics-fan3.14 said:

Using a single guide to asses value is impossible. The only real way to do this is to evaluate a number of different guides, compare that to auction/sale prices realized, adjust for eye appeal and accuracy of grade on your specific coin, update based on real-time market conditions, and modify that for the tides and phase of the moon. 

+1........The only value I have found in their price guides is a general rule.  The price guides for US coins is what you want to sell them for not buy them for (yes there are exceptions). The world price guides are what you want to buy the coins for not sell them for.  2c

They are off by thousands of dollars on some world coins.  (thumbsu :roflmao:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,631 posts

Auction results minus 20-25% if you are trying to unload your collection en mass to a dealer. Guides mean nothing to me. Its what someone is willing to pay.

I create lists on Amazon of auction results to keep track of them and of course Heritage has a great database of auction results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,126 posts

TonerGuy, at least you answered the question… to some extent.  Extrapolating what you said, it seems you're saying [CF] = 0.45 - 0.40.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,487 posts

I have to agree with P-F......There is no set factor.  You may be able to determine that Lincoln cents routinely bring 62 percent of this guide.  Then you look at state quarters and they will only bring 31 percent. There really is no such thing as a comprehensive US coin value guide. If there were, dealers would be able to run advertisements stating that they will purchase any US coin at 23 percent of current Redbook value, or whatever guide.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,126 posts

Isn't the whole idea of a price guide that it is meant to take into account the ups and downs of various coins?

If it doesn't reflect reality at all, then why put so much effort into it, why tout it as a useful tool? (even though there is a disclaimer)

Do you think there is a linear correlation between the NGC US Coin Price Guide and NumisMedia FMV?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
368 posts
On 4/14/2017 at 1:13 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

Isn't the whole idea of a price guide that it is meant to take into account the ups and downs of various coins?

If it doesn't reflect reality at all, then why put so much effort into it, why tout it as a useful tool? (even though there is a disclaimer)

Do you think there is a linear correlation between the NGC US Coin Price Guide and NumisMedia FMV?

because they have a business model to generate revenue.  If i was smart, I would love to create something people use and pay me for and have no real responsibility in the product.  there is no linear correlation by my account.  The price guides do not say anything about peoples interpretation of value added for toning, unattributed varieties, strike quality, etc.  They are just grade/date/MM.  There is also quality variability within the same grade. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24,957 posts

The price guide is simply that, a 'guide' to get you into the ball park. Individual coins must be hammered out between the buyer and the seller.  Estimates are simply that, 'estimated price' At the time of sale, it could go up or it could go down...that's why shrewd dealers keep their prices firm during small down turns, they know it will rebound, so why loose money over a cyclic trend. Course you have to be in a good position in order to do that, either your all in or all out.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,116 posts

Something else to keep in mind. One dealer may not need what you are selling and a different dealer may. They will pay more for product they know they can sell quickly. If they have a case full of what you are selling, they may not even make an offer. They have to turn the product to stay in business.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5,533 posts

Personally I don't even bother with the NGC price guide, as I find it laughably high in many areas.  I generally look at the PCGS price guide for BALLPARK RETAIL ideas of prices.  I agree with TonerGuy's comments that looking at auction prices is the closest you'll get to "REAL" retail prices.  Remember of course that the auction prices include the commission too.

One other clear discrepancy between price guide and reality, is if you have high quality toned coins for sale.  Almost invariably these will sell for significantly more that the "Official" price guide.  The last one I sold (to a dealer roughly a year ago), I sold for between 4 and 5 times the price guide, and obviously he was going to try and sell it for a profit.  Note, we are talking high quality toning here.  There are PLENTY of coins that are toned with nice toning, but only a small fraction of coins out there are really high quality toners.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,631 posts
9 hours ago, SkyMan said:

Personally I don't even bother with the NGC price guide, as I find it laughably high in many areas.  I generally look at the PCGS price guide for BALLPARK RETAIL ideas of prices.  I agree with TonerGuy's comments that looking at auction prices is the closest you'll get to "REAL" retail prices.  Remember of course that the auction prices include the commission too.

One other clear discrepancy between price guide and reality, is if you have high quality toned coins for sale.  Almost invariably these will sell for significantly more that the "Official" price guide.  The last one I sold (to a dealer roughly a year ago), I sold for between 4 and 5 times the price guide, and obviously he was going to try and sell it for a profit.  Note, we are talking high quality toning here.  There are PLENTY of coins that are toned with nice toning, but only a small fraction of coins out there are really high quality toners.

Trying to figure out prices on toners is almost impossible. This is almost completely subjective. The toners that Skyman is talking about cannot be reasonable priced. High quality toners are best to cosigned to an auction to realize the best prices. Even if you placed a 2 or 3x guide on those coins you might end up be well short of the true value as Skyman notes above. I would love to think that some of my toners are 4-5x guide but its difficult to imagine a lot of people paying that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14,787 posts

There isn't a single price guide out there that has any inkling of what a PL is worth. Sure, they've got some Morgans in there, but nothing else. 

This is particularly entertaining on my Registry set, where the values are included (except the PLs.... they're left blank). The Registry says my set is worth $6.9k. 

Hahahahahahahaa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 posts

One of the few real uses of price guides is the relative value between issues.  For example, if an 1840 quarter was valued at X and and 1840-O quarter at Y, the relationship between them would be useful when buying or selling one or the other.  Otherwise, within each issue it's sooooo subjective.  Usually the price guides, all of them, are way over market, but there are cases where a coin that is superior to most of those available for one reason or another, or in cases where demand is way higher than supply - that the guides are way off to the down side.  But in relative terms, issue to issue, they seem to be more accurate than not.  For what that's worth.

DUK

Edited by Fiddlehead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
114 posts
On ‎4‎/‎17‎/‎2017 at 8:22 AM, TonerGuy said:

Trying to figure out prices on toners is almost impossible. This is almost completely subjective. The toners that Skyman is talking about cannot be reasonable priced. High quality toners are best to cosigned to an auction to realize the best prices. Even if you placed a 2 or 3x guide on those coins you might end up be well short of the true value as Skyman notes above. I would love to think that some of my toners are 4-5x guide but its difficult to imagine a lot of people paying that.

I know what your saying'but believe me-  There are collectors out there' if they want that certain coin bad enough, they will pay moon money to get it.  That's regardless if it's toned or not.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
1 1