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Everything posted by GoldFinger1969

  1. Comments on Kurt's talk: (1) Hard to believe saying that PM's are risky is the CONTRARIAN viewpoint. Should be the starting point. Saying that PM's aren't risky is as dumb as saying that stocks don't fluctuate. (2) You simply can't even distort the data to prove that PM's are a conservative, "non-risky" investment. Hard to believe someone would. But the PM crowd is not as financially sophisticated as the larger financial markets/stock market crowd who understand things like rolling returns (they key to non-biased performance reviews). (3) I disagree that Bretton Woods was a failure. It worked for a while coming after the wreckage of WW II. No, fixing exchange rates is not a good thing. But at the time, given the speed that information flowed in the 1950's and 1960's, it was good enough. That's not to say that the duration of recessions/recoveries isn't better under free-floating exhcange rates -- it is. But the cost (pain) of an INTERNAL adjustment to economic disloations, recessions, or exogenous events is much higher under fixed exchange rates and/or a gold standard. (4) I think information can be trusted from various sources, even the sell-side and salesmen.....just verify it and cross-check for accuracy. (5) "Insider trading" is very complex. Be careful about distinguishing LEGAL and ILLEGAL material non-public information. (6) I think anybody not smart enough to realize that PM's are risky is going to be lost talking about M2 money supply, NOW accounts, and the other stuff that Kurt and I and other Economics degree folks have studied in-depth. But maybe his crowd was alot smarter ? (7) I wouldn't have focused as much on some of the hucksters and frauds promoting PM's. But that's just me. (8) Great point that Keynesianism works -- but for China and India, where "stuff" is made. VERY prescient point then, more relevant today. (9) Glad you made a great recovery from something as serious as a cerebral hemmorage. Overall, I think the talk was very good, substance-wise . Kurt's speaking style is good, also. For someone like me, it's second nature the topics Kurt talked about: money supply, rates of return, etc. However, I wonder how much of this went over heads of the senior citizen who bought some PMs in the last 10 years and didn't know what he was doing. I would have included more charts and return tables showing how poor coins and/or PM's do over sustained periods. These are SPECULATIONS -- NOT investments !! I would have included some charts that showed how volatile PM's are since the early-1970' many people keep chasing the returns of the 1970's and 1980's in PM's and coins/numismatics....rolling returns for PMs, Stocks, Bonds, Cash (pre-1971 and post-1971)....and the general tendency of PM's to overshoot to extremes on both the upside and downside. But overall, a good presentation, Kurt. Have you ever spoke at or considered something for FUN ?
  2. The hosting company must have the data to confirm, but the site switch a few years back seemed to really cause lots of people to leave. The site wasn't as user-friendly. Some more color indicating active and updated threads wouldn't hurt.
  3. Has anybody bought any numismatic or gold bullion substitute Saints lately ? Was curious about pricing.......
  4. I think more people could discover Ebay, HA, GC, and other online auctions. I'd be curious as to new sign-ups for HA and GC since March compared to pre-Covid.
  5. I'm just back from a few days of star gazing, so I have some catch-up. Might take me a few days (longer ?) to see all the videos so anybody/everybody feel free to chime in before me. I will get to them, though. They both look great.
  6. Looks fantastic, I'll watch and listen as soon as I can get through it in one sitting. Nice job, Ross !
  7. Jtryka, that's a bit simplistic, IMO: (1) Real wages IN THE AGGREGATE started to level off (and fall) about 1967. That's about the time that global trade started to take off and also about the time that Western Europe and Japan were rebuilt after WW II. A paper was written on this in the early-2000's by Robert Gordon. Trade may have helped in the aggregate GDP-wise, but it hurt wide swaths of the middle class. (2) While those wages IN THE AGGREGATE may have stagnated or rose at a much slower pace, individual mobility in the United States is still far greater than in other countries, including those with lower Gin ratios of inequality. (3) Returns on invested capital (stocks, bonds) account for most of the rising inequality. Sadly, the political ruling class has demonized stock investing and thus cost many Americans a chance to increase wealth. (4) Wealth inequality would drop if the stock market cratered but we wouldn't be better off. If you cut Jeff Bezos' and Warren Buffet's wealth by 75%, the same drop for individuals (stocks, mutual funds, 401K's, and pensions) would make them worse off, not better. These trends are visible in many OECD countries, not just the United States. A rigid currency or gold standard would NOT have saved 1 million auto jobs since 1973. It just would have depressed GDP growth elsewhere. The re-emergence of Western Europe and Japan after WW II was inevitable, as was the collapse of communism and the emergence of labor supply and production from China, Asia, etc.
  8. Jtryka, Kurt: As you are both probably aware, economies not only have natural boom-and-bust cycles but they also have exogenous events that affect the economies (housing bubbles, oil price spikes, wars, financial panics, stock market rises and falls, etc.). These can reverberate to the larger economy. The question do we make the adjustments ? Are they enforced through the old price/wage paradigm and INTERNAL measures (i.e., the Philips Curve) or are we able to "dissipate" the effects via floating exchange rates and other EXTERNAL adjustments. Because wages and prices are sticky to the downside, the adjustment process is more difficult through that path. Hence, why inflation and devaluation have been the preferred political means to effect the adjustment. These discussions are critical to understanding what is going on with the Euro and the EU. The entire question focuses on the so-called "Denominator Effect" which has led some to state that enforced austerity is self-defeating as FALLING nominal GDP leads to a RISING debt burden relative to real GDP.
  9. Yup....I believe the 1907 HR's were selling for $30-$35 immediately for those who wanted mint conditioned coins without waiting line, through the mails, etc. Same thing for buying the later, non-High Relief dates. You could flip it right away for $25-$30. Philadelphia and NYC wealthy collectors would often employ "runners" to get them the coins or other specialty novelties. I suspect that once there was talk about --1930 or 1931 (BOE devalued the pound that year) -- that the U.S. might leave the gold standard, wise dealers realized that either the price of the underlying metal would rise and/or actual mintage of Double Eagles and Eagles might cease since very little was in circulation. Good analogy with the 1963 silver dollars !
  10. Israel Switt reportedly went to the Philadelphia Mint daily or almost daily. The employees there gave his daughter Joan free shiny coins. 30 years later, he was able to take his grandsons on VIP tours. Clearly, the political appointees and higher-ups at the Mint and Treasury may not have liked him, but the day-to-day people there had no problem with him. If they had, he would have been banned from the Mint or at least not had VIP access and treatment for decades.
  11. FYI, for those who didn't read the book, Louis Comparette is mentioned numerous times as helping some museums and individuals get some of the Saints "hot off the press."
  12. The Austrian School of Economics has produced some wonderful free-market thinkers: Von Mises, Hayek, etc. Many great American economists overlap them (i.e., Milton Friedman). However, the Austrian School was developed in a relatively "closed" economy time period where the adjustments to external dislocations or internal dislocations was through rising/falling inflation, output, employment. With a gold standard and fixed exchange rates and very little global trade compared to today, economies were easier to predict. I think even the old Austrians would admit that a world of comparative trade exchanges, free-floating currencies, and central bank monetary backstops (WITHOUT inflation !) are a different world. Heck, the world has changed since I was a Fed Watcher in the 1980's watching the Thursday 4:30 PM release of the monetary aggregates.
  13. Roger, do you have more of the Treasury orders for Saints similar to that for the 1932's ? Very interesting to deduce that only about 175 coins reached the public. I wonder if more hit the public during The Roaring Twenties between a better economy and more numismatic interest away from The Depression. That was a really fascinating section, great job !
  14. I don't recall that section, I'll re-hit it. No 1917s, 1918s, or 1919s. I guess the U.S. didn't need gold coins with world trade collapsed during WW I. Maybe the biggest demand for coins (not bars) was from banks in Axis countries.
  15. Back to Saints......reading Roger's books, I was suprised by the lack of (numismatic) demand for the coins. I believe that the 1931 or 1932 Saint had a complete listing of all who ordered from the Treasury; including one mega-order of 50 coins I believe only like 125 were requested. I realize The Depression had started but you would think at least a few hundred, if not thousands, would have interest in the new year but I guess not.
  16. I can't recall seeing any that were NOT graded MS, though they are pretty rare. If you don't see them on Ebay, they probably don't exist. See a few on GC and HA from time-to-time. Have a 1931 X Vatican MS65 that I won at Heritage a while back.
  17. Kurt, we have that in common....I bought a few Vatican 1930's gold coins, most are about 1/4 ounce or a bit under. Looking to add more in time.
  18. You didn't know if the bank you put your $$$ in would fold overnight. You knew nothing of the bank's solvency, even if you lived up the block, let alone if you were in a territory or state 1,000 miles away. Granted, most banks were local but many banks were just beginning to be "tied together" financially as the telegraph allowed transfers between banks to take place within minutes or hours instead of days or weeks.
  19. Why suspended in 1923 ? When resumed -- 1930's ? Were the tours ended because of violence related to the Palmer Raids and anarchist attacks ?
  20. The Mint's presentation at the ANA and their court sumnations kept using the phrase "stolen" -- not swapped -- as in taken. Clearly, Izzy Switt broke into the Mint and 7-year old Joan Langbord used her small size to squeeze into the cashier's cage or Vault F and grab the coins. They wanted to go on the lam, but instead fenced the goods.