Undervalued coins/coin series 3 3

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/1/2020 at 7:22 PM, World Colonial said:

I don't know what most of these coins cost now without looking it up but it's an example where the probability is at least 95% that most of this coinage will go nowhere financially....Most Barber coinage in circulated grades (including fine) isn't considered particularly attractive.  Circulated coinage in general increasingly appears out of favor (and has been) because an increasing proportion of the collector base would rather buy higher quality coinage.  It isn't particularly common but isn't scarce either,

Going over some of the threads ATS a while back, it seemed that alot of the old coin types that the Baby Boomers collected in the 1950's and 1960's -- those are being sold, and there are no buyers.  

The "big" coins in size -- Morgans (very much so) and Saints (less so, given the cost of gold) -- seem to have held up better from a collecting and interest POV.  But smaller coins (pennies and nickles aside, it seems) have lost some relative interest.

The days of getting a Whitman book....filling it up...then maybe starting over with higher-quality (today that means graded) coins....not sure that is happening to the extent of decades ago.  As someone who used to do it, I'm going to guess....NO.

Whitman probably knows for sure given that they sell the actual books. 

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

Going forward unless the collector base increases noticeably, these common series are more likely to lose (relative) value than gain it.

What's interesting is that if you go back and read coin articles from 5 or 10 or 15 years ago (as I've done), you see some of the more well-known dealers and commentators saying that collectibles are dirt cheap.  And you keep seeing those comments.  But the coins just got cheaper.

At SOME POINT, they might be right.

Maybe......

[World Colonial]

3 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Going over some of the threads ATS a while back, it seemed that alot of the old coin types that the Baby Boomers collected in the 1950's and 1960's -- those are being sold, and there are no buyers.  

It's my inference that most of these coins are losing "share of wallet" due to the internet and NCLT.  It was one to collect this coinage when it was mostly done at FV and there wasn't much else readily available.  It's another thing entirely when presumably somewhere in the vicinity of 95% of all coins ever struck can be bought on demand or short notice, except in some arbitrary quality.  Previously, I have commented on key and semi-key date Lincoln cents whose relative preference has mostly collapsed from 1965.  It hasn't happened for the 16-D dime - YET - and probably a few others but it's likely to somewhat, with the lowest grades faring worst.  As an example, an AG-3, G-4, etc 16D @ $400, $700 or more isn't remotely competitive with the alternatives as a collectible in the same price range.

3 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

The "big" coins in size -- Morgans (very much so) and Saints (less so, given the cost of gold) -- seem to have held up better from a collecting and interest POV.  But smaller coins (pennies and nickles aside, it seems) have lost some relative interest.

Generic Morgan dollars and pre-1933 US gold at least must be predominantly owned in quantity by both collectors and "investors" as "investments".

3 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

The days of getting a Whitman book....filling it up...then maybe starting over with higher-quality (today that means graded) coins....not sure that is happening to the extent of decades ago.  As someone who used to do it, I'm going to guess....NO.

Whitman probably knows for sure given that they sell the actual books. 

I'd say the answer is a resounding "no", as this type of collecting isn't competitive as a mass recreational activity anymore.

I don't check often (very intermittently) but I'm fairly confident that much of this coinage is actually worth about the same (outside the metal content) as it was in the late 70's, if offered in a true auction.  A common IHC in G and VG listed for 75c and 95c in my 1977 Red Book.  A dealer can presumably get this price or somewhat more.  I see this type of coin on eBay (in volume) but either predominantly with no bids or much of the price is actually "free shipping".

Back in the late 70's, local dealers claimed to pay 60% of "retail" (one much less) in my area.  For the coins most collect, I doubt the terms are any better and possibly worse now.  That's fine if the buyer is willing to treat it as a consumption expense but most likely won't when the numbers start adding up.

[World Colonial]

4 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

What's interesting is that if you go back and read coin articles from 5 or 10 or 15 years ago (as I've done), you see some of the more well-known dealers and commentators saying that collectibles are dirt cheap.  And you keep seeing those comments.  But the coins just got cheaper.

At SOME POINT, they might be right.

Maybe......

Yes, I have read it too.

The question I always ask is cheap compared to what?

If it's in the context of high priced art, it's totally BS.  Like years ago in the Coin Week article comparing the Brasher doubloon to "Scream".  Supposedly it was "cheap" due to the "history" of this coin, as if anyone would ever buy an expensive painting for this reason.

[GoldFinger1969]

46 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

It's my inference that most of these coins are losing "share of wallet" due to the internet and NCLT.  It was one to collect this coinage when it was mostly done at FV and there wasn't much else readily available.  It's another thing entirely when presumably somewhere in the vicinity of 95% of all coins ever struck can be bought on demand or short notice, except in some arbitrary quality.  Previously, I have commented on key and semi-key date Lincoln cents whose relative preference has mostly collapsed from 1965.  It hasn't happened for the 16-D dime - YET - and probably a few others but it's likely to somewhat, with the lowest grades faring worst.  As an example, an AG-3, G-4, etc 16D @ $400, $700 or more isn't remotely competitive with the alternatives as a collectible in the same price range.

Brilliant points......

51 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Generic Morgan dollars and pre-1933 US gold at least must be predominantly owned in quantity by both collectors and "investors" as "investments".

Yup, must be hundreds of thousands of investment collectors of Saints, to go along with the 500 or so serious/registry collectors (estimate) and 25,000 type collectors (estimate).  Could be more for Morgans though you need lots of them to get the same dollar value as Saints.

58 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

I don't check often (very intermittently) but I'm fairly confident that much of this coinage is actually worth about the same (outside the metal content) as it was in the late 70's, if offered in a true auction.  A common IHC in G and VG listed for 75c and 95c in my 1977 Red Book.  A dealer can presumably get this price or somewhat more.  I see this type of coin on eBay (in volume) but either predominantly with no bids or much of the price is actually "free shipping".  Back in the late 70's, local dealers claimed to pay 60% of "retail" (one much less) in my area.  For the coins most collect, I doubt the terms are any better and possibly worse now.  That's fine if the buyer is willing to treat it as a consumption expense but most likely won't when the numbers start adding up.

Enjoy the coins, whatever they are worth in your retirement or for your heirs is just a bonus in addition to more substantial (hopefully) assets.

[Henri Charriere]

On 7/16/2008 at 11:45 AM, Conder101 said:

Hmmm, there are a lot of people who ARE in Las Vegas. Maybe we should see what they know.

They seem to know where to take their prized possessions: Rick's of PAWN STARS fame.

[RWB]

11 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

you see some of the more well-known dealers and commentators saying that collectibles are dirt cheap.  And you keep seeing those comments.

Yep. Do they include how often they are wrong in their diatribes? If these 'commentators' are correct 50% of the time, then they are no better than guessing or tossing darts. Basic gain equals a successful advisor; 70% is a genie right out of the bottle; and more is the genie who owns his own bottle!

Did you note the real success rate?

[World Colonial]

6 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Yup, must be hundreds of thousands of investment collectors of Saints, to go along with the 500 or so serious/registry collectors (estimate) and 25,000 type collectors (estimate).  Could be more for Morgans though you need lots of them to get the same dollar value as Saints.

Could be as many as several hundred thousand buying generic pre-1933 gold predominantly for financial reasons but I suspect there are also a noticeable number who own this coinage in larger number.  Last I checked, the 1904 DE had a TPG count of about 300,000, the price spreads indicate a very low proportion of duplicates, and there are possibly many more.  The most common Saints have a similar number. 

Your collector population estimate seems a reasonable one., as I presume most of the scarcer dates (like 1932) are owned by those collect the series, though a noticeable minority might also be collected by big budget collectors who don't.  Regardless of the actual number, it's evident that there are only a very low proportion buying the 1904 DE predominantly as a collectible.  Most collectors will never own a coin of similar value their entire life and it's not competitive as a collectible versus the alternatives in the same price range.

Morgans are much cheaper but a similar concept applies.  A common date like the 1881-S potentially has a million UNC and the counts are also hundreds of thousands.  However "popular" the series may be, it's very unlikely more than a very low proportion of the collector base owns it.  There just aren't enough of them.

Similar idea for a coin like the 95-W ASE, higher mintage modern commemoratives and even proof sets.  The latter have declining mintages but collectors either often own it in multiple or it's likely there are still a noticeable proportion of non-collectors/casual collectors buying it.  More recent silver proof sets have mintages of about 300,000+ which isn't remotely low.

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, RWB said:

Yep. Do they include how often they are wrong in their diatribes? If these 'commentators' are correct 50% of the time, then they are no better than guessing or tossing darts. Basic gain equals a successful advisor; 70% is a genie right out of the bottle; and more is the genie who owns his own bottle! Did you note the real success rate?

I only follow folks who are right like 90% of the time, like those football experts that helped Homer Simpson: 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

Could be as many as several hundred thousand buying generic pre-1933 gold predominantly for financial reasons but I suspect there are also a noticeable number who own this coinage in larger number.  Last I checked, the 1904 DE had a TPG count of about 300,000, the price spreads indicate a very low proportion of duplicates, and there are possibly many more.  The most common Saints have a similar number. 

By price spreads, you mean it doesn't pay to crack-out and resubmit low-MS or AU-graded coins where going up 1 grade won't mean more $$$, right ?

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

Your collector population estimate seems a reasonable one., as I presume most of the scarcer dates (like 1932) are owned by those collect the series, though a noticeable minority might also be collected by big budget collectors who don't.  Regardless of the actual number, it's evident that there are only a very low proportion buying the 1904 DE predominantly as a collectible.  Most collectors will never own a coin of similar value their entire life and it's not competitive as a collectible versus the alternatives in the same price range.

Those numbers came from a column I saw in COINWeek.  I think I linked it earlier in this or another thread.

[World Colonial]

7 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

By price spreads, you mean it doesn't pay to crack-out and resubmit low-MS or AU-graded coins where going up 1 grade won't mean more $$$, right ?

Correct, all the way up to at least MS-62.

7 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Those numbers came from a column I saw in COINWeek.  I think I linked it earlier in this or another thread.

I have not seen the article.  I have looked at the NGC and PCGS population data occasionally directly.  Once the count gets beyond 10,000 for any gold coin, I'm dubious most of it is owned as a collectible.  If it is, it is probably "impulse" buying where it occurs.  However, "impulse" buying doesn't explain the ability to absorb 300,000 1904 DE or any number close to it.  There aren't anywhere near that many collectors who can both afford and want the coin as a collectible.

[80s Kid]

I've only been collecting for a few years but this is a topic I find interesting (price trends and appreciation or lack thereof). 

One site I came across a year or two ago attempts to track US rare coin values since 1950 is https://www.us-coin-values-advisor.com/

It's a little annoying to navigate but I do find the info intriguing. I'm not saying the info should be taken as gospel but it somewhat implies that key dates are your best bet if you're looking for price appreciation. 

Some coins have more info than others but there's still a lot of data. Although I don't necessarily agree with all of the recommendations, I do think there is some merit around the key dates vs common track record and future potential. I use the term key dates a bit loosely but my collecting has a bias toward the tougher dates of US Coinage.

Barber Halves have been my primary focus over the past year and is part of the reason I started reading this thread. I think the supply/demand profile is potentially good for future appreciation, however, this is basically an educated "hunch" and no more. I genuinely like the series and the history behind it. I've been looking for a 1914 Barber Half Proof for a while but have yet to come across one that I like. I just find it fascinating that only 380 were made and one can still be had for a price that's not in the stratosphere (IMO). The background about R. Lawson Miles Jr. hoarding 1914 and 1915 Proofs is interesting and makes finding an attractive example of the coin even more difficult (his secretary allegedly cleaned all of the hoarded proofs with silver polish).

Anyway, I have no affiliation with the site or owner. I also think less attention has been paid toward running the site compared to when I first stumbled upon it. Regardless, I do think it's worth a visit if you're interested in researching historical values of US rare coins. The site even attempts to break out historical prices by different grades of each year and mint mark.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/30/2021 at 7:43 AM, World Colonial said:

I have not seen the article.  I have looked at the NGC and PCGS population data occasionally directly.  Once the count gets beyond 10,000 for any gold coin, I'm dubious most of it is owned as a collectible.  If it is, it is probably "impulse" buying where it occurs.  However, "impulse" buying doesn't explain the ability to absorb 300,000 1904 DE or any number close to it.  There aren't anywhere near that many collectors who can both afford and want the coin as a collectible.

If sold at a discount, maybe dealers melt them for scrap and make a few bucks that way ?

Maybe the coins are held as gold bullion by an ETF or bank ?  I never thought of that as a place for generic Liberty's or Saints.

[GoldFinger1969]

4 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

One site I came across a year or two ago attempts to track US rare coin values since 1950 is https://www.us-coin-values-advisor.com/

I think that site cherrypicks coins and time periods.  Like you said, it's not gospel.  It's better than nothing -- I've used it -- but I wouldn't rely on it for accurate pricing.  

I'd read a thread here, at CU, or at CT to get a feel for price trends on a particular coin or series.  Or check actual sales prices in the last 5-15 years at HA.

4 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

Barber Halves have been my primary focus over the past year and is part of the reason I started reading this thread. I think the supply/demand profile is potentially good for future appreciation, however, this is basically an educated "hunch" and no more. I genuinely like the series and the history behind it. I've been looking for a 1914 Barber Half Proof for a while but have yet to come across one that I like. I just find it fascinating that only 380 were made and one can still be had for a price that's not in the stratosphere (IMO). The background about R. Lawson Miles Jr. hoarding 1914 and 1915 Proofs is interesting and makes finding an attractive example of the coin even more difficult (his secretary allegedly cleaned all of the hoarded proofs with silver polish).

Good luck....my worry with Barber's is that they were popular with the post-WW II and Baby Boomer collectors (of which I am one) but I wonder if today's collectors care.  At least the price is down from what I read from 5 and 15 years ago...so you are hopefully buying cheaper. 

Interesting story on Miles Jr. 

 

Edited April 4, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

22 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

Some coins have more info than others but there's still a lot of data. Although I don't necessarily agree with all of the recommendations, I do think there is some merit around the key dates vs common track record and future potential. I use the term key dates a bit loosely but my collecting has a bias toward the tougher dates of US Coinage.

Barber Halves have been my primary focus over the past year and is part of the reason I started reading this thread. I think the supply/demand profile is potentially good for future appreciation, however, this is basically an educated "hunch" and no more. I genuinely like the series and the history behind it. I've been looking for a 1914 Barber Half Proof for a while but have yet to come across one that I like. I just find it fascinating that only 380 were made and one can still be had for a price that's not in the stratosphere (IMO). The background about R. Lawson Miles Jr. hoarding 1914 and 1915 Proofs is interesting and makes finding an attractive example of the coin even more difficult (his secretary allegedly cleaned all of the hoarded proofs with silver polish).

Generically, the most widely collected US key dates are way overpriced for the scarcity.  20th century key dates are disproportionately common and not even close to being rare.  It's also my inference that the coins you consider to be tougher dates I would consider common or very common.

Why do you believe the Barber half has good price potential?

The Barber half is not common but it isn't even close to really being scarce.  It's in the middle where nicer examples are somewhat harder to find while concurrently the series doesn't really have that high of a collector preference.

It's a series that is too expensive for the vast majority of collectors.  I'd consider it a better collectible value in higher (but not the highest) grades but concurrently, there are a lot of coins in a similar price range with better collectible credentials.

Barber half proofs aren't really scarce for the demand either, not unless someone assumes it's going to increase noticeably.  The mintages are "low" but then, there is nothing unusual about it for a US proof of this era.  Most are bought as type coins or as an impulse purchase since there aren't many who try to collect it as a series.  Most also aren't really that nice while the nicer ones are already quite expensive.

Assessing financial potential is a guess, especially when trying to narrow it down to a single series like this one.   It's not like common Morgan dollars or pre-1933 US gold where any noticeable increase in spot price has a direct impact on the price.

I'd rate it as "fairly valued" currently but see no reason why it will appreciate noticeably, unless much or most of the US coin price level rises too.  It's not like collectors really like it that much.

[World Colonial]

18 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Good luck....my worry with Barber's is that they were popular with the post-WW II and Baby Boomer collectors (of which I am one) but I wonder if today's collectors care.  At least the price is down from what I read from 5 and 15 years ago...so you are hopefully buying cheaper. 

Interesting story on Miles Jr. 

 

I don't believe it has anything to do with collector turnover.  The better explanation for why it was "popular" with the post-WWII generation is because there wasn't much else available to easily buy at the time.  If the internet had been around at the time, it would almost certainly have been a lot less "popular" which is why I believe it will lose some or much of its current preference later.

I don't pay attention to this series particularly but suspect it will lose "share of wallet" (somewhat) to world and ancient coinage which is enough at the margin to at minimum keep it from increasing noticeably unless the US price level increases noticeably too.  Unlike the more common 20th century US coinage, it's too expensive to directly compete against most (world) NCLT so don't think this will be much of a factor.

[World Colonial]

21 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

If sold at a discount, maybe dealers melt them for scrap and make a few bucks that way ?

Maybe the coins are held as gold bullion by an ETF or bank ?  I never thought of that as a place for generic Liberty's or Saints.

I doubt many (proportionately) have been melted for scrap.  Mostly, I infer it's collectors buying it as a bullion substitute, including by those who don't otherwise buy coins in this price range.  I don't buy any US but have considered and may eventually buy this coinage for the same reason.  I don't own it now.

The exception to my above comments are the dates with huge populations such as the 1904DE and a few Saints.  With hundreds of thousands already graded and no reason to believe many duplicates, I don't believe there are anywhere near enough collectors buying it for any reason.

[zadok]

wc's observations on the liberty head (barber) series pretty much rite on as far as collectors concerned (almost a stepchild of us coinage)...just a few bits n scraps to consider, its true not a lot of series for average collector to collect in 20th cent coinage; mercs, roosevelts, washingtons, jeffersons, lincolns, franklins fairly easy to complete n fill those blue folders in circ grades....both dansco n whitman made albums for the barbers n there were still low grade barbers to be found in change as late as the '50s so putting together a next logical step if u had finished the other series...a bit of an increase of interest in the series after the formation of the barber coin collectors society (bccs) several hundred members...but as for rarity its still possible to complete the series (sans '94-s dime) without too much difficulty, diff is trying to match them up, the barber keys n semi-keys comparable to the liberty walking keys in circ grades as to prices n scarcity....relatively stable series as for price appreciation, very little impact as far as bullion increases go....

totally agree with wc on his take on saints being bullion substitute for some investors, i have one collector friend who buys one every month n has done so for the past 4-5 years, so i guess u could say his 50-60 saints have become a mini-hoard now...

[GoldFinger1969]

5 hours ago, World Colonial said:

Generically, the most widely collected US key dates are way overpriced for the scarcity.  20th century key dates are disproportionately common and not even close to being rare. 

Can you give us an example or a few examples ?  Thanks ! 

5 hours ago, World Colonial said:

I don't believe it has anything to do with collector turnover.  The better explanation for why it was "popular" with the post-WWII generation is because there wasn't much else available to easily buy at the time.  If the internet had been around at the time, it would almost certainly have been a lot less "popular" which is why I believe it will lose some or much of its current preference later.

Interesting...what coins do you think would have been popular after WW II if the internet had been around then ?

Edited April 5, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

31 minutes ago, zadok said:

but as for rarity its still possible to complete the series (sans '94-s dime) without too much difficulty, diff is trying to match them up, the barber keys n semi-keys comparable to the liberty walking keys in circ grades as to prices n scarcity....relatively stable series as for price appreciation, very little impact as far as bullion increases go....

Personally, I don't consider any of the Barber halves as a key date because the difference in scarcity is much narrower than other series from this point forward. The other denominations,. yes.

It's also a series that seems to be (or is) harder to complete in mid to higher circulated grades than MS which is what most collectors normally buy for a series of this scarcity.  I know I can buy the entire series in nice enough UNC now (yes, literally in one day) but doing so in "original" VF or XF almost certainly not.  It would take some looking to do that. 

The series is too scarce and expensive for a large collector base of moderate means and but not scarce or interesting enough to  more than a very low number of larger budget more affluent buyers, those who buy higher quality more expensive coins.  It's in "no man's" land.

The problem financially for this series is that with around 70 coins, a VF set is around $20K to $30K, an XF around $30K to $40k, and then approaching or exceeding six figures for MS depending upon the quality.  This is a "collector" coin, not bought hardly at all for "investment".  This is a really steep price to collect as a series when frankly, far more interesting coins can be bought for a lot less, whether as singles or a shorter series.  There just aren't many who find it interesting enough now to do it and if anyone has even one reason why it's noticeably going to change later. I would really like to hear it.

I started collecting in 1975 and to my knowledge, the series relative preference is essentially or exactly the same now as it was then.  I'd rank it behind Liberty Seated and ahead of Franklin halves for this denomination and doubt it's passed any series in another denomination since then either.  To my knowledge, it's lost noticeable ground versus Capped Bust halves due to die variety collecting.  

As for the proofs, there may be up to 100 collecting the series but I doubt more.  If so, this probably leaves somewhere in the vicinity of 10,000 to 20,000 for the type collector and impulse buyer.  An individual date may be somewhat scarcer, but it's not really relevant to most buyers because they don't care which one they buy.   They are looking for a nice one, probably CAM or DCAM in a grade or 64 or better. The same pattern is evident in Liberty Seated proofs.  It isn't like the 1936 WLH (a far more common coin) where a relatively large base is actively looking  for this specific date.

[World Colonial]

17 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Can you give us an example or a few examples ?  Thanks ! 

Basically every single one from Lincoln cents to Indian Head half eagles in the 20th century.  Specific examples?  09-S VDB cent 1918-D overdate (it's a die variety), 1916-D dime, 1916 SLQ,.  The Barber key dates (excluding the 1913 LHN and 1894-S dime which I presume almost no collector considers necessary for a "complete" series) are also very expensive. 1885 and 1886 nickels, 1895-O dime, 1896-S and 1901-S quarters.  The latter coin is ridiculously overpriced in the lowest grades.  If it were practically any other, it would be considered "dreck".

1907 High Relief Saint is overpriced as a collectible but it's my inference as we discussed before that it's bought by many bigger budget buyers for financial reasons as well.  It's an "investor" coin.  Same goes for the 1893-S Morgan dollar.

25 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Interesting...what coins do you think would have been popular after WW II if the internet had been around then ?

I presume first from the countries of their national origin which would have been mostly Europe at the time.  

The primary benefit a series like the Barber half and most other US have is that most collectors have a demonstrated preference for coins of their home country.  That's why US collectors overwhelmingly prefer US coins and others prefer theirs, even in the internet age when it's much easier to buy coins from anywhere.

With a US series, it also has a financial advantage because it's a lot more liquid with far more predictable demand.  But I still believe that at the margin, collectors are going to choose to buy something else (world and ancients) they would or could not have bought before.  Strictly as a collectible, there are far more interesting coins for the same or even (a lot) less money.  This is even more true of the common US key dates which are hopelessly uncompetitive as a collectible.

[GoldFinger1969]

9 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

I presume first from the countries of their national origin which would have been mostly Europe at the time.  The primary benefit a series like the Barber half and most other US have is that most collectors have a demonstrated preference for coins of their home country.  That's why US collectors overwhelmingly prefer US coins and others prefer theirs, even in the internet age when it's much easier to buy coins from anywhere.

True...and yet....we are seeing many U.S. collectors (including veterans) moving to foreign/ancient coins.  Maybe it was just a coin "arbitrage" play as the overseas coins were "cheap" relative to where U.S. coins were 15 years ago, let alone 5-10 years ago.

Edited April 5, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

54 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Basically every single one from Lincoln cents to Indian Head half eagles in the 20th century.  Specific examples?  09-S VDB cent 1918-D overdate (it's a die variety), 1916-D dime, 1916 SLQ,.  The Barber key dates (excluding the 1913 LHN and 1894-S dime which I presume almost no collector considers necessary for a "complete" series) are also very expensive. 1885 and 1886 nickels, 1895-O dime, 1896-S and 1901-S quarters.  The latter coin is ridiculously overpriced in the lowest grades.  If it were practically any other, it would be considered "dreck".  1907 High Relief Saint is overpriced as a collectible but it's my inference as we discussed before that it's bought by many bigger budget buyers for financial reasons as well.  It's an "investor" coin.  Same goes for the 1893-S Morgan dollar.

Just casually checked a few of the smaller coins prices in AU58 from NGC's price guide....seems that many coins DOUBLED in price from like 2005-10 but have been flat/down since.  The drops could be larger than what I saw on the chart, given past research I've done.

Edited April 5, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, World Colonial said:

With hundreds of thousands already graded and no reason to believe many duplicates, I don't believe there are anywhere near enough collectors buying it for any reason.

I'm going to do some work on the ETFs, CEFs, and CB's as holders of double eagles.

[World Colonial]

3 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

True...and yet....we are seeing many U.S. collectors (including veterans) moving to foreign/ancient coins.  Maybe it was just a coin "arbitrage" play as the overseas coins were "cheap" relative to where U.S. coins were 15 years ago, let alone 5-10 years ago.

My inference is it's more of a cultural thing.  Not exactly the same but a similar reason why people prefer music or their own cuisine.  This is when the coin is bought primarily for non-financial reasons.

To a very limited extent, I believe there is some "arbitrage" (for lack of a better term) but coins aren't commodities.  There are more affluent collectors with a Latin Heritage now versus before and I believe this accounts for the noticeable increase in this coinage now.

Concurrently I also believe that more than a few have unrealistic and misplaced financial expectations.  The more desirable coinage is too scarce but concurrently not desirable enough where a sufficiently critical scale of collectors will be able to collect it to replicate anything close to the US price level, no matter how long they wait.  A very low number of the highest profile coinage maybe, but otherwise no.

This is something which I believe most overlook.  They compare the relative scarcity, see that the coins are so much cheaper, and then think that the sky is the limit.  Reality is not that simple, as there is usually at least some logic for relative price differences.

With practically any US series, if you have the money, you have a realistic chance of completing it because the coins aren't really scarce, only "grade rare" or as a variety or similar specialization.

With many world sets especially the most preferred from Latin America, the coins don't exist at all in any supply, maybe not at all in "acceptable" quality but even if so, not where many can buy it.  The much lower price level makes finding a coin of equivalent scarcity a lot harder to find and buy because the lower price level doesn't give the owner much of a motivation to sell it and it's not worth a dealers effort to go out and find it, not unless you are willing to pay noticeable multiples of "market value" which almost certainly makes it a financially losing proposition.

What this means from a practical standpoint is that a handful or very low number buy the good stuff and everyone else is "locked out" or relegated to buying the "left overs".  It isn't appealing to hardly anyone which is why few will likely attempt it.

[World Colonial]

5 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Just casually checked a few of the smaller coins prices in AU58 from NGC's price guide....seem that many coins DOUBLED in price from like 2005-10 but have been flat/down since.  The drops could be larger than what I saw on the chart, given past research I've done.

Sounds about right.

But if you look longer term back to the 1960's at the peak of collecting out of circulation, I think you'll see that the relative preference has declined noticeably or collapsed.  That's what I saw with Key date Lincoln cents, other then the 1955 DDO.

[Henri Charriere]

On 7/21/2008 at 10:50 PM, World Colonial said:

By my standards no US series as a whole is "undervalued". There are only specialties or pockets of individual coins that I consider to meet this criteria.

 

There have been more posts than I can count where one coin or another is stated as "scarce" but they are almost invariably easy to find just by checking Heritage. And these supposedly scarce coins costs multiples or many multiples of much scarcer world issues that are also still in demand. The best values today are not in US coins but in select foreign issues.

As true today as the day you had written this nearly 13 years ago...

[World Colonial]

16 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

As true today as the day you had written this nearly 13 years ago...

Since I wrote the earlier posts in this thread (including this one), my thinking has evolved somewhat in the sense that I believe I understand the collector behavior underlying the price structure a lot better.

Not picking on Barber halves though it may seem like it, as i only used it as an example since someone mentioned it first.  What I invariably see though is that someone likes or collects a series, they think others should or will also, and therefore, it will become wroth more or a lot more.

This isn't how reality actually works because it does not align with collector motivation.  Most US series (including the Barber half) are both too common and lack the collector appeal where enough collectors will "materially" bid up the price over other currently comparably priced coinage.  Almost no collectors collect in a vacuum where they will blindly ignore the price of competing alternatives where this will happen.

It has happened with the highest quality coinage (generally represented by the TPG label) and limited supply specialization) but that's generic to (mostly) US collecting and made possible by as few as one or two buyers who do ignore the alternatives. 

The evidence better demonstrates that it's never going to happen with a more common coin or series unless something (anything) changes the underlying collector preference to increase it's appeal.  In well over a decade posting on coin forums and prior to that also reading many coin articles, I have yet to read even one believable reason supporting why it's going to happen for any common coin or series, not even one.  To my knowledge, it also hasn't happened even once with any US series.  It may have happened elsewhere but I doubt it where there is any scale, for the same reason.

Edited April 5, 2021 by World Colonial

[Henri Charriere]

9 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Since I wrote the earlier posts in this thread (including this one), my thinking has evolved somewhat in the sense that I believe I understand the collector behavior underlying the price structure a lot better.

Not picking on Barber halves though it may seem like it, as i only used it as an example since someone mentioned it first.  What I invariably see though is that someone likes or collects a series, they think others should or will also, and therefore, it will become wroth more or a lot more.

This isn't how reality actually works because it does not align with collector motivation.  Most US series (including the Barber half) are both too common and lack the collector appeal where enough collectors will "materially" bid up the price over other currently comparably priced coinage.  Almost no collectors collect in a vacuum where they will blindly ignore the price of competing alternatives where this will happen.

It has happened with the highest quality coinage (generally represented by the TPG label) and limited supply specialization) but that's generic to (mostly) US collecting and made possible by as few as one or two buyers who do ignore the alternatives. 

The evidence better demonstrates that it's never going to happen with a more common coin or series unless something (anything) changes the underlying collector preference to increase it's appeal.  In well over a decade posting on coin forums and prior to that also reading many coin articles, I have yet to read even one believable reason supporting why it's going to happen for any common coin or series, not even one.  To my knowledge, it also hasn't happened even once with any US series.  It may have happened elsewhere but I doubt it where there is any scale, for the same reason.

I agree.

[GoldFinger1969]

46 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Not picking on Barber halves though it may seem like it, as i only used it as an example since someone mentioned it first.  What I invariably see though is that someone likes or collects a series, they think others should or will also, and therefore, it will become wroth more or a lot more.  This isn't how reality actually works because it does not align with collector motivation.  Most US series (including the Barber half) are both too common and lack the collector appeal where enough collectors will "materially" bid up the price over other currently comparably priced coinage.  Almost no collectors collect in a vacuum where they will blindly ignore the price of competing alternatives where this will happen. It has happened with the highest quality coinage (generally represented by the TPG label) and limited supply specialization) but that's generic to (mostly) US collecting and made possible by as few as one or two buyers who do ignore the alternatives. 

I have to plead ignorance on any details on collecting Barbers, Lincoln Pennies, Buffalo or other nickles, Walking or Standing Coins, Franklins, etc.  Aside from Saints and Morgans, I couldn't guess the population census for any year, the totals, or the Gem and Superb Gem (if any) numbers, either.

I mean, for Morgans....I know that many of them have millions outstanding but you can often get them for a small premium or small multiple of the underlying silver price.  Ditto for Saints and gold.  But for some of the small value U.S. coins I listed above, there is little/no metal value in the coins so even paying $10 or $25 is a huge multiple over the metallic value and/or the face value....let alone for more expensive, higher-graded coins that cost $50 or $100 or $1,000 -- or gulp, even more.  And to a lesser extent, the same for the coins above with some (silver) value.

Did I read they minted 600 MILLION of that 1909-S Lincoln Penny ?  Wow.....

Ultimately, supply and demand determine prices.  And if we assume no "hoards" hit U.S. small face value coins -- unlike what happened years/decades ago with Morgans and Saints (and apparently continue to dribble out today) -- then we can assume if prices are struggling, it's a function of demand.  Which is why I think if any coins grab wallet share going forward -- maybe from some Instagram star plugging Saints or whatever -- it will be larger coins like Saints or Morgans or other large precious metals coins.

If I'm wrong and they lose numismatic (or gold/silver go down) value ?  I am OK with that as I enjoy them as art pieces, history pieces, bullion hedges, etc.  If someone gets the same values from the small U.S. coins (except bullion hedges), great.  But I'm not sure if those coins will be as attractive to the next generation of U.S. collectors (however many there are), let alone foreigners (have they ever collected our coins aside from silver or gold ones ?).

Edited April 5, 2021 by GoldFinger1969