bernard55

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  • Occupation
    my wife wishes she knew
  • Hobbies
    coding and collecting wine, art, money....
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    on the move... why stay in one place?

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  1. I think you have to separate a short-term 'billionaire' / PE scenario from a sustainable long-term market scenario. CU/PSA will get a lot of people psyched up to invest in cards, values will go up and then the floor will eventually drop out... if nothing comes behind it the run will be short.. if something does it might continue. Cohen sees CU the same way Zillow and OpenDoor (iBuyers) see mortgage, title insurance etc.. essentially bolt on value to maximize margin and MORE importantly valuation. but to turn the coin market into a growth market... there is a need for an entity that is legit on quantifying price. eBay or a group that consolidates auction data could do that... NGS/PCGS/CDN etc.. are not credible in this capacity because they are not close to the transaction. The eBay/auction companies also have the picture datasets that ML/AI can consume for grading/authenticity/fingerprint purposes. this real time access to market data would normalize the market and that alone would bring alternative investment types into the market. might lower us prices for a while...
  2. there is a great deal that doesn't make sense from an economic perspective in the US right now... TSLA being the easy example of value being driven by circular logic (higher stock, cheaper capital to invest...) these PE guys are masters at hiding sins and maximizing the pain they sell to the next guy before the story implodes... but if you push all the shenanigans to the side - seeing collecting as a good investment helps the industry and can sustain its growth. ...and my personal view is no one I know sees coin collecting as a good 'financial' investment right now (however it's a great investment in time if you enjoy history)...
  3. cards vs. coins both (cards / coins) have a demographic problem however there has been a turn happening for last couple years in cards--this article outlines a bit of it Sports Cards Values Will Explode In Certain Categories. Here's Why. (garyvaynerchuk.com) you can see how other aspects of the sports economy are pulling the markets value chain together (cards being one aspect). my opinion on the reality of coin collecting (and I know from being beat up here in the past that this forum doesn't want to hear this... ) is that it will continue to erode unless people start to see it as an investment. coin collecting (especially ancients) has an opportunity to drive the same alternative investment value but it's within world history and education (a bit like art--now only if I could hang it on my wall...) also interesting is the economic comparison of world collectible coins vs. US collectible coins--in many ways one could argue that the US market is a bubble and this makes the problem above even worse. some think CU is undervalued (more) but this will likely go thru... if it does I doubt Cohen expects to keep PCGS--HGBL might be a nice home.. supply and demand are wonderful concepts... this will be fun to watch.
  4. Can someone explain how this works to me? I see a lot of graded coins on eBay for very inexpensive prices. Here is an example: 1971-S 1C RD Lincoln Memorial Cent-PCGS MS62RD--372-1 https://ebay.us/GcSSK2 for $9 and FREE shipping. The seller has a lot of these low end graded US coins for sale for very inexpensive prices. It normally costs me > $50 to get a coin graded. Who paid to get these low value items graded? What did they pay to get it graded? If the eBay seller purchased this asset already graded, how much do you suspect they paid given they also have to pay ~$3.5+ for postage and still make a little profit? Given how many of these are listed on eBay it appears that either a lot of people are getting stuck with the grading costs or they are getting coins graded for pennies on the dollar (weak pun intended)--both don't make sense to me--so i must be missing something here.
  5. @vkurtb I've heard that from others 'almost everything that could be put in a slab was'--if that was the case NGC/PCGS would be out of biz... and I agree about PA--there is a little shop outside of annville, pa that has an amazing inventory and all of it just walked into their store (some great late 1700's dollars)
  6. @VKurtB yes, 'survival rate' is much more important than 'mintage'.... in regards to US currency I thought this atlantic article had a couple good facts. here is a great NewYorker article as well... love this part: "America’s assortment of circulating pocket change is anything but immutable. Colonial-era settlers initially had no coins (or bills) of their own. They therefore depended heavily on barter, and conducted cash transactions with British coppers and other foreign coins, especially Spanish reals. (The “dollars” mentioned in Article I of the Constitution were actually eight-real coins, also known as pieces of eight.) British silver coins were scarce in America because Britain, which had little domestic access to precious metals and hoped its colonists would soon get busy shipping treasure in the opposite direction, forbade their export. In 1702, the alchemy-obsessed master of the British Royal Mint, Isaac Newton, melted down and minutely analyzed the coins of a number of countries to determine their exact content. The results of Newton’s assay were used, among other things, to set the bewildering, constantly shifting exchange rates that were a part of daily commercial life in England and America in the early eighteenth century."
  7. I picked this up on eBay recently--it was being marketed as a "US Colonial coin Half Sol, 6 deniers 1721 S". I first thought that it might really be a "France 1 liard" however, it does look a bit different (note the number of jewels in the crown is 9 and the 1 liard appears to be 5 jewels. I think it's definitely a 1/2 Sol and according to Numista they did mint 3.8M of the KM#451.7 . If I'm wrong--please let me know. According to Coinquest, I drastically overpaid (but I love coins from the 1700 so I'm not feeling too bad about shelling out $50 bucks for something worth $2 :-) ) -- it is incredible that a coin with this much history is valued at $2 when the draped bust cents/half-cents draw so much... which brings me to the question. Is this coin a "US Colonial coin" as marketed? I don't think so in reading Notre Dame's site about French Colonial coins used in Louisiana (or Canada). I also don't see it on NGC's list or on that other companies site. What do you think?
  8. I purchased this 1740 British half penny recently. When it arrived in taking a look I said that the "0" looks a lot like a "9" Here is a 1740 https://www.ngccoin.com/price-guide/world/great-britain-1-2-penny-km-579.1-1740-1745-cuid-1155410-duid-1324527 but then I took a look at a 1730 https://www.ngccoin.com/price-guide/world/great-britain-1-2-penny-km-566-1729-1739-cuid-1151862-duid-1324792 and the "0" bleeds into looking like a "9" as well. Here is a good picture of a 1749 https://www.ebay.com/itm/1749-NGC-AU-55-George-II-1-2-Penny-Great-Britain-Colonial-Copper-Coin-20091302C/392940558735 What do you experts think?
  9. got it. thanks. obverses are in even worse shape. uploading if interested.
  10. came by these 2 ancients today... just starting the research. anyone have any quick ideas? thanks.
  11. 1823 Mexico 8 escudos KM#382.2 NGC 1823 was the year Mexico transitioned from a Monarchy to a Republic.
  12. I don't know anything about acoustics but eager to learn how to apply it in this use case. Do you have any material to read on the subject? for those still interested in the camera aspect and remember the company Coinscope here is an interesting expired patent from them: https://patents.google.com/patent/US5133019
  13. identifying a coin is pretty easy using something like tensorflow and just scraping the web for 5 to 10k images, categorizing them and then training on them. like i said, i did that in a few hours (front of coin only) and have it up to about 80% accuracy if the photo uploaded is good. going the next step (date/mint) is a bit more difficult but doable. Face detection then recognition is a well studied field. here is some simple python that will explain the detection part using opencv https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/face-detection-using-python-and-opencv-with-webcam/ once you detect you can narrow against another training set. Using ML to do the same thing with coin dates is straight forward as well-- it just takes time to build the training set (cutting up hundreds or thousands of images, then categorizing them). I just don't have the time or the patience to build that dataset. That's why I was looking for one of the DB's outlined in the second article and they are not easy to come by for download. Taking an easier road would be to do it with OCR and use Tesseract but I found that the font is a problem on most coins and it won't ID them correctly. You could train tesseract and I might try this in the future but I didn't go down that path.
  14. enjoy, if you want to continue to geek out--read this later https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fict.2017.00009/full these databases are hard to find but there was really good work done on this subject by some clever people a few years ago. shows how hard it is to crack the code on the date issue but it has been done before.