Opinions on PCGS Coin Fact survival estimates

[World Colonial]

I performed a limited review last night and would be interested in anyone else's opinion, particularly for a series you know well. Here is what I saw and these are all business strikes:

 

Draped bust half dimes: Aside from the 1802 and 1805, survival for MS-60+ seems too high and doesn't sufficiently account for census duplicates. Don't remember the date but seems hard to believe any could have as many as 60.

 

IHC: All seem way too low. A comment on PGCS expressed the same opinion. There is no way the 1890 has 100 (or thereabouts) in MS while a draped bust half dime has 60. Same concept applies for the total survivors. I suspect a substantial proportion in lower MS grades remain ungraded.

 

Capped Bust half: Total survivors seem way too low, except maybe for early dates. As an example, 1810 is listed as 4500 while the later dates I recall 6000-8000. I also believe the number of MS for the later dates might be too low.

 

One reason I am interested is because for earlier coinage, if Coin Facts is a reasonblae "ballpark" estimate, then the estimates Gilboy provides for the pillar coinage I collect are hugely inflated and I think a reasonable inference can be made for other (roughly) contemporary coinage, though this needs to be adjusted for known hoards and the tendency of any coin to be preserved.

 

As an example, if draped bust half dimes have in the range of 2500 survivors, then I see no possibility the Peru 1756, 1757 and 1761 half real have over 1000 in VF or better. The much lower value distorts the availability to the downside but I have seen few of them in 15 years.

 

 

[RWB]

Estimating the number of specific coins that exist is very difficult if one wants to approach a realistic value. There are no clear sources and even the better sources breakdown for coins other than the rarest dates/mints/types. It also takes a great deal of time and research to establish a broad estimate - and that estimate can be easily skewed by subtle assumptions.

 

There is also the potential problem of commercial bias - estimates by interested parties who sell the same items are less reliable than objective disinterested parties.

 

In general, specialists might have a better grasp of the "universe" of 1857-S quarters than non-specialists.

[World Colonial]

I agree with you which is why is why I am hoping collectors of different series will respond.

 

Using the pillar coinage as an example from my prior post, here is what I use:

 

First, the NGC and PCGS populations. Not particularly useful in this instance because of the preference for ungraded coins elsewhere and the lower price level versus US coins;

 

Second, the frequency I have seen these coins for sale in auctions, eBay and dealer websites over the last 15 years or so;

 

Third, their inclusion in name collections such as Patterson, Rudman and Huntington (ANS collection);

 

Fourth, plate coins in Gilboy.

 

Fifth, my assumptions of a (very) low mintage, level of travel and limited (If not non-existent) local collecting) at the time.

 

From the combination of these factors - especially #3 and #4 I conclude that Peru pillar and Bolivia pillar minors are either scarcer or much scarcer than Gilboy claims, though I have no idea how many exist and in what grades.

 

The fact that Patterson's collection of approximately 6000 pillars (most low grade) contains so few high quality Peru, Bolivia and Guatemala minors is the best indication to me of their scarcity because with most coinage, world class collections invariably are representative of what is potentially available to be bought. His collection included a handful of Guatemala and Peru I have not seen but none from Bolivia.

 

Also, if Gilboy's claims were accurate, he should have been able to find better examples for plate coins. The 1753 Peru real he lists as "common" with 1000+ in VF yet his plate coin is holed.

 

 

[BillJones]

Draped bust half dimes: Aside from the 1802 and 1805, survival for MS-60+ seems too high and doesn't sufficiently account for census duplicates. Don't remember the date but seems hard to believe any could have as many as 60.

 

I have collected these coins since the 1970s. A couple of comments.

 

First you might not agree with their definition of "MS-60" or 61 or even 62. Because of "grade-flation" some of the AU-55 and 58 coins have migrated to the MS ranks. These coins can also be bears to grade because many of them are so poorly struck.

 

Second the coin with an estimated population of 60 is the 1800 Draped Bust, Heraldic Eagle half dime. That coin is the most common date that might come well struck and in Mint State. I know that in Walter Breen's time he said that there were about 20 or so Mint State 1800 half dimes. Breen's numbers were notoriously too low in many cases. He mostly knew about the coins that sold in the big New York City auctions (e.g. New Netherlands and Stacks') and ignored the rest.

 

The coins that are on the market at any one point in time, including the big auctions, are only the tip of the ice berg. Quite often there are many other coins sitting in collections that might not see the light of day for years. Therefore the guesses as to the number of coins in a give grade are just that. And in case there are more high grade coins in existence that what you see offered for sale.

 

It was thought for years that there were no 1805 half dimes in Mint State, but there is one, and it's in their estimates. I say one at a FUN show a couple of years ago, and yes, it was a Mint State example.

 

[World Colonial]

With US coins, my assumption is that most coins like a better draped bust half dime should now be in an NGC or PCGS holder (primarily) because of the value and the increasing problem with counterfeits. This is a general statement and I know some (many?) collectors still prefer raw coins.

 

In a prior post, I estimated that the 1756 and 1761 Peru half reals might have as many as two dozen MS eligible specimens each. Today, the combined count for each date is eight and I suspect no duplicates. If my estimate is reasonable, I can see the 1800 half dime having 60 because I consider it likely the series is (a lot) more common for a variety of reasons. Same applies to Mexico.

 

I agree with your comments on grading. Of the pillars I own, maybe two (from more than a dozen graded 60+) are what I would consider a no question uncirculated from the details on the strike. I don't believe anyone really knows because in most instances there aren't enough examples to examine.

 

The other thing I noticed in Coin Facts is that the proportion of MS and total survivors seems too high. One (or maybe a few) capped bust half dimes were listed with 600 estimated out of maybe 5000. I don't consider this series remotely scarce in high grade but unless hoards exist, don't believe this proportion is accurate and find it hard to believe there are more than the concurrently dated capped bust halves.

[RWB]

Surprisingly large quantities of early US coins reside in collections outside the USA. Several years ago I examined three English collections that had nice runs of pre-Civil War copper, silver and gold.

 

For many Enlightenment Europeans, the "American Experiment" was novel, interesting and a common topic of political and practical conversation. A country without royal portraits was very unusual and a great conversation subject. The same applied to out decimal monetary system.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

Surprisingly large quantities of early US coins reside in collections outside the USA. Several years ago I examined three English collections that had nice runs of pre-Civil War copper, silver and gold.

 

For many Enlightenment Europeans, the "American Experiment" was novel, interesting and a common topic of political and practical conversation. A country without royal portraits was very unusual and a great conversation subject. The same applied to out decimal monetary system.

 

Large quantities reside in the U.S. also, that have never been sent to a TPG or 4PG, or seen by the majority of collectors or Dealers. These collections are rarely sold, much less publicly made known. I have seen many Amish and Mennonite holdings. These holdings are a very enjoyable pleasure to view and talk about. I have always considered it a privilege.

[RWB]

"We see only the ocean on which we sail and not that beneath our keel."

--- Ahmed ibn Majid

 

[World Colonial]

Surprisingly large quantities of early US coins reside in collections outside the USA. Several years ago I examined three English collections that had nice runs of pre-Civil War copper, silver and gold.

 

For many Enlightenment Europeans, the "American Experiment" was novel, interesting and a common topic of political and practical conversation. A country without royal portraits was very unusual and a great conversation subject. The same applied to out decimal monetary system.

 

These collections must have disproportionately been put together a long time ago. I have seen occasional comments here and on PCGS implying or even claiming that foreign collectors are or will be buying US coins but if they have or do, there isn't any reason to believe it will be substantial because of the chasm in the price level. I have read claims that Japanese buy pre-1933 proof gold and can see it for "investing" purposes but consider it an exception.

 

I occasionally see earlier US coinage in foreign auctions (on Sixbid) ungraded but not much of it.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

"We see only the ocean on which we sail and not that beneath our keel."

--- Ahmed ibn Majid

 

Yes. Saladin. I know no enemy; I know only a man with a different vision.

[World Colonial]

Large quantities reside in the U.S. also, that have never been sent to a TPG or 4PG, or seen by the majority of collectors or Dealers. These collections are rarely sold, much less publicly made known. I have seen many Amish and Mennonite holdings. These holdings are a very enjoyable pleasure to view and talk about. I have always considered it a privilege.

 

My step grandmother's family had an extensive collection which I saw once at age 10 in 1975. She was from an old line affluent family. She was born in 1906 and I believe they (as in her parents and grandparents) accumulated most of out it out of pocket change. I didn't see any gold or silver dollars - presumably due to the face value - but it included all other denominations and most types by the hundreds, in Whitman folders and boxes with 2/X cardboard holders (the ones you staple). .

 

I remember half cents and large cents (including a 1794). She gave me an 1803 VG or so large cent which I later traded. It didn't have flowing hair or draped bust coinage but included Capped Bust halves, half dimes and dimes, seated half dimes and dimes, Barber nickels and dimes, 3CS, 3CN, , FE cents, IHC, Mercury dimes, SLQ, WLH, wheat cents, silver Washington quarters and Franklin halves. Each of these in multiple Whitman folders or by the hundreds. I assume it did not have any of the rarest "key" dates but it probably had at least some of the more common most popular ones, like the 14-d cent and 16-d dime. None of the coins were in high grade (as in MS). My recollection is that the grades ranged from VG to XF.

 

 

[BillJones]

"We see only the ocean on which we sail and not that beneath our keel."

--- Ahmed ibn Majid

 

Yes. Saladin. I know no enemy; I know only a man with a different vision.

 

That sounds like a good way to end up six feet under, especially when the "different vision" your demise.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

"We see only the ocean on which we sail and not that beneath our keel."

--- Ahmed ibn Majid

 

Yes. Saladin. I know no enemy; I know only a man with a different vision.

 

That sounds like a good way to end up six feet under, especially when the "different vision" your demise.

 

Maybe. But I would would not make that judgment until having read history and his part in same.

Don't let the name prejudge the wisdom of a person.....or what he actually meant.

[bourse28]

Estimating coin survival on US Coins is very difficult.

 

I have no problem with their estimates. They have a very expert management and staff. Obviously certain issues can be difficult especially when considering both certified and raw coins.

 

I used to try to plug in this data into my spreadsheet, but soon realized I would go nuts doing this for every coin I own.

 

For many world coin issues, like early 20th century world gold this can be even more difficult.

 

Like with any estimate, one has to evaluate the experience and reliability of the source.

[World Colonial]

Do you have an opinion on the series I specifically listed?

 

For example, 6000-8000 capped bust halves for the late 1820's to 1830's dates? They have got to be kidding. I would expect 1% survive at minimum or in the vicinity of 50,000 for each date, though I have no idea where they are now. None of these coins are remotely scarce except as die varieties or "grade rare". I make this assumption based upon my understanding that they were stored by banks in large quantities and I have never heard of being melted in recent times, intentionally anyway. Even in 1979-1980, they would have been worth more than melt.

 

For the IHC, there must be more of them than CBH, even if the survival rate is lower.

 

Which coins have you looked ta where. based upon your experience, the estimates are reasonable to you?