GoldFinger1969

I was conversing with some Double Eagle collectors and was told about the Hackney Hoard in England back in 2010. This was before I was really following Saints and Double Eagles. They were found in a garden in Hackney, England. There were 80 DEs from 1854-1913. the coins gradually increase in number across the decades from 1870 to 1909 (13 coins from 1870-9; 14 from 1880-89; 18 from 1890-99; and 25 from 1900-9). The coins were buried by a Jewish family fearing a Nazi Germany invasion of Britain. They had fled Nazi Germany a few years earlier. The coins were buried....family members who knew the last buried location were killed during The Blitz....surviving family members didn't know where the 2 jars of coins were buried. Descendants were tracked down in 2010 and given the coins.

Have GSA Morgans -- CC or non-CC -- seen a spike since 2020 like other moderately-priced coins ? My guess would be yes, but I'll defer to someone more active in that segment.

If oil soars, then we'll know. Until then, it's all just speculation, right ?

My point was that Saints traded at certain premiums within a range over time. It got blown out of the water in 1988-90. Saints were one coin that was targeted for investment $$$; I'm sure there were others that got driven up hugely in price but I don't follow them that closely. The TPGs helped stoke the bubble INADVERTENTLY because with the promise of being able to buy "sight unseen" it was presumed that liquidity would increase exponentially and institutional monies would be able to and willing to buy the coins. If you want to buy the coins but can't, that's as bad as not wanting to buy them. The TPGs were supposed to help accomodate that Wall Street and institutional money. Good word, yes, subsitutable. But trophy mansions in the sky can be created -- new supply -- over time. No more famous art is being increased -- no more supply. But more people today are billionaires than 40 years ago or even 25 years ago or even 10 years ago -- which means alot more demand.

I have to check out the subsectors and what is in them.....how the index is constructed and weighed (I may have done it before but I forgot)....but I agree that you do NOT want a bunch of expensive coins in condition scarcity or overall scarcity (i.e, 1933 Saint) skewing a price index upwards. Whether equal-weighted or dollar-weighted the PCGS 3000 or any other index should focus the bulk on coins that are "affordable" to non-wealthy but serious money investors. An index is supposed to be REPRESENTATIVE of the MARKET, not just focusing on coins that 99.999% will NEVER even CONSIDER buying. Most people will probably NOT buy an MCMVII High Relief but at about $10-$12,000 for an AU-58, it's not impossible for someone to get one even if they have to save up. So to use Saints as an example....I would include an MCMVII High Relief up to AU-58 or MS-63 grade....I would NOT go to MS-65 or above and certainly would not inlcude MCMVII UHR patterns, the 1933 Saint, or even any 1927-D. A coin that is OK for a Type Collection in medium/affordable grades would be my target.

Look at real estate, which is largely replaceable: prices are falling for trophy homes, super-expensive beach houses, skyscraper mansions, etc. There's always more of these being produced (just look at the NYC skyline ). OTOH, unique art pieces seem to be holding up. Can't produce more DaVinci's, Rembrants, Van Gough's, etc. More bidders....no more supply = stable or rising prices.

Regardless, people today know much more about where the stock market is at...interest rates....the economy. In the 1970's or 1980's, it was only those who read The NYT Business Section or The WSJ. That was about it. My father used to get his financial news on the 55-minute mark from commentators on WINS and WCBS-880 here in NY driving home or to work each day. That was it. I can still remember those zero-coupon ads in 1981 when I commuted with him...nobody wanted those 14, 15, 16% interest rates !!!

Good point, but it's all we got. And the Coin Bubble of 1989 was right after PCGS and NGC opened for business. It wasn't the TPGs that were the reason for the spike -- they were a contributing factor -- but the promise of Wall Street and institutional $$$ into the sector. MS-65 common Saints traded at a 500-700% premium to their gold content. The last 20 years or so, it's a 20-100% premium.

Which means, what, for us novices ? Commemoratives actually soared in the 1980's and were the most impacted by the end of the Coin Bubble in 1989....PMs and regular series U.S. coins did NOT do much in the 1980's.

If I bought an MCMVII High Relief coin....and I knew I was paying a premium price.....I would not be shocked if 10 or 20 or 25 year later it fell in price by 50% for my sales purposes or my heirs/estates. It would no dissuade me from making the purchase, either. I think that's a pretty sizeable loss to realize....I would NEVER think a stock or bond mutual fund would lose that over that time horizon (maybe <5 years). I think the high-volatility of > 75% losses is confined to non-PM Small Denomination U.S. coins which could find a demographic imbalance downt he line similar to what stamps endured (though maybe 2008-20 was the bottom). Even here you'd probably figure that 60-75% is the bottom NOW since you're not buying at a bubble peak like 1980, 1989, or 2008.

I think those factors I cited above ARE going to have causality to gold, WC. Note that I disagreed with the up-moves in oil for the various supply shocks. I think the prices would be SUBSTANTIALLY lower and probably wouldn't lead to a $3,000 gold price. But near-$400 oil ? You ask most people here or in other coin or fianancial forums where gold is at if in 2 months Brent/WTI are trading north of $300 and I'll bet nobody is saying less than $2,500 an ounce. So yes, I do think a shock like this -- akin to that of 1979-80 with the Iranian Revolution taking 4 MMboe/d off the market -- would be problematic. One fly in the ointment is that back then 4 MM barrels was about 7% of global demand/supply. The figures above are 3% and 5%, respecitvely. Don't tell the Archbishop of Chicago !! Catholic joke..... But hey, what else have we got to do here on a daily or weekly basis ? Discuss 1-2% price moves in the value of our coins ?

I've seen those "Roman proofs" (satin proofs, as you correctly state) and they aren't horrible but IMO no way as beautiful a finish as on the MCMVII UHRs. The coin is better in Reverse Proof. The fields aren't big enough to take advantage of the proof look, IMO. In other words, the Buffalo and Indian portrait are simply too big for the coin IMO for a great look on proofs...but much better on a Reverse Proof. JMHO.

1982 is right at the time when you just got new, modern, speculative "investors" in this sector. You wouldn't find the same numbers if you went back a few years...or to 1972...or 1962. After 1980 everything was different. So I think that's how they came up with 1982.

Again....I think starting in 1992 would have been seen to be "cherry picking" after the Great 1989-90 Coin Bubble. I think by starting in 1982 you eliminate the 1970's: rampant inflation....chasing of PMs and coins....end of fixed exchange rates....etc. Since those are largely 1-time events not likely or possible to happen again, that's how you get 1982 as a "good" starting point.

I could understand that 50 years ago....or 40 years ago....or even 25 years ago. But with all the information on the internet and financial channels, there is no way anybody should be thinking that today. Sadly, I think it is mostly older people like my father who are no longer able to think clearly or process information.

Wow, the rebound off the 2019-20 lows has been really impressive. We basically wiped out the entiree post-2008 bear market. Let's see if it continues without stimulus checks: https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000 Check out the 10-Year Chart to see the end of the U.S. Coin bear market, but hit the 1970 To Date Chart to see how far we are still down from the bubble spike years. I would guess just looking at the chart that the long-term moving average and trendlines are right about the current level since that massive late-1980's spike has been "absorbed" over time. Eerily reminiscent of the Japanese Stock Bubble which also peaked at the same time.

It depends on how you define "most" of that money. If the cumulative investment I make in coins is let's say $100,000 (including or excluding bullion as an investment, doesn't matter).....and if those $$$ would have gown to $250,000 in a basic balanced mutual fund of stocks & bonds......and let's say in 25 years it is worth $100,000 or $80,000 or even $50,000.....I'm probably not going to care much if I am still alive (because presumably mentally I assumed they'd be "zero" if I ever needed the money, which I better not)....or my heirs/estate would get the coins, in which case whatever they are worth they are ahead of the game. While I would hope my coins would appreciate, I actually ASSUME they will be worth about the same or less (depending on when I bought if it is before or after a big runup) which is why I do NOT consider them investments like stocks and bonds, but rather (depreciating) assets like baseball cards, art, and other tangible "investments" like collector plates or the like. What makes you think that ? Can you give a quick summary of what the Hansen Mega Thread is implying, though I'll try and check it out (if it's really large may take me a while to read) ? I think that even for lesser-heeled "investors" in coins the expectation is that very few are "investing" $$$ that they can't afford to lose money on. I don't think that huge declines of 1980-82 or 1989-90 or 2008-2020 aren't forgotten by anybody who reven remotely uses their head.

So your ideal proof would be something like the MCMVII Ultra High Relief Saint ?

To me growing up, proofs were shiny and reflective. So the 1936-42 Cameos -- though nice -- are different. If someone wants to post one of them that is top-of-the-line to gauge, please do so.

FYI, there are some interesting comments and footnotes leading to more historical documentation on the usage of the Half and Quarter Eagles in Roger's Saints DE book. For instance, talking about the 1917 "gold weight" amnesty , Roger noted that "...the reported redemptions suggest that eagles and half eagles were the primary circulating gold on the west coast, and that quarter eagles played almost no role in daily commerce." Interesting.....

Tom made that point at FUN. The Chinese have been playing fast-and-loose with fair/free trade and copyrights ever since they were admitted to GATT/WTO back in 1999.

Also follows the bursting of a coin and PM bubble. Maybe that is another reason.

Suckers is a bit too harsh. Suckers is folks believing in crypto like some relatives who I found out today had 5-figures in the stuff. No gold, but $30,000 in BitCoin. Unreal. I'll be working on him.

1.2 ounces, right ? I think it's listed in BARRON's weekly gold coin price list.

You don't like the nice-dark look of modern, mirror-like gold proofs ?