bernard55

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  • Occupation
    my wife wishes she knew
  • Hobbies
    coding and collecting wine, art, money....
  • Location
    on the move... why stay in one place?

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  1. funny.... I am a programmer and i have been deep into the Ethereum world for quite some time... I've heard just about every argument when it comes to crypto currency... In reading your comments (most/not-all) I would have thought you were a bitcoin maximalist... everything you point out in this series of posts are the same arguments that those that really understand bitcoin make... (I'm not referencing all the nitwits that trade BTC because 99.99% of them but don't understand it). https://medium.com/efficient-frontier/on-austrian-economics-and-bitcoin-15051a28820d
  2. not at all... just pointing out that it aligns with @World Colonial 's gloomy outlook... :-)
  3. on that subject... Read https://www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/principles-for-navigating-big-debt-crises-by-ray-dalio.pdf
  4. and the TPG put the 18M asset in a typical plastic holder... yea, that made a lot of sense...
  5. Outside of motivations and macro issues, I've also been trying to research the 'personality profile' of coin collectors versus trading card collectors. I'm trying to understand if the dramatic growth this last 18 months in cards means that there are just more of them... However it is very difficult to separate the gambler from the collector on the card side... and there seemed to be quite a few gamblers at the National show--the loud cheers for people unwrapping cards and finding something of value was crazy... this is something you would never see at a coin show. Please let me know if you have seen anything written on the subject of personality profiles. I found a few old things such as: https://www.grandrapidscoins.com/blogs/entry/personality-traits-of-coin-collectors#:~:text=Perhaps just like you%2C they,to work long%2C crazy hours. (Coins) "The results of this study indicated that the collector group scored significantly higher in academic achievement than did the noncollector group." Passion, patience, ability to roll with ups and downs, and an awareness of trends https://www.londoncoinmissionviejo.com/traits-of-a-coin-collector (Coins) Coin collectors are considered meticulous, perfectionists, extremely orderly, passionate and quite patient. alludes to a difference in personality of type collectors, vs. bullion vs. error vs. rare https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/3493655/#Comment_3493655 (Cards) - not a study but a great comment a touch of obsessive-compulsive behavior a strong tie to sports control issues - collecting cards sets a very specific attainable goal filling some void cards connect us to our inner-child making friends collectors are competitive (The Registry) idol worship (stars like Nolan Ryan) intelligent and fairly-well adjusted "I think there are some modern card collectors who are dummies. They are more into the gambling aspect of pulling from packs. The real collector gambles, but that is not his main driving force." there has to be a more solid answer for why this bubble didn't bleed over into coins... My gut tells me that it's because cards had the GaryVee factor and there is a tight coupling between sports and gambling... but that is my bias stepping in...
  6. @World Colonial "As "investment", coins are a dead asset." "There is no basis to believe that anyone will perpetually trade coins or a fractional interest as a type of "widget"" Companies like https://www.onlyalt.com/ are doing well with 'custody' and providing their users with the ability to trade with each other. https://www.wiv.io/ is doing 'custody' and secondary marketplace/fractionalization/collateral with high end collectible wines. Masterworks - Learn to Invest in Fine Art is doing it with collectible art. Why not collectible coins? Why does it have to be a dead asset? All of these other collectible markets are enabling liquidity, secondary trading and fractional ownership (with custody). These efforts are breathing life (liquidity) into alternative assets that were previously considered "dead assets". (I also don't deny that these new companies may also be successful due to a bubble... but this bubble may also have created an entire new type of company that leverages non fungible tokens as deeds for physical collectible assets enabling provenance -- not possible before now... ) my interest lies in 'how do we breathe life into the coin collecting market'. I personally love collecting and want to see others find it as interesting as I do... (my bias--i'll try to tone it down) Do you find that it is a prevailing view that most coin collectors (on this and other forums) do not want to breathe life into the market for fear of things like rising prices/bubbles?
  7. Thank you for all your thoughtful replies--additional questions in bold/blue below. In reading your replies and other books/articles on the psychology of collecting: •The psychology of collecting | The National Psychologist •Wayback Machine (archive.org) •Collecting as Luxury Consumption: Effects on Individuals and Households - ScienceDirect would it be OK to summarize the discussion like this: - There are macro economic forces that move both markets (coins and trading cards), micro economic forces (supply/demand of an asset), AND there are also human 'motivations' that move both markets. The human motivational forces are of a lot of interest to me. My gut (but again, i'm biased) tells me that there is a gap in the demographic between the young collector and the older collector in coins AND that 'middle' gap may have been filled on the trading card side by the first motivation (Incentive/Reward) which draws in the other motivating factors (FOMO, Affiliation and Power). My gut also tells me that the coin industry does not have any celebrity endorsers like Resy co-founder Gary Vaynerchuk who speak to their millions of followers on youtube/twitter etc about the industry... This is marketing... cards has a lot of it but coins has almost none... Would a bit of this help the industry? If this assumption holds true (my question to you is--do you agree with the assumption) then in order to make sure this industry continues to grow do we need to ensure our industry (coins) is also participating in businesses such as https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/collectable-offers-fractionalized-ownership-of-valuable-sports-memorabilia/ A separate question -- As I previously mentioned, the last Long Beach show I attended was setup for old white retired men with nothing else to do but to attend a large flea market of coin dealers. The National show however was more like Comicon... If the Coin industry ran these shows better (Virtual and local 'youtube', mobile engagement, contactless checkin, gamification, drive meaningful connections, entertainment, classroom content etc..) would this motivate and build a bigger community (motivation 6) which could draw in the other motivating factors? I'md
  8. @GoldFinger1969 I do agree with all your points and also believe any economist would see cards in a bit of a bubble... I also agree with the sports culture motivations.. but forgive me, I think my comparison between coins / cards muddied up my questions. What forces motivate coin collectors? and do these forces exist across demographics? -- Why do you invest in coins? Why do you believe others invest? Is the coin-collecting industry shrinking, stable or growing and why? I went to the last Long Beach show (right before lockdown) and all the old dealers were telling me about how the show has been shrinking every year. Is that the show or the industry? Why was it hot once but not now? Was there a bubble and if so how did it occur? If we wanted to revitalize the industry what would need to happen?
  9. A lot has changed (or stayed the same) since we’ve had this past discussion… After a year of watching trading card prices go through the roof and coin prices keep up with inflation... I’m still wondering if the motivation of someone to collect/trade coins is different than the motivation to collect and trade collectible cards and if that matters to the long term viability to the industry. I recently (2 weekends ago) attended National Sports Collectors Convention in Chicago and it was on fire… There were thousands of people doing thousands of transactions primarily buying and selling trading cards. There were people from every demographic (age, gender, race, occupation, income level, education level etc..). At the National event, I met people that were quick flippers interested in making a quick buck… I met wall street types who see trading cards as alternative investments… and I met nostalgic types who enjoyed collecting sports cards in the late ’80s and now they are grown up. I asked a few of the resellers about the market and they mostly said that the momentum has been fueled by disposable income, supply & demand, high-profile endorsers, institutional money and the passion for the sports culture. They also said they didn’t see the market letting up given what is happening on the internet with NFT enabled fractional ownership and secondary marketplaces like Top Shots creating a bit of a gambling type atmosphere—which sports types love. I contrast this with many numismatics events where the crowds (and resellers) tend to be in an older/white demographic and wonder about the differences between what motivates people to collect cards versus coins. Afterall, coin collecting has been around for much longer and has worldwide interest. If you study the psychology of collecting there are some base similarities (thrill of the hunt, the history, the emotional driven desire to own an asset, etc..)--but i'm left trying to figure out what motivations are driving the dramatic price increases in cards over coins. So, I have 3 simple questions: What forces motivate coin collectors (as compared to card collectors)? Is the coin-collecting industry shrinking, stable or growing and why? What would cause the industry to be more vibrant? I am trying to put my biased opinion (per last comments in this forum) in check and really understand the psychology here much better.
  10. I think you have to separate a short-term 'billionaire' / PE scenario from a sustainable long-term market scenario. CU/PSA will get a lot of people psyched up to invest in cards, values will go up and then the floor will eventually drop out... if nothing comes behind it the run will be short.. if something does it might continue. Cohen sees CU the same way Zillow and OpenDoor (iBuyers) see mortgage, title insurance etc.. essentially bolt on value to maximize margin and MORE importantly valuation. but to turn the coin market into a growth market... there is a need for an entity that is legit on quantifying price. eBay or a group that consolidates auction data could do that... NGS/PCGS/CDN etc.. are not credible in this capacity because they are not close to the transaction. The eBay/auction companies also have the picture datasets that ML/AI can consume for grading/authenticity/fingerprint purposes. this real time access to market data would normalize the market and that alone would bring alternative investment types into the market. might lower us prices for a while...
  11. there is a great deal that doesn't make sense from an economic perspective in the US right now... TSLA being the easy example of value being driven by circular logic (higher stock, cheaper capital to invest...) these PE guys are masters at hiding sins and maximizing the pain they sell to the next guy before the story implodes... but if you push all the shenanigans to the side - seeing collecting as a good investment helps the industry and can sustain its growth. ...and my personal view is no one I know sees coin collecting as a good 'financial' investment right now (however it's a great investment in time if you enjoy history)...
  12. cards vs. coins both (cards / coins) have a demographic problem however there has been a turn happening for last couple years in cards--this article outlines a bit of it Sports Cards Values Will Explode In Certain Categories. Here's Why. (garyvaynerchuk.com) you can see how other aspects of the sports economy are pulling the markets value chain together (cards being one aspect). my opinion on the reality of coin collecting (and I know from being beat up here in the past that this forum doesn't want to hear this... ) is that it will continue to erode unless people start to see it as an investment. coin collecting (especially ancients) has an opportunity to drive the same alternative investment value but it's within world history and education (a bit like art--now only if I could hang it on my wall...) also interesting is the economic comparison of world collectible coins vs. US collectible coins--in many ways one could argue that the US market is a bubble and this makes the problem above even worse. some think CU is undervalued (more) but this will likely go thru... if it does I doubt Cohen expects to keep PCGS--HGBL might be a nice home.. supply and demand are wonderful concepts... this will be fun to watch.
  13. Can someone explain how this works to me? I see a lot of graded coins on eBay for very inexpensive prices. Here is an example: 1971-S 1C RD Lincoln Memorial Cent-PCGS MS62RD--372-1 https://ebay.us/GcSSK2 for $9 and FREE shipping. The seller has a lot of these low end graded US coins for sale for very inexpensive prices. It normally costs me > $50 to get a coin graded. Who paid to get these low value items graded? What did they pay to get it graded? If the eBay seller purchased this asset already graded, how much do you suspect they paid given they also have to pay ~$3.5+ for postage and still make a little profit? Given how many of these are listed on eBay it appears that either a lot of people are getting stuck with the grading costs or they are getting coins graded for pennies on the dollar (weak pun intended)--both don't make sense to me--so i must be missing something here.
  14. @vkurtb I've heard that from others 'almost everything that could be put in a slab was'--if that was the case NGC/PCGS would be out of biz... and I agree about PA--there is a little shop outside of annville, pa that has an amazing inventory and all of it just walked into their store (some great late 1700's dollars)