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Someone's bitter pill - the things that shouldn't have been graded.

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Revenant

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I have a saved search still on eBay for "ngc Netherlands 10G," so I get notified when one pops up without having to search myself all the time. I continue to hope an 1885 or 1886 will pop up one day to help me complete that set. But... 90% of the time I get an email and it's an 1875... or an 1877.

I just got an email for my 10G search and it's an AU55 in a new holder, and I just can't help but shake my head and think, someone was REALLY disappointed when that posted the grade results.

The 1875 accounts for over half the total mintage of the Willem III 10Gs with over 4.1 million made. It is insanely common. You can almost always find 2-3 in gem uncirc grades, already graded by NGC, for little premium attached to the grade/ the coin being graded. In that context, an AU55 is sad. It shouldn't have been graded. The coin is established as genuine, but will carry no premium over melt.

And you know how this probably happened. Someone saw this thing, thought it had nice, clean fields and few marks and thought it would probably get a 65 or 66... and they missed the rub in the high points... and there's about $40 they'll never get back out of that coin.

Alternatively someone just thought a 145 year old European gold coin had to be rare and valuable and worth grading! Totally! For sure! - Not so much.

On a similar / related note I've been seeing a lot of Venezuelan and Zimbabwe notes popping up lately in the 55 to 65 range. As more of these things get graded however it's increasingly clear that anything below 66 is just junk that shouldn't have been graded. And it feels weird to say that - because it feels strange to say that a 65 is effectively junk. But the 66s, and 67s and 68s are so common and that makes the 65s so undesirable that they actually sell for less than the discounted bulk grading fees - a complete disaster for someone submitting to resell.

There are exceptions, of course. Like for the traveller's checks I recently graded a 63-65 is pretty solid and a 66 is a top pop. But for a 2nd or 3rd Zimbabwe dollar note a 65 is an instant, guaranteed loss - just like that AU55 1875 10G. I suppose the P72 is one exception I shouldn't ignore though. lol

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On a similar / related note I've been seeing a lot of Venezuelan and Zimbabwe notes popping up lately in the 55 to 65 range. As more of these things get graded however it's increasingly clear that anything below 66 is just junk that shouldn't have been graded. And it feels weird to say that - because it feels strange to say that a 65 is effectively junk. But the 66s, and 67s and 68s are so common and that makes the 65s so undesirable that they actually sell for less than the discounted bulk grading fees - a complete disaster for someone submitting to resell.

True but at one time they may have been Top Pops, let's say, and then the market got saturated possibly due to the low grades bringing in decent money and large sellers submitting large numbers of the same notes hoping to cash in. Then you get large numbers of 67 - 69 graded notes and even more graded lower and in the end not enough collectors to continue to pay premiums for even the 68 graded notes. That's what I'm seeing with the Ukrainian notes anyway. Almost every modern note is not difficult to find in a high grade, same with NCLT and moderns here, and playing the grading game with moderns is good in the beginning and usually terrible anytime after that. If Notehobby or BNW submitted 20 or so of those Traveller's checks, could be trouble for 65's & 66's.

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I suppose the P72 is one exception I shouldn't ignore though. lol

That one is a head scratcher, with 44 at 66 or above and 74 total graded (including replacements), I just don't get it. (shrug) And it's killing me because I would like to get one for my signature set, as you know. 

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19 minutes ago, Fenntucky Mike said:

If Notehobby or BNW submitted 20 or so of those Traveller's checks, could be trouble for 65's & 66's.

Probably would be given how lean the demand is for that series as graded items.

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20 hours ago, Fenntucky Mike said:

That one is a head scratcher, with 44 at 66 or above and 74 total graded (including replacements), I just don't get it. (shrug) And it's killing me because I would like to get one for my signature set, as you know. 

Yeah… I don't get it either. Every other 3rd dollar note is common as sand on the beach in uncirc condition and you can get a 66 EPQ or a 68 EPQ for $15-30. For that one note they're hard to find and you have people asking $270-500 for a 66 EPQ. I'm far from ignorant about that set or that series but I've never run across anything that would tell me why that 1 note is so dang hard to get. (shrug) Interestingly, both of the two small images on that note are unique to that note and are not repeated anywhere else in that series, where most of the other ones are re-used several times.

If I don't see a Venezuelan P-104, P-112, P-113, and/or P-114 pop up soon and I stock up some spending money I might try to talk myself into holding my nose closed and biting that bullet just to have my 3rd dollar set complete... With my 1st dollar set soon to be 100%, my 2nd dollar set 100%, my 4th dollar at 100% and my new dollars at 100%, I feel like it's going to be getting harder to ignore that 96% on the 3rd dollars...

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