Undervalued coins/coin series 3 3

[cladking]

6 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Look at the TPG data.  4,000+ 1971-D Kennedy's and thousands for many, many other dates.  Seriously, do you really believe this is most of the supply in this quality?  Who do you think owns most of these coins?  Is it really mostly non-collectors buying it from coin TV shows?

Possibly.  It's not that such a large percentage has been sent in as it is that a large percentage of what's left will never be sent in because they are corroding.  

The percentage of high grade coins in sets sold from TV shows will be small and many of these will have been degraded from poor storage.  

 

There are some hoards of moderns but most of these hoards are a few dozen coins or less so they will not person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point prices like when there are huge hoards.  Every time the price of the '82-NMM dimes creeps up a little there is extensive dishoarding and the price down.  This won't happen with 1971-D halves.  At least not in MS-67.  This coin comes remarkably nice so if anyone tried to get a lot of MS-66's I suppose a few hundred isn't out of the question.  

Every date and mint mark is different.  But there are no massive hoards.  Nobody had access to enough coins to search and most of the best coins came from mint sets.  I've watched the distribution and movements on mint sets for many years.  I especially paid attention to buyers and wholesalers.   

[cladking]

4 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

None that I can identify in advance, especially where it is financially meaningful.  Back in 2004, I thought South Africa Union and ZAR were and I was correct but could never buy in volume.  I made good money but it wasn't material as an "investment".

Most US coins are dependent upon the broader market.  I don't consider any series meaningfully "undervalued" where it makes any financial difference.  No series to my knowledge has overtaken another in 45+ years since I have been a collector, or even prior.  Noticeable movement in specific dates though.

As for world and ancients, someone can luck out like I did but the demand for most is too shallow to have any predictable pricing.

It should be noted that WC doesn't consider an increase from $2 to $100 "financially meaningful".  I suppose he would be right if you had only one such coin.   

[World Colonial]

1 minute ago, cladking said:

Possibly.  It's not that such a large percentage has been sent in as it is that a large percentage of what's left will never be sent in because they are corroding.  

My assumption is the TPG data represents a low to very low fraction of what currently exists in this quality.  There is limited "positive selection bias" for the highest TPG grades but decreasing with the price level.  I hold the same opinion for the overwhelming majority of low priced coinage.  How much will ever be submitted and when is another thing altogether.  

7 minutes ago, cladking said:

Every date and mint mark is different.  But there are no massive hoards.  Nobody had access to enough coins to search and most of the best coins came from mint sets.  I've watched the distribution and movements on mint sets for many years.  I especially paid attention to buyers and wholesalers.   

I don't believe there are massive hoards either.  But I do believe that more of these coins are out there than is evident in your posts and more will be in higher quality than you seem to believe.  By higher quality, not referring to large numbers of what is currently an MS-67 or MS-68 but 66.

[World Colonial]

9 minutes ago, cladking said:

It should be noted that WC doesn't consider an increase from $2 to $100 "financially meaningful".  I suppose he would be right if you had only one such coin.   

No, I do not.  

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, cladking said:

I believe this collapse is caused by two primary factors.  One is that prices have increased substantially.  It was one thing to buy a 1971 proof  set for $2.10 but it's entirely different to pay $32 for a 2021 half a century later. 

I dunno....off the top of my head, this former economist is going to say that the price level is about 6x what it was in 1971.  So that $2 cost in today's $$$ is probably $12-$15.  Some increase, but not as much.

Incomes have gone up, too.

[Henri Charriere]

[Thank you, gentlemen!  My own choice would be the stone money of Yap, but I would imagine there is very little demand for these unwieldy objects, that take two to carry, beyond a money museum like the Smithsonian -- or perhaps Ripley's Believe It Or Not.]  😉