GoldFinger1969

They could probably sell some Saints or Liberty's or common Indians if they had a display case explaining their history. Again, I'd bet that most gold buyers don't know about them. I didn't !

Bill.......$2-$3 increase ?

BTW....the 1930-S Saint went for a total of just under $60,000 INCLUDING bp !! So the initial listing asking for $60,000 wasn't that far off the mark, it was the commission that pushed it too high for bidders. 8 bidders were willing to pay $20K or more.

Is it just me or do these kind of "True Views" look like they don't show any luster ? The new GC pics look pretty good. BuffaloHead's pic above also shows shine and luster.

Bill Gross, the former "Bond King" who founded PIMCO, had a complete set of U.S. stamps as far as I know including the "impossible" ones like the Inverted Jenny's. So he'd be famous collector, IMO, at least if you watched "Wall Street Week" in the 1980's and 1990's.

Gretzky may just be a collector via his part-ownership with 2 other gents of a T-206 Honus Wagner card. JEJ strikes me as scholarly and not surprised if he is into coins. A few of our astronomy club members visited him like 20 years ago and he was into space and stuff. The others...who knows ? If Taylor Swift wore a Saint-Gaudens or other classic gold/silver coin as a pendant or something....you'd have hundreds of thousands of people buying in no time. It would be BIGGER than the Wall Street stampede of 1989.

Great find, Zebo. I have a bunch of posts/graphs detailing how gold is peaking in production/supply growth while demand like you cite is increasing. I'm travelling so they'll have to wait but I will post them here or in a similar thread @ NGC. Hundreds of millions of Asians will want gold, not Bitcoin. Ditto Africans and others. South Africa is producing 2/3rds less than she did in 1970. CAPX is 1/2 what it was a decade ago. The metal continues to move into STRONG hands, people who won't sell on a $250 rise but maybe a $1,000 rise.

But "market grading" is influenced by rapid and rising prices which leads to (one form of) gradeflation. Read JA's comments in the 2022 CoinWeek article about 1985 Type Sets.

I thought both of the major TPGs used 3 people around a table.

Good discussion....curious....are any of you familiar with the (in)famous Franklin Gradeflation Thread ATS ?

This was unreal. Everybody thought it would be a bubble but forgot the mintage was too high. I could be wrong, but it appears that when mintages get above 50,000....demand is satiated.

I think these are more cases of high prices than gradeflation. Also, specialization of marketing. At least you the seller/buying know what you are getting for when you sell/buy. 40 years ago, you might be selling a $400 coin for $125 or buying a $125 coin for $400.

13 bidders on that coin in total, including the Stink Bidders ...7 of them willing to pay over $20,000. The rest dropped out once it hit $5,000. NOBODY bid previously at $60,000. Which just proves what my friend The Bonddaddy always says: there are no bad coins, only bad prices !!

It's up for sale again and this time at a lower price it's going to sell. Currently at $41,000: https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1535615/ "This coin is an exceptionally rare date - and out of all of the late date rarities, 1931, 1931-D, 1932 - the 1930-S is by far the rarest. Over the past few years, we have seen the 1930-S break away from the other rarities, as it is now being appreciated more. During the great depression, it is amazing someone kept this coin as a pocket piece. There is not a single 1930-S graded below AU-58 by PCGS or NGC, except this coin."

I've used tham as 1 component in a rise higher -- and I didn't only mean Chinese buyers, but I listed China as one of many countries that couldn't afford any per-capita gold consumption decades ago and NOW can. That pattern is being replicated by countries that in the past bought close to NOTHING...and today they have 3 billion consumers with a middle class of 700 million (growing 30 million a year) and some of that money goes to gold. Check out the per-capita gold chart above, CB. Look at some of the emerging countries like Vietnam or India -- it's nothing. That's what is going to move gold to $3,000 an ounce -- and maybe to $5,000 by 2035.

I disagree that a 5-7% move in gold is alot. Only a few years ago gold moved 5% in a day. Yes, central banks are buying -- but it's not only for monetary reasons, but for retail buyers in the host countries. Look at my Indian graph for example. Regardless of WHO is buying....there is hardly any SELLING. Which means gold has a bid and over time, is going alot higher.

I'm not...I'm saying it's not an investment. Only super-savvy people like you can "invest" smartly and come out ahead, Zad. The average person or newcomer with Get Rich schemes is going to get burned. That's my point.

$2,200 intraday.

Even bullion is highly volatile and does NOT pay you for that volatility with income or interest. It's why gold is a lousy investment vehicle, short- or long-term. It's like running a race -- 100 meter dash or marathon -- with a 15 pound weight attached to one's leg. I do think that gold will work somewhat to make gains since I believe the supply-demand fundamentals the next 5-10 years are very favorable. 5-10% CAGR is possible/likely. But using 30-year ROLLING time periods to eliminate timing bias, gold rarely works to ourperform stocks, bonds, or conventional investments like REITs or private equity.

They sold gold bars months ago -- sold out, as I recall. If anything, I would normally consider this BEARISH for gold as it shows that a mass retailer is selling to Joe and Josephine Six Pack. But gold continues to go up....it's retail and central bank buying combined with NO major selling like by CBs. Gold is in very strong hands. Drops are being bought...corrections erase after a few weeks/months. VERY bullish going forward. $3,000 by $2030.

Gold and/or gold coins are NOT INVESTMENTS !!! As a professional money manager and investment analyst, I can assert UNEQUIVOCABLY that unless you are very lucky or very sharp (like some of our people here) it is virtually impossible to generate stock and bond returns from coins and/or precious metals. Even trophy coins like the 1933 Double Eagle or other trophy coins struggle to generate returns higher than 5-7%, if not lower. First, the starting price tends to be higher because some coins have inelastic demand. Second, there is no dividend/income component to add to the capital gains. While some of our veterans here have made lots of $$$, they are the minority making money (like daytraders) and they tend to be super-smart and at this game for a LONG time. Partly it was a quirk of many of them having bought in the days when the gold and silver prices were fixed and suppressed; also, they got in on commemoratives and small denomination U.S. (or world) coins before the demographic bulge (high demand) kicked in during the 1970's, 1980's, and 1990's. So...make sure that your hobby $$$ or speculation $$$ for gold or PMs or gold coins are SEPARATE from your mutual funds, stocks, bonds, money markets, etc. Mentally, I would write down the money I invest to coins/gold/PM's to ZERO and that way...anything I have in the future is a windfall. I expect my nephew and nieces to sell whatever mutual funds or stocks/bonds I leave them over time. But should I be lucky enough to get an MCMVII HR, I would hope they would keep it and pass it on decades later as I hopefully am able to do.

Well said. I think so many people got fooled by the 1970's 20-fold rise in gold and silver and the huge gains made by gold and silver stocks. It was a once-in-a-lifetime scenario that never repeated. Anybody can leave a bank account or brokerage account to a family relative or friend when they pass on. But a gold coin or small collection...that's something that part of it may be kept and that person will think about you in posterity. It will also stimulate interest in history and numismatics -- to some extent -- as they research the coins.

You make some excellent points: Gold is NOT an investment. If anything, it's a speculation. Buy it as insurance, because you like to collect, something to leave your heirs. NOT to "make money." If a big drop would cause a problem......don't buy. DO NOT use leverage....EVER...but especially on a volatile illiquid asset.

Chart 1 doesn't look like any kind of bubble. Chart 2 shows that gold production is not directly tied to prices, thanks to long FIDs and CAPX decisions. Chart 3 shows that the great producer -- South Africa -- is in decline. Imagine if Saudi Arabia were to show 5% declines in oil production each year. Chart 4 shows gold production back to 1970. It's peaking. What does this all mean ? It means demand is rising every year...and supply is tight....the easiest supply is central bank selling and they aren't doing that anymore, they're buying. This is a prescription for a MASSIVE rise in the gold price -- and I am NOT a gold bug. We saw this once before.....the period up to 1971-74, when the gold price was fixed for decades earlier. That was under the gold exchange standard of Bretton Woods. Now...I don't know if it's closer to 1962 or 1972...but gold is CLEARLY like a beach ball being held under the water line and it's going to rise up. Only question is when. Did you miss out on buying Saints or gold coins at $500/oz 20-25 years ago ? Years from now, they could be saying the same thing about coins in the low-$2,000 range.

Look at how much more buying a fast-growing -- but low income, poor -- country like India is buying today. Look at the long-term buying being absorbed by one country, albeit a large one (the Indian table). It's out-of-date but the figure is now 750-800 tons per year (double the last entry.....25% of annual production today). Now ask yourself....dozens of African countries....dozens of Asian and Central/South American countries....are their little people going to buy Rhodium or Palladium...or something they know for thousands of years......GOLD !!