Most overproduced collector coins?

[Hepcat]

Which U.S. and Canadian silver (or gold) coins minted for the collector market were most egregiously overproduced and are therefore most commonly available today?

 

[brg5658]

Silver Eagles -- even the "rare" ones aren't even remotely scarce by any stretch of the imagination.

 

 

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

Which U.S. and Canadian silver (or gold) coins minted for the collector market were most egregiously overproduced and are therefore most commonly available today?

 

 

U.S. Presidential Dollars and State Quarters.

[coinman1794]

Which U.S. and Canadian silver (or gold) coins minted for the collector market were most egregiously overproduced and are therefore most commonly available today?

 

 

U.S. Presidential Dollars and State Quarters.

 

Those gold dollars weren't real gold!

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

Which U.S. and Canadian silver (or gold) coins minted for the collector market were most egregiously overproduced and are therefore most commonly available today?

 

 

U.S. Presidential Dollars and State Quarters.

 

Those gold dollars weren't real gold!

 

That trapped all the Walmart shoppers.....

[johnny9434]

That trapped all the Walmart shoppers.... lmao, aint that the truth

[okbustchaser]

All of them. The mint should have stuck to its real job and never entered the collector/investor market.

[World Colonial]

Which U.S. and Canadian silver (or gold) coins minted for the collector market were most egregiously overproduced and are therefore most commonly available today?

 

 

U.S. Presidential Dollars and State Quarters.

 

These coins were made for circulation, not the collector market unless you are referring to SMS and proofs.

 

 

[World Colonial]

All of them. The mint should have stuck to its real job and never entered the collector/investor market.

 

I tend to agree with this comment. I suspect (but do not actually know) that except for those made artificially rare, the lopsided majority of others have real collector demand far below the mintage. A disproportionate percentage are owned by dealers as inventory and speculators for flipping.

 

One I happen to like and will eventually buy is the dual dated 1911-2011 Canada proof set with the portrait of KGV issued to commemorate the 1911 specimen dollar. It has a "low" mintage of 6000 and retails for about $200 USD. Despite this "low" mintage, I am dubious there are 6000 actual collectors for it.

[Hepcat]

Has any U.S. collector coin been as egregiously over produced as the 1976 Canadian Olympic $5 and $10 coins? Every pawn shop seems to have a small box full of those.

 

[PocketArt]

Modern day commemoratives- 1982 and onward.

 

I've bought many of these from Hepcat's aforesaid pawn shop reference for considerably less than Red Book, and Coin World monthly prices.

 

Hepcat, I did see a Canadian gold proof at my favorite pawn shop that was about the size of a Canadian .50 cent piece but didn't inspect the coin. It had an '80's Queen Elizabeth II bust portrait.

 

I do like Canadian coins but wasn't hunting for them that day. I live in Northwest Ohio; so I see Canadian coins frequently in circulation and took a shine to these at an early age.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[World Colonial]

Has any U.S. collector coin been as egregiously over produced as the 1976 Canadian Olympic $5 and $10 coins? Every pawn shop seems to have a small box full of those.

 

 

I am not familiar with most Canadian NCLT or commemorative coins. However, the ones I believe are the most overproduced are the colorized "coins" which I consider pure gimmicks. I see there long term real collector base as near zero.

 

In the aggregate though, I estimate that multiplying Canadian mintages by the ratio of the collector base is the best comparison. Maybe 10 to 15 times?

[BillJones]

Has any U.S. collector coin been as egregiously over produced as the 1976 Canadian Olympic $5 and $10 coins? Every pawn shop seems to have a small box full of those.

 

 

If the fact that some U.S. modern commemorative gold coins have ended up in melting pot is an indicator, the answer is yes.

[Hepcat]

I am not familiar with most Canadian NCLT or commemorative coins. However, the ones I believe are the most overproduced are the colorized "coins" which I consider pure gimmicks. I see there long term real collector base as near zero.

 

I agree. And not just gimmicks, but gimmicks designed to appeal to women and other people with no interest in coins who are just looking for a gift for their grand kids.

 

[Hepcat]

Has any U.S. collector coin been as egregiously over produced as the 1976 Canadian Olympic $5 and $10 coins? Every pawn shop seems to have a small box full of those.

 

 

If the fact that some U.S. modern commemorative gold coins have ended up in melting pot is an indicator, the answer is yes.

 

That makes no sense. Why would any dealer incur the charge to melt down a coin when I've never seen a coin retail for less than its gold content?

 

[World Colonial]

 

 

I

Has any U.S. collector coin been as egregiously over produced as the 1976 Canadian Olympic $5 and $10 coins? Every pawn shop seems to have a small box full of those.

 

 

If the fact that some U.S. modern commemorative gold coins have ended up in melting pot is an indicator, the answer is yes.

 

That makes no sense. Why would any dealer incur the charge to melt down a coin when I've never seen a coin retail for less than its gold content?

 

 

I have heard it happens as well though with no direct knowledge of it.

 

As to why, its presumably because dealers do not have enough (retail) customers who will pay a premium.

 

The example that immediately comes to mind is the first souse series. I have read numerous posts on PCGS about its supposed future favorable prospects due to the "low" mintages. Sure the mintages are "low" by US standards but all of them exist in MS or PR-69 from day one, the series must be worth around $30k to $40k at melt at current gold prices and it has zero numismatic appeal to the lopsided majority of collectors. I suspect there are far more flippers and speculators who believe this storyline than there will ever be real collectors who will want it.

[Conder101]

That makes no sense. Why would any dealer incur the charge to melt down a coin when I've never seen a coin retail for less than its gold content?

Theoretical situation.

 

Dealer has a LOT of money tied up in a bunch of gold commems, melt value has gone up so that he can melt them and make a profit over what he paid and recover his funds immediately and can use it to make more purchases (keeps his money turning) . Or he can hold them and try to sell them for a little more to collectors, but it may take several years, and gold could go back down so that he would either have to sell them at a loss, or hold them even longer. His money is tied up and he may miss other opportunities for lack of capital. The time value of money is also a consideration. If he has to hold them too long he may take a loss in real terms even if he makes a theoretical profit in dollars. It makes more business sense to melt the coins and free up his money.

 

Now I called this theoretical but it does happen. Back in 2007 the number of first spouse coins were way oversold and shortly there after dropped to melt value, Silvertowne bought thousands of them at melt value. Then melt went up but the collector market for the coins stayed dead, So they had enough stock to supply collectors for years if not decades before getting ther money back, or they could melt them and make tens of thousands of dollars of immediately profit. Guess what, he melted them.

[World Colonial]

Now I called this theoretical but it does happen. Back in 2007 the number of first spouse coins were way oversold and shortly there after dropped to melt value, Silvertowne bought thousands of them at melt value. Then melt went up but the collector market for the coins stayed dead, So they had enough stock to supply collectors for years if not decades before getting ther money back, or they could melt them and make tens of thousands of dollars of immediately profit. Guess what, he melted them.

 

I believe this happens often even outside of metal bubbles such as 1979 and 2011, though I have no direct knowledge of it. And by often, not just with first spouse but any number of coins for the same reason.

 

If you look at the original mintages and likely attrition (primarily from circulation but not necessarily), its highly likely the supply vastly exceeds prior, current or any realistic foreseeable real collector demand.

 

There was a recent Coin Week article (in the last month or two I believe) where a prominent numismatist argued a case for buying original rolls of what is presumably late mid 1950's to mid 1960's US coinage. His advice wasn't based upon the scarcity of the coins in the rolls, but the "rarity" of these original unopened rolls.

 

He may be correct but this is pure speculation and any speculator might as well buy something far more liquid at a much lower premium with less risk. Other than speculating on the future potential TPG grade or "cherry picking" other types of specialization, collectors have no use for them.

 

To bring it back this topic, whether in a roll or otherwise, the supply of a large number of US and world classics and moderns (base metal or otherwise) vastly exceeds the current and realistic collector base who pay noticeably higher prices. So financially, the most realistic way to change this equation is to reduce the supply, by a substantial proportion. Melting silver and gold coins is the primary way to do it.

[Jedinite]

Most overpriced: Any of the more recent, slabbed MS69 & MS70 regular strike and proof gold and silver eagles. Better be prepared to lose money over time. Second place: Most modern commems.

[Hepcat]

...the supply of a large number of US and world classics and moderns (base metal or otherwise) vastly exceeds the current and realistic collector base who pay noticeably higher prices.

 

Makes me wonder though whether the collector base will ever come to its senses and just say "no!" to high prices not warranted by the supply.

 

[World Colonial]

...the supply of a large number of US and world classics and moderns (base metal or otherwise) vastly exceeds the current and realistic collector base who pay noticeably higher prices.

 

Makes me wonder though whether the collector base will ever come to its senses and just say "no!" to high prices not warranted by the supply.

 

 

My explanation for the current prices for what are usually incredibly common coins is that only a fraction of it is available for sale at any time. It should be apparent that if the supply available for sale were to increase noticeably and stay there with the same demand even if it was a very low percentage of what exists, prices would decline substantially. All prices are set at the margin.

 

I have often wondered who owns most coins which I presume exist in much greater supply than is apparent. For the most common, I presume most of it is owned by a combination of speculators and non-collectors.

 

Some US proof sets have mintages of what, over three million? There aren't remotely anywhere near that many collectors for it. If the 09-S VDB cent really has 50,000 in existence or a lot more, I expect there are enough collectors for it but not remotely at its current price. Late 1820's and 1830's Bust halves must have 50,000 survivors, at minimum. This is about 1% of the mintage, they were stored in banks in large quantities and in this instance, I don't believe there would have been more than minimal melting, even in 1979. Who owns them? I have no idea. As popular as Morgan dollars are, I don't believe there are 300,000+ collectors for all the 1881-S in the NGC and PCGS population reports either. This coin is likely owned by individual speculators by the hundreds and in a few instances, maybe even thousands.