Inevitable?

[TonerGuy]

Im kinda shocked this coin went over $2000. Im not a WLH guy but I dont see how this coin goes 67 or 67+ in a PCGS slab. Maybe a 66+ but I still say the $$$ between 66 and 67 is too great when the coin isnt all there.

I hope someone keeps their eye out to see if it comes back up for sale in a PCGS slab. It will be interesting.

[coinman_23885]

2 hours ago, Afterword said:

I still find it difficult to believe a knowledgeable collector could fail to consider the possibility of a grade bump when determining how much they are willing to bid. Would you have failed to do so? 

 

In purchasing toned coins, I consider everything including date, grade, absolute rarity of the issue, difficulty of color for the date, color bump potential, eye appeal, etc.

[coinman_23885]

24 minutes ago, TonerGuy said:

Im kinda shocked this coin went over $2000. Im not a WLH guy but I dont see how this coin goes 67 or 67+ in a PCGS slab. Maybe a 66+ but I still say the $$$ between 66 and 67 is too great when the coin isnt all there.

I hope someone keeps their eye out to see if it comes back up for sale in a PCGS slab. It will be interesting.

 

Keep a look-out for the True Views for 1940-S WLH.  If this coin is ever crossed to PCGS, the submitter will likely have it True Viewed.

[physics-fan3.14]

8 hours ago, Afterword said:

 a knowledgeable collector

You are making an assumption about the buyer which may or may not be true. 

[WoodenJefferson]

No way this Walker gets into a 67 holder with either service. 66 maybe on a good day and then at break even with the hammer price of $2090. I wish that was my coin that I paid $550 for and got it into a NGC holder. Nice profit, but I'm a collector, not a profit minded flipper.

[ArtR1]

Regardless of the grade or holder Walkers with that kind of eye appeal don't show up very often.

[Afterword]

50 minutes ago, WoodenJefferson said:

66 maybe on a good day and then at break even with the hammer price of $2090.

So people pay extra for the toning at MS65 but not at MS66. Why is that?

 

1 hour ago, physics-fan3.14 said:

You are making an assumption about the buyer which may or may not be true. 

There was more than one person bidding the item up to that price. I find it unlikely they were all novice collectors. They knew enough to bid it up for the toning, but not for the potential grade bump?

[WoodenJefferson]

38 minutes ago, Afterword said:

So people pay extra for the toning at MS65 but not at MS66. Why is that?

 

There was more than one person bidding the item up to that price. I find it unlikely they were all novice collectors. They knew enough to bid it up for the toning, but not for the potential grade bump?

There is no way to view lots with this auction, so your buying off a pre-conceived notion that this coin will automatically up-grade by looking at an image. Maybe the person who lost out on this coin will bid more moon money for a 66 but $2100 for this coin is pushing at the ceiling.

[MarkFeld]

Just now, WoodenJefferson said:

There is no way to view lots with this auction, so your buying off a pre-conceived notion that this coin will automatically up-grade by looking at an image. Maybe the person who lost out on this coin will bid more moon money for a 66 but $2100 for this coin is pushing at the ceiling.

I believed that lots can be viewed in their office. 

Regardless, you guys can speculate all you want about why the coin brought the price that it did. But, we don't know if the coin was bought by a dealer or a collector or why the winning bidder (or under bidder) bid what he did.

[Afterword]

3 minutes ago, WoodenJefferson said:

There is no way to view lots with this auction, so your buying off a pre-conceived notion that this coin will automatically up-grade by looking at an image.

The fact that it could not be viewed in hand most likely kept the price realized at a lower level than it might have been otherwise. You can never know a coin will automatically up-grade. You might believe it will not up-grade and then a few mouths later see it in a holder with a higher grade. Or the other way around altogether. You might believe it will up-grade, but it does not. No one said it was not a gamble.

[WoodenJefferson]

yes

As to Mark, this is how we learn.

[Afterword]

39 minutes ago, MarkFeld said:

But, we don't know if the coin was bought by a dealer or a collector or why the winning bidder (or under bidder) bid what he did.

Apparently, it is an interesting topic, judging by the replies, regardless of that fact.

[TonerGuy]

1 hour ago, Afterword said:

So people pay extra for the toning at MS65 but not at MS66. Why is that?

 

I dont know the WLH market but I have studied the toned Peace $ market extensively for the past 10+ years. What I can tell you, which may or may not be obvious, is that the toning premium diminishes significantly with higher graded coins. Sure people will pay 10-20x toning premium on a common date MS64 1922 toned Peace $. But they arent going to pay even a 3-4x toning premium on a 1934-S MS64 or a 1922 MS67 Peace $. I usually see, at most, a .5 to 1x premium on the highest graded coins, if any premium.

Why? Because no one wants to be buried in a coin. And when you start paying more than .5-1x premium on a high grade coin you need a color bump to get yourself out of the coin with a profit and as we all know thats not always going to happen. Or you need to find 2 people that love it more that you did, which isnt always going to happen either.

If this coin gets into an MS66 at PCGS I see it being maxed out already, but hey I hope Im wrong for the buyer's sake. Would someone go $2500 on a MS66 ?

[Afterword]

https://coins.ha.com/itm/peace-dollars/silver-and-related-dollars/1923-d-1-ms66-pcgs/a/1207-3872.s?ic4=ListView-Thumbnail-071515

I think it would depend on the toning. The Walking Liberty in question, I believe to be exceptional. I would be surprised if it did not receive a significate premium.

[coinman_23885]

50 minutes ago, TonerGuy said:

If this coin gets into an MS66 at PCGS I see it being maxed out already, but hey I hope Im wrong for the buyer's sake. Would someone go $2500 on a MS66 ?

3

It may take a few months, but yes, I can see someone paying that much or more in a 66 holder.  

[coinman_23885]

4 hours ago, WoodenJefferson said:

No way this Walker gets into a 67 holder with either service. 66 maybe on a good day...

 

It's funny that I said this twice last year only to find the coins in PCGS 67 holders six months later.  Never underestimate the power of plastic, grade inflation, color bumping.  

[TonerGuy]

3 hours ago, Afterword said:

https://coins.ha.com/itm/peace-dollars/silver-and-related-dollars/1923-d-1-ms66-pcgs/a/1207-3872.s?ic4=ListView-Thumbnail-071515

I think it would depend on the toning. The Walking Liberty in question, I believe to be exceptional. I would be surprised if it did not receive a significate premium.

That Peace $ is about 2.5-3x value for the toning premium based on prices three years ago when it sold. And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence. I would venture to guess its probably the highest graded colorfully toned 23-D as well. So being a one of a kind coin, it makes sense that it went that high. There are always outliers.

Is this 40-S WLH a one of a kind coin ? I dont know. But at even at a grade of MS66 it still hammered at a priced that is 2.5-3x for the toning premium.

If it doesnt get into an MS66+ or higher Im going to say the value is maxed out at $2100. But there are a lot of people with deep pockets that over spend on coins everyday...

As for the 23-D Peace $, I will predict it will lose 25% value when it comes back to auction.

[physics-fan3.14]

Y'all want to see some crazy premiums, go check out Prooflike coins.... especially gold. 

[MarkFeld]

4 minutes ago, TonerGuy said:

That Peace $ is about 2.5-3x value for the toning premium based on prices three years ago when it sold. And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence. I would venture to guess its probably the highest graded colorfully toned 23-D as well. So being a one of a kind coin, it makes sense that it went that high. There are always outliers.

Is this 40-S WLH a one of a kind coin ? I dont know. But at even at a grade of MS66 it still hammered at a priced that is 2.5-3x for the toning premium.

If it doesnt get into an MS66+ or higher Im going to say the value is maxed out at $2100. But there are a lot of people with deep pockets that over spend on coins everyday...

As for the 23-D Peace $, I will predict it will lose 25% value when it comes back to auction.

A couple of points, Michael.

Hopefully, you meant to say "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D I know of" not "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence."

And with respect to the 1940-S half dollar - hopefully you meant to say "if it was bought for the color, as opposed to for an upgrade, at even at a grade of MS66 it still hammered at a priced that is 2.5-3x for the toning premium, not " But at even at a grade of MS66 it still hammered at a priced that is 2.5-3x for the toning premium".

 

[TonerGuy]

20 minutes ago, MarkFeld said:

A couple of points, Michael.

Hopefully, you meant to say "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D I know of" not "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence."

And with respect to the 1940-S half dollar - hopefully you meant to say "if it was bought for the color, as opposed to for an upgrade, at even at a grade of MS66 it still hammered at a priced that is 2.5-3x for the toning premium, not " But at even at a grade of MS66 it still hammered at a priced that is 2.5-3x for the toning premium".

 

Post photos/links if you have a more colorful example. And yes, Ive never seen one more colorful. In 20 yrs of specializing in them I might have forgotten a coin or two but 23-Ds are rare for color. If there's a more colorful 23-D MS67 example that you've seen, I'd love to hear about it.

As for the MS65 40-S WLH, do you honestly think someone bought it believing that it could go from an MS65 to MS67 without the toning ? I think whoever bought it is betting on a upgrade. Without the color bump, its not happening so its probably one in the same anyway.  No ?

[WoodenJefferson]

3 hours ago, coinman_23885 said:

It's funny that I said this twice last year only to find the coins in PCGS 67 holders six months later.  Never underestimate the power of plastic, grade inflation, color bumping.  

Maybe so, but there is a 'divot' in the sun that has toned over muting the divot so you look right past it, 67's do not have divots in focal points. It kills this coin for a 2 point bump IMO.

[MarkFeld]

50 minutes ago, TonerGuy said:

Post photos/links if you have a more colorful example. And yes, Ive never seen one more colorful. In 20 yrs of specializing in them I might have forgotten a coin or two but 23-Ds are rare for color. If there's a more colorful 23-D MS67 example that you've seen, I'd love to hear about it.

As for the MS65 40-S WLH, do you honestly think someone bought it believing that it could go from an MS65 to MS67 without the toning ? I think whoever bought it is betting on a upgrade. Without the color bump, its not happening so its probably one in the same anyway.  No ?

The fact that neither you nor I have seen a more colorful 1923-D does not equate to  "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence." Just as the highest graded example of a coin is not automatically the "finest in existence".

I don't know why the 1940-S brought the price that it did. But I make no assumptions about the price being based on the color, alone. 

I've seen a number of threads on coin forums over the years, speculating about why such and such coin brought what it did. And while I don't know the story of this coin, I do know of other examples where the speculation was dead wrong. 

[Afterword]

52 minutes ago, WoodenJefferson said:

It kills this coin for a 2 point bump IMO.

One bump would suffice.

[TonerGuy]

50 minutes ago, MarkFeld said:

The fact that neither you nor I have seen a more colorful 1923-D does not equate to  "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence." Just as the highest graded example of a coin is not automatically the "finest in existence".

I don't know why the 1940-S brought the price that it did. But I make no assumptions about the price being based on the color, alone. 

I've seen a number of threads on coin forums over the years, speculating about why such and such coin brought what it did. And while I don't know the story of this coin, I do know of other examples where the speculation was dead wrong. 

Its inductive reasoning.... sometimes you cannot have all of the facts in absolute terms before you, but you draw inferences based on reasonable conclusions. The fact that you have stated you have not seen a more colorful 23-D only leads me to the belief that my statement is more true than even before. If someone with the experience and expertise such that of Mark Feld has not seen a more colorful 23-D then its is more probably true than not - that one just simply does not exist. Thank you for helping confirm my suspicions.

As for the 40-S yes, I agree that is an impermissible assumption since we are not dealing with facts but rather emotion. Who knows, the coin could have been owned the deceased grandfather of the recent buyer and he could have merely want to reclaim a family heirloom and would have paid $5000 for it for sentimental reasons, having nothing to do with grade or color.

[Afterword]

I wonder if Mr. Feld was aware of the1940 S before its appearance on Great Collections. 

[MarkFeld]

17 minutes ago, TonerGuy said:

Its inductive reasoning.... sometimes you cannot have all of the facts in absolute terms before you, but you draw inferences based on reasonable conclusions. The fact that you have stated you have not seen a more colorful 23-D only leads me to the belief that my statement is more true than even before. If someone with the experience and expertise such that of Mark Feld has not seen a more colorful 23-D then its is more probably true than not - that one just simply does not exist. Thank you for helping confirm my suspicions.

As for the 40-S yes, I agree that is an impermissible assumption since we are not dealing with facts but rather emotion. Who knows, the coin could have been owned the deceased grandfather of the recent buyer and he could have merely want to reclaim a family heirloom and would have paid $5000 for it for sentimental reasons, having nothing to do with grade or color.

I could go along with your "is more probably true than not" with respect to the 1923-D being the most colorful in existence. But that's a far cry from "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence." That's my point and I won't beat it to death any further.

[TonerGuy]

1 hour ago, MarkFeld said:

I could go along with your "is more probably true than not" with respect to the 1923-D being the most colorful in existence. But that's a far cry from "And without question, its the most colorful 1923-D in existence." That's my point and I won't beat it to death any further.

Your "more probably true than not" is my "without exception." One man's indecisiveness is another man's absolute.

[MarkFeld]

13 minutes ago, TonerGuy said:

Your "more probably true than not" is my "without exception." One man's indecisiveness is another man's absolute.

Apparently

[coinman_23885]

There is also another factor that a lot of you are not considering.  My experience with GC photos is that the photos often underestimate the amount of luster a toned coin has in hand.  I have been surprised by this in the past.  Given the effect of luster and eye appeal (i.e. toning) in the grading process, I think there is a good basis for predicting a bump.  Of course, even if it doesn't, I don't think the price is a burial in the 65* holder.  I also find it interesting that the final bid was a tie, with timing of the bid being the tie breaker.  There are at least two people that view this as a $2090 coin.   

[TonerGuy]

20 minutes ago, coinman_23885 said:

I also find it interesting that the final bid was a tie, with timing of the bid being the tie breaker.  There are at least two people that view this as a $2090 coin.   

And that why I always add .01 to any bid just in case that happens! I would have hated losing that coin over .01