• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

World Colonial

Member: Seasoned Veteran
  • Posts

    5,447
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    25

Posts posted by World Colonial

  1. On 7/24/2023 at 2:32 PM, cladking said:

    There is insufficient supply for a "mass market.

    It is just this simple.  The last of the available supply is disappearing through sale or tarnish and the demand continues to grow year after year.  The current situation is unsustainable.  

    Yes, it's unsustainable because of all your premises which have nothing to do with how virtually anyone collects, right?

    In some instances, you don't even collect with this imaginary behavior you attribute to imaginary collectors and fictional dealers.

  2. On 7/24/2023 at 2:29 PM, cladking said:

    I love anecdotal evidence but this is more akin to hearsay until such time as they provide some sort of corroboration that these are unlikely to be mint set rolls.  

    Talking about a double standard.

    Their claims are hearsay but yours aren't.?

    What difference does it make whether it's a mint set or not?  No one claimed it's one of your "gems" or even stated a specific quality.  Not that hardly anyone cares about it aside from you.

    The two posters I identified aren't ignorant.  

  3. On 7/24/2023 at 2:22 PM, cladking said:

    I've never really understood the motivation of most mint set buyers.

    Well, what can I tell you.  I don't understand how you can possibly come to your conclusions when your belief directly contradicts how collectors behave and the non-collector's perception in so many ways.

    The US Mint claims it sold millions of these sets in the past and still sells hundreds of thousands now.  Since the sales volume has collapsed from prior decades, I assume that most buyers are what we'd consider "casual" collectors, but I don't know that definitively.  The fact is, they bought it, so I assume they wanted it.

    Regardless, given the numbers previously sold, even with abnormally high attrition, the number and quality surviving by any sensible standard cannot be considered low.  It's only "low" by comingling it with your inflated future demand.  Demand is demand.  i disagree with you on future demand too, b ut that's something else entirely.

  4. On 7/24/2023 at 2:15 PM, cladking said:

     Why would you assume I have no experience after I said I do?  

    I never said, not in this thread or in any prior post.

    I have told you that your experience isn't representative of the probable supply because it almost certainly isn't.  If you understood statistics, you'd know why I am telling you this.

    Why do you disregard independently verifiable evidence?

  5. On 7/24/2023 at 2:09 PM, cladking said:

    If there are so many of these coins then where are they?  You don't find old US or Swiss in high circ grades.  Most of those you do find come from change hauled home by tourists.  

    Same response I received from the South African collectors I know.  They also assumed if they didn't see it, it didn't exist.

    Where were all the other (world) coins in the TPG data now before it was graded?  It wasn't in your local coin shop either.

    Tourists who can afford to travel internationally don't waste their time selling their FX change to their local dealer in any meaningful number.  Depending upon the coin, it's most likely in the home country or one which borders it.  That's where it was issued and mostly circulated.

  6. On 7/24/2023 at 2:07 PM, cladking said:

    Of course I know.   It is just a bunch of simple proportions.   I watched the coins disappear from circulation over many years.  The very first was the '69-P quarter which approached 0% in AU and better by mid 1981.  The data suggest it is disappearing in F right now but I can't get a statistically significant sample to show it.  Thee are that few left and most are pretty chewed up.  Of course there are always stragglers.  These coins come from childhood piggy banks or mint sets.  They come from old washing machines in laundromats though most of these are badly corroded.  No matter how few coins sit in change jars there is always a finite chance that a coin can just go from one change jar to the next.  

    No, you don't know with the accuracy you imply.  No one can possibly know that.  Read up on statistics.  I didn't invent it.

    On 7/24/2023 at 2:07 PM, cladking said:

    Change jars are simply irrelevant because the number of coins that sit in one place for more than 20 years is insignificant.  I believe most coins that sit so long are in the safes of stores which are intended as emergency change though this is probably less common in the era of credit cards.  Very few quarters sit anywhere ever for more than 3 years.  This is how long it takes the FED warehouses to rotate their stocks of coins.  The Fed usually has around a billion quarters where most of them are brand new and minted in the lasty three years.  These coins can sit for several years but rarely do.  

    Like I told you before, "change jar" can be literal, or not.

    The SDB vault we're discussing in this thread, it's a "change jar".  Two posters in this thread told you they see this coinage in rolls regularly.  You ask me why I discount personal experience?  Why do you do it?

  7. On 7/24/2023 at 1:49 PM, cladking said:

    How many 1909 to 1964 cent collections have to come in with no later dates before you admit there are few modern collections?   

    Why do you discount experience.   As a rule I don't care as much what people think they know and am far more interested in their experience.   

    How do you know what comes in outside your local coin shop?  You're in one or a few coin shops regularly (at most) and only in one at a particular point in time.  What do you not understand about that?

    Define collector.  Are you telling me hardly any of those who bought Mint sets are collectors?  How would you know that?  

    I don't discount experience.  That's not the real question. The real question, why do you disregard independently verifiable evidence in favor of your unrepresentative personal experience? 

    You do it, all the time.  Your personal experience is not more representative or accurate than independently verifiable data, like industry sales records (which refute your "hate" claim) and the TPG data.  Why would I believe your experience over independently verifiable evidence?  Why would anyone do that?

    Look at the availability of much older coinage (no, not 1933-1964 US coinage or 20th century world coinage) with much lower mintages with a much lower probability of survival.  You have no knowledge of it.

  8. On 7/24/2023 at 1:44 PM, cladking said:

    This isn't possible.  There were no very high grades left by 1999 when states quarter collectors began removing a few coins. Mostly they got nice F's and a few VF's.  This is why if you could find a statistically significant sample in circulation for '69-D quarters the high end would show significant attenuation.  Without nice F's in circulation there are no coins to create nice VG's.  The nice coins are pretty much gone and what exists are heavily worn culls.   Some common dates can still be found in nice VF.  

    Have you never heard of "sampling"?  This is a scientific means of discovering reality and the coinfidence level can even be computed.  I have enough experience to not care about R ^ 2 but your suggestion I can't know is wholly unfounded.  

    Remember what I told you in the Swiss "moderns" thread"?

    You do not understand statistics.  No one who understands it would ever make the claims you do.

    You can't sample anything which is removed from the population.  You assume this hasn't happened or it's not a material factor when you have no basis for it whatsoever.

    Obviously, there were no "high quality" coins for the older dates in circulation in 1999 after 34 years.  You have no idea how many coins are in collections or "change jars".  You assume the coinage doesn't exist due to your "hate" claim which is wrong.

     

  9. On 7/24/2023 at 11:26 AM, cladking said:

    Of course.  And if someone came up with a couple bags of nice pristine '09-S VDB's today it would crash the market.  

    You're comparing apples and oranges.   If someone made a coin dealer buy a couple boxes of 2009 dimes they would probably end up in the till or hauled to the bank. 

    Supply is supply.  What I am telling you applies to most coins.

  10. On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

     

    1909-S VDB cents flow onto the market at a relatively steady rate and enjoy a relatively steady demand.  When demand goes up more coins become available because of the new higher price.  The price is the interplay between supply and demand but there are no longer any original buyers sitting on rolls and bags.  Their hoards have long since been dispersed.  

    If 50,000 exist and the average holding period is 10 years, that's 100 coins sold per week.  Adjust for whatever number you like.  That's not a huge volume being sold within a few days or even per month.  Yes, I know it's more than most coins.  

    On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

    Modern markets are very very different not only because of the tiny supply but the fact that there aren't old collections of early clad or most other moderns. 

    Once again assuming to know what no one can possibly know.

    On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

    '69-D quarters don't come into coin shops except as mint sets.  If and when the price goes up there will not be an increase in supply to contain it.  If and when demand increases it will have very little impact on the number of coins coming into coin shops.  Indeed, dealers still aren't even trying to stock such coins as the Ikes which have already increased substantially because they still have no customers. 

    Once again, ignoring the internet.  No one needs to buy this type of coin in a coin shop.

    On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

    A few hoards, even in aggregate, are not going to make much difference in a market so far out of balance.  

    It's not out of balance, except to someone who projects an unsubstantiated increase in demand and exaggerates the scarcity.

    Do some math.  A SDB vault of coinage is a large number.  I don't know how large or how full this one is, but the 5X10 I have at my bank will hold somewhere in the vicinity of 10,000 coins in rolls.  A vault, potentially hundreds of thousands, maybe over 1MM.  That's not a small number cumulatively when a noticeable proportion is "high quality" and the market is so limited.  This is for one person, even if an outlier.

  11. On 7/23/2023 at 11:08 PM, cladking said:

    No time now to address these new points but just quickly if I remember those 23 rolls they were mint set rolls. 

    The listing didn't state whether it came from mint sets or not.  You're just assuming it under your assumption that this was the only coinage saved.

    On 7/23/2023 at 11:08 PM, cladking said:

    You don't find 1969-D quarters in the mountain of moderns.  When you do they are mint sets.  Most 1969 mint sets were destroyed long ago and today most of the survivors are tarnished.  This is just the way it is.  And if you think you can just get these in circulation think again; most of them are long gone and the survivors are worn out culls.  

     

    No, it's not going to be found in circulating change, something you have claimed is supposedly unexpected, even for coins dated up to 58 years old.

    I agree most Mint sets have been broken up or aren't what it was at issuance.  The original supply was also huge.  Go look at the US Mint sales records.  If 5% to 10% still exist more or less as struck, it's not a small number, except to you.

    Ultimately like the rest of our disagreements, it's based upon your inaccurate premises, when you aren't exaggerating something which you do all the time.

    Your "scarcity" claims are based upon three primary inaccurate assumptions.  First, you claim to know what no one can possibly know.  If someone pulled this coinage from circulation (in large numbers) which coin forum members alone could have done, you are in no position to know it.  You act as if what you don't see doesn't exist.  Second, you do this because you also assume this coinage is "hated", which is simply your code word that others have to pay the price you think it should be worth to prove you wrong.  Third, then when you don't see it as often as you think you should in the quality you expect, you claim it's "scarce" or "rare" under the assumption that your personal experience is representative when it isn't.

    You claim your experience is representative but then totally disregard @VKurtB and @zadok  They told you flat out they see this coinage (US moderns) in rolls regularly.  Doesn't mean it's your "gems" or MS-66 quality and they didn't specify the coin, but they aren't ignorant where they would mistakenly identify it when it's actually circulated junk either.

    On 7/23/2023 at 11:08 PM, cladking said:

     

    This isn't 1970 any longer.  '69-D quarters are cheap due to lack of demand.  They are scarcer for all practical purposes than '50-D nickels and are far more widely dispersed.  Nice attractive coins are difficult in all grades and many of these are ugly and poorly made.  

    No, the coins aren't scarce.  The graded populations aren't that high (for a US 20th century coin) but not low either.  These coins are easy to buy, any day of the week, on Ebay.  It's only "scarce" compared to even more common circulating coinage.

  12. On 7/23/2023 at 9:17 PM, cladking said:

    I don't know.   It's hard to believe anyone would store garbage even if it were available cheap and they had plenty of storage.  I had minimum standards around MS-64 or coins I describe as "gemmy".  These have done so badly and Wondercoin started so late it's hard to believe he has anything below MS-66 or so.  There's no way he could accumulate large quantities by simply buying and selling mint sets.  Screening coins takes time and a lot of sets to accumulate quantities.  Nobody can be a true market maker with the kinds of quantities actually available which is why nobody has really tried.  

    The whole point of citing him as an example is that it only takes a handful or low number of collectors to hoard any coin to noticeably or drastically distort the supply.

    It's happened regularly with noticeably older coinage.  You just assume it doesn't (hardly ever) happen for this coinage when there is no reason to believe it.  "Hoard" doesn't have to be a SDB vault, It can and is a much larger number of people saving smaller accumulations, like that 23 roll listing of 69-D "BU" quarters on eBay I linked for you in a prior thread.

  13. On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

    Counting varieties and stuff you can hardly get more than about ten of everything into a large safety deposit box.  ...One of everything if they are already slabbed. 

    He wasn't referring to his "core" collection.  It was everything else.

    He never specifically stated whether it was slabbed or not.  He inferred he didn't remember what he had, meaning that it isn't graded and needed to be searched, nor is there a reason to expect it. 

    Even if all the coins he has are MS-66 or better (which he didn't say and I didn't claim), grading large volumes of post 1933 US coinage would be self-defeating.  The TPG population data doesn't indicate it either, unless you want to believe he has an abnormal pct. of these coins in a holder.  I don't believe this as his post didn't indicate or imply it.

    On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

    After four years of selling I might still have more than he does.  Sure he has a lot more world class coins than I do because he knows the market and has opportunity to buy the best but anyone counting on me or Wondercoin to service all the future collectors is miscalculating very very badly. 

    I'm sure you think it's miscalculation.  At least we can agree on that.

    On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

    There are bigger hoarders than I who have been setting these aside for decades but even altogether we couldn't support a mass market for longer than a few days. 

    Where is the evidence even any US common classic (1916-1964 plus Lincoln cents to 1909) sells in the numbers you imply within a few days, outside of rolls or as "junk silver"?  No collector needs a roll for their collection.

    On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

    I seriously doubt there is the equivalent of a bag or two of most dates in aggregate along with an average of a few hundred nice Gem coins.  These coins were just too widely disseminated to be gathered up again.  I chased them largely by zip code because the Gems tended to go to the same place but otherwise you just had to go through mint sets which is what I did.  

    I know you don't, because you assume your experience is representative when it isn't for the reasons I gave you.

    For "gems", I have no idea how many exist under your criteria as it's exactly that, yours.  I'll stick with my prediction that at least 95% are an R-1 with 1250+ in MS-66.

    On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

    To you it seems like there are a lot of moderns because you see mountains of them everywhere.  What you are missing is that many moderns just aren't in these mountains.  Indian mint sets and BU rolls of clads aren't in the mountain.  People simply couldn't afford to set aside $10 for a roll of quarters nobody would ever want and were considered "common junk".  

    No, my opinion has nothing to do with what you wrote.

    I'd never assume my observations are representative of the supply, absent corroborating evidence.  By corroborating, not the equally unrepresentative observations of the few collectors any of us know.

    It's due to what I told you in the Swiss "moderns" thread.

    You don't have any idea of the availability of much older coins (no, not 1933-1964 US or earlier common 20th century world coinage).  It's partly evident just in the TPG population data, but you can't be bothered to look it up. 

    I've told you that this alone is much better evidence than what you believe.  Coins which have an infinitesimal probability of survival in "high" quality exist in much larger number than most collectors would expect, but you still think this coinage (US moderns and world "moderns") has the availability from your observations.

  14. On 7/23/2023 at 8:51 PM, cladking said:

    What dates???!!!

    I certainly believe "no customers" but have great doubt about cases full of clad single, rolls, or bags between 1965 and 1998.  It's hard to believe anyone with this kind of material would attempt to sell them at a local coin show or even at a national show. Anyone who owned such material would know that it is scarce or that there is no market for it.  It's not impossible that someone would foolishly try to sell mint set rolls in such a venue since some of these rolls bring good prices now days but NOT bank rolls.  They simply don't exist.  Most people with mint set rolls wouldn't try selling them at any coin show.  

    Mint set rolls of Ikes might sell at a dealer oriented show and could actually exist.  

    So, when Wonder Coin said he has a SDB vault "full" of 1933 and later US coinage, he doesn't count either?

    Go read one of your "Raw Moderns" threads.  His post is right below one of yours.  He also claimed he knows other dealers and collectors who have a lot of it too.  Yes, including a lot of US moderns. 

    He didn't provide specifics but there is no basis to believe someone like Wonder Coin would store a lot of junk.  He alone potentially has 10,000s of this coinage across most or all dates. at least.  It's not like it takes up that much space.

  15. On 7/23/2023 at 7:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

    I went to FUN 2020 and saw plenty of modern coins and commemoratives.  Out of let's call it 300 dealers, I'd say 20% had some kind of modern coin or commemorative from recent decades.

    I'd call it somewhat less numerous than Morgan dealers, but more than Saint dealers.

    Quite sure quite a bit of NCLT at the shows I attended too.  Plenty of low-priced world coinage also.  I don't bother stopping at US only coin dealers anymore, so can't speak to US moderns.

  16. On 7/23/2023 at 4:41 PM, cladking said:

    Up until 1995 kids and older people entering the hobby were told moderns are garbage.  This really isn't much different than your message either but now every new collector doesn't get "the talk" the first time they encounter established collectors.  That moderns are common junk that can never hve any value is obviously misinformation. 

    "Shooting the messenger" because I contradict your exaggerated claims.

    I've never either stated or implied that US moderns or world "moderns" are junk.  You're reading this into my posts because the facts and reasoning I provide contradict you.

    If collectors believe anything like your claims, there is no time like the present for anyone to stop believing it.

    On 7/23/2023 at 4:41 PM, cladking said:

    That you believe these coins will be worth face value in the future as you've already said and verified in this thread is wholly irrelevant to whether or not modern coins are collectible.  

    This is the second time in this thread you have repeated this BS.  I didn't state it in this thread or in any prior reply to your posts, not even once.

    What I have stated multiple times is that I expect practically all of this coinage (post 1933 US) in grades up to MS-66 to sell for less than the grading fee or nominal premiums to silver spot. A lot of it sells for less than the grading fee now.  So, it's hardly a shocking claim.

    Notice I didn't limit it to US moderns?  No, you didn't, because you dislike that I contradict your exaggerated claims.

    On 7/23/2023 at 4:41 PM, cladking said:

    They are what they are and your beliefs and my beliefs are irrelevant and irrelevant to future supply, demand, and price performance.  

    I don't just base my claims on an arbitrary opinion, I base it on how collectors and non-collectors are known to perceive collecting.  

  17. On 7/23/2023 at 1:50 PM, VKurtB said:

    POTENTIALLY?!?!?! Wow!!!!! It's ALREADY QED!

    Well, many of these coins still sell for more than my future claim.

    Aside from a potentially (likely IMO) shrinking collector base for it, I also know it's a loi more common than indicated by the TPG pops.  It's just an unknown how much more will end up in a holder but some of this coinage (yes, including US moderns) already has thousands in the populations.

    I'd estimate at least 95% is actually a Judd R-1 with 1250+ in MS-66, almost always with a noticeable to large multiple.

    Not exactly a great combination for the future price performance.

  18. On 7/23/2023 at 1:48 PM, VKurtB said:

    Bottom line? The coin hobby/business/demographic isn't changing much at all. It hasn't changed much in the last 60 years, and it's not likely to change as much as some people think in the next 60. Yes, that's pretty boring for the generation who has decided they have the right to redefine common words, but it also happens to be the truth.

    This is my opinion too (generally) but not in a position to prove it.  

    Is the ANA or any other organization doing research to confirm it?  

    The result would be of great interest to a lot of collectors and certainly those who make a living in coins.

  19. On 7/23/2023 at 10:59 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

    If all the people who started collecting in the 1940's through 1970's have their sets unloaded it is a big demographic headwind for pricing going forward.

    Yet another reason to expect most US coinage to underperform non-US, with post-1933 US coinage in grades up to MS-66 to potentially sell for less than the grading fee or nominal premiums to silver spot.

    Unless the collector base through the participation rate increases "noticeably", this age group will be replaced by a lower number of collectors from other ethnic groups who will also collect US coinage (exclusively) in lower proportion.

  20. On 7/23/2023 at 1:00 PM, VKurtB said:

    Mostly older guys. The 20's and 30's exist, but they are the unicorns. One unicorn is Kenny Sammut. Part time dealer and full-time School of Business student at Seton Hall in New Joisey. Thing is, he is EXACTLY in tune with the older guys. Same material, same emphasis. The ANA is all about making sure the hobby does NOT change. There is ONE proven path to success, and while that may really bug people, it happens to be true. ANA's "training programs" whether in Exhibit Judging or anything else, is a system designed to ensure that nothing much changes. Consistency over time is the goal.

    I can hardly wait to see other potential replies to this comment.

  21. On 7/23/2023 at 12:30 PM, zadok said:

    ...all u really have to do is go to any large coin show e.g. FUN n walk the floor n look at the dealers inventories on display...virtually no moderns n even less clads n if u want to really check out the prevailing winds try selling the dealers bank rolls of either....

    I agree with your general point, to which I will add a slight clarification.

    If younger collectors aren't attending (large) coin shows or (national) auctions, they have to be buying their coins somewhere else which presumably is almost predominantly online.  I see tons of modern (world) NCLT online and eBay lists a lot of US moderns too.

    Having said this, you are totally correct that to whatever extent younger collectors prefer US moderns (or world "moderns") vs. (somewhat) older collectors, it's not evident in the price level.  It's random noise.

    As a proxy for younger collector, Gen-Z dates to 1997.  This also coincides with the beginning of large(r) scale internet collecting, and in the US, the SQ program which should have had the biggest impact on collector preferences for modern US coinage, if CK's theory is correct which it isn't.  The program was a huge success, but not in "meaningfully" increasing the preference (not "popularity") of US modern coinage and it's entirely due to the coin attributes.

    Today, Gen-Z collectors range up to 26 and YN who started collecting in the US during the SQ program range from around 21 to their late 30's.  Depending upon definition of "collector", there are at least hundreds of thousands in this age bracket.

    It's obvious that most of these collectors can afford to collect at least 95% of US moderns in grades up to MS-66 but they aren't buying it in any meaningful number and the prices prove it.

    So, what are they buying differently (for "material" amounts) vs. prior collectors?

    My inference is (world) NCLT first and to a much lower extent, world coinage second, with most of their budget in this category to "classics".