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What do you think? : Salzberg Advises: Research PCGS Populations and Prices

129 posts in this topic

1995-W S$1 PF 70 NGC

 

Take a look at this 1995-w PF 70 NGC sold for $12k just few days back, its a steal deal compared to what market demands generally for this coin.

 

Salzberg's analysis failed to take into account this sale. If it did, his point will be emphasized more!

 

Just pointing out that his analysis is not completely accurate and also a fact that the Coin Market is in deep decline generally.

 

I have several thousands of dollars invested/spent on coins, its for my enjoyment. I am always cautious dropping thousands on top grage hot coins as I see that over last 6 years most of them have come down in price, by even 50%!

 

I stick to as close as possible to top grade(to avoid super premiums) but good looking ones.

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Anyone can manipulate their data to make their point. It is a fact that the grading standards are looser at both NGC and PCGS than they were in the past. The population reports are obsolete because of crack-outs, crossovers, etc. I don't think anyone can take either population report seriously. True collectors buy the coin not the slab. The market will prove who has the highest grading standards and who is doing the best job.

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1995-W S$1 PF 70 NGC

 

Take a look at this 1995-w PF 70 sold for $12k just few days

back, its a steal deal compared to what market value. Salzberg's analysis failed to take into account this sale. If it did, his point will be emphasized more!

 

Just pointing out that his analysis is not completely accurate and also a fact that the Coin Market is in deep decline generally.

 

I have several thousands of dollars invested on coin, its for my enjoyment. I am always cautious dropping thousands on top grage hot coins as I see that over last 6 years most of them has come down in price, by even 50%!

 

I do not read his commentary as an in depth analysis, any more than I interpret your example as in depth analysis. To me, the point of commentary is a perception of unusual changes in the last 5 years, and cautioning collectors to be diligent. The comment certainly is not a fail. The commentary clearly states the examples used are and were extreme, to elicit attention to the focal issues intended.

 

Your comments do seem to be supporting his observations, though I am not sure how the decision of buying top grade hot coins was made, but hopefully was made with knowledge of the coin.

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Anyone can manipulate their data to make their point. It is a fact that the grading standards are looser at both NGC and PCGS than they were in the past. The population reports are obsolete because of crack-outs, crossovers, etc. I don't think anyone can take either population report seriously. True collectors buy the coin not the slab. The market will prove who has the highest grading standards and who is doing the best job.

 

Unfortunately, that is not what the market is doing. I don't think the data is manipulated. It is published information available to all.

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Anyone can manipulate their data to make their point. It is a fact that the grading standards are looser at both NGC and PCGS than they were in the past. The population reports are obsolete because of crack-outs, crossovers, etc. I don't think anyone can take either population report seriously. True collectors buy the coin not the slab. The market will prove who has the highest grading standards and who is doing the best job.

 

While in many or most cases the population reports are obsolete in terms of absolute numbers, they are not obsolete with respect to relative rarity or as a gauge of (dramatically) increased populations.

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Satzberg:

 

"I do not know why these PCGS-certified coin populations have changed so dramatically in recent years, however."

 

 

 

Nor does anyone know how many collectors there are and what percentage of these collectors have had their coins graded, or how many have recently had their coins graded or might do so in the future. And with only rudimental research into the matter, which TPG would they likely conclude offers the best return for their money?

 

However, I suspect there is more than one contributing factor that accounts for the phenomenon in question.

 

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We have all known that standards are loosening. It's about time somebody confronted PCGS in a public forum. Perfect case is 95-W ASE in Pf 70 DCAM. I warned just the other day on this forum that many more will be graded. And probably after seeing this criticism PCGS will probably tighten up for the next year or so. And of course they will probably see high dollar submissions drop for a while. Is numismatic politics allowed in this forum ?

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We have all known that standards are loosening. It's about time somebody confronted PCGS in a public forum. Perfect case is 95-W ASE in Pf 70 DCAM. I warned just the other day on this forum that many more will be graded. And probably after seeing this criticism PCGS will probably tighten up for the next year or so. And of course they will probably see high dollar submissions drop for a while. Is numismatic politics allowed in this forum ?

 

Salzberg and NGC are not the right messengers. I don't doubt that there have been issues with both services in the last decade especially.

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Is numismatic politics allowed in this forum ?

 

Obviously yes if the OP was allowed. Mark's diatribe was as politically motivated as they come.

 

mark

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I'm looking forward to a blue ribbon panel committee of the leading numismatists in the country to peruse and review all the issues raised in this report by Mr. Salzberg. I'm sure there are quite a few objective leaders who would be more than willing to look into all the issues and follow up with recommendations.

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We have all known that standards are loosening. It's about time somebody confronted PCGS in a public forum. Perfect case is 95-W ASE in Pf 70 DCAM. I warned just the other day on this forum that many more will be graded. And probably after seeing this criticism PCGS will probably tighten up for the next year or so. And of course they will probably see high dollar submissions drop for a while. Is numismatic politics allowed in this forum ?

 

One of the many problems with Mark's letter is that it is claiming PCGS is suddenly a third world slabber, while NGC has remained the stalwart champion of truth, justice, and the numismatic way. The mudslinging approach of this diatribe is extremely off-putting, not least because of its slack manipulation of statistics and its overt and unsubstantiated insinuations.

 

The reality is that NGC's standards have changed and continue to change, NGC slabs problem coins, NGC overgrades, etc. The major 2 TPGs both have the same problems. Denigrating PCGS does nothing to enhance NGC - it only makes Chairman Salzberg look like he's throwing a tantrum.

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We have all known that standards are loosening. It's about time somebody confronted PCGS in a public forum. Perfect case is 95-W ASE in Pf 70 DCAM. I warned just the other day on this forum that many more will be graded. And probably after seeing this criticism PCGS will probably tighten up for the next year or so. And of course they will probably see high dollar submissions drop for a while. Is numismatic politics allowed in this forum ?

 

One of the many problems with Mark's letter is that it is claiming PCGS is suddenly a third world slabber, while NGC has remained the stalwart champion of truth, justice, and the numismatic way. The mudslinging approach of this diatribe is extremely off-putting, not least because of its slack manipulation of statistics and its overt and unsubstantiated insinuations.

 

The reality is that NGC's standards have changed and continue to change, NGC slabs problem coins, NGC overgrades, etc. The major 2 TPGs both have the same problems. Denigrating PCGS does nothing to enhance NGC - it only makes Chairman Salzberg look like he's throwing a tantrum.

 

That was really well put. Thank you

 

mark

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I don't collect modern coins. Perhaps because of this I was curious and noodled around the NGC and PCGS websites, looking specifically and only at the 95-W ASE. I only made ONE PASS, so please validate.

 

According to Coins Facts 30,125 of these were issued. Of these, 7,336 have been graded by PCGS and NGC, ignoring the obvious redundancy factor.

 

Of the 4,952 coins graded by NGC. 451 show in the POP report as PF70, or 9.1%.

 

Of the 2,384 coins graded by PCGS, 175 show in the POP report as PF70, or 7.3%.

 

Coin Facts shows 3 of these sold this month by HA. The one PCGS coin sold for $18,800. The two NGC coins sold for $12,925 and $12,338. I looked at auction photos for all 3 and I'll be damned if I could tell the difference between these coins, not too surprising since they're supposed to be perfect and they were all untoned.

 

So, this seems an odd example to use to call out PCGS, for obvious reasons.

 

As to the growth in populations at the PF70 level, consider that at most 24.4% of the reported mintage has been graded (were these melted or something?). So, there are a ton of these still out there. With such astounding prices, it's a wonder that the populations have not grown more. After all, the valuation at all levels is very high and a huge proportion grade PF69, so owners of these coins are super motivated to send them in and sell them. Since bullion coins are popular with non-collectors, ignorance probably explains why so many are still "at large".

 

I'm way out of my comfort zone here, and didn't double-check myself, so if I'm off base, apologies all around.

 

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We have all known that standards are loosening. It's about time somebody confronted PCGS in a public forum. Perfect case is 95-W ASE in Pf 70 DCAM. I warned just the other day on this forum that many more will be graded. And probably after seeing this criticism PCGS will probably tighten up for the next year or so. And of course they will probably see high dollar submissions drop for a while. Is numismatic politics allowed in this forum ?

 

One of the many problems with Mark's letter is that it is claiming PCGS is suddenly a third world slabber, while NGC has remained the stalwart champion of truth, justice, and the numismatic way. The mudslinging approach of this diatribe is extremely off-putting, not least because of its slack manipulation of statistics and its overt and unsubstantiated insinuations.

 

The reality is that NGC's standards have changed and continue to change, NGC slabs problem coins, NGC overgrades, etc. The major 2 TPGs both have the same problems. Denigrating PCGS does nothing to enhance NGC - it only makes Chairman Salzberg look like he's throwing a tantrum.

 

That observation is spot-on.

 

If he wanted to end the posting of PCGS on coins in the NGC registry, he should have been honest and stated that he was changing his marketing approach. That would have not made people happy, but at least he would have made an honest statement as to why he was taking that action.

 

BOTH services have let their grading standards slip. That is a fact.

 

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Concerning the 95-W ASE PCGS DC 70

 

From the one of the biggest modern players on the planet ( if not the biggest)

 

mark

 

"One forgets that prior to the "$86k" sale of 95-W, a 95-W coin (with even a lower PCGS population at the time) sold for around $20k, give or take, at Stacks. So, now, years later with the pop sharply higher in PR70DC the 95-W is selling for about just 5%-10% less than the Stacks sales price when the pop was just 5 or 6 or 7 (someone can look it up). The fact that collectors started paying 2x and 3x and 4x the Stacks public auction price - it made no sense to me then and makes no sense to me now. I just ask myself why I kept my PR70DC 95-W coin in my personal collection the whole time instead of just selling it for $40k or $50k and rebuying one for $20k later! Me - bad. I have tried to teach my son to STOP BEING A COLLECTOR like his old man.

 

As far as the pop having stayed at 1 or 2 for many years on the 95-W - remember PCGS had stopped grading PR70DC Silver Eagles (and MS70's for that matter) for quite a while there for a number of reasons, including in the later years trying to figure out why the coins were spotting in the holder.

 

Conclusion - it's "complicated" when it comes to analyzing the 95-W and its price history. To be honest, I could have written 2 or 3 more pages on just this one coin, but you get the idea."

 

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It looks like these two TPG's are fooling around with over grading. This is more concerning as this fooling around is costing some people (like who paid 20k for 95-W).

 

Just a joke:

 

Its time to open a numismatic regulatory board (NGB) with elected representatives and start regulatating TPG's and make them accountable. People who lost thousands will also have a venue to file warranted complaints to numismatic consumer protection bureau (NCPB).

 

NGC's Mark Salzberg will file the 1st complaint against PCGS!!! lol! David Hall will file the 2nd against NGC.

 

It will be fun to watch... more people will leave the hobby and the 95-w will come down to $5k a piece sold by apmex on ebay!

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I don't collect modern coins. Perhaps because of this I was curious and noodled around the NGC and PCGS websites, looking specifically and only at the 95-W ASE. I only made ONE PASS, so please validate.

 

According to Coins Facts 30,125 of these were issued. Of these, 7,336 have been graded by PCGS and NGC, ignoring the obvious redundancy factor.

 

Of the 4,952 coins graded by NGC. 451 show in the POP report as PF70, or 9.1%.

 

Of the 2,384 coins graded by PCGS, 175 show in the POP report as PF70, or 7.3%.

 

Coin Facts shows 3 of these sold this month by HA. The one PCGS coin sold for $18,800. The two NGC coins sold for $12,925 and $12,338. I looked at auction photos for all 3 and I'll be damned if I could tell the difference between these coins, not too surprising since they're supposed to be perfect and they were all untoned.

 

So, this seems an odd example to use to call out PCGS, for obvious reasons.

 

As to the growth in populations at the PF70 level, consider that at most 24.4% of the reported mintage has been graded (were these melted or something?). So, there are a ton of these still out there. With such astounding prices, it's a wonder that the populations have not grown more. After all, the valuation at all levels is very high and a huge proportion grade PF69, so owners of these coins are super motivated to send them in and sell them. Since bullion coins are popular with non-collectors, ignorance probably explains why so many are still "at large".

 

I'm way out of my comfort zone here, and didn't double-check myself, so if I'm off base, apologies all around.

 

I believe that Proof coins are typically the most difficult of all to try to grade from images. That is because their grades are most likely to be affected by hairlines, which aren't apparent in images. So it's not surprising that you couldn't tell the difference from on-line images and you shouldn't draw any conclusions from that.

 

Regarding the large increase in the popuation of the 1995-W's - owners would have been motivated to have them graded, long before the large population increase that was highlighted. So that doesn't explain the population explosion.

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This is a direct result of Dealers and others resubmitting the same rare coins over and over again. When a population 15 coin suddenly has a population of 80 and the price then corresponds to a population of 80, owners of the original 15 are getting hosed.

 

Furthermore, when coins are cracked or submitted for crossover without including the label so the coin can be backed out of the population reports, the assumed inventory becomes inflated falsely.

 

Grading standards being a moving target has a huge role in this practice. Population reports are not as reliable as a morning constitutional, but are made of the same material.

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Regarding the large increase in the popuation of the 1995-W's - owners would have been motivated to have them graded, long before the large population increase that was highlighted. So that doesn't explain the population explosion.

 

Sure, but to conclude that standards have loosened, I would have to know what the relative numbers were in 2013, the beginning point of the graph. You probably have a number in mind because of your experience, but I would be curious to know what the total graded population was in 2013 and what percentage were PF70 at that time. Same for all examples given.

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I've learned a lot here, made many friends and at one time really enjoyed both TPG's. I made many attempts to educate on GSA's and VAMS, all fell on deaf ears. I pitched a fit this summer because the powers at be didn't even know thier competition even graded the large black govt packaging. I discovered a new VAM which was denied certification to later be accepted from a dealer who offered it to me at 10x market value. I've tracked 3 new VAMS all discovered in Florida and not on any of he alleged list; hotlist 40, top 100 etc. I also in June 2016 made several posts for warning of this change coming of disallowing other TPG just to be be told no that's not happening.

Now all this behavior; be it greed or childish it's has sucked the joy out of all boards for me. I'm headed back into the dark or closet if you will and be very happy to sit at my desk and (as my wife says, play coins) all by myself. After all playing with ones self or alone as not to offend is the most pleasurable as on ones self knows what they like. I don't need points, paper awards or anyone's approval to be happy.

I really should thank at least eight members here for thier over the top help including one who made a change to thier account simply because I asked a question and he didn't want to offend me. Please change it back as this is my last visit here. The others I believe know who they are and how much I appreciate them. Lastly, Roger I left ALL kind of openings here for your witty remarks; so go wild and enjoy yourself ?. I'm literally sick at my stomach from all this lack of common decency not to mention zero respect. I'm headed to the registry here and ATS to delete everything possible. Nothing could bring me back into this mess. Don't brother responding I'll never see it.

Thank you my firiends and I wish y'all the best of luck. Also, I do admire those who continue to fight for our hobby; I just have other priorities.

HashTag, #, David in Texas❤

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That was more gracious than anticipated.

 

Agreed.

PGCS: 2. NGC: 0.

 

You know you have erred when Don Willis comes off as the gracious and professional one.

 

The high road. A road less traveled

 

Mark

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That was more gracious than anticipated.

 

Agreed.

PGCS: 2. NGC: 0.

 

You know you have erred when Don Willis comes off as the gracious and professional one.

 

An interesting, measured, and reasonable response from Don.

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There needs to be much more evidence to support NGC's position as other long term leaders in the hobby like Mark Feld have asserted, that PCGS was weakening its grading standards: Supported by unarguable statistics and evidence with examples across most of the Redbook listed coins. I'm sure the evidence exists and Mr. Salzberg's article was not a solitary product but the end result of many conversations he has been having in and outside NGC.

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I will have to say I agree with Mr Salzberg's article. I do this stuff all day long for modern coins from 1965 - current and here are a couple of things i have noticed between the two companies. NGC has always been tougher on Proof 70 fractional coinage than PCGS. PCGS has usually been tougher on modern mint state fractional coinage but I consider them to be more or less equal currently. Here is a copy of a post I put up on PCGS website with no responses. For those PCGS lovers it's not that there were more coins submitted for the chosen date range. It's looseness and these coins in the market have killed NGC prices and will continue to hold them down because of the gross numbers of junk out there. he could have used so many more examples.

 

"For me, the proof 70uc/dc market from 1973-1976 stands out the most when comparing the 2 companies for that sort of thing: 39 at NGC and 2,056 at PCGS. I have made all but 1 of the NGC 70UC coins personally for that range: 0 Lincoln, 3 Jefferson, 21 Roosevelt, 12 Washington, 2 Kennedy and 1 IKE (a cameo). Nearly all of these are the 1976 clad series just a couple of the rest.

 

The PCGS pops combined for this dates are: 3 Lincoln, 119 Jefferson, 648 Roosevelt, 615 Washington, 453 Kennedy and 218 IKE. I know both of the grading companies really well and the PCGS 70's are as you would expect very loose for that range. i see them all of the time. Many planchet marks, digs, nicks, scuffs "dip burns" and "dip toning" on the 70DC PCGS coins I have seen. The biggest difference is the reverse of the coins and the level of cameo accepted as perfect, many times the same for the obverse.

 

Anyway, just to go on record, the difference is not recognized in the marketplace past 2 or 3 buyers and it is a shame but a fact and I just wish NGC would loosen up, so there is an actual market for these dates. I'm sure NGC knows about this quite well without me bending their ear on it"

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The PCGS response is a marketing response (with a few illogical presentations of superiority), as opposed to well thought out and gracious damnation of the focal issues raised by NGC.

 

Coca Cola heard the competitive critics and responded accordingly, with a return to the core quality of the product, finally and forever killing the Coca-Cola defense syndrome that had plagued their inability to shift from marketing to quality improvement and by doing so, contributed to an economic stabilization of the industry and a continued focus on quality that continues today. This had the added value over time of moving competitors in a similar direction.

 

Maybe the same will happen in the hobby.

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Why did Willis not address the implied accusation by Salzberg that PCGS was practicing gradeflation? I find it surprising that he failed to acknowledge this aspect of Salzberg's assault on PCGS.

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