Undervalued coins/coin series 3 3

[jason888]

I would say as a Modern Underappreciated one, the Kennedy half daollars. this series cannot last much longer, can it?

[Oldtrader3]

IMHO, gold eagles are undervalued because you can buy AU58-MS62 coins for about $100.00 over gold spot prices.

[World Colonial]

I have commented on many posts related to the potential financial performance of modern US coins.

 

So far, no one has provided any reasonable basis outside of die varieties and conditional rarities which supports why this would happen. For Kennedy halves, we can also add rainbow toned coins since I have seen these sell for what I would describe as already exhorbitant prices but no doubt those who own them have a different opinion.

 

Below is a format I have used in prior posts to assess a coin series financial potential. Here is my assessment for the Kennedy Half.

 

Factor #1: Origin: Positive (US coins)

Factor #2: Size and metallic composition: Positive/Negative

Factor #3: Popularity of the coin series: Positive

Factor #4: Current And Potential Supply: Negative

Factor #5: The Economic Scarcity Factor: Negative

Factor #6: The Substitution Factor: Negative

Factor #7: The Impact of Demographics: Positive

Factor #8: Future Exchange Value of the US Dollar: Neutral

Factor #9: The US Mint and the US Congress: Neutral (its really not a circulating coin any longer)

 

[cladking]

I have commented on many posts related to the potential financial performance of modern US coins.

 

So far, no one has provided any reasonable basis outside of die varieties and conditional rarities which supports why this would happen. For Kennedy halves, we can also add rainbow toned coins since I have seen these sell for what I would describe as already exhorbitant prices but no doubt those who own them have a different opinion.

 

Below is a format I have used in prior posts to assess a coin series financial potential. Here is my assessment for the Kennedy Half.

 

Factor #1: Origin: Positive (US coins)

Factor #2: Size and metallic composition: Positive/Negative

Factor #3: Popularity of the coin series: Positive

Factor #4: Current And Potential Supply: Negative

Factor #5: The Economic Scarcity Factor: Negative

Factor #6: The Substitution Factor: Negative

Factor #7: The Impact of Demographics: Positive

Factor #8: Future Exchange Value of the US Dollar: Neutral

Factor #9: The US Mint and the US Congress: Neutral (its really not a circulating coin any longer)

 

 

You can design endless charts, graphs and lists but ultimately prices of collectibles are determined largely by demand and most all the moderns have very scant demand. You claim these coins are all readily available but you fail to put this in any sort of perspective. A near Gem '78-D half dollar isn't even valuable enough to slab and you aren't going to see many of these at Heritage or anywhere else. There are no massive hoards of rolls just waiting for higher prices to hit the market. Indeed, even if such hoards existed there would be very few nice coins in them.

 

So these are available. So what? They are available only because there is so little demand, not because they're common. Many of these moderns are scarcer than something like an XF/ AU bust quarter. The bust coin is available too but it's going to cost a darn sight more than a '78-D half. So long as the demand structure stays the same there will be no change in the price of the '78-D.

 

But is it really reasonable to expect the demand structure to stay the same? Every year the demand for moderns has been growing and in recent years it's accelerating. How long until the 40,000 or so so near gems isn't sufficient to satisfy the demand. Keep in mind this is probably a fairly liberal estimate of the number available and many of these coins simply aren't available to the market at this time and many will be lost or destroyed before they become available.

 

This is less true for the bust coins; if prices soared sufficiently some collectors would give up and sell and some others would simply take their profits. Most of the coins are available at the right price.

 

But it's this "right price" that you neglect to take into consideration. You can find nice near Gem '78-D halfs in dealer iinventory for $1. If he knows what he has he might price it at $4. When was the last time you saw a nice lightly circulated bust coin for this kind of money?

 

The moderns are hardly shoe-ins to go up in price but they have far more room to move than the older coins. And the trends still favor them pretty strongly.

[World Colonial]

Yes, we've had many debates on this topic and we are at a standstill. You are not going to convince me and I am not going to convince you.

 

Your definition of scarcity and mine are completely different. But if you have any evidence that moderns are really scarce outside of die varieties and conditional rarities, you have failed to provide it in any of your prior posts. And if you find the criteria I use to evaluate the financial prospects of these or any other coins unsatisfactory, then by all means provide yours. (And by the way, the purpose of the criteria I use IS to attempt to evaluate demand. Others may have additional criteria or have a different opinion on the impact of the criteria I use.)

 

Also the 40,000 number you cite is an absolutely gargantuan number relative to other coins, even if there are potentially many more collectors out there who might buy them. But as the market pricing structure stands today, I see no evidence that most collectors are going to pay big or substantially larger premiums for these coins when a coin which is slightly less desirable will sell for a fraction of it. That is probably the biggest factor working against them from a fianancial standpoint. If you have any basis to indicate otherwise that this will not be so in the future, I would be interested to know what it is. The strongest one and only real one that I can think of is one of the factors I have already mentioned: demographics (which in case you did not notice, I have already rated as positive for moderns), but this is only one of many factors which will determine what these or any other coins will sell for.

 

As for your comparison of a Bust coin to a modern, I see no validity in it and I question how many other collectors would either. Most collectors are unlikely to be persuaded to find a modern coin more appealing than a Bust simply because they cannot find the latter in a higher grade for $4.

 

Its true that some or maybe many of these coins will or might appreciate from the very low bases that exist today, but given their prices it would take a large accumulation of coins to amount to any real money unless someone hits the lottery with one or a few of them (and these would still almost certainly be conditional rarities or die varieties). And by real money, I am talking even a few thousand dollars.

 

These coins might do better than many or most classics percentage wise, but I'll stick with my comments that selective world coins will beat both of them. When I buy the South African coins I collect, I do not need to wait years to sell them for a lot more. I can turn them over in one month which is about the time it takes to receive the coin, get it graded and listed on eBay. I just sold an 1892 NGC XF-45 South Africa three pence today for $522 (about 8% less after fees) for which my cost was $220 and I can give you many more recent examples. I cannot do that with hundreds of them because there are not enough of them, but I can make enough on one occasionally to make the same money that could be made with dozens of low priced moderns without the endless administrative time that would be required to sell so many low priced coins.

[cladking]

Yes, we've had many debates on this topic and we are at a standstill. You are not going to convince me and I am not going to convince you.

 

Your definition of scarcity and mine are completely different. But if you have any evidence that moderns are really scarce outside of die varieties and conditional rarities, you have failed to provide it in any of your prior posts. And if you find the criteria I use to evaluate the financial prospects of these or any other coins unsatisfactory, then by all means provide yours. (And by the way, the purpose of the criteria I use IS to attempt to evaluate demand. Others may have additional criteria or have a different opinion on the impact of the criteria I use.)

 

Also the 40,000 number you cite is an absolutely gargantuan number relative to other coins, even if there are potentially many more collectors out there who might buy them. But as the market pricing structure stands today, I see no evidence that most collectors are going to pay big or substantially larger premiums for these coins when a coin which is slightly less desirable will sell for a fraction of it. That is probably the biggest factor working against them from a fianancial standpoint. If you have any basis to indicate otherwise that this will not be so in the future, I would be interested to know what it is. The strongest one and only real one that I can think of is one of the factors I have already mentioned: demographics (which in case you did not notice, I have already rated as positive for moderns), but this is only one of many factors which will determine what these or any other coins will sell for.

 

As for your comparison of a Bust coin to a modern, I see no validity in it and I question how many other collectors would either. Most collectors are unlikely to be persuaded to find a modern coin more appealing than a Bust simply because they cannot find the latter in a higher grade for $4.

 

Its true that some or maybe many of these coins will or might appreciate from the very low bases that exist today, but given their prices it would take a large accumulation of coins to amount to any real money unless someone hits the lottery with one or a few of them (and these would still almost certainly be conditional rarities or die varieties). And by real money, I am talking even a few thousand dollars.

 

These coins might do better than many or most classics percentage wise, but I'll stick with my comments that selective world coins will beat both of them. When I buy the South African coins I collect, I do not need to wait years to sell them for a lot more. I can turn them over in one month which is about the time it takes to receive the coin, get it graded and listed on eBay. I just sold an 1892 NGC XF-45 South Africa three pence today for $522 (about 8% less after fees) for which my cost was $220 and I can give you many more recent examples. I cannot do that with hundreds of them because there are not enough of them, but I can make enough on one occasionally to make the same money that could be made with dozens of low priced moderns without the endless administrative time that would be required to sell so many low priced coins.

 

 

Where to start?

 

There are far too many coins with too many different characteristics to list each. You're pigeon holing moderns while in point of fact about the only thing they have in common is that they are base metal. And there are a few which aren't!!! You say the varieties can be scarce as can the high grade but there are numerous cases where high grade can mean Unc or ChUnc. Even XF can be a high grade in a few cases and as time goes by there will be more F and VF coins identified as being tough.

 

I've listed some of these coins numerous times but you persist in implying they don't exist. While US moderns are usually fairly available in Unc even some of these are far tougher than their price might imply. Indeed if they were old US coins with the same availability their price would be many multiples of the current price.

 

I'll grant you that just going out and buying up every 50c or $1 modern is a fool's quest and that it takes some knowledge to know the better coins from the junk but is this any less true for old coins? Can I just go out and spend $220 on any SA coin and be assured of making more than 100% profit? Of course not.

 

A hundred percent profit on a modern can be a waste of time if it's a less expensive one, but then 1000% and 10000% increases are not so unusual for moderns.

 

Stick to what you know. I don't need the competition anyway.

[just-john]

MS65 + 21/2 gold Indians not to many graded over ms65

[World Colonial]

Well, apparently I must have missed your posts where you listed the scarce ones because I do not read all of your posts as you do not with mine.

 

The statements I make in my posts about what someone else may collect are never about the collecting merits of any coin. They are in the context of scarcity or financial performance such as in this thread. I could not care less what anyone else collects.

 

My prior comments to you were in response to yours about my prior post not considering demand when In fact that is exactly what my criteria attempts to do. Whether you or anyone else agrees with my criteria or my conclusions is an entirely different issue but the considerations I raise are valid though it is impossible to predict in advance exactly what will happen.

 

This thread is about the financial performance and potential of various coins or series. If you do not agree with my reasoning that is fine with me, but raising the considerations I do is legitimate. You may think that moderns have a different potential than I do and that is also fine. But since I do not, I will say so as I have on other occasions for other coins and when I do, I will also attempt to explain why as I have done. If you have any interest, I can certainly either post or send you a more comprehensive explanation to explain the criteria I use which will be tailored to the extent possible for the coin or series under evaluation. You or anyone else can then counter-reply. I take no offense to anyone disagreeing with my analytical opinions and see no reason why anyone else should either.

[cladking]

I've never thought anyone should buy collectibles for potential gain and this applies equally to modern coins. I agree that people should collect whatever they like.

 

There are lots of moderns which have done exceedingly well from a financial perspective that are neither high grade nor varieties. Take for example the 1950-E East German 10p. This low value aluminum coin was made in huge numbers. There were enough for everyone in the country to set aside an example. But virtually no one did and virtually none survived inadvertantly.

 

In the old days collectors were sure to set aside a few silver and gold coins every year and then many others survived by mere chance because they were silver or gold and used as backing for paper. They were held by banks or buried in people's yards against hard times. This is the reason that today millions of old bust coins survive in high grade.

 

So how has the '50-E 10p done? In 1986 it listed for $6 in Unc. Generally speaking you couldn't get nearly that sort of money for a low value modern and dealers often would sell something of this sort for a dollar or two. Today this coin lists for $1000. Finding now with the higher price might be easier (I haven't researched it) but if you think this is just some isolated thing you're mistaken. One would also be mistaken to assume that this price can't go higher. Again investing in coins is risky and for all I know this will be a $20 coin in two years, but what I do know for certain is that this coin had a 3 or 400 fold increase while most of the hobby says in unison to avoid moderns. This coin went up because a tiny handfull of collectors decided they wanted the coin and this is what they had to bid to find one. What happens if this tiny handfull turns into dozens? Thousands? Millions?

 

Perhaps there is a great deal of validity to your reasoning and my intention is not to cast doubt on it. I'm merely stating that some of your assumptions are in error. Time has already proven this.

[World Colonial]

I'm not trying to be difficult with you either and sometimes I "shoot from the hip" which I should not do. But keep in mind that though I may be wrong, I actually do have a basis for making the economic claims I make.

 

The examples you use in this last post are correct but since I agree that this is true for world coins, it is impossible for me to argue with you on that point. My comments are made in reference to US modern circulating coinage and though there are exceptions that I am not aware of, what I say is generally true.

 

I can still send or post the analysis I described before. It is complete.

[Oldtrader3]

World Colonial, I think that you and Cladking are saying the same thing, i.e. South African vs. East German coins etc.. Your binary factor list does not include variables such as ability to be promoted, type set importance, absolute rarity, relative affordability, ability to be collectable, desirability, metal content, historical interest and other attributes which drive collector interest and coin price besides just profit potential. Most collectors whom I know, like to think that their coins will be worth more in the future but they are not really as much motivated by profit as by the quest of finding and owning those coins which they desire. This is not the same as profit motive and in fact, has little to do with it. Many coins such as the 1909-SVDB or 1931-S cents are price driven to a large extent by type demand, popularity and ease of promotion, certainly not scarcity.

Edited July 30, 2008 by Oldtrader3

[cladking]

My comments are made in reference to US modern circulating coinage and though there are exceptions that I am not aware of, what I say is generally true.

 

Perhaps we aren't in so much disagreement.

 

I think of world moderns as a sort of indicator for US moderns. It's true that a '50-E 10p is probably far scarcer than any US modern but its demand is likely far lower.

 

No, there aren't any scarce or rare regular issue US moderns and I've never tried to imply there are. Biut there are many dozens with surviving populations under under a million and some are well under a million. While numbers of 20,000 or 100,000, or even 500,000 look huge to classic collectors the fact is that there are millions of new collectors and it's not impossible that such numbers could disappear into collections pretty quickly. Remember in 1964 the '50-D nickel got to $150 in today's money. A 14 year old mint set is not especially tough and the coins aren't especially tough but probably every coin in that set except the cents has a surviving unc population LESS than the '50-D nickel. If it were as popular as the nickel was in 1964 this relatively boring modern set could easily approach $2000.

 

I don't believe that will happen but then I don't believe surprises are impossible either. Despite the massive number of new collectors in 1964 there are even more today. Large percentages of those new collectors in 1964 are back and they brought their children and grandchildren with them.

[Coin]

Not gonna even try a series , but I am surprised about nobody listing the 1914/3 Indian head (buffalo) nickel ...it is a little expensive , but compared to the more well known 1918/17..well?

 

heck with it , for a series , I'd say the Roosevelt dimes have almost been frozen in price , except maybe the silver issues due to the bullion market prices . I must also add , I feel as a series , the modern dimes have not really gotten much attention from a collectors standpoint and maybe less from investor's interest . Individually there is just not that much silver in the pre-1964's and what was not melted in the early 1980's is probably still being traded by the bagfull as part of 90% coinage silver . Complete sets can still be had in BU for small money versus complete sets of BU Barbers or Libertys , which are not in circulation .

The Roosevelts have been around since 1946 , so 62 years and still going as a series without any major Obverse/Reverse design changes (besides the mintmark locations and die work) .

Overlooked , maybe , undervalued...hard to speculate on what collectors will consider worth collecting , yet it has longevity , few rarities mintage-wise , and long considered very available , yet the early silver circulation issues have been heading to the smelters for a while.....

If the mint was ordered by federal law to change the well-known dime to something else ....who knows , maybe there would be some potential there? Sure are easy to get now .....think the supply side will keep the prices in check forever?

 

I'm not really good at forecasting the future , which is why I'm picking a series with some of the right things going for it , but probably all the wrong things that would make it a decent candidate for future price increases....I just kinda like the under-dog .

 

10 years ago I would have said the IHC when everyone said they were easily available (except for the keys ), look at them now....thank the maker I put my set together then and had so many hoarded .

 

Over valued ? modern commems in MS/PF 70

[jackson64]

I'm gonna half dodge the question because value is simply proportionate to demand..and that would mean that the values are simply what someone is willing to pay--a thousand for a barely readable 1916-D dime???..why not if someone pays it, that's the value...

 

however if the question was intended to refer to prices versus the mintages--there is no question that the 3CN has super low mintages and is affordable to almost all collectors...3CN hands down

[World Colonial]

Based upon what you have here, I think there has been at least a partial misunderstanding because I did understand you to mean US circulating modern dates and denominations at least some of the time.

 

But since you are referring to world modern coins here, I do agree with you generally though we may still have differences of opinion (yet to be discussed) on specific coins. The positive opinion on world coins that I hold from a financial standpoint applies to all types of coins. The selectivity that I believe needs to be applied is not primarily contingent upon the date of the coin because so many of these coins have low or very low mintages to begin with, even moderns.

 

The East German coin you mention is an interesting one because, though I know nothing of it, I think I can make a few speculative assumptions on why this coin appreciated it as it did. And if what I outline is reasonably true, then the criteria could be used to attempt to identify other coins for anyone who wants to "shoot for the moon" or win a mini-lottery bet.

 

The first attribute that comes to mind is that the coin was issued in a society that did not make it easy for people to save or collect coins at all, given that its offical policy made it a point of honor to virtually eliminate private property rights. Under these circumastances, the opportunity to pay a premium or speculate on future price appreciation was very low. Then the economic system changed.

 

Another one of these was virtually unique to East Germany. The unification in 1989 which I believe potentially had two other effects. The first is that posisbly more collectors in the former West Germany would have collected these issues but this is a bigger guess because some or many probably already did. But the second is that under the new economic system, East Germans now had a substantially increased financial capacity to pay for coins that were always scarce but previously cheap.

 

Another contributing factor was that after unification, the East German coins were demonitized. Demonitazation was also a significant factor in the substantially reduced supply of South Africa Union coins because unlike pre-1965 US silver coinage, they had no use. So it is possible that 1956 coin or others were more available before 1989 but went from common to scarce or scarce to rare soon after due to melting. Given the low prices they fetched, there would have been no market pricing signal for most collectors to use to determine the scarcity of this coin. Only those who had already been collecting them diligently would have been aware of this scarcity.

[World Colonial]

World Colonial, I think that you and Cladking are saying the same thing, i.e. South African vs. East German coins etc.. Your binary factor list does not include variables such as ability to be promoted, type set importance, absolute rarity, relative affordability, ability to be collectable, desirability, metal content, historical interest and other attributes which drive collector interest and coin price besides just profit potential. Most collectors whom I know, like to think that their coins will be worth more in the future but they are not really as much motivated by profit as by the quest of finding and owning those coins which they desire. This is not the same as profit motive and in fact, has little to do with it. Many coins such as the 1909-SVDB or 1931-S cents are price driven to a large extent by type demand, popularity and ease of promotion, certainly not scarcity.

 

Actually you are correct and incorrect and I am aware of every consideration you have listed. But the factors I use do include what you have in your post, it just is not evident because you did not have any detail behind what I included which I have previously written.

 

Promoting of coins I stick under the "Country of Origin". This is not evident in my term but what you state here is the "investment infrastructure" of the country of origin and you will get no argument from me that this is not only a factor but a decisive one. It is more apparent in the United States than any other country that I know of though I see it in a few others.

 

I specifically mentioned metal content and this is so obvious a factor to me that it is not even worth debating.

 

Type set importance, historical interest and so forth is covered under the "Popularity of the Series".

 

Relative affordability is covered under "The Economic Scarcity Factor" and "The Substitution Factor".

 

Absolute rarity is covered under "Supply and Potential Supply". So is ability to be collected though scarcity and availability are not identical.

 

I also know that not all collectors are buying coins with the idea of SPECIFICALLY buying a coin to sell it for more and this is not incorporated into my criteria at all because it is intended to be entirely economic. The purpose of my criteria is to make a reasonable objective assessment of the financial propects of any coin or series. To the extent that a collector does not care whether they do or do not lose money, they will find no benefit from it.

 

The key to me is to seperate the collecting aspects from the financial ones or at least that is what I try to do. I believe that all of the coins I buy have good financial prospects (unless the coin market as a whole tanks) though it was not with this specifically in mind that I selected them at the beginning. Currently, I have been mostly buying coins that I can sell for more right now.

 

I have no criticism of collectors who think differently from this primarily utilitarian perspective. But I think that far too many collectors do not adequately consider the financial aspects of the "investment" they have made, just people too often do not with their financial decisions generally. Maybe they do or do not have regrets later, I do not know. But if they do, the bad economic decision has already been made and it may be to late to fix it.

 

 

 

 

 

[cladking]

There's a far simpler explanation for why the E German '50-E

10p should be so high priced. The Germans had a very long

history of using gold and silver coin and people did save some

of these. But after WW II silver was discontiued entirely in

East Germany and didn't come back as a debased coin in W

Germany until 1951. This debased coin was shunned as well

because of the low silver content. These now list for prices as

high as $4,250. This caused not only these coins to be ig-

nored but the base metal coins as well. Despite a mintage in

the millions the 1954-G cu/ ni 1M lists for $1900. In 1986 this

coin listed for $12. Again, you could have picked it up for far

less.

 

Modern coins have not been saved because when silver and gold

were removed from the coinage people lost interest. In almost

every case there were two other reasons as well. First that with-

out the restraint imposed by issuing "good metal" mintages soared

and second because of harder metal and higher mintages, quality

usually plummeted. People saw no point in saving high mintage

common coins that looked like junk made of bad metal. This did

not happen only in iron curtain countries but it happened all over

the world including the United States. When was the last time

you saw a BU roll of clad dimes or quarters from the early '70's?

Such coins simply aren't out there. You can find many dozens of

rolls of silver quarters for every roll of eagle reverse clad quarters.

Maybe hundreds. When you do find the clads they'll "always" be

one of a very few dates.

 

This applies to almost very country in the world; the silver is removed,

mintages soar, and despite weak demand the base metal coins are

more valuable.

 

It doesn't apply to every single modern and there are hundreds of mo-

derns which are distressingly common. Again I'd nevver suggest that

anyone even spends the cost of a lottery ticket to invest in a coin (or

a lottery ticket) but if you're talking about price gains there aren't any

higher than in moderns. This is not only going to continue, but if the

past is any indication, it's going to accelerate.

 

History always repeats itself.

 

[dean1345]

I think it could possibly be the Classic Head Half Cent Series (1809-1835). They all have very low mintage and are still can be acquired for a fraction of the Early Large Cent Series.

 

Dean

[MK Ultra]

While I'm sure there have been other similar threads in the past 11.5 years, I found this one.  Curious as to how much things have changed/stayed the same.  As I'm new to the hobby, I don't have the frame of reference.

[cladking]

Most of the coin market was peaking about the time of this thread.  Very scarce and high grade US classics are higher in most instances.  Less expensive ($1000 to $5000) classics have peaked since.  Foreign coins are (overall) still going higher very slowly).  The base metal moderns that had soared have stabilized at significantly lower levels but more and more (undiscovered) issues are exploding higher.  

There is still good strength in the bread and butter starter coins like VG buffalo nickel but prices are mostly lower.  US moderns graded are lower.  Raw US moderns tend to be lower but the prices might be masking the fact that mint sets are usually tarnished now.  There are some pockets of strength and interest in nice Gems is far higher. This is hard to see because generally these coins are MS-65 and MS-66 and such coins weren't graded 12 years ago and they aren't graded now.  

Overall the market for US and world coins is strong but demand won't support some coins at traditional levels.  World coin demand is more dependent on the issuing country than in 2008.  Some countries are very strong and some are about the same.  US collectors constitute most of the demand for a country like Pakistan.  

[SilverGigolo]

Barber coins, Fine or better, look undervalued to me. 

[leeg]

When compared to the high's of the 1980's:  early commemoratives are vastly undervalued. They all have their own "story" to tell. Good and Bad.

[GoldFinger1969]

20 hours ago, SilverGigolo said:

Barber coins, Fine or better, look undervalued to me. 

Aren't they down bigtime from a few years ago ?

[GoldFinger1969]

Wow, a 12-year old thread....wonder if some of the posts have aged well. 

I'll put in a plug for my favorites, the Saint-Gaudens DE's.  Specifically, I think a great value is to buy the common years in MS62-63 grade as a substitute for bullion.  Maybe even the AU58's.

You get exposure to gold...you pay a miniscule premium to gold to get a coin with a great historical and numismatic history....and it's affordable as an investment. 

Hey...who's to say some tech billionaire or social media trendsetter with a few million followers doesn't pull a Kim Kardashian and say he's buying something like generic Saints....gets tens of thousands of his/her follwowers to buy the coins over the next few weeks or months ?  You could see a stampede literally overnight.

Could happen, folks.  Not saying it will or predicting it will, but all you need is one afficionado or gold bug among a guy or gal with an active Twitter or Instagram account and.....POW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Edited April 1, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Wow, a 12-year old thread....wonder if some of the posts have aged well. 

I'll put in a plug for my favorites, the Saint-Gaudens DE's.  Specifically, I think a great value is to buy the common years in MS62-63 grade as a substitute for bullion.  Maybe even the AU58's.

You get exposure to gold...you pay a miniscule premium to gold to get a coin with a great historical and numismatic history....and it's affordable as an investment. 

Hey...who's to say some tech billionaire or social media trendsetter with a few million followers doesn't pull a Kim Kardashian and say he's buying something like generic Saints....gets tens of thousands of his/her follwowers to buy the coins over the next few weeks or months ?  You could see a stampede literally overnight.

Could happen, folks.  Not saying it will or predicting it will, but all you need is one afficionado or gold bug among a guy or gal with an active Twitter or Instagram account and.....POW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Common Saints are bullion coins, just like the common dates in the predecessor series.  US collectors may not like to hear this but that's how much scarcer but less preferred "world" gold has been priced for decades.

Going by the TPG data and unless the collector base is a noticeable multiple of my estimate, the vast majority of these coins are owned by bullion stackers and not collectors.  Some collectors will buy it for the reason you gave (as a hybrid "investment") but the overwhelming majority of the base cannot remotely afford it and won't ever own a coin in this price range for the rest of their life.

As for the prior posts, I already know without even reading all of it again that most are simply what the poster either likes or already owns.  95%+ of such claims are going nowhere financially unless the entire coin price level moves up noticeably.  I'll take the "under" on that outcome.

[World Colonial]

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Aren't they down bigtime from a few years ago ?

This is an example of what I was referring to in my last post.  I don't know what most of these coins cost now without looking it up but it's an example where the probability is at least 95% that most of this coinage will go nowhere financially.

Most Barber coinage in circulated grades (including fine) isn't considered particularly attractive.  Circulated coinage in general increasingly appears out of favor (and has been) because an increasing proportion of the collector base would rather buy higher quality coinage.  It isn't particularly common but isn't scarce either,

I consider common nice Barber quarters in MS-64 at a cost of $250 to somewhat more to represent good collectible values (among the best in US coinage IMO) but I wouldn't buy it with the expectation of making any money. 

Even if I thought the foreseeable future was positive for the US price level (which I don't and it has nothing to do with COVID-19), I wouldn't buy hardly any US circulated coinage with the expectation of appreciation.  Maybe from the series up to capped bust, a limited number of the scarcer or rarer dates from later series, and a few common but widely collected key dates.

[World Colonial]

8 hours ago, leeg said:

When compared to the high's of the 1980's:  early commemoratives are vastly undervalued. They all have their own "story" to tell. Good and Bad.

The 1980's high was the result of the TPG bubble.  It was a one-shot deal and unlike the financial bubble (which is almost certainly bursting now), it's never coming back unless someone intentionally corners the market.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/1/2020 at 7:28 PM, World Colonial said:

The 1980's high was the result of the TPG bubble.  It was a one-shot deal and unlike the financial bubble (which is almost certainly bursting now), it's never coming back unless someone intentionally corners the market.

These commemoratives -- unlike some modern commemoratives that are mostly bullion silver or gold and NOT made by the U.S. Mint -- were struck by the Mint.  They REALLY took off in the past bubbles, I'm not sure why.  

Was it because they were less expensive than Morgans or Saints and the % rise was thus bigger -- and the fall, too ?  Did dealers push them because the mark-ups (profit margins) were higher and there was less competition than with the stuff that everybody (including telemarketers) were selling ?

[World Colonial]

6 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

These commemoratives -- unlike some modern commemoratives that are mostly bullion silver or gold and NOT made by the U.S. Mint -- were struck by the Mint.  They REALLY took off in the past bubbles, I'm not sure why.  

Was it because they were less expensive than Morgans or Saints and the % rise was thus bigger -- and the fall, too ?  Did dealers push them because the mark-ups (profit margins) were higher and there was less competition than with the stuff that everybody (including telemarketers) were selling ?

My recollection is that this series was both promoted by telemarketers and targeted for inclusion in the LLP we previously discussed.  My inference is that many people (collector and non-collector both) bought it at the time by being told the coins were "scarce" due to the "low" mintage.  However, I don't know this definitively.

It's evident that most buyers are buying individual coins and not even attempting to complete the series.  There is also a lot of this with the common "key dates" such as the 09-S VDB, as I'd be really surprised if there are anywhere close to enough wheat cent collectors who can afford it.

Going forward unless the collector base increases noticeably, these common series are more likely to lose (relative) value than gain it.

[RWB]

On 4/1/2020 at 5:02 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

.....social media trendsetter with a few million followers doesn't pull a Kim Kardashian and say he's buying something like generic Saints....

Is that before or after botox injections?