Find out how the summer doldrums have affected the collecting market, and how this year's World's Fair of Money Convention is poised to turn things around.
With the prospects of the ANA World's Fair of Money Convention this month, the nation's
most active dealers and serious collectors will be ready for an extravaganza. There
are major auctions just before and during the show and, if you are looking for any
kind of coin, this is the time and place to find it. The market should be back to
a breakneck pace as the summer slowdown comes to an end. With the metals appearing
to be stronger overall, the opportunities for rising FMV prices look endless. The
Denver area is a great place for numismatics and is not that far away from the home
of the ANA in Colorado Springs. This should be a show to remember.
Most dealers have monumental needs for their customers and the ANA Convention should
provide dealers with many of their want-listed coins. There is plenty of money ready
to be spent for the "right" coins and nearly every series has some degree
of popularity. The degree of popularity depends on the FMV for every coin in relation
to the number of coins available within a grade range. The census reports help numismatists
immensely in gathering information pertaining to potential availability. It is all
about percentages and we are finding more collectors doing research in their area
of expertise. In fact, we are finding more collectors becoming as expert in their
fields as the specialized dealers.
Now that the summer months are waning, dealers are once again concentrating on the
coin business. The recent lethargic market was a result of too many major players
(dealers and collectors) taking time off from the rituals of a grinding market.
With so many numismatists out of the market, it makes sense that some series could
and did suffer as a result. Areas that had market momentum ($5 and $10 Gold Indians
for example) before the summer began, have drifted aimlessly the past six weeks.
Of course, we are referring to generic dates. However, even some of the better dates
have fallen as the higher prices actually brought some coins into the market and
temporarily satisfied the current demand. Now we are seeing some of these more common
dates being offered in the wholesale arena on a daily basis.
The FMV for the common date $5 Indian has dropped from $4,470 in MS63 in June to
the current $3,310. In MS64, it was $6,250 versus today's $4,500. Granted, most
of the coins available are the most common, the 1909 D, but some of the P Mint issues
have also dropped as a result of the market losing energy. On the positive side,
we have seen several of the key dates move higher as serious collectors try to locate
specific dates to complete their collections. Of course, the 1909 O being the most
valuable issue of this series and relatively not available above MS63, we have seen
a major push to draw coins out of hiding over the past two months. The MS64 has
moved from $129,380 to the current $143,750. More impressive is the MS65 which has
seen the FMV more than double as a couple of major dealers are consistently trying
to outbid each other for a coin for their customer. The June FMV was $237,500 and
today it is $487,500. Wow, if you only had a couple of these in your portfolio!
The $10 Indian series has suffered from the same malaise of the past few weeks.
Indifference has decelerated its momentum and we have seen the common dates fall
to recent lows. Although, the $10 Indian had not moved up at the same pace as the
$5 Indian. In June, the MS63 $10 Indian had an FMV of $2,250 while today it is showing
$2,160. The MS64 fell from $3,240 to $2,940. In this series, the dates most often
offered at discounts are typically 1926 and 1932.
As a collector, you have to determine if these are a legitimate downturn in the
marketplace with supplies more than enough to satisfy current demand or, as we suggest,
just indifference to the overall market during the summer months. If it is indifference,
then today's levels will present good buying opportunities for the future. If supplies
continue to be available in the wholesale market, then prices will remain tenuous.
If the market does turn around and start to head back up, this will be a good time
to look for the common dates at current levels that will have a little more premium
to them when the market is stronger. Lower census coins, or extra eye appeal, are
always good requisites to follow when purchasing coins.
A couple of areas that have held strong through the summer are gold-related as well.
The early issues of the $5 and $10 coins remain very active at higher FMV levels.
Some market makers continue to raise their buy prices in an effort to corral any
of the available coins in VF to Mint State grades. The coins must be accurately
graded and cannot have any negative eye appeal. One of the reasons many of these
coins are moving higher is that it is difficult to find coins with these requirements.
There are no more than a handful of coins available across all the grades and the
owners of these available coins will want substantially more than the money being
offered. Each time the buyers move their prices higher, the potential sellers do
the same thing. We are speaking about very rare coins with low original mintages,
low survival rates, and low census accountability. Most of these coins are in the
strong hands of collectors that do not have a need to sell or the inclination to
take profits at this time. When these coins do become available, usually in one
of the major auctions, there is very aggressive competition for them. Simply take
a look at the upcoming auctions and see for yourself.
A comparison of FMV prices from June of this year shows how this market has risen
consistently for these early issues. The $5 Small Eagle Bust Right has increased
from $34,380 in AU50 to $38,130 today; in MS60, the FMV has jumped from $56,880
to $62,500. The higher grades seem to advance in more dramatic fashion. In MS63,
the FMV was $142,500 and now it is up to $165,630. In some cases, when these higher
grade coins do come on the market in a major auction, the competition becomes so
fierce that the listed prices seldom resemble the final price realized. At least
this helps us to establish the FMV for the particular issue.
The early $10s are finding higher FMV prices nearly as potent. The AU50 $10 Capped
Bust was listed at $49,810 in June and now it has an FMV of $54,380. In MS60, it
moved from $91,880 to the current FMV of $93,130. In MS63, the June price was $240,500
and now it is a sizzling $251,550. We don't know where the overall market is headed,
but with the current economic atmosphere aligned with all the dealers and collectors
participating in numismatics, it is an easy hypothesis that we are still headed
to a higher overall coin market.
This article is a guest article written by:
The thoughts and opinions in the piece are those of their author and are not necessarily
the thoughts of the Certified Collectibles Group.