For Two Years The Coin Market Has Been In A Freefall........
0

46 posts in this topic

2,764 posts

Anyone see a reason why there would be an upswing in the near future? I think we are going to see a winnowing out of dealers, will be less and less as this continues. Is the situation good for collectors? How much of all of the new caveats for grading - i.e. changing grading standards, sticker companies, helped or not, this market freefall?

 

Best, HT

 

PCGS3000

Edited by Hard Times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,726 posts

It sure doesn't seem like it with the coins I'm in the market for. Maybe there's still hope. I'll be waiting patiently for the prices to free fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10,720 posts
It sure doesn't seem like it with the coins I'm in the market for. Maybe there's still hope. I'll be waiting patiently for the prices to free fall.

 

Yes, I have read about this "free fall" market, and I never get to participate in it.

 

Every time I bid on something in an auction, the bids go crazy. I go to shows, and most of the stuff is over graded.

 

I hope that I can get on board with free fall market sometime soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14,787 posts

I have noticed that, over the past year, the market for the type of material I pursue has fallen from "red hot nuclear explosion" to just "raging inferno".

 

Its still beyond what I would prefer.... much stronger than 2011-2013, and I really hope we fall back to those levels. Honestly, I can't afford to chase the prices that my preferred type is getting, so I'm looking to other areas for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
794 posts

Is 10% over 3 years a free fall? Certainly a decline based upon that index, but seems gradual and not dramatic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14,787 posts
Is 10% over 3 years a free fall? Certainly a decline based upon that index, but seems gradual and not dramatic.

 

Thbe 3 year graph looks bad, but I think the 10 year graph is even more illustrative: http://www.pcgs.com/prices/graph.aspx?range=10%20years&filename=index

 

This index is highly dependent on what you collect, of course. However, a medium term trend over 3 years shows an overall weakness in the industry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,689 posts
It sure doesn't seem like it with the coins I'm in the market for. Maybe there's still hope. I'll be waiting patiently for the prices to free fall.

 

Yes, I have read about this "free fall" market, and I never get to participate in it.

 

Every time I bid on something in an auction, the bids go crazy. I go to shows, and most of the stuff is over graded.

 

I hope that I can get on board with free fall market sometime soon.

 

I'm with Bill

 

mark

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,844 posts
It sure doesn't seem like it with the coins I'm in the market for. Maybe there's still hope. I'll be waiting patiently for the prices to free fall.

 

Yes, I have read about this "free fall" market, and I never get to participate in it.

 

Every time I bid on something in an auction, the bids go crazy. I go to shows, and most of the stuff is over graded.

 

I hope that I can get on board with free fall market sometime soon.

 

I'm with Bill

 

mark

 

(thumbs u I'm with you guys, too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24,957 posts

Man, I wouldn't even want to ski on that slope, Double Diamond run for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9,063 posts
Is 10% over 3 years a free fall? Certainly a decline based upon that index, but seems gradual and not dramatic.

 

It is only looking at a small sample of coins. Type and many other series have taken dumps that are much larger. I think the market is down much more than the graph suggests.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,589 posts

If you only look at the past 3 years, things look to be in a freefall:

 

index5graph.gif

 

But if you look at the overall graph, things seem pretty stable:

 

indexallgraph.gif

 

Things I like seem to be strong, like the below:

 

1885 Dauphin County, PA Centennial Medal in Silver, HK-Unlisted, Raymond-154, NGC MS63 DPL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
515 posts

I attended my first coin club meeting last week, and the good news was that the turnout was close to fifty attendees. The bad news was that 80% of those in attendance were in their mid 60's or older. I'm 42, and there was only one other person younger.

 

I hope this is unique, and not a microcosm of the demographics of coin collectors Nationwide...if so, prices will probably continue to decline as more of the older generation of collectors pass on without a replacement base of younger collectors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,589 posts
I attended my first coin club meeting last week, and the good news was that the turnout was close to fifty attendees. The bad news was that 80% of those in attendance were in their mid 60's or older. I'm 42, and there was only one other person younger.

 

I hope this is unique, and not a microcosm of the demographics of coin collectors Nationwide...if so, prices will probably continue to decline as more of the older generation of collectors pass on without a replacement base of younger collectors.

 

The key part of this is "a replacement base of younger collectors". This is being impacted by increasing competing hobbies, decreasing use of coins in everyday life and decreasing disposable income.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,542 posts

I predict you will see even more Hard Times ahead....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,589 posts
I predict you will see even more Hard Times ahead....

 

It's getting to the point that debt cannot even ease the hard times....

 

HTFC_2013_SS.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
524 posts

1) Generally speaking, any graph with numbers that doesn't start at 0 is misleading. a 10% drop in 3 years is not a freefall. I have noticed some occasional softness at auctions but most of the time, the pieces I try to acquire have been going for very strong/record prices.

2) Coin collectors have always tended to be older. The void isn't getting filled by young numismatists becoming old numismatists, it's filled by old non-collectors becoming collectors.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
515 posts
If you only look at the past 3 years, things look to be in a freefall:

 

index5graph.gif

 

But if you look at the overall graph, things seem pretty stable:

 

indexallgraph.gif

 

Things I like seem to be strong, like the below:

 

1885 Dauphin County, PA Centennial Medal in Silver, HK-Unlisted, Raymond-154, NGC MS63 DPL

 

Does the long term graph take into account ASE sales and modern commemorative's too? I'm wondering if U.S. mint offerings, especially the latter 80's where the market started to peak if the U.S. mint had anything to do with this- 1986 introduction of ASE with resulting public awareness and demand? Silver Eagle demand has been strong past few years, and curious what the market would look like if this data removed. That is; if it's accounted for as well in data.

 

 

Edited by PocketArt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14,297 posts

IMHO, the chart, while having some limited value as info for the "overall "market" (and only because it is a PCGS generated indicator) is reflecting PCGS graded coins, and the base info was a reflection of average dealer asking prices. It is an investment/speculative portfolio chart guide, nothing more, nothing less. It does not reflect what the average collector is doing, by any means. It does not reflect non-TPG coins, NGC graded coins (or any other TPG graded coins, or "Moderns"), although it gives that impression at first glance.The average hobbyist does not delve in-depth in the investment aspect of the coin or coins.

 

The chart does not account for gradeflation, or competitive pricing. It may be a sort of Edwards and Magee tool that has some overall thought process value, but I do not personally comprehend why any collector/hobbyist, or even investment goal oriented hobbyist/collector would find the information as any indication at all.

 

It of course has value in the more expensive individual coins, I don't know,, say 5K and above, when analysed individually, but even then does not address the other factors noted above.

 

Then again, I am not a stock market investor or investment based anything, really, and I never quite grasped the idea of hobby investment for a portfolio. I collect what I collect, and if I can afford it, that is good enough for me.

 

Maybe if we had a generic 1000 (widget, I think is the term used by those that think in terms of superiority of position of knowledge and investment ability of non-common coins?) non-investment based chart with only info supplied by hobbyists, it might be a little more helpful to the average collector.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,045 posts
If you only look at the past 3 years, things look to be in a freefall:

 

index5graph.gif

 

But if you look at the overall graph, things seem pretty stable:

 

indexallgraph.gif

 

 

One of the classic ways of "lying with statistics" is to alter the y-axis. The graph is basically flat since 2003.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5,211 posts
It sure doesn't seem like it with the coins I'm in the market for. Maybe there's still hope. I'll be waiting patiently for the prices to free fall.

 

Yes, I have read about this "free fall" market, and I never get to participate in it.

 

Every time I bid on something in an auction, the bids go crazy. I go to shows, and most of the stuff is over graded.

 

I hope that I can get on board with free fall market sometime soon.

 

I'm with Bill

 

mark

im with bill as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,764 posts

 

Maybe if we had a generic 1000 (widget, I think is the term used by those that think in terms of superiority of position of knowledge and investment ability of non-common coins?) non-investment based chart with only info supplied by hobbyists, it might be a little more helpful to the average collector.

 

I like the idea of a generic 1000......

 

The PCGS 3000 has an effect on dealers though that like to buy and flip quickly on high end coins. It is hard to do that well if prices are not rising. If you don't have a buyer lined up with buying, and you hold the coin and can't flip it for your anticipated profit quickly, well it is all a downward slope.

 

Also, I feel there has been an overall lowering of the quality of the material in auctions such as those at HA over the past 1/2 decade. I believe alot of folks just are not optimistic of getting great prices in the auctions for their best stuff and without the rising prices I think that holds them back from consigning. Or am I just getting more picky with time?

 

Best, HT

Edited by Hard Times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14,297 posts

I think it only full disclosure to mention that Mr. Roadrunner suggested such an idea about a year ago or so, not so much for widgets, but along the lines of an eclectic mix of the types of coins an average collector would be interested in. If I recall correctly, he mentioned that the 3,000 should not be entirely dismissed and I thought his ideas were well thought out. I just don't place as much info value on the index, because I think it is somewhat self serving do to the base info (starting point) and limitation (PCGS).

 

So, I am sort of riding his coattails here, idea wise, but for different reasons and a different index base.

 

FWIW.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11,793 posts

The chart range for 2009 though 2015 is about 15%. The past three years appear like a step drop because of the scale. Claiming "free fall" or "mega market" or any other superlatives is faulty interpretation of the data. That nearly always is an indicator of reporter bias.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,048 posts

Try buying a nice REDBOOK variety of Capped Bust Half Dollar in PCGS 58 CAC. Even I am starting to get discouraged.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14,787 posts

 

Does the long term graph take into account ASE sales and modern commemorative's too? I'm wondering if U.S. mint offerings, especially the latter 80's where the market started to peak if the U.S. mint had anything to do with this- 1986 introduction of ASE with resulting public awareness and demand? Silver Eagle demand has been strong past few years, and curious what the market would look like if this data removed. That is; if it's accounted for as well in data.

 

 

The PCGS3000 is a compilation pricing index based on the values of a published list of 3000 popular coins. It focuses on rare coins, not on moderns or bullion. You can find that list here: http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PCGS3000.aspx

 

PCGS also tracks a variety of other market segments (one of which is 20th century coinage). You can see all of their market segments here: http://www.pcgs.com/prices/frame.aspx?type=coinindex&filename=index The 20th century index over the last 10 years shows and even more impressive drop than the overall market - moderns are weak, which should come as little surprise to most:

 

twenty10graph.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,367 posts

@physicsfan, based on the chart you posted, it still equates to around a 14% drop. I guess it's all relative, but I don't see that as a free fall. A downturn, sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,764 posts

Over that 10 year period (and more to the point the past 6 years since recovery from the 2008 crash) compare coins to the stock market, if one uses for example the S&P as a normalizer, the the 10-20% drop in coins is even bigger compared to what is considered the bread and butter investments. Stocks are pretty much an indicator of the economy as well, so up in stocks and the economy at the same time down in coins. That is a free fall............

 

Best, HT

Edited by Hard Times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,647 posts
Over that 10 year period (and more to the point the past 6 years since recovery from the 2008 crash) compare coins to the stock market, if one uses for example the S&P as a normalizer, the the 10-20% drop in coins is even bigger compared to what is considered the bread and butter investments. Stocks are pretty much an indicator of the economy as well, so up in stocks and the economy at the same time down in coins. That is a free fall............

 

Best, HT

 

A freefall (or lack thereof) has nothing to do with the stock market or other investments.

 

And the PCGS 3000 index looks to have fallen roughly 8% to 9%, whether measured over the last three years or the last two years. That seems like a far cry from a freefall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,764 posts
Over that 10 year period (and more to the point the past 6 years since recovery from the 2008 crash) compare coins to the stock market, if one uses for example the S&P as a normalizer, the the 10-20% drop in coins is even bigger compared to what is considered the bread and butter investments. Stocks are pretty much an indicator of the economy as well, so up in stocks and the economy at the same time down in coins. That is a free fall............

 

Best, HT

 

A freefall (or lack thereof) has nothing to do with the stock market or other investments.

 

And the PCGS 3000 index looks to have fallen roughly 8% to 9%, whether measured over the last three years or the last two years. That seems like a far cry from a freefall.

 

When one compares that to the greater economy performance, as marked by a stock index, call it what you want, but a poor performance at least. Since its low point of March 6, 2009 after a fall in 2008, the SP500 was $683.38, today it is 2151.33. PCGS 3000 was around $66,500 then, and $62,000 now. That equates to 314.8% increase and 6.8% decrease for the SP500 and the PCGS 3000, respectively. You can take just about any 3 to 10 year time interval over the past decade and the SP500 outperforms the PCGS 3000 by multiples.

 

So coins have dropped during a strong economic boom. Just buying an SP500 index fund, you would have multiples of value compared to buying coins. To me, that is a freefall......

 

Best, HT

 

Edited by Hard Times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
772 posts

Seems to me the indexes that could be falling are common varieties and stuff with less than outstanding eye appeal. This wont effect me as I have no interest in these coins. We will always pay good money for those 'must have' pieces that don't come around too often. Choose wisely my friends !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
0